The Rear Naked Column 07.22.09: Invincible Champions? (Part 2)

Posted by Samer Kadi on 07.22.2009

After examining the state of the UFC heavyweight and welterweight divisions last week, “The Rear Naked Column” returns with a look at Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva as well as their potential challengers down the road. Join 411’s Samer Kadi as he views the list of contenders who might pose a threat to both champions’ invincibility and the chances of a future title change in their respective divisions.

On the heels of last week's column where we examined the state of current UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar as well as welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, "The Rear Naked Column" returns this week with a look at the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions.

Sitting atop of each division are two of the most talented mixed martial artists in the world. Anderson Silva's reign of terror over the middleweight division prompted the UFC to allow him a trip to the light heavyweight division for the second time as he takes on Forrest Griffin this August at UFC 101. Riding a nine fight winning streak including five successful title defenses, "The Spider" has no doubt earned his "invincible" label. But can the same be said about his teammate, the current UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida?

For those of you wondering why I left out BJ Penn and the lightweight division, I'm planning on dedicating a full column taking an in depth look at the upcoming BJ Penn-Kenny Florian bout at UFC 101, so I didn't want to spoil that in today's column.

Light Heavyweight:

Champion: Lyoto Machida



Undefeated in his Mixed Martial Arts career, Lyoto Machida sits comfortably on the light heavyweight throne. His knockout victory over Rashad Evans back in May remains in my mind the most stunning performance of the year. The ease in which Machida was able to handle then undefeated Evans is absolutely mindblowing.



At the heart of Machida's success is an unorthodox yet highly efficient Karate background. Machida was able to adapt his style to MMA in remarkable fashion. A southpaw with impeccable timing, "The Dragon" has been near flawless in his Mixed Martial Arts career. Cries of "boring" surrounding his early UFC fights propelled the talented Brazilian to adopt a more aggressive, far more lethal style.

No one seems to have an answer for his accuracy, quickness and timing. Different fighters embraced different approaches and all of them came up short. Sokoudjou and Thiago Silva's aggressions led to their downfall, while Rashad Evans suffered the same fate despite implementing a far more cautious gameplan. Tito Ortiz' wrestling didn't seem to faze the champion as he stuffed takedown attempts with ease and had no difficulty overpowering "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy", which is not an easy feat.

After his impressive rise to the top and despite not having a single title defense under his belt, talks of a "Machida era" began circling among the "experts" with many already predicting a long, dominant title reign for the champ.

Contenders:

One time number 1 ranked light heavyweight in the world Mauricio "Shogun" Rua is next in line for a shot at his compatriot's belt. After overcoming a disappointing and highly unimpressive start to his UFC career, Shogun looked to have righted the ship with a first round knockout of UFC hall of famer Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell. Is Shogun really the man to slay the dragon? There can be no denying Rua's talent and versatility, and he does possess the tools in his arsenal to give anyone in the 205 division fits. He is one of the more well rounded fighters in the division and his quickness, explosiveness, youth and power can no doubt lead him to the top of the weight class. The biggest fear for Shogun is ironically one of his biggest strengths: his aggression. Like most Chute Boxe trained fighters, Rua is a berserker. He's made a career of overwhelming his opponents with aggression. Against Machida, that is simply a recipe for disaster, but Shogun knows this. In a recent interview, he mentioned how patience was the key against Lyoto. And while that didn't work out too well for Rashad Evans, it remains in my opinion the way to go against the champ. Rua displayed some of that patience and careful gameplanning in his last fight against Liddell, as he picked his spots and mixed things up on his way to the first round stoppage. But Machida is a different animal. Despite Machida being a BJJ black belt, Shogun might be better served to take the fight to the ground at some point. And while a great wrestler like Ortiz wasn't able to do that against The Dragon, Shogun actually sets up his takedowns smartly. He's not a top level wrestler, but he utilizes leg kicks, knees, looping punches and his overall Muay Thai game to close the distance and go for the trip takedown as opposed to the traditional double leg takedowns utilized by wrestlers. Rua is a high level BJJ fighter himself and does possess a fantastic ability to pass his opponent's guard. However, Machida's sumo background probably provides him with a great base so taking him down, let alone keeping him down long enough is a challenge for anyone.

If Machida is able to topple Shogun, he is likely to take on Quinton Rampage Jackson should the latter manage to beat rival and fellow TUF 10 coach Rashad Evans. If Rampage sticks to a strictly boxing approach in the fight, he's doomed. Rampage possesses some sharp technical boxing, and has so far managed to knockdown each and every one of his opponents inside the Octagon. But Machida's timing, unorthodox stance and great footwork can make Rampage look fairly predictable. Rampage needs to get some of his PRIDE style back, getting in close and utilizing some dirty boxing in order to setup takedowns. Jackson is a very capable wrestler, even though we haven't seen much of that wrestling ability in the UFC. One threat that Jackson poses more than any other fighter in the division is his punching power. Jackson arguably packs up the hardest punch in the 205 weight class. If one of his deadly hooks connects (a big if), Machida's reign can come to an end. Rampage is also an aggressive fighter and has a history of deviating from the gameplan. Against someone who has a habit of frustrating his opponents like Machida, Quinton can't afford to get frustrated nor careless. In my mind, an in form, in shape, hard working Jackson is the biggest threat to Lyoto at 205. His legendary chin, punching power, and overall toughness can't be underestimated. Although rest assured those attributes alone won't get him "his" title back.

Forrest Griffin could make a strong case for a title shot if he beats Machida's teammate Anderson Silva in a couple of weeks. Forrest's style is probably the closest to Machida in the division. Mind you that's not saying that they possess an identical style, far from it, but they do share some similarities. Forrest is another fighter who possesses good footwork and utilizes it to circle away, and repeatedly get in and out of his opponent's striking range. He used it to perfection against Quinton Rampage Jackson to win the light heavyweight title last July. But unlike Machida, Forrest likes to throw combinations, usually finishing things up with leg or body kicks. Forrest's main concern is that he doesn't really possess one punch knockout power. Realistically, Griffin's best chances would be to earn a decision. Given that Machida has yet to lose a round in his UFC career, I don't really like those chances. Machida is too elusive to be peppered with leg kicks, and every time Forrest moves in for a combination he risks getting countered, which is what Machida does best, probably better than anyone else in the world. While Griffin is a very well rounded fighter, he's not particularly great at one distinctive ability. Meaning he doesn't have a bread and butter weapon to go to, which spells trouble against The Dragon.

Aside from the fighters I just mentioned, I honestly don't see someone seriously threatening Lyoto. Rashad and Rich Franklin's chances in a rematch aren't that good, and while Jardine's style can throw anybody off, he's too inconsistent to earn a title shot in the first place.

Chances of a title change: Possible but not likely.

I do believe Machida is on another level right now. In my mind, he's undoubtedly the best light heavyweight in the world and a top 5 pound for pound fighter. No one has come close to figuring out his style, and the chances of that happening soon aren't great. With that said, he still fights in arguably the most stacked division in the world, where most guys possess punching power as well. One mistake is all it takes. While his timing is incredible, he does leave his chin up and you never know when a well placed punch turns his lights out.


Middleweight:

Champion: Anderson Silva



Considered by many to be the top pound for pound fighter in the world, UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva has been on a tear since joining the organization. After making short work of Chris Leben on his UFC debut, Silva was awarded an immediate title shot against then middleweight champion Rich Franklin. The result was beyond anybody's expectations, as The Spider finished Rich in the first round with a devastating use of the Muay Thai clinch. Anderson hasn't looked back since, as he went on a 9 fight winning streak, including another destruction of Franklin, a first round KO of Nate Marquardt, and a second round submission to unify the UFC and PRIDE belts against Dan Henderson. Despite looking bored and disinterested in his last two fights, Anderson remains the man to beat in the UFC. His striking skills are unparalleled, arguably the best in all of MMA. Anderson's mixture of precision, power and grace is just a joy to watch. The second thrashing of Rich Franklin remains in my mind one of the most impressive and beautiful displays of technical striking in UFC history. His dominance over the 185 weight class allowed him a trip to the light heavyweight division where it took him just over a minute to finish off heavy handed striker James "The Sandman" Irvin.



Many have been labeled as "the guy to beat Anderson Silva" but few, if any, have come close. Dan Henderson winning the first round before being finished in the second was viewed as an accomplishment. Commentators Mike Goldberg and Joe Rogan were full of praise for Rich Franklin's performance in the rematch despite barely making a contest out of the fight. Such has been the dominance of Anderson Silva, as landing a single punch against him earns you bragging rights. Ironically, in my opinion, the fighter who performed best against Anderson Silva was Travis Lutter. Don't laugh, re-watch the fight. Obviously "performed best" is used loosely here, as Lutter failed to make weight for their fight (which made it a non title fight) and gassed horribly in the second round. With that said, the guy repeatedly took Anderson down and had him mounted, postured up and landed some big bombs before attempting a sloppy armbar that allowed Silva to reverse. If you ask me, Dan Henderson being the first fighter to take a round from Silva is a myth, as Lutter clearly won the first round in their fight. But that is neither here nor there, as Lutter embarrassed himself badly in that fight and went on to suffer from further embarrassment, gassing again against Rich Franklin (where he ironically almost won the fight after locking in a deep armbar) before being released by the UFC.

So who in the Middleweight division has what it takes to take The Spider's title away from him?

Contenders:

Unfortunately I can't strictly focus on the fighters who have yet to square off against Silva as he's almost cleaned out the entire division.

But a fresh challenge might lie ahead in the form of Demian Maia. The BJJ wizard first has a very tough task ahead of him as he takes on Nate Marquardt in August. If he's successful, Maia could find himself in the driver's seat for a middleweight title shot. What Maia brings to the table is obvious, yet no one has been able to stop it. He's simply a magician on the ground who can submit almost anyone off his back or from the top. We saw another BJJ specialist fail miserably in his attempt to defeat The Spider, but Maia is a better, smarter fighter than Thales Leites. Maia is extremely intelligent and knows how to get the fight to the ground. He uses his striking as nothing more than a setup for the eventual takedown (or pulling guard), but he's been able to execute it to perfection. Silva has shown that he can be vulnerable to takedowns, so if Maia were to take him to the ground, you have to like his chances. But Anderson is no slouch on the mat either. I think he has improved since his fight against Travis Lutter in that area, as he now possesses a very dangerous guard, both offensively and defensively. Thales Leites had him on his back for almost an entire round and failed to pass his guard, while Dan Henderson failed to land any significant damage in their fight as well. He's shown what he can do offensively in his fight against Lutter and Marquardt, as he submitted Lutter with a triangle choke after catching him with an upkick right on the chin, and he performed a beautiful sweep to put Marquardt on his back before finishing seconds later with brutal punches. This leads me to believe that Maia needs to keep him on the ground for a significant period of time before getting the tapout as he's unlikely to have an easy time submitting Anderson. Maia's top game is quite amazing, but he doesn't use strikes to punish the opponent, and instead looks for the immediate submission. Against Anderson, he might want to keep him guessing by throwing some ground and pound and hoping for a mistake. Maia's chances are good as long as he takes to the ground, but if it stays on the feet long enough, he'll find himself being attended to by the medical team.

The other threat to Anderson's title is Maia's opponent at UFC 102, and a man who already got a crack at the champ, Nate Marquardt. While Nate failed to get past the first round in their initial fight, he is undoubtedly an improved fighter. But just how significant is that improvement? He looked like a beast when he disposed of Martin Kampmann and Wilson Goveia with relative ease, but Anderson Silva is the champ for a reason. Despite a much improved standup, if Marquardt stands with Anderson then he's asking for a similar outcome of their first fight. Marquardt is too smart for that however, and he trains with one of the best camps in MMA in Greg Jackson's academy. The gameplan is likely to be spot on, but will it be enough? Georges St. Pierre's execution of Jackson's gameplans is phenomenal, but he's Georges St. Pierre. Gameplans alone can only get you so far. Marquardt does possess a wide array of tools at his disposal, but I don't think that any of them is good enough to trouble Silva.

This leads me to the most serious threat to Anderson's title, Dan Henderson. For Henderson, the strategy should be simple. Recreate that first round he had in their previous fight for five rounds, and you might decision the spider. That is obviously easier said than done. With all due respect to Henderson's right hand (and it is undoubtedly HUGE), he won't catch Anderson with it. Henderson does tend to telegraph it every time he throws it. Many talk about his left hook, but aside from the knockout of Wanderlei Silva, he mainly uses it to set it up that overhand right. Hendo usually throws the jab and the left hook without too much conviction. In the Bisping fight, he set up the knockout with a leg kick, which didn't land by the way, but it was enough to throw Bisping off guard. But Silva's footwork is too good to get caught with a punch like that, and the fact that he's a southpaw gives him an advantage, so don't expect to see him channel his inner Michael Bisping by playing to Hendo's strength. Henderson, while iron chinned, was rocked in their first fight when Silva caught him with a knee from the clinch. So Hendo needs to be careful when attempting a takedown from the clinch, usually his bread and butter move. I don't see Henderson finishing Silva, but if he shows up in top shape and improved cardio (he looked gassed against Rich Franklin and he admitted to not being fresh in the Silva fight), he might be able to earn one of his beloved decisions. My main concern for Hendo is the fact that he tends to get into unnecessary slugfests, and that cost him dearly in the first fight.

Chances of a title change: Dan Henderson, period.

I honestly don't picture anyone beating The Spider at middleweight aside from Henderson. Silva will obviously go into the fight (should it happen) as the favorite, and rightfully so. Dan needs to have the performance of his life, from a mental and physical perspective to become the UFC middleweight champion. Should he come into the fight in top condition, with the right gameplan and more importantly the right execution, he might be able to pull it off.

Hope you enjoyed the colum this week, don't forget to send in your comments as I will be addressing them next week. Remember to bookmark 411mania and make it your homepage.