Hit the Mat 5.18.09: Evans vs Machida

Posted by Matt McEwen on 05.18.2009

For the first time in the UFC’s history, two undefeated fighters will meet in the Octagon with a title on the line. 411’s Matt McEwen discusses Saturday’s title bout between Evans and Machida, and tells you why you need to settle in for long, five round fight.

It's Monday, there's a big fight on Saturday, so it's time to kick of the week with hype and analysis.

I'm of course talking about Rashad Evans defending the light heavyweight title in Las Vegas against the top contender, Lyoto Machida. It's the first time two undefeated fighters have faced off inside the Octagon with a title on the line, and it's one of the rare times that the champion is coming in as the underdog. Add in the fact that both Evans and Machida are hated by most fight fans but also have small, vocal and loyal groups of followers, and you have all the elements for an explosive main event Saturday night.

That is, you have all the elements except for the fighting styles.

When they say "styles make fights", they're not lying. Putting Mickey Ward in the ring against Arturo Gatti was a guaranteed action fight, putting Chuck Liddell in the cage against a wrestler was a near guarantee of a great KO and putting Evans and Machida against each other is a recipe for...patience?

Both fighters are great, without a doubt. Evans has gone from a doughy, undersized heavyweight competitor on The Ultimate Fighter, to a lay and pray light heavyweight who relied heavily on his wrestling to counter balance his weak technical striking to his latest incarnation as the sport's KO king. His stand up style is slightly unorthodox, but his timing is impeccable and he has used that to it's greatest advantage in developing his counter punching style. Unlike a lot of counter punches - Liddell, Anderson Silva - Evans has shown the ability to goad fighters into slug fests against their better judgment. A well spoken, relatively humble guy outside of the cage, Evans morphs into an obnoxious ass in the cage, dropping his hands and seemingly hot dogging throughout many of his fights. The hot dogging pisses opponents off, and the dropped hands invite punches, but Evans is able to use his speed and great head movement to avoid damage and launch counter attacks that often spell doom for his opponents.

Evans' biggest strength may be that his trainer - Greg Jackson - just might be the best in the sport at preparing his fighters. Jackson has put together an elite camp of fighters, which might be the main reason behind his team's success. Evans regularly trains with fellow light heavyweight Keith Jardine, himself a legitimate title contender. Would you like to be that the elusive and awkward Jardine has spent a fair bit of time over the last few months mimicking Machida's style? Evans also mentioned in a recent interview on ESPN.com's MMA Live that a K1 fighter was brought in whose style is close to that of Machida. Of course, being used to that style and being able to deal with Machida implementing it are two different beasts.

The second thing about Jackson that helps set his fighters apart is his ability to game plan against the sport's elite fighters. Evans and Jardine almost always come in as underdogs against the best of the division, yet they both have beaten Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, and Evans in particular never looks overwhelmed in the cage. That calmness has often allowed him to dictate the terms of the fight, and if he is able to do so against Machida, he will be near victory right off the bat.

Of course, knowing what Machida is doing is not hard to figure out. Coming up with a game plan of how to put him off his game and take him out of his comfort zone is also not hard. Actually do it in the cage when it counts has proven to be a different story.

With the knock against him that he is a boring fighter after going to less than thrilling decisions in his initial UFC fights, most people had the idea that if you push forward and punch hard, you can force him to fight and therefore beat him. Sokoudjou made his UFC debut against Machida, and was put into the fight coming of scintillating KO wins in PRIDE over good competition, and was thought to be the man who would expose Machida. The result was a dominant victory for the Brazilian, that ended with a beautiful arm triangle. Next up, Tito Ortiz was supposed to end his UFC career on a high note by exposing Machida's wrestling game as too weak to deal with the stronger wrestlers in the division. The result was Machida shrugging Ortiz off like a child, and scoring takedowns of his own. Ortiz did catch Machida in a late triangle, and while it wasn't enough to pull out a win, it left people wondering just how good Machida is on the ground. If he took on a BJJ black belt who could hit hard on his feet, then surely Machida would at least have a hard time in the fight. Thiago Silva fit that description to a T, yet ended up out cold at the end of the first round from a supposedly light hitting Machida.

So, how does Evans game plan against a guy who has defied all expectations of failure?

First, he has to know that his hot dogging style most likely won't work to entice Machida into a slug fest, but he definitely should not stop that, for two reasons. First, there is a confidence factor in that, if he comes out very serious and out of character, Machida gains in confidence, knowing that Evans had to change his style to deal with him. Secondly, Evans' style most likely has an effect on score cards. Showing no fear and disregard for his opponent's power could be a factor in deciding tight rounds.

Secondly, he has to utilize his wrestling. Given Machida's size, strength and "anti-wrestling" ability, Evans probably shouldn't expect takedowns to come easily, or even at all, but Ortiz showed that he was able to initiate clinch battles and scrambles by shooting. Given Evans recent shows of stamina, he should be able to keep shooting deep into the fight. While Evans' guard game is mostly unproven in competition, he should be prepared to be taken down himself, but the potential benefit of forcing Machida out of his comfort zone far outweighs that risk.

And finally of course, Evans has - against all expectations earlier in his career - given himself a chance against anyone by virtue of his enormous punching power. It's doubtful that someone as elusive as Machida is going to give someone with his power too many chances, but if Evans uses his speed manages to get a few shots in...well, it may take only one. Unfortunately, it is this mix that could make for a boring fight. Machida is going to be Machida - elusive, countering when attacked, darting in for quick combinations and getting outside again - only probably more so out of respect for Evans' power. Of course, they said that about Thiago Silva, but Evans is certainly a different beast.

And that is why I suspect Machida will win a long, drawn out but very technically interesting five round decision.