Tapping Out With TBerg 07.10.09: Episode XXXIX: UFC 100 Upset Watch

Posted by Todd Bergman on 07.10.2009

Who has the best chance to pull off the upset this weekend in Vegas? 411’s Todd Bergman takes a look at the best possible candidates along with last week’s reader feedback in this edition of Tapping out with TBerg.


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When you look over the UFC 100 card, can you spot where the biggest upsets will happen? This card, like many other UFC cards, has a good amount of underdogs who present the best chance to upset the favorites. While everyone has their own personal beliefs as to who can pull off the upset this weekend, I'm going to present you with the Top 5 fighters who have the best chance for glory. I'm in no way saying that it will happen, so don't bet your house; however, if you do bet your house and you win, then I'm entitled to my 5% managers' fee.


Top 5 UFC 100 Underdogs


5.) Tom Lawlor

Working with Team Wand is only going to help Tom Lawlor coming into this fight with the wannabe The Ultimate Fighter winner, CB Dollaway. Lawlor possess something that none of CB's previous opponent have: the ability to get the fight to the ground and put Dollaway on his back. CB is extremely comfortable when he is on top and in control, and Lawlor can quickly change that. Lawlor's only loss came from a DQ to Shane Primm back in 2008, so it's been a little while since Tom has tasted defeat. His recent trip to Team Wand can only help his striking in this fight. We all have witnessed Dollaway wasting no time in trying to get the fight to the ground, and he will hit the panic button if the fight doesn't hit the ground in the first few minutes. Lawlor will also have to be tricky with his submissions on the ground. Dollaway has shown an apparent weakness when it comes to the arm bar defense in fights. It's a long shot for "The Filthy Mauler" to get the win here, but his ability to control the fight can greatly increase his odds.
Chance of upset:Tepid. It's similar to watching a Lady Gaga concert and actually enjoying the music.


4.) Jake O'Brien

What makes Jake O'Brien an attractive pick here is the fact that he's a spoiler when it comes to fights. Heath Herring was expected to make quick work of O'Brien, and Jake basically frustrated Herring into a boring decision loss. I'm not saying that Jake will have the same amount of luck here against a more deadly and athletic Jon Jones, but what I am saying is that Jones takes a lot of risks in fights and that could lead to Jake getting takedowns and maintaining control of Jones. It appears that Jon Jones wants to stand and bang and keep the fireworks coming. Well, what happens if he isn't able to do that? Can Jones get up when he is put on his back? There are still a lot of questions when it comes to the game of Jon Jones, in particular his ability to finish an opponent. This fight has been hand-selected for Jones to get that highlight finish. Will he feel the pressure and choke away the opportunity? Something else to consider is the fact that this is the first time that Jones will be the favorite heading into the Octagon. It's nothing major but the little things can add up, especially when O'Brien knows that he is the sacrificial lamb being led to slaughter.
Chance of upset: Luke Warm. It's much to those Mary Louise Parker pictures that were on the main page yesterday.



3.) Mac Danzig

I realize that you aren't suppose to bet against the Miller brothers but I think that Mac Danzig has a legitimate chance in this fight, if, and only if, he can stop the takedown. One other huge factor to take into consideration is the fact that Danzig trains with someone who has already defeated Miller in the past. That of course being Gray Maynard. Anyone with some common sense can realize that Danzig doesn't posses the takedown defense that Maynard does, but Mac does have some pretty solid boxing that could offset Miller's ground abilities. In his two previous fights, Danzig has been handled by some strong wrestlers in Clay Guida and Josh Neer. This would usually be the cause of a huge concern, but I don't think that Miller is as good as the two previous opponents when it comes to getting the fight to the ground. In the fight with Matt Wiman, Miller showed a supreme lack of absorbing a strike and the same could be said about the Maynard fight as well. If Mac Danzig wants to win this fight, he is going to have to go after a victory instead of just trying to let the fight come to him. With a defeat here, Danzig will unquestionably be without a job come Monday, so he needs to go out there and let it all hang out.
Chance of upset: Warm. It's much like the feeling you get when Gina Carano comes on the TV.


2.) Alan Belcher

It's a pretty trendy pick when it comes to upsets, but Belcher has played spoiler before and could possibly do it again in this fight. Belcher was successful the last time out against Denis Kang because he let Kang tire himself out. This, of course, seems to always be a problem when it comes to Kang, but Belcher has the smarts to stick to the game plan and let the fight come to him instead of risking anything. Belcher is extremely underrated when it comes to MMA, and that's mostly due to some of his own inconsistencies from time to time. The loss to Kendall Grove sticks out the most and that dreaded performance against Ed Herman, even in victory, can easily be used as evidence for why Belcher isn't included in the top tier of UFC fighters. However, all of that can be washed away as he takes on UFC newcomer Yoshiro Akiyama. Being a newcomer to the UFC means a lot of things, especially when you come from the Land of the Rising Sun. That often means that you leave the Octagon in defeat more times than not (Lyoto Machida is the exception to this statement). How will the UFC jitters affect Akiyama? Which Alan Belcher will show up? The logical side of my brain says that Belcher is past his inconsistent performances and we, as fans, will continue to see the guy that finished Jorge Santiago and Denis Kang more than the guy who couldn't get off his stool against Kendall Grove.
Chance of upset: Heated. Belcher is a logical pick here as Akiyama doesn't do anything that Belcher hasn't seen before. Then again, Belcher is taking on Sexiyama.



1.) Thiago Alves

So what if Dana White screwed up pronouncing your name on the UFC 100 Countdown show? For Thiago Alves, this is a huge opportunity to steal the spotlight with Brock Lesnar fighting in the Main Event. Like it or not, GSP isn't a huge name outside of MMA marks. He's just not, and I know that is going to shock a lot of you. Sure, GSP has a Gatorade endorsement, but the UFC added Lesnar to the card to get the mainstream buys. What does all of this mean for Alves? He has nothing to lose in this fight unless he doesn't make weight. From my own personal opinion, GSP is a fighter of momentum. If you let him get a takedown and he lands his kicks, he's going to be unstoppable. However, if you bully him around and stop the takedown, then he doesn't have much to rely on. It's a pretty generic game plan, but if Alves is the first to get his punches and leg kicks off then he stands a pretty good shot at winning this fight. GSP has been stopped via TKO before by a smaller Matt Serra, so that shows you that Alves, who hits insanely hard, can score a knockout or at least a referee stoppage in this fight. Alves should also be confident in that if he doesn't want to throw leg kicks due to the takedowns of GSP, then he can rely on his boxing. If Thiago is able to win this fight, it will have to happen early because the later the fight goes the more it favors GSP.
Chance of upset:Steamy. Considering GSP has all the pressure on him and very little thought is going into an Alves victory. GSP hasn't faced a striker like Alves before, so there's a little more to worry about when it comes to GSP's game plan.



Last week, I took a look at the possible biggest headlines that could rock the next 100 UFC events. Here's what you all had to say about my thoughts.

Brad brings gloom and doom to the cage: The next 100 UFC events will be dominated by super-heavyweights who have to cut to 265 and the rest of the classes full of "well-rounded" guys which to me, is kind of sad. Also after UFC 150 (for a nice round number) there is a total monopoly in MMA with the UFC holding shows worldwide and competition on a mainstream level dead. Also I have a feeling someone will die in the cage, cause you know, every great sport has a great and tragic death to go with it. Of course I wouldn't want it to happen but the "sporting gods" may look at it differently.

I don't think that anyone will die inside the Octagon. It's possible that it could happen at a smaller show, but with regulation hopefully happening in each state by the end of 2010, the likelihood of those injuries will go down. I'm not sure what you mean when you say great tragedy in every sport? Sure, the WWE will always have Owen Hart and Nascar with Dale Sr., but those were just freak accidents and those sports have recovered since then. I also think that MMA has a way of evening out the playing field. There isn't a majority of "Super Heavyweights" that are good enough to dominate any ranks, let alone a company. However, MMA history has shown us that it only takes one punch, or in Mark Coleman's case one huge kick, to really end your run at the top.

Guest #1801 wins the award this week: what would make you think i'm canadian? i was born and raised in washington state as a matter of fact. sarcasm aside, most of the judges grew up with non-mma combat sports and are used to seeing and using their judgment on non-mma sports. my point is that just as we saw the level of competition rise from the start of the ufc until now, we should also be seeing a corresponding rise in the level of judging. the judging shift will take longer, though, because judges can have much longer careers than fighters. for all your bitching about the 10 point must system it turns in a remarkably low number of crappy judgements, the majority of which probably lie with the "nut behind the wheel" more than with the system itself. and to address a point in this particular column: stale and rehashed? really? that must be why nobody likes football, or baseball, soccer, or basketball anymore. all those same teams playing the same game under the same rules in the same format and arenas over and over has really been the death of all those sports. they should try mixing it up, like the xfl. now, i can see you saying that about something like the ultimate fighter reality show, but mma in general?

How is Washington this time of year? It's about time for you Washington people to start getting ready for the exciting Washington Huskies football, right? Tough season last year, wasn't it? If you read my article closely, I noted that all of those sports actually do a fair amount of rule changing in their off seasons. That's why those sports don't become stale and rehashed. When I mentioned MMA, it's that I simply want the rules committee to admit fault and change some rules in order for the sport to properly grow. An example would be the NHL taking out the two line pass and smaller goalie pads after the strike year. While some bitched about the changes, it really allowed the game to flow faster and have the feel that anyone can score at anytime. I hardly think that fans would have a problem with judging being tweaked a little and referees having a clearer presentation of what hitting in the back of the head really means. Hope this makes things a little more clear for you, as I think I confused you.

Paul dreams of Unicorns: "Dreaded MMA meassage boards" huh? :)Actually thats old that Lashley gets crapped on for being an expro-wrestler now that he at least proved himself.

If this place actually exists, please take me away to this land of marshmallow clouds and gingerbread mountains.

Guest #6669 just found out that Santa Claus wasn't real: Really wish you wouldn't have spoiled that part of TUF. Was kind of a dick move.

I said that it was a rumor. Never did I state that it was a fact. However, if this little rumor stops you from watching the next season of The Ultimate Fighter then let me know when I can spoil The Ultimate Fighter Season 11 for you as well.

Clarkie drinks the haterade: Your a crack head...I dont think I agreed with anything you said.

Thanks so much for the kind words. I would probably be just as angry if my parents named me Clarkie. What's that old saying about sticks and stones?

MJF finishes the bitching: How about a f'ing spoiler warning before the Kimbo TUF info. WTF?????

I want to state again that this is a rumor. However, if it keeps all three of you happy then next time, I will clearly state when something is a rumor and what might be a fact. There have always been a huge amount of false truths when it comes to The Ultimate Fighter. Remember when everyone thought that Kalib Starnes was going to the Finals? I guess we all will have to watch and find out what happens.

That does it for this week's article. If you think someone else has a better shot of pulling off an upset this weekend, then please let your voice be heard below. Don't forget that 411mania.com is a great website and you should make it your homepage as well. If you can't part with the porn homepage, then at least bookmark the site for easy internet accessibility. Remember to support your local MMA and keep your tapping hand strong.