The Blueprint 6.25.09: Slaying The Dragon

Posted by Patrick Mullin on 06.25.2009

Since defeating Rashad Evans for the UFC Light heavyweight Title, Machida-Mania has been running wild through out the world of MMA. In the debut edition of The Blueprint, 411’s Patrick Mullin discusses the strengths and weaknesses of Lyoto Machida, and breaks down the odds to tell you who has the best chance at defeating him. Check out the full column for all the details!

Welcome readers! I'm Patrick Mullin and this is...(drumroll please) THE BLUEPRINT! We're going to take the top fighters in MMA every week and break down just what you can and need to do in order to beat them, and we're starting with the reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Yes, even Machida has flaws that can be exploited.



There may not be a more perfect fighter in Mixed Martial Arts than the one and only Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. He has it all. He's the least hit and taken down fighter in MMA history. Machida has accurate strikes with the ability to KO with one clean connection on his opponent. He possesses a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, has an array of unorthodox karate sweeps coming from all angles, a sumo background allowing for optimum use of balance and open hand strikes, and an immaculate conditioning regimen.

However no man is unbeatable, and even Machida has holes in his game that can be taken advantage of by the right opponent. Impossible you say? Not quite.

1) Open Chin: Lyoto is in my mind the greatest defensive wizard MMA has ever seen to date. However, he does have a fatal opening in his defense that the right opponent can take advantage of. Any time Lyoto throws a combination of punches, elbows, or open hand strikes he does so while sticking his chin straight up in the air. Lyoto throws combinations that are generally punctuated only by one or two hard blows while the others are fast but not very heavy blows used more to deter his opponent from striking back and luring them into a false sense of security believing he's not a hard striker.

The problem with this is that a guy with a solid chin and heavy hands is likely to exploit this. Rashad Evans you say? The problem with Evans is that he was completely thrown by being at a tremendous disadvantage in speed, much the way he was against Forrest Griffin, and his boxing tends to get sloppy allowing Machida to connect with heavy shots as soon as Rashad thought it was safe to open up.



The ideal fighter to exploit this situation is former light heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Jackson has shown an incredible ability to withstand punishment, eating a dozen knees from a prime Wanderlei Silva before dropping, and has also shown tremendous power in his hands with knockouts of Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, and Kevin Randleman among others. If Rampage recognizes the pattern in Machida's combinations he can exploit it and FINALLY we'll see what kind of chin Lyoto possesses.

2) Sloppy Ground and Pound: Machida is not an aggressive fighter by nature, but when his opposition is hurt and dropped he pounces like a primal animal on them. However his relentless nature in trying to pound out his opposition can leave him prone to winding up in danger.

Against Tito Ortiz while pounding Tito from within his guard, Machida used his left hand and arm to balance himself and attempt to control Tito while striking with his right hand and elbow. Tito was able to hold onto the arm of Machida and use it to secure a triangle choke which he nearly finished with and lost the hold due to trying to transition to an arm bar from a bad position to do so. Tito is hardly known for his submission game, and to be able to pull off a triangle and lock it up is a sign that Machida is clearly vulnerable to a well schooled submission grappler. Had he allowed that opportunity to someone like say, Renato "Babalu" Sobral, its doubtful he could have gotten out of it as he did against Tito.



3) Clinch Game: Aside from the near submission, Tito was able to find his greatest success in utilizing the Muay Thai clinch, often referred to as the "double collar tie" or "plum position". Machida's style is dependent on him being able to move freely and unobstructed. When you control his movement via the clinch, he is clearly uncomfortable and is vulnerable to powerful knee strikes to the head and body. Ortiz is again not known for his clinch game, but he was able to utilize it at times against Machida and score with hard knees.



Against someone like a Rampage Jackson who has a tremendous amount of physical strength, or someone like Mauricio "Shogun" Rua who has won a Muay Thai Championship in his native Brazil, a weakness like that could be exploited into the first blemish on the currently perfect record of Machida.

4) Footwork: Machida is a southpaw, which is fairly uncommon amongst the top 205 pounders in the world. Against southpaws, an orthodox fighter's footwork must be used in the opposite manner that its used to. With a southpaw opponent, it is absolutely crucial that the orthodox fighter keep his lead foot on the outside of the southpaw's lead foot in order to dictate the footwork and movement of his opponent. No one has seemed to key in on this against Machida, and part of that has to do with substandard coaches in the corner. Machida deserves a ton of credit for being able to dictate his opponent's movement throughout every round of his career, but it remains to be seen how he will react when someone is actually attempting to answer his footwork with intelligent footwork of their own and move him into their power striking range rather than vice versa.



Forrest Griffin is probably the 2nd best in the division in terms of footwork behind only the champion. His footwork allowed him to constantly be in position to land a plethora of leg kicks against a flat footed Rampage looking to slug, and allowed him to constantly beat Shogun to the punch in their memorable fight some years back. Forrest's footwork allows him to constantly be in position to throw kicks and jabs with precision accuracy and set up combinations.

Those four aspects are the keys to victory for any fighter to beat Lyoto Machida. Of course, that remains much easier said than done as Machida is undefeated and against some of the very best in the world no less. So let's break down my odds as to who stands the best chance to beat him.

Who Can Beat Him?



Quentin Jackson 3:1 - Rampage's one punch KO power and tremendous chin make him a nightmare for just about anyone, especially if he decides to add in his excellent wrestling pedigree to work some ground and pound. However, he is vulnerable against men with superior technical skills as seen in his fight with Forrest, and Machida is a better technician than Griffin.

Forrest Griffin: 4:1 - Griffin's much improved technical skills since his TUF Season 1 win culminating in his light heavyweight championship victory make him stiff opposition against anyone. The real weakness in Forrest's game is that he isn't a power striker and against Machida its crucial that he respects your power so that he'll limit his own opportunities. He won't do that with Forrest.

Shogun Rua 5:1 - Shogun's knees are lethal and his submission game features a black belt in BJJ, and he's also shown power in his hands as of late with his left hook KO of Chuck Liddell. However, his stamina remains a question mark and against Machida you're going to have to dictate the pace if you want to beat him. A weak gas tank won't allow for that.



Renato "Babalu" Sobral 5:1 - While we may never see this fight due to the circumstances regarding Sobral's release from the UFC, it would be a fun battle between an ultimate striker and an ultimate grappler. I firmly believe Babalu is second to none in submission grappling and he could conceivably beat Machida on the ground, but Babalu is seemingly inept against the great strikers on his feet and would be in trouble as soon as the bell rang. Factor in Machida's excellent takedown defense and it's a longshot that Babalu beats Machida.



Anderson "The Spider" Silva 6:1 - Anderson has shown that he's not against fighting the best at 205 in addition to 185. He's also a southpaw which would negate some of Machida's unorthodox footwork that seems to confound orthodox fighters so much. Anderson however seems disinterested as of late and against a guy who's content to play defense and pick his shots Anderson may go in with an "I can care less" attitude since it wouldn't be his title on the line. My attitude here may change based on his performance against Forrest Griffin at UFC 101, but as of right now his seemingly indifferent attitude makes him a major question mark against Lyoto.