The Rear Naked Column 07.08.09: The Money Is In the Rematch

Posted by Samer Kadi on 07.08.2009

UFC 100 is coming up this weekend and it’s arguably the biggest event in MMA history. Headlining the show is one of the biggest rematches in UFC history as Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir lock horns once again. Who will come out victorious and walk away the UFC undisputed heavyweight champion? Join 411’s Samer Kadi as he breaks down this Saturday’s main event.

Last week I started a two part column discussing the most significant events in UFC history. The follow up was due this week, but after watching the UFC 100 countdown show, I had to put it on hold. Coming into this week, the fight I was looking forward to the most was GSP-Alves. Georges St. Pierre is one of my favorite fighters and quite frankly he's just a joy to watch inside the Octagon. Thiago Alves is a beast and I truly believe he's the biggest test of GSP's career. In my mind, this was the true main event.

But the countdown show changed my view. It's obvious the UFC wants Lesnar-Mir to be the show's biggest attraction and quite frankly they've succeeded in hyping it as such. I freely admit that I'm sold.

They did a terrific job of giving the viewers the back story. They showed parts of their first encounter, with both Mir and Lesnar providing something similar to play by play. They broke down the fight, what was going through their minds, what were they looking to do, the mistakes they've made (mainly Lesnar), and interestingly enough they were both displeased with Steve Mazzagatti's job.

This upcoming fight more than any other proves Jeremy Lambert's favorite saying: "The money is in the rematch".



The main story behind the first match was that Lesnar came out strong, dominated, took Mir down, and pounded on him until a questionable call by Steve Mazzagatti stopped the action. The fight was restarted, Lesnar knocked Mir down but got over anxious and got caught in a kneebar.



Nobody knew it at the time, but this was the best case scenario for the UFC. Brock Lesnar proved he's legit while Mir resurrected his career. And perhaps most importantly, people wanted a rematch. Brock, his camp and his followers claim this was largely due to inexperience (and they're probably right) and that Mir got lucky (that remains to be seen). While Mir will tell you he did it once and can do it again (and he might be right as well). This is the main selling point of a rematch, at least in my opinion. Did Mir really get lucky in the fight and Brock was simply too inexperienced or is he really that good and can pull it off again?

People figured these two will eventually square off again at some stage in their careers, but few could have imagined the rematch would be taking place in the main event of the biggest show in UFC history. Who would have thought that Randy Couture would return to the company only to lose his title to Lesnar, who was only 2-1 in his MMA career? Who would have thought that Frank Mir would orchestrate one of the biggest upsets in UFC history as he became the first man to stop Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira to win the interim title?

To make things better, Mir and Lesnar were first supposed to fight at UFC 98 with Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans headlining UFC 100. Unfortunately -or in this case, fortunately- Frank Mir got hurt and the fight had to be delayed and ended up taking the main event spot at UFC 100 with Rashad Evans taking on Lyoto Machida at UFC 98.

And here we are seventeen months later, with their first fight still fresh on everybody's minds, Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar will go toe to toe at UFC 100 to determine who will become the UFC undisputed heavyweight champion. If St. Pierre Vs Penn was the most anticipated rematch in UFC history (or at least billed as such) then this one isn't too far off.

It's simple really, just ask yourself this: would you have been that excited had it not been for their first match?

The trash talk has been tremendous. Mir doesn't miss an opportunity to rub the defeat in Lesnar's face. Lesnar on the other hand, in a funny albeit slightly choreographed segment on the UFC countdown show, got pissed at having to watch himself tap over and over and stormed out of the room.

Both guys displayed their usual confident, cocky and arrogant personalities, taking jabs at each other on numerous occasions without going over the top with the trash talk (BJ Penn I'm looking at you). It really added to my enjoyment of the entire build up.

In many people's eyes, this fight comes down to technique Vs strength. And this may very well turn out to be the case.

But in my opinion, the outcome of the fight will depend on two factors: How much has Brock's submission defense improved since their first fight, and is he confident enough to take the fight to the ground once again? How much has Mir's striking really improved and is the Nogueira fight a good indicator?

In Mir's own admission, if Brock decides to take the fight to the ground, there's not much he can do to stop him. So in short, Brock has the advantage of dictating where the fight takes place. Now after what happened in their first fight, does Brock really want to be with Mir on the ground? And after his performance against Nogueira, is standing up with Mir a good idea? It might seem like a "pick your poison" scenario for the heavyweight champ.

However I think it goes both ways. Let's face it, while Mir looked tremendous against Big Nog, he was helped by the fact that Nogueira looked utterly horrendous. Yes the guy has a knack of taking a beating, but never has he looked so stiff and flat in his entire career. So while I'm sure Mir's striking has improved tremendously, I'm not sure it's as good as the Nogueira fight made it appear. Make no mistake about it, he will have the more technical striking against Brock but will that be enough? What happens if he runs through a big right hand from Lesnar? That's something none of Lesnar's previous opponents were able to avoid, including Mir himself in the first fight.

And does he really want to be with Brock on the ground? Look at Mir's face after their UFC 81 bout. One minute was enough for Brock to inflict so much damage, and until foolishly standing over Mir, Brock was doing a very good job of controlling him on the ground.



So as I previously stated, both fighters have plenty to worry about wherever the fight goes which only adds to the intrigue.

Brock's upper body strength will make it hard for the interim champion to lock in submissions. It's not impossible, but I have a hard time picturing him caught in a triangle, a guillotine or even an armbar. I expect him to power out or slam his way out of them a la Rampage Jackson. Leg locks are another issue, and while I'm sure Brock has worked on his defense diligently, Mir remains one of the better submission artists in the heavyweight division. He's also been working with Demian Maia for a while now, so expect him to have even more tricks up his sleeve.

In the standup, I see Mir trying to take the Forrest Griffin approach. He will look to utilize his superior footwork and movement, landing combinations and circling away. However he does like to throw kicks, and someone as fast and explosive as Brock can put him on his back in no time should he get a hold of his timing or if Frank starts telegraphing them (which he often does).

For Brock it's about countering big with a power shot and clinching up. Brock was able to handle Randy Couture in the clinch, and that is no easy feat. He landed some great elbows and knees. Plus his size alone is a problem for anyone in that area. Not to mention that Frank Mir is no Randy Couture in the clinch.

With all that said, how do I see the fight going? I think they will feel each other out on their feet for a while, with each fighter having a bit of success. Frank will land a few jabs and look to set up the uppercut, which is something he had success with in the Nogueira fight. Brock will look to rough him up, close the distance and land some knees and elbows. Eventually, Brock decides to take him down, only this time I don't see him getting caught



That's it for this week. Feel free to share your opinion and predictions and let me know about them in the comments section. Don't forget to check out 411's UFC 100 countdown with daily colums talking about the best UFC moments, fights, fighters, events, etc... Enjoy the fights this weekend, and I'll be back next week, hopefully talking about the greatness that was UFC 100.