The Rear Naked Column 07.16.09: Invincible Champions? (Part 1)

Posted by Samer Kadi on 07.16.2009

Brock Lesnar and GSP’s dominating victories at UFC 100 left many wondering whether anyone in their respective divisions can beat them. Incidentally, the same question has been asked regarding Anderson Silva, BJ Penn and the recently crowned light heavyweight champion of the world, Lyoto Machida. This week, we examine the state of each UFC division, taking a closer look at the champions and the potential challengers as well as the chances of a possible title switch in the near future!

At UFC 100, Georges St. Pierre took on what was thought to be the biggest test of his career. The result was a one sided unanimous decision victory as the champion dominated Thiago Alves for five rounds. In the main event, Brock Lesnar avenged his only career loss to date with a second round destruction of Frank Mir to be crowned the UFC undisputed heavyweight champion.

The ease in which St. Pierre was able to dispose of Alves further solidified his "unbeatable" image, while Lesnar's demolition of Mir and his subsequent emergence as the undisputed heavyweight kingpin in the UFC has already prompted cries of invincibility amongst the experts.

While MMA fans in general are a bit overzealous when it comes to labeling a fighter as invincible, and champions are thought of as being dominant even before a single successful title defense, there can be no doubt that the current reigning UFC champions are the cream of the crop in their respective divisions.

Anderson Silva is currently enjoying a record 9 fight winning streak in the UFC, and his dominance over the middleweight division issued him a second trip to the light heavyweight division as he takes on former champion Forrest Griffin next month. Along with St. Pierre, he is the only gold wearing fighter to prove his dominance over his weight class, with no fewer than five consecutive title defenses.

BJ Penn, like Lesnar, has defended his title once. And despite the one sided beating he suffered at the hands of Georges St. Pierre in February, he undoubtedly remains the top 155'er in the world and should continue to find success as long as he sticks to his natural weight class.

Perhaps the most intriguing case is light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. Undefeated in his MMA career, Machida is considered one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world. His unorthodox Karate style often left his opponents helpless and outclassed. To this day, nobody has been able to solve the Machida puzzle. In fact, no one has come close: Sokoudjou and Ortiz were made to look foolish, and Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans were put to sleep. Despite not having defended his title yet, few would bet on him losing it in the near future. Many are already predicting a long and dominating title reign for the Brazilian.

While most indications point out to a status quo at the top of each division, a single well placed punch can turn everything around. Georges St. Pierre was supposed to enjoy his current tear two years ago before running into Matt Serra. Quinton Jackson was predicted to reign supreme at the top of the light heavyweight division for years until Forrest Griffin leg kicked his title away. Upsets are inevitable in this sport, and most fighters are bound to suffer from one at some point or another. But who's likely to be the first victim? Will Brock successfully take on all contenders in an ever improving division? Is the era of Machida really upon us? How will BJ Penn deal with his toughest test to date in the lightweight division when he takes on number one contender Kenny Florian in August?

I'm going to examine the state of each division by looking at the champion, the potential challengers, and the likelihood of a title change. This week I'll take a look at the Heavyweight and the Welterweight divisions as both champions are freshly coming off successful title defenses at UFC 100.

Heavyweight:

Champion: Brock Lesnar.



Lesnar has been the center of attention ever since his UFC debut against Frank Mir. While that fight lasted just over a minute, Lesnar showed great promise until falling victim to his inexperience when he got caught in a kneebar. While he didn't hide his disappointment, Brock rebounded perfectly with a three round beatdown of former PRIDE number one contender Heath Herring, an MMA veteran who's fought all over the world against the biggest names in the sport. And it's been an uphill ride for Brock since, as he stopped Randy Couture to become the UFC heavyweight champion last November and followed it up with the best performance of his young career against Mir last Saturday. Brock displayed surprising maturity during that fight. He controlled Mir on the ground without getting careless, kept pushing off his chest and gave him no room for hip movement, thus eliminating the threat of submissions. He controlled his wrists perfectly and used his overwhelming strength, size and power to finish the fight.



Contenders:

Dana White mentioned that the winner of the upcoming Shane Carwin-Cain Velasquez fight will most likely get a title shot against Lesnar. I do believe this will be the most dangerous fight for Lesnar at the moment. Both Carwin and Velasquez are great wrestlers, and Brock will have a harder time taking them down. Randy Couture, a significantly smaller man than Lesnar was able to stuff some of his takedowns and scrambled back to his feet and almost managed to take Brock down himself. And while neither Carwin nor Velsaquez possess the experience or intelligence of Randy Couture in the Octagon, they do present some matchup problems for Brock. Shane Carwin in particular might pose a very interesting challenge for the champ. With his wrestling, size and punching power, he's one of the few in the division who can actually nullify Brock's main weapons.

That's not to say that Carwin will be the favorite against Brock, not by any stretch of the imagination. He still has to get past Cain Velasquez first. On the other hand Velasquez will need to rely on his striking should he face Brock as it is unlikely that he'll be able to out-wrestler him. He does have the more technical and more diverse striking than Lesnar (who's still overly reliant on that big right hand), but Cheick Kongo was able to tag him with pretty much every shot he threw.

Randy Couture and Minotauro Nogueira can find themselves in the number one contender spot soon. I expect the winner of their fight to take on Mirko Cro Cop (should he get past Dos Santos), with the winner of that fight earning a title shot. Three years ago, any of those three men would have been a handful for Brock to deal with. Nogueira's ability to withstand punishment and submit pretty much anyone off of his back makes him a serious threat to Brock. But his fight with Frank Mir back in December proved that Nogueira is no longer the man who submitted Cro Cop back in 2003. Nog has decent boxing, but even in his prime, his head movement and footwork left a lot to be desired. He also has a knack of taking a beating, which doesn't bode well for him against someone like Lesnar. Like I mentioned, I believe Nogueira can no longer take the ground and pound he suffered at the hands Fedor in their first and third meetings. With Brock on top of him pounding away with those XXXL gloves, things can turn ugly for the Brazilian legend. However, Nogueira is a tad stronger than Mir with an arguably more dangerous guard. Mark Coleman mentioned that he'd never seen someone with better wrist control than Nogueira, which will be vital against Brock.

Cro Cop once possessed one of the best takedown defenses in MMA but those days are long gone. He needs to sprawl and brawl against Lesnar to have a chance, but I don't see him doing it at this stage of his career.

A Couture rematch is intriguing. In the first match, Randy failed to deal with Brock's reach, which I think is something a lot of people are overlooking. Despite not having the most technical stand up, Brock's reach means he's always one right hand away from ending the fight. Randy also didn't have his way in the clinch with Brock like he usually does with his other opponents. You can always count on Couture to come up with a masterful gameplan, and he's made a career out of proving people wrong. I don't like his chances in a rematch but I'd be interested in seeing it. We don't know much about Brock's cardio and if Randy can drag it out to the championship rounds, he can pull it off.

Chances of a title change: Possible.

Again, I do think Brock will be the favorite against whoever he ends up facing. That being said, this is the heavyweight division. Most fighters possess knockout power, so you're always one punch away from losing your title. You also can't disregard Brock's inexperience. He's only had five fights in his MMA career and is pretty much learning on the fly while defending his title. That is no easy feat. His stand up still looks stiff and mechanical, and he absorbed some shots against Couture and even Mir, who connected with a solid left elbow and a big knee. While Brock is constantly improving and I fully expect him to reign over the division, he's still green and far from being well rounded, so there's always room for error, which is all it takes sometimes.


Welterweight:

Champion: Georges St. Pierre.



It might have been the toughest test of his career, but GSP sure didn't make it seem that way. Putting together a brilliant gameplan and executing it to perfection, St. Pierre dominated Alves from start to finish. I do think GSP was more conservative this time around, he didn't unload on his ground and pound the way he did against BJ Penn, but that is mainly due to Alves' ability to power back to his feet. It was vital for GSP to control the shoulders, as Alves' size and upper body strength made it harder for the Canadian to contain him.

I'm still amazed by how effortless GSP makes everything look. The first takedown on Alves in the fourth round was a thing of beauty, and it's all the more impressive with the way he sets those takedowns up. I've heard many people label GSP as "just a wrestler nowadays", and how his gameplan is "always the same". I really think people need to pay more attention. Sure ultimately, his goal is to take the fight to the ground, but he does it in so many different ways, it's stunning. In the BJ Penn fight, he roughed BJ up from the clinch. For an entire round, GSP clinched up, used some dirty boxing, held single legs and made BJ tire himself out by hopping on one leg and using his flexibility. He didn't shoot from distance, instead used his striking aggressively to close in and take him down. The Alves fight was another story. He relied on countering in his stand up, using his superior reach to land jabs and circle away, waited for Alves to commit and took him down. After that Thiago couldn't get overly aggressive and exchange in fear of ending up on his back. Every time he fully committed to the right leg kick, he got taken down. GSP's speed and reflexes are uncanny.

He's got so many tools in his arsenal that he just has so many options at his disposal. He didn't throw too many right leg kicks, presumably in fear of an Alves counter right or a left hook. So he used his trademark superman punch/ leg kick combo to close in the distance and land it. He's so fast that he doesn't telegraph it so it's hard to spot it coming.



GSP's wrestling is so good because of his striking, and his striking is so good because of his wrestling. His opponents are always worried about the takedown, so he can take more liberties with his striking (which is why he out-struck a Muay Thai specialist like Alves), and he takes his opponents down so easily because he sets it up with his striking and remains unpredictable. He throws a lot of feigns, always keeping his opponents off balance and uses his reach to remain outside of the striking zone.

Contenders:

In the post fight interview, GSP mentioned that the welterweight division is stacked, and he's right. Unfortunately, he forgot to mention the part where he has already cleaned it. Outside of the winner of Swick/Kampmann (seriously?), there's nothing for St. Pierre but rematches.

While Jon Fitch will probably do enough to earn a rematch, as he's still arguably one of the top three welterweights in the world, does anybody really think the outcome would be any different? The thing is, it's unlikely that someone will win a decision against GSP, so can you really see Fitch (or anyone else for that matter) finishing him? Fitch is pretty well rounded, but St. Pierre does everything that much better. Jon doesn't possess the knockout power to end the fight with one strike, and despite being a pretty good wrestler and a black belt in Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu, he's not going to out-grapple the champ.

Josh Koscheck is coming off a loss and it is unlikely that he'll be earning a title shot anytime soon. And we saw how their first fight turned out. Standing up, he doesn't have much to offer outside of a big right hand.

Hughes has already been finished twice by St. Pierre and Parisyan's days as a top contender are long gone.



In time, Anthony Johnson might pose an interesting match up for the champion, but right now he's far from ready. The very fact that people have been throwing his name around as a potential contender demonstrates the extent of GSP's domination over the division.

This leaves us with the winner of Swick/Kampmann. Stylistically, Swick possesses a slightly better chance as he's got fast hands and decent punching power. Wrestling has always been Kampmann's Achilles heel, and this doesn't bode well for him against a wrestler of GSP's caliber. I don't see how this will be different to Patrick Coté or Thales Leites "earning" title shots against Anderson Silva.

Chances of a title change: Highly unlikely.

The fact is, St. Pierre is just too good right now. He's on a totally different level, and does pretty much everything better than anyone else. He's too good to get submitted, especially when his opponent will most likely end up on his back, and the chances of a Matt Serra type of shot are minimal. The other problem is, I don't think a move to the middleweight division is the solution. He's too small for a middleweight, do you honestly picture a Dan Henderson-GSP fight? But a catchweight fight with Anderson Silva? Now we're talking, although people are getting a bit carried away with all the "GSP will beat Anderson Silva" talk.

The UFC better somehow sign Jake Shields or Nick Diaz. Not that I think either one of them has a great chance to beat GSP, but at last it's an interesting matchup to sell.


I hope you enjoyed the column, next week we'll be looking at the Light Heavyweight, Middleweight and Lightweight divisions. If you have any comments, drop them buy.