411’s MMA Roundtable Preview - UFC 101: Declaration

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 08.07.2009

The UFC makes their Philadelphia debut on Saturday, and brings the fans two big fights! In the main event, BJ Penn defends his lightweight championship against Kenny Florian. In the co-main event, UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva takes on former light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin. In welterweight action, TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah takes on Johny Hendricks and much more! Check out 411’s complete Roundtable Preview for UFC 101 for all the details!



WELCOME:
The UFC makes their Philadelphia debut on Saturday, and brings the fans two big fights! In the main event, BJ Penn defends his lightweight championship against Kenny Florian. In the co-main event, UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva takes on former light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin. In welterweight action, TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah takes on Johny Hendricks and much more!

THE STAFF:

From The Blueprint, Patrick Mullin!

From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!

From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi

From Tapping Out With TBerg, Todd Bergman!

From Blood on the Mat, Adam Tool!

From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, Jeremy Lambert!

From The Five Finger Death Punch, Matt Welch!

From The MMA Legacy, Bill Wannop!

From MMA's 3 R's, Matt McEwen!

From The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Scott Kuczkowski!

And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!




THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight bout: Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Patrick Mullin: Admittedly I haven't seen a lot of Neer or Pellegrino. However I do know both guys love the submission game and with that being the case I favor Neer as the superior ground technician.

Winner: Josh Neer, Submission, Round 2.

Jonathan Solomon: This has the means of being the best lightweight fight on the card. Josh Neer is coming off a submission win over Mac Danzig and has been successful in four of five fights since the summer of 2007. He's fairly even when it comes to how he wins, 10 career knockouts and 11 career submissions. Kurt Pellegrino mixes his wrestling and jiu-jitsu to be a tough opponent. He is riding a two-fight winning streak with victories over Thiago Tavares and Rob Emerson. The majority of his 13 career wins have come by submission. I think both men may cancel each other out on the ground to where neither man will dominate the other. Pellegrino's wrestling should help him dictate the fight but Neer's striking may change his plans. Flip that coin if the majority of the fight is on the ground. Otherwise, I'll go with the better striker.

Winner: Josh Neer, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: Both Neer and Pellegrino are coming off strong submission victories. Neer over TUF 6 winner, Mac Danzig, and Pellegrino over Rob Emerson. Especially with now Neer fights, I am expecting a fun fight and scrap and a potential fight of the night candidate.

Winner: Josh Neer, Decision.

Samer Kadi: Coming off a highly impressive win over Mac Danzig in what was one of the better fights of the year, Josh Neer returns to the Octagon to lock up horns with Kurt Pellegrino, who also has been enjoying good times in the UFC with successive wins over Thiago Tavares and Rob Emerson. While neither fighter is going somewhere in the division in the immediate future, this still promises to be a fascinating battle. I do think that Neer holds a slight edge in each area of the game. As witnessed in the fight against Mac Danzig and even Nate Diaz, Neer possesses a highly efficient ground game. Add to that the size and strength advantage, and he should have his hand raised come decision time.

Winner: Josh Neer, Unanimous Decision.

Todd Bergman: The resurgence of both fighters is pretty exciting and makes this a very interesting fight. Neer's ability to push the pace and his never-say-die attitude will win him this fight. Pellegrino, in the past, has shown a weakness against fighters who push the pace and not let him get comfortable. The first couple of rounds should be pretty exciting with both guys slugging it out but in the 3rd round, Neer will solidify the victory when he stops Kurt with strikes. While Kurt has looked great recently, his gas tank leaves something to be desired. That little hole in his game allows Kurt to pay a visit to the tooth fairy.

Winner: Josh Neer, TKO, 3rd round

Adam Tool: We've got two lightweights that are always capable of going to war, meaning that this fight could easily walk away with the "Fight of the Night" bonus. It's really a toss-up as to where this fight will take place. They could choose to stand and trade, or we could see a back-and-forth grappling showcase. Neer doesn't always get the credit he deserves for his ground game, but I think that's where he takes this.

Winner: Josh Neer, submission, round 3

Jeremy Lambert: This has the potential to be the fight of the night. Neer and Pellegrino always bring excitement so I expect nothing less from them in this fight. They're both well rounded but I just think Neer is a better overall fighter who seems to be on the up while Pellegrino just seems stagnant. For that reason, I think Neer takes this fight.

Winner: Josh Neer, Decision

Matt Welch: This battle of middle-rung lightweights pits two fighters who probably capped out as far as their potential at 155 pounds. It's had to envision either of these fighters contending for the title any time soon, so with no viable ramifications at stake, the most we can hope for is an entertaining fight (which on paper, this should be). Most fighters are at their best on the mat and while under some circumstances, that can lead to both fighters canceling their strong suits out and engaging in a lackluster kickboxing bout. In this case though, both fighters aren't shy about getting things to the ground regardless of who it's against. Just check out their bouts with Nathan Diaz. This is a bit of a toss up, but Neer seems like he has gotten back on track after a razor-thin loss to Diaz and a convincing submission of Mac Danzig.

Winner: Josh Neer, Unanimous Decision

Bill Wannop: This should be a great fight as Neer always comes to entertain. Kurt Pellgrino is no slouch but I believe that Neer has the advantage both in standup and on the ground. This fight could be fight of the night, and I look for Neer to come out victorious.

Winner: Josh Neer, Unanimous Decision

Matt McEwen: This should be the toughest fight of the night, as both guys are usually willing to take a few shots to get in a few of their own. Both are trying to climb out of the middle of the lightweight division and get into title talk, and win here will move one of them further along that path. Neer's striking is better, Pellgrino has better wrestling, and Neer has better jiu jitsu, particularly from his back. If he is able to tire Pellgrino out, he should be able to score a submission, but if not, he will have to put in three hard round to pull out a decision.

Winner: Josh Neer, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Neer will have the experience walking into this fight. Pellegrino is a brawler, but I think this might play into Neer's game plan. I expect this fight to be very exciting for the first round and then probably finish in the second. Though both guys have pulled off some great finishes over really good competition, I'm picking Neer to pick up the win via submission in the second.

Winner: Neer, Submission, Round 2.

Dan Plunkett: This fight is sure to deliver great action. Neer beat TUF 6 winner Mac Danzig in his last fight with an impressive submission. Pellegrino has won his last two fights, including a decision victory over Thiago Tavares. I think there is a very good chance this fight goes to a decision, and I think the fight will be very close. Everybody else is picking Neer in this one, so I'll go the opposite way and say Pellegrino gets the nod.

Winner: Kurt Pellegrino, Decision

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Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida

Patrick Mullin: In a classic Striker vs. Grappler match up, Grove will look to keep things standing and exploit his height and reach while Almeida will look to take things to the ground and assert himself with his BJJ. While Grove has been beaten by guys of a lesser quality than Almeida, I feel Almeida doesn't have the correct style to trouble Grove. He's extremely reliant on his BJJ and Grove has only tended to have trouble with power strikers. I look for Grove to use his superior striking to win a decision.

Winner: Kendall Grove, Unanimous decision.

Jonathan Solomon: TUF3 winner Kendall Grove returns to the cage for his second fight of 2009. Right now he is on a successful streak of two with wins over Evan Tanner and Jason Day. Prior to knockout losses against Patrick Cote and Jorge Rivera, he defeated Ed Herman, Chris Price and Alan Belcher in the UFC. He's known for jiu-jitsu and muay-thai which is aided by his frame, he's 6'6 while Ricardo Almeida will be about 6'0 even. Almeida is a third degree BJJ black belt and since returning to the UFC last year, he's 2-1. He has career wins over Ryo Chonan and Kazuo Misaki and even Minowaman (but were those Pancrase fights legit?). It's safe to say on the ground, Almeida will be extremely comfortable and probably most effective. The problem will be keeping Grove there as during the Tanner fight, Grove routinely arose after being dropped. If Almeida can keep the fight on the ground, he easily wins. Otherwise, Grove will have a puncher's (or a chance of a knee or elbow) chance to win.

Winner: Kendall Grove, TKO, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris Since Almeida is widely known for his ground and BJJ game, I think Grove will want to stick with a strategy of keeping the fight standing and keeping the distance with his Muay Thai. I don't think Grove will want to get into a ground battle with a BJJ specialist like Almedia. And although Grove has suffered some bad KO losses, Almeida is not known for devastating or dangerous striking so that might be an advantage for Grove. And a win over Almeida while it wouldn't give Grove title status, would ensure he keeps his job for now and gets a higher profile opponent on the main card sooner or later.

Winner: Kendall Grove, Decision.

Samer Kadi: Kendall Grove looked on his way out of the UFC before an impressive win over Jason Day salvaged his career. Almeida was on the verge of a title shot before a split decision loss to Patrick Cote slowed down his march. He has rebounded well with a decent win over Matt Horwich, and despite talks of a move down to the 170 division Almeida remains a middleweight for the time being. While Grove's main weakness has always been his chin, Almeida isn't really the fighter to exploit it. Grove should control his aggression and avoid the take down, as Almeida is one of the premier BJJ fighters in the division. His stand up game does leave a lot to be desired and will ultimately be his downfall as Grove outpoints him on his way to a decision win.

Winner: Kendall Grove, Unanimous Decision.

Todd Bergman: This fight is pretty clear-cut to call. While Grove does have a weak chin, Almeida's striking is nothing to worry about. Grove has been submitted in the past but it came from more of a mistake other than being out-muscled. I see Grove using his steadily improving boxing to keep the distance while keeping the fight from going to the ground. I could be completely wrong in this, but I don't see Kendall losing this fight. It won't be a pretty or exciting fight, but Grove will win on the cards.

Winner: Kendall Grove, decision

Adam Tool: As we saw in his bout against Patrick Cote, Almeida seems to have lost a few steps during his years away from the sport. He's still going to own Grove on the ground if they go there, but the season 3 "TUF" champion has plenty of weapons in his arsenal when these two are on their feet. Also working in Grove's favor is the fact that Almeida doesn't pose much of a threat to Kendall's notoriously weak chin. I don't think Grove has the power to finish his opponent, but he should be able to do enough to pick up the judges' decision.

Winner: Kendall Grove, decision

Jeremy Lambert: I get the feeling that this fight is going to be very boring. Almeida hasn't look impressive since his UFC return and I just have no reason to care about Grove other than the fact I'd like to see him get a title shot because Grove vs. Silva could be a really fun massacre. I don't think Almeida will have too much trouble getting the fight to the ground because he's crafty enough in the clinch to get some type of takedown. If the fight hits the ground then the best Grove can do is survive because Almeida is leagues above him as a grappler. His long arms will likely get him in trouble and he'll leave one of them out there for Almeida to rip off.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Round Three

Matt Welch: Both fighters have seemingly righted the ship and fought their way back to main card status. Stylistically, the edge goes to Kendall Grove in this battle of striker vs. grappler. Grove has only been tapped once in his career and that was four years ago. He's improved a bit since then. We've seen Ricardo Almeida get out-pointed on the way to a lackluster decision loss by Patrick Cote, and Grove is long and rangy enough to do the same. Grove's shown vulnerabilities to strikers in the past and a striker Almeida ain't.

Winner: Kendall Grove, Unanimous Decision

Bill Wannop: This is a tough fight to call as Grove's weakness seems to be his chin, but Almeidas' striking will never be confused with that of Anderson Silva. Almeida's strength is on the ground, but getting Grove down, and being able to control the much bigger fighter may prove difficult. While I am not sold on either fighter getting into title contention any time soon, I see Almeida doing enough to gain the victory here

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Split Decision

Matt McEwen: Which Grove do we get? The one who toughed out a win over Evan Tanner and pounded Jason Day out of the UFC, or the one who needed those wins to save his career after two first round losses? As for Almeida, will we get the aggressive jiu jitsu practitioner who ended a lot of his earlier fights, or the guy who's been taken to decision in his last few fights? I would expect Grove's submission defense to be enough to avoid Almeida's biggest weapons, and to use his freakish reach advantage to pick Almeida apart on his way to his a decision win.

Winner: Grove, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Almeida will have to take this to the ground and submit Grove if he hopes to get the win. Grove however hasn't been tapped out in the past 4 years and appears to have decent submission defense. Grove will look to use his reach advantage and footwork to keep Almeida at bay and inflict damage on the feet. Cote was able to neutralize Almeida's offense, and I think if he employs the same game plan Grove will be able to do so as well.

Winner: Grove, Decision

Dan Plunkett: This could be Almeida's last fight at middleweight. Grove is a very tall middleweight at 6'6" and will have the striking advantage. On the ground, Almeida certainly has better credentials, but I think Grove will be able to dodge submissions. A win for Kendall here would be his third in a row, and a step in the right direction to fulfilling his potential.

Winner: Kendall Grove, Decision

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Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks

Patrick Mullin: After over a year Sadollah will make his PPV debut against two time NCAA Champion Johny Hendricks. Expect a ground fighting clinic here. While Sadollah seems like he could have a bright future and probably will, I feel Hendricks has too much to offer. He's a nightmare for Sadollah due to his wrestling which is perfectly suited to dominate a good submission fighter. I think he'll discourage Sadollah by the middle of round two and grind out a points victory to spoil Sadollah's debut.

Winner: Johny Hendricks, Unanimous decision

Jonathan Solomon: Does Amir Sadollah have a great dislike of wrestlers? If not, what did he do to deserve fighting another highly skilled one? The only fact we know about Sadollah's young career is he was good at submissions. It's been a year since his pro debut when he submitted C.B. Dolloway, can he do it again? Lightning may strike twice but Hendricks has been healthier and more active during that span. Hendricks' striking should take its toll on Sadollah who won't help but be taken down at will. The question then becomes, how good is Hendricks' submission defense? We shall find out this weekend.

Winner: Johnny Hendricks, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: I really like Amir a lot, and I've been wanting to see him fight again ever since the end of TUF 7 where he was the ultimate underdog and was beating experienced and seasoned veterans as well as wrestlers including the big favorite in CB Dolloway. Hendricks despite being new to the UFC is no joke. Hendricks has a strong wrestling pedigree, and he's undefeated thus far in his MMA career at 5-0. Hendricks has on 3 fights by TKO, 1 by sub, and 1 by submission so Hendricks is definitely not a joke nor a scrub. That said, despite all of Amir's troubles and injuries sidelining him from fighting for over a year, he did very well on the show against experienced wrestlers, and I think Amir will pull something off again and we will hopefully see some more of his unorthodox striking.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, Submission, Round 2.

Samer Kadi: Amir Sadollah finally makes his UFC PPV debut. Since submitting CB Dollaway over a year ago to become the season 7 winner of The Ultimate Fighter, Sadollah's career has been plagued by injuries. He'll be squaring off against Johnny Hendricks, a young and very talented wrestler. While it's almost never good to sit on the shelf for too long, Amir's layoff means he's had plenty of time to develop his skills. Both fighters are relative newcomers to the sport, so expect this to come down to a single rookie mistake. I see Hendricks being the first one to blink, leaving his head or arm exposed after a take down and getting submitted.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, Submission, Round 1.

Todd Bergman: It's been a long time since Amir Sadollah has fought in the Octagon. I think that his ring rust will play a major factor in this fight. In his last fight, Hendricks showed his ability to avoid submissions and continually push the pace besides nearly having his eye ripped out in the process. Amir looked good on The Ultimate Fighter, but it should be noted that he hasn't fought anyone the quality of Hendricks yet. However, I don't see Johny making the same mistakes that CB Dollaway made. Frankly, I don't see Johny finishing the fight, but I do see him continually taking down Amir and using his wrestling to control and win the fight on the cards.

Winner: Johny Hendricks, decision

Adam Tool: Hendricks brings a sound wrestling background and an edge in experience into this bout. His offense leaves something to be desired though, and should they remain standing I like Amir to take over with the Thai clinch. If Hendricks elects to take this one down he'll likely be forced to tap before long, as Sadollah has the ground skills to relentlessly go after any limbs left open.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, submission, round 1

Jeremy Lambert: I still believe that Amir will get injured just hours before the event and this fight will be scrapped but until that happens I guess I'll talk about it. Johny Hendricks is a great wrestler and can dictate where this fight takes place but Amir has good submissions and stand up. So it's almost a pick your poison situation for Hendricks. Given his wrestling instincts, I figure Hendricks will go for the quick takedown and end up caught in a submission.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, Submission, Round One

Matt Welch: At last, the post-"TUF" debut of Amir Sadollah and admittedly, I'm concerned for him. Amir seems like a really upstanding dude and exemplifies that gutsy underdog who just can't find a way to cheer against, but Johny Hendricks is no joke. A wrestling standout from Okie State, Hendricks has a style that has given Sadollah fits in the past. I just hearken back to Amir's two bouts against C.B. Dollaway and how easily Sadollah was put on his back. The problem with Dollaway was that we eventually learned that his submission defense is horrendous; a flaw yet to be exposed for Hendricks. Johny's going to be able to dictate the pace of this bout and I'd expect to see Amir fighting off his back more times than not during this bout. It's a survival act like did him wonders against C.B., but I'm not sure it'll work against Hendricks.

Winner: Johny Hendricks, Unanimous Decision

Bill Wannop: Hopefully Amir is able to make it to Saturday without getting injured, and if he can he has a tough fight against a former NCAA wrestler in Johny Hendricks. Sadollah just has that ability, where he is able to somehow pull out the victory, regardless of how much he is getting dominated. I see this fight playing out the way the fights with CB did. Sadollah will be getting dominated on the ground and will somehow be able to pull off a submission victory.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, Submission, Round 3

Matt McEwen: I have no idea what we're going to get out of Amir Sadollah. He's only had one actual fight in his career, and that was over a year ago. We know he's tough, though, and that's unlikely to have changed, but hopefully his striking has become more technical. His submission game is good, but we're basing that off of two submission wins over CB Dolloway, who has proven to not have the best sub defense in the sport. And he'll be needing the ground skills - Hendricks is a two time NCAA wrestling champion, so you can bet he will be putting Sadollah on his back. So we know where they'll end up, but what happens when they get there?

Winner: Hendricks, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Hendricks is a WEC transplant and this will be his first fight in the UFC. He's a two time NCAA Division I wrestler and will probably look to control Sadollah on the ground. Sadollah on the other hand is pretty good at dealing with wrestlers (ask CB Dolloway) though I do expect a certain amount of ring (octagon?) rust since he hasn't competed since June of last year. Sadollah will have to try to keep Hendricks from controlling and punishing him on the ground. Hendricks will also have an advantage when it comes to experience. This will be a tough fight for Amir, and while I hate to pick against him, I think Hendricks has more tools to win this fight as long as he can avoid the submission.

Winner: Hendricks, Decision.

Dan Plunkett: Sadollah will finally fight! I'm excited to see Amir fight, he's a good fighter that puts on good fights. Hendricks is a great wrestler, though Sadollah is no stranger to great wrestlers training at Xtreme Couture and coming off two wins against CB Dollaway. I could see Hendricks winning a decision, but I think Sadollah will pull off another submission.

Winner: Amir Sadollah, Submission, Round 2

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Light Heavyweight bout: Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin


Patrick Mullin: This will undoubtedly be Anderson's toughest octagon opponent to date. For once Anderson will be fighting a much bigger guy in Forrest who cuts 25 pounds to get down to 205, and also possesses some of the most well rounded skills in all of MMA. However, Anderson's safety first nature leads me to favor him because I feel it will allow him to better capitalize on a mistake that the forced aggressor, Forrest, will make at some point.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 3.

Jonathan Solomon: Griffin is one of the most entertaining fighters out there because he goes into the octagon to bang. He did it with Stephan Bonnar in their famous first encounter, he did it with Tito Ortiz and Quinton Jackson and most recently with Rashad Evans. Now he faces arguably the best fighter in the world. Griffin will be bigger than Anderson Silva so that poses an interesting difference that we have not seen. Regardless, Silva's muay-thai strikes are as lethal as any other. Will Griffin get close to Silva to try to dirty box? He will have to fight off Silva's own attempts at a clinch. Griffin loves to get hit to make him focus more clearly, but I doubt he will be able to take many shots from Silva before he goes to sleep. Still, I always point to this: Silva's biggest weakness has been on the ground during this amazing run. Forrest Griffin is not exactly known for being an excellent wrestler or excellent jiu-jitsu practitioner. Just plain good will not beat Silva.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris: I will no longer root for the Spider ever again after his last two performances. And even though I am not a big fan of Griffin, I am pulling for him to get another miraculous upset of the year for this fight. I don't know what is wrong with Spider with his ghastly performances with Cote and Leites, and all this crap about wanting to be a pro boxer. Why does Spider want to be a boxer so badly and fight an old past his prime boxer in his 40's? Spider needs to stop worrying about stupid contracts to fight Roy Jones Jr. and focus on being in the prime of his MMA career. He's not facing Roy Jones Jr. on Saturday. He's facing Forrest Griffin. And then he'll be facing Dan Henderson who will take away his title, but then I guess he can fight a 43 year old Roy Jones when he finishes out his UFC career.

Winner: Forrest Griffin, Decision.

Samer Kadi: Anderson Silva "earns" another trip to the light heavyweight division after to lackluster performances against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites. The UFC was looking for someone to push "The Spider" all the while being a serious threat. As a former UFC light heavyweight champion who's notorious for having great fights and never backing away, Forrest Griffin certainly fits that description. One of the most important factors in this fight is obviously Forrest's size. In my opinion, Forrest's best bet would be to take Anderson down and wear him out. We still don't know much about Anderson's cardio (although there's no reason to suggest that he's not always in top condition) and how he would react to someone as heavy as Griffin on top of him. However this fight isn't a five rounder, so Forrest needs to adjust his gameplan accordingly as he can't afford to drop a round. While Forrest does have the ability to take Silva down, he would have to test him out in the stand up first. The main concern for Forrest is finding himself staring at the ceiling before ever getting the chance to get a hold of Anderson's timing and adjusting to his style. Forrest's striking is similar to a certain Rich Franklin, a fighter Silva destroyed twice. He doesn't necessarily have a lot of power in his hands, but he likes to mix his striking up, throwing combinations and finishing with kicks. If he does that against Anderson, he's doomed. But you can't expect Anderson to have an easy time bullying Forrest in the clinch the way he was able to against "Ace". While Forrest will undoubtedly come in with a good gameplan and will likely execute it for a period of time, a motivated Silva is just too deadly.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 3.

Todd Bergman: I've made no bones about the fact that I believe Forrest Griffin can win this fight. However, for that to happen, Forrest will have to make it out of the 1st round. I don't see that happening simply because Griffin is a notoriously slow-starter. Forrest can't afford to take many clean shots from Silva whose striking accuracy is extremely scary. If the fight goes past the 1st round, you'd better believe that Forrest will win the fight. I don't see that happening as Anderson finishes off Forrest with brutal strikes. It is also possible for Silva to gain a Light Heavyweight title shot with a victory here if Rua is able to beat Machida, regardless of his Middleweight title situation.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, 1st round

Adam Tool: Fun fact: this is the first time in his UFC career that Silva will be fighting outside of the main event. Much as we may love Forrest Griffin, he's in for the fight of his life here. While Forrest may have been able to use his range to pick his shots against previous opponents, that kind of strategy will get him into a world of hurt against "The Spider." To me it seems like Griffin's best chance of winning this would be to take Silva down and keep him there for 15 minutes. That's easier said than done, and I think it'll likely be another highlight reel finish for the UFC Middleweight Champion.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, round 2

Jeremy Lambert: The true main event of the evening. You can never count out Griffin when he's the underdog and he's catching Silva at the perfect time. Silva just doesn't seem interested in MMA right now. He's looked bored in his last two fights (that might be because he looked at his opponents as non-threatening) and he's talking more about boxing than he is MMA. If Silva is content on going through the motions in this fight, he's going to lose because you know Griffin is going to bring it. Griffin's best chance at winning is to get Silva on the ground, control him, and wear him down. Even though he's not the brawler he once was, Griffin still has a brawling tendency when he gets hit. I think that will be his downfall in this fight. Personally, I hope Griffin wins because the reaction in the building will be HUGE and I want to be part of that.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round Two

Matt Welch: After two lackluster showings against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites, Anderson Silva now squares off against an opponent tailor-made to raise his stock. While Forrest Griffin is hardly the wild pseudo-brawler that he was back in 2005-06, he's not someone who will shy away from engaging with Silva and that was what dragged the Leites and Cote fights out longer than they should have. By nature, Silva is a counter-striker and has risen to the top of the pound-for-pound ranks in some circles because he is precise and versatile when fighters try and engage with him. Griffin has gotten much smarter with his striking and lest we forget, he was winning the Rashad Evans fight until things went to the ground. But he's too much of a bad match for someone like Anderson. Griffin has shocked the world in the past and no doubt a win over Silva isn't totally out of left field. It's just that this is Anderson friggin' Silva…ya know, the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 2

Bill Wannop: This fight to me has more intrigue then the main event with everyone expecting it to be action packed and end quickly. I feel it could go two ways. The first is that Griffin comes out balls to the wall and is aggressive against Silva. The second is if Griffin follows the game plan laid out by Xtreme Couture and comes out very cautious, looking to wear down Silva with leg/body kicks and push this fight to the third round. If the first scenario plays out, Silva will win. If the second scenario plays out I can see Griffin picking up the decision victory. It all depends if Griffin can stay disciplined, but I believe he will break down at some point in the fight and start throwing wild punches at which point Silva will end it quickly.

Winner: Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 2

Matt McEwen: The guy who finally beats Silva is not going to be someone who gets into a boxing and/or muay thai fight. He is, however, going to be someone who can lay out a gameplan, stick to it, force the issue and get in close and make the stand up portion of the fight more a brawl than a technical battle. It would help, as well, if he were big enough and strong enough to avoid being dominated if caught in the Thai plumb. Griffin might the guy to do that. Some have discounted the size advantage he has, but Silva is the 185lb champ - there is NO way Griffin could cut the extra 20lbs to get down to middleweight. He is bigger, and that will be part of his gameplan. If he is able to force the issue on the feet and get close, he will want to get the fight down to the ground where he can use his size, underrated jiu jitsu and wrestling to control Silva, much like Dan Henderson did in the first round of his fight. I would imagine that Randy Couture has been game planning a fight against Silva for quite a while, and he will have given those insights to Griffin. If I were a betting man, I'd drop a few on Griffin, who I think is going to pull out an impressive upset, and build a lot of interest in his eventual fight with Lyoto Machida. Call me crazy, but my gut says:

Winner: Forrest Griffin, 2nd Round TKO

Scott Kuczkowski: I'm predicting that the Anderson Silva who will show up for this fight will be much different than the Anderson Silva who defended his title against Cote and Leites. I predict Silva will have vicious intentions and will look to make a statement against Forrest Griffin. Griffin is a brawler and might want to stand and trade with Silva and I think this will turn out to be a mistake. While I know Griffin is great on the ground, he has to get past Silva's knees to get things to the ground and I'm not sure he can do that. History has shown that Griffin can be stopped via strikes (Evans and Jardine), and I predict that Silva will probably follow suit, maybe very quickly.

Winner: Silva, TKO, Round 1.

Dan Plunkett: I have high expectations for this fight. Everybody's seen Anderson's last two fights, but I'm confident that this fight will be much better. Forrest always comes to fight, and when his opponent comes to fight Anderson comes to kill. I believe Forrest can beat Anderson, it will be very hard and he'll have to fight very well, but it's possible. The popular thinking is that Anderson will kill anybody in a stand-up fight. While I don't think that's necessarily true I would certainly give him the striking advantage. If this fight goes to the ground, Anderson will be the one on his back...unless he knocks Forrest down of course. I think Forrest can control Anderson from the top, though Silva does have a very solid bottom game. Forrest has been knocked out before, he's coming off of a TKO loss, and I think we see the return of that killer Anderson Silva on Saturday.

Winner: Anderson Silva, KO, Round 2.

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UFC Lightweight Championship bout: BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian

Patrick Mullin: This is expected to be the real gauge of just how far Kenny Florian has come and just how good B.J. Penn really is. While some have questioned B.J.'s commitment to training, from what I've seen he's never taken a fight more seriously. Kenny is a gym rat and works his ass off and this fight seems like it's going to push him even that much harder in the gym. However, I just think B.J. at 155 is unbeatable and he's going to push Kenny further away from him with each passing round showing the disparity in their skill sets until he stops him.

Winner: B.J. Penn, KO, Round 4.

Jonathan Solomon: Here we go~! It feels like ages since we last saw Penn defend his 155 championship. Now he faces his toughest opponent as a lightweight when the improved Kenny Florian tries to beat the master. Penn's camp say he has had the best training for a fight ever. Yeah right. We'll see how well he looks once the bell rings. Despite that, Penn is still B.J. Penn. His jiu-jitsu is awesome, he's tough to take down (unless your name is GSP) and he can box. Kenny Florian's key will be those championship rounds, which he has to get to first. It's no secret that Penn usually gasses late in a fight. In lightweight championship fights that have gone the distance, Penn is 0-1-1 (lost to Pulver & a draw with Uno). Florian's elbows and muay-thai skills should help him score points with the judges over the course of the fight. His goal should not be to go in there and take Penn out ASAP. He wants to show he is on the same level as the champion and what better way to do that then take him out over the course of twenty-five minutes? The key of this fight will be how dominant Penn's ground game will be. Can Florian contain Penn's attempts to end the fight with a rear naked choke or can Florian even take him down to begin with (if he wants to)? Looking into the future, if Penn retains, who can beat him? The next top contenders are Diego Sanchez and Frank Edgar. Can either stop the best Hawaiian MMA fighter of all-time?

Winner: Your NEW UFC Lightweight Champion Kenny Florian, TKO, Round 5.

Jeffrey Harris: I truly believe when he's motivated at lightweight, BJ Penn is truly an unstoppable monster. He's looked like he's in great shape for this fight, and he's jumping out of a 3 foot pool! I was disappointed with how much he had to push the grease-gate nonsense, but BJ has to realize that he's too undersized to be a welterweight in this day and age and he is the top dawg at lightweight. I look forward to seeing him destroy the plucky Florian that wants to kill the master. Hopefully after the fight, BJ Penn will be licking blood of the fallen Florian off his gloves and then start yelling, "WHO IS THE MASTER?! WHO IS THE MASTER?!"

Winner: BJ Penn, murderous submission, Round 2.

Samer Kadi: BJ Penn puts the lightweight title on the line for the first time since May 2008 when he defeated Sean Sherk to retain his title. Coming off a one sided beat down at the hands of Georges St. Pierre, Penn will be motivated and eager to step right back in the Octagon as he bids to erase the memories of the GSP loss and the subsequent debacle. Kenny Florian is undoubtedly the most dangerous challenger for BJ's title in the UFC 155 division. Kenny's striking might be the difference in this fight. If he could outpoint BJ for the first few rounds and drag it into the championship rounds, he has a chance. BJ's no slouch in the striking area, as he has some of the most refined boxing in the division. He also packs up the more powerful punch and can end Kenny's night with a flurry. Florian on the other hand will have to rely on his Muay Thai skills and excellent footwork. Expect Kenny to use his wide array of kicks to keep Penn at bay, and look to utilize knees and razor shark elbows whenever Penn closes the distance. BJ will be the stronger fighter of the two in my opinion, and if he can manage to put Kenny on his back, I fear for Florian's chances. BJ has a brutal top game, overwhelming opponents with strikes, top notch grappling and submissions. Kenny is a BJJ black belt himself and a fine grappler himself, but he doesn't want to be on his back with BJ Penn on top of him. GSP and Matt Hughes showed that the key to beat Penn is to put him on his back and tire him out, but I don't see Kenny being able to do that. Florian finishes fights, but he mainly does so on the ground from the top position. As dangerous as Kenny is, BJ is just too much for him in my opinion. A granite chin, thick skin and unbelievable talent, Penn is just a bad match up for Kenny.

Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 3.

Todd Bergman: BJ Penn is one of my favorite fighters and I'm not shy about mentioning that every time that Penn fights. I'm also picking Penn to win this fight, but it's not because I'm a nut hugger. It's because I don't think that Florian will deal well with adversity. Kenny showed this in his fight against Diego Sanchez. Of course that fight took place at a completely different weight class, and Kenny himself has improved a great deal. While he has improved a great deal, Kenny has done nothing but dominate his opponents and he won't have that luxury in this fight. The only way that I see Kenny winning this fight is on the score cards. That's not the best strategy to have when you are fighting one of the best fighters in the world. This fight should look similar to the Penn vs. Stevenson fight which featured a lot of blood and a finish via submission. Penn's hand will be raised and that brings on "The Nightmare."

Winner: Still UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn, Submission, 2nd round

Adam Tool: If the only time you've seen Penn fight was earlier this year against Georges St. Pierre, then it's likely that you're taking Florian to win here. While Kenny has shown dramatic improvements since his early career, there's a few facts that shouldn't be overlooked. Penn has not lost a fight at lightweight since January of 2002. At that time, Florian wasn't even a professional fighter yet. Kenny has great Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but again, BJ was winning world championships while "KenFlo" was still working towards his black belt. Florian doesn't have the strength to match GSP, so it's going to be all-but-impossible for him to take Penn down. Kenny could elect to keep things standing and turn this into a kickboxing match, but BJ has a chin of granite and deceptive power in all of his limbs. Simply put I'm picking Penn to win this fight, as I would pick him to beat anyone in the world at 155 lbs.

Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, round 3

Jeremy Lambert: I've said this plenty of times but I still stand by it: whoever wins the first round will win this fight. BJ Penn is better than Kenny Florian at almost every aspect of MMA. Florian's best chance at winning is to use a lot of body kicks and just wear down Penn on the feet. He won't be able to take him down early and even if he could, he's not big enough or strong enough to really do a lot of damage on top of Penn. A lot of people are doubting Penn right now because of his UFC 94 performance but this is still BJ Penn and he lost to Georges Fuckin St. Pierre, a guy a full weight class above him. He's still extremely well rounded, he still has amazing jiu-jitsu, and he's still the best Lightweight in the world. Unless GSP mentally beat Penn into retirement, Penn should win this fight.

Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round Two

Matt Welch: What has become the UFC's biggest afterthought of a title is finally set to be defended. And it only took 15 months. By all accounts, B.J. Penn has zapped the negative from Georges St. Pierre fight from his memory and is now using that as fuel to come out of the gates with a vengeance Saturday night. We've seen what it takes to beat Penn and most of it are things that can be sought after at 170 pounds, where Penn has clearly shown to be out of his element, as his 1-3 record as a UFC welterweight would suggest. Penn's usual issues, namely cardio, haven't proven to much of a deficiency since his return to 155 pounds and when they talk about a fighter being a perfect fit for a certain weight class, Penn is right on the money at 155. Kenny Florian is not Georges St. Pierre and doesn't have that physical brute force that can wear Penn down. In fact, when comparing these fighters skill sets on paper, there really isn't much that favors Florian. This is of course, if both fighters put forth their best effort on Saturday. In a fight like that, Penn wins at least 7 times out of 10. Florian's best hope is to use his superior technical striking and Muay Thai to carry things into the championship rounds; an area Penn has never been at 155. The problem is, will it get there?

Winner: B.J. Penn, Submission, Round 3

Bill Wannop: For me personally, this fight is a huge mismatch. The only way I see BJ Penn losing is if he beats himself and looks past this fight, which he may. Penn has the advantage on the feet and on the ground with the only advantage Florian has is his razor sharp elbows and conditioning. The only ways I can see Florian winning this fight is by doctors' stoppage due to a cut from an elbow strike or if Penn overlooked Florian and Kenny simply uses his cardio to out work him and earn the decision. I think Penn is overlooking Florian, but I still think he will pull off the victory. It will then set up a meeting with the only person right now in the lightweight division I see as a threat to Penn's title in Diego Sanchez.

Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round 2

Matt McEwen: It seems like Florian has been fighting with his title shot on the line for a long time, and essentially he's defended his title shot twice while waiting for BJ to finally defend the belt. And now the time has come. Since his title loss to Sean Sherk, Florian has improved by leaps and bounds, and you can tell he takes every aspect of his training seriously. It has shown in his impressive muay thai, his improved wrestling and his always good submission game. But is he really in Penn's class? A look at mutual opponents would say yes, as he lasted 5 rounds against Sherk with a fraction of the skills he has now, and put Joe Stevenson away quicker than BJ did when he won the title. But, when it comes right down to it, as much as I am a Florian fan and will be cheering for him Saturday night, I don't see him taking the belt away from Penn. BJ was embarrassed by GSP in the "Fight of the Century" earlier this year, and if that wasn't motivation enough for a good showing, he has talked himself into thinking there is a huge grudge between he and Florian now. Look for BJ's boxing to allow him to gradually take control of the fight before he takes it to the ground and tests Florian's submission defense. And if it goes into the late rounds....lighweight BJ has much better cardio than welterweight BJ.

Winner: Penn, submission, Round 3

Scott Kuczkowski: The big question in this fight will be BJ's conditioning. If BJ comes into this fight in great shape and prepared, then it will be a tough fight for Kenny Florian. If BJ doesn't take this fight seriously, then I could see him leaving without his title. BJ has only been stopped by strikes or by doctor stoppage, which means Florian would have to pound out a victory to take his title or outwork him for 5 rounds to get the decision. While I think BJ will be better on the ground, I don't think he'll have enough of an advantage that he will finish Florian easily. On the feet I give the advantage to Florian, whom I expect to use striking and footwork to wear out BJ and try to take things into the later rounds. BJ might end up being a beast much like he was against Stevenson, but I think Florian is a different breed than Stevenson and won't wilt like he did. I think we'll have a new Lightweight Champion at the end of this one.

Winner: Florian, Decision.

Dan Plunkett: It's been stated many times in the build to this fight that Kenny Florian is much better now than he was when he fought Sean Sherk. That is a true statement. However, he's no BJ Penn. I believe that BJ is by far the best lightweight in the world. His ground game is great, he has very good wrestling, and great boxing. On top of that, he rarely gets cut, he has an incredible chin, and his cardio should be fine for the fight. I think Kenny could give BJ some problems with his kicks and in the clinch, but BJ should be able to overcome that. I think BJ finishes this one in the mount.

Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 3


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