Tapping Out With TBerg 08.07.09: Episode XLIII: UFC & WEC Upset Watch

Posted by Todd Bergman on 08.07.2009

Griffin over Silva? Florian over Penn? Maybe even Bowles over Torres? 411’s Todd Bergman breaks down the 5 best chances for upsets on this weekend’s UFC & WEC cards in this edition of Tapping out with TBerg.

Last month, I decided to take a look at the possible upsets that could occur at UFC 100. The article was met with a lot of positive feedback, so this week, I'm going to be breaking down the best possible choices for upsets on the UFC 101 and the WEC 42 cards happening this weekend. It's a rare treat when two big MMA shows happen on the same weekend; however, since Zuffa owns the WEC, it seems like a smart financial option to include the minor league (WEC) card on the same weekend with the big league (UFC) card. Most of the higher-ups at Zuffa assume that many of the same people watching the UFC card will more than likely check out the WEC card the next night. The unlimited advertising options for the WEC card is also a huge positive. Being on the Versus channel is nice, but a great deal of people don't watch the channel and thus won't see the commercials advertising the show. Another way to look at the back-to-back pairing is that some people might not even know about the WEC, and after the UFC advertises it, they might be more willing to tune in. It's going to be a fantastic weekend that could feature a handful or more of some crazy upsets. I'm lumping both cards into one and taking a look at the possible upsets. Here are the Top 5 upsets that I can see happening this weekend.


5.) Johny Hendricks

Sure his first name is spelled kind of crazy, but Johny Hendricks is a monster and has the right skill set to beat the favored Amir Sadollah at UFC 101. Hendricks is a fantastic wrestler whose striking has come a long way in his short fighting career. Sadollah will be coming off a long injury-induced lay off compiled with a move to another weight class to top it all off. These are the kinds of situations in which upsets happen. A win for Hendricks here will rebuild the credibility that Team Takedown has lost over the past year due to poor performances and will further prove that winning The Ultimate Fighter doesn't really mean anything to anyone.

Chances for upset:Tepid. I love Hendricks wrestling ability, but he only needs to make one mistake for Sadollah to make him pay. Don't bet your house T-bags.


4.) John Howard

Coming into his UFC 94 bout with Chris Wilson, not very many people were giving Howard a chance. Doomsday proved on that night that a strong wrestling game mixed with some heavy hands can go a long way towards securing an upset victory. The name of the game is very similar in this fight against Tamdan McCrory. The long-limbed and very unique McCrory is a tremendous BJJ fighter whose striking leaves much to be desired. Howard will want to get in close and use the clinch to secure takedowns and to keep Tamdan off balance. McCrory hasn't fought anyone as strong or as explosive as Howard, so the ball is in Howard's court. Howard is a very hard-nosed and smart fighter, while McCrory seems to get very emotional and sometimes reckless in his fights. It's for that reason that this fight lands on the list at number four.

Chances of upset:Luke Warm. Similar to the Hendricks vs. Amir fight except that Howard's conditioning is top-notch and should be a hand full for the Cartoon Network loving Barn Cat.


3.) Kenny Florian

This one doesn't land at #1 like some of you probably thought; however, given that his opponent is BJ Penn, Kenny Florian has to qualify for this list. I went on record in the roundtable to proclaim that Penn will win this fight in the 2nd round, but you never truly know which Penn will show up. For all the overlooking that Florian is getting, for myself, it should be noted, that Florian is a true master of the game and always comes in with a strong game plan. The longer the fight goes, the better it is for Kenny. Penn has been busy jumping out of pools recently, so maybe he isn't taking this fight as seriously as he did the first GSP fight. For Florian to win this fight, he will need to get Penn down and tire him out. Kenny has decent Muay Thai but it won't be much of a match for the boxing of Penn. Talking about getting the fight to the ground and actually do so against Penn is a horse of another color. Florian isn't a strong wrestler, so I doubt that he will have the strength advantage; however, he might have the bigger heart and sometimes that can win you a fight. We shall all see on Saturday night.

Chances of upset:Warm. BJ Penn is in my Top 5 favorite fighters, but I know that he can be a head case sometimes. Kenny has been known to finish fights so there's always a chance that he can outpoint Penn with Cecil People's at the judges' table.


2.) Forrest Griffin

You probably thought that after reading Florian at #3 this fight would be #1, well not so fast my friend. I've never really liked Forrest Griffin and I know that I'm one of the few that feel that way but I just can't stand the over-the-top amounts of love that he receives. It probably goes back to the Ortiz fight in which the crowd and announcers greatly influenced everyone's opinions with their biased cheering. The addition of Bonnar to that announcing team combined with Rogan becoming Griffin's biggest cheerleader was too much for me to handle. My revenge was the Keith Jardine fight in which Forrest showed zero class but yet wasn't criticized like Lesnar has recently been. Time for me to get off of my soapbox and break down the chances of an upset here. Anderson Silva is the best fighter on the planet. Forget what you have witnessed in his last couple of fights because he wasn't fighting anyone at his level. The biggest advantage that Silva will have in this fight is his reach and accuracy of strikes. Forrest is traditionally known as a slow-starter and only shows his true nature when the fight goes longer. He won't have that luxury against Anderson in this fight. Silva's camp has come out and said that they expect to see Forrest going for a takedown early in the fight to slow down Anderson, much like Dan Henderson did. It's possible that could happen, but would Anderson be at a disadvantage there? I think that he could easily finish this fight from the ground just as easy as he could with a strike; however, everyone will point to the Travis Lutter fight as Silva was taken down and held there and even mounted. Griffin again will have the crowd behind him as Silva has become public enemy #2 in the UFC as of late. Add in the fact that the crowd will more than likely be chanting U-S-A throughout the whole fight and you have the makings of an upset. I would like to point out that this isn't pro wrestling so no one really cares where the fighters are from, but tell that to a bunch of drunken Philadelphians. This is the same crowd that cheered when Michael Irvin was howled off the field on a stretcher and who could forget the epic booing of Santa Claus. I'm still hoping for a small ECW chant when someone starts bleeding to further my point, but that might be pushing it. Anyway, Griffin's ability to tough it out and get stronger as the fight goes on combined with Silva's real lack of a challenge inside the UFC has everyone talking about the possibility of an upset here. I could see Forrest winning the fight by decision just as easy as I can see Anderson turning out Griffin's lights. Much like the Florian vs. Penn fight, the longer it goes the more it favors the underdog. If Forrest does win, let's hope for a pre-fight interview that isn't profanity lased, just for the simple fact that some bonehead in LA will write another column bashing MMA.

Chances of upset: Warm. It's like the feeling you had when Carano's Dad dropped her towel at the weigh-ins way back when.


1.) Brian Bowles

I know that some of you are going to ask the question: who the hell is Brian Bowles? Well, he's going to be the WEC Bantamweight Champion after Sunday. That's right, I'm one of the 5 guys who are going to predict this upset. It's not because I don't like Miguel Torres, it's just that I haven't been impressed with him recently. Torres is tremendous on the ground but his stand up has looked insanely average to say the least. His footwork resembles a robot as he's very stiff and not fluid at all. Brian Bowles is the Bantamweight version of Mike Brown: great at everything and has tons of power in his hands. Brian also has a pretty cool southern ascent as well, which makes the post fight interview so much more entertaining. Obviously, keeping the fight standing is something that Bowles will want to do, but it shouldn't be hard if Torres falls in love with his stand up like he has been doing recently. If you're still not a believer in Bowles, then take a look back at his fight with Will Ribeiro. Will was expected to walk in and exploit everything in Brian's game, but that didn't happen. Bowles clubbed Ribeiro repeatedly with heavy strikes and then finished the fight with a slick choke. It's not often that I go out on a limb and pick against the dominate champion but I think that this rivalry is just starting between the two and there should at least be a trilogy of fights before it's all said and done. As for the finish, I like Bowles to slowly pick Torres apart and finally get the finish mid-way through the 4th round.

Chanes of upset: Steamy. Much like the leaked Vanessa Hudgens pictures that graced your computer for hours upon end on Wednesday morning.



Last week, I took on the topic of the Dana White press conference and the potential announcements that were to be made. A few of you had some good comments, so let's have a look at them below.

paco smith is my favorite person ever: Fedor vs Shane Carwin. Who the fuck would pay for that? Fedor is a nobody, if he fights Brock it'll only sell because of Brock, not that fat shit Fedor. I hope Dana tells him and M-1 to fuck off.

I first want to say that I applaud your original idea, Mr. Smith. I think that you're a great asset to the 411 fan base because you speak your mind. I would pay for the Carwin vs. Fedor fight just as many hundreds of thousands of others would. As I stated previously in my column, I think that Fedor would benefit from Brock's popularity and Brock would be the big draw as he continues to be.

el_polio_loco wants to know: dos santos?????????? really dude? he looks like a good fighter and if he beats cro cop he can take the next step but i just don't see that as a fight that screams "WATCH ME!!!!" i rather watch fedor fight mir or the winner of velazques and carwin.

Man, the Mexican community hates me for some reason. Well, not really but yes, I think that dos Santos is the real deal. He destroyed Werdum, who is being talked about as a "quality" addition to the Strikeforce Heavyweight division if you can believe that. However, at the time of their fight, Werdum was the supposed #1 contender after beating Gonzaga and was openly criticized for taking the fight with dos Santos. There's no question in my mind that dos Santos will destroy CroCop in their upcoming fight. I don't think that Mirko brings anything to the table and won't be able to handle the power of dos Santos. I would love to see Carwin vs. Fedor as I stated in the above comment. I don't think that Frank Mir will get another shot at the title because I don't think that he can beat Nog again or Randy Couture. Carwin and dos Santos, for this reason, would become the most logical, had Fedor signed with the UFC.

wtf again says again: Thanks for the response. I agree with a lot of the things you have said and one of those is Dos Santos. I'm picking him to beat Cro Cop and a match with Fedor could be exciting because Dos Santos has that One punch KO ability and so could finish any fighter, including Fedor with that one punch. I think he needs a bit more experience because we haven't seen him tested on the ground but he trains at a brilliant camp who are renowned for excellent JJ so he has to be half-decent. As for UFC 103, the card looks good but it needs a main event that will draw viewers in, Tito fits the bill perfectly since he is a big name and personality. I would pick Franklin to win the fight and move himself up the rankings.

Your comments are always welcome here, that's why I offer the Talking T-bags segment each week. I really wish that White would've announced that Tito was going to fight Rich at UFC 103, but from what I understand, Tito's injures still aren't 100% healed and Ortiz will instead fight Mark Coleman sometime in December. If the UFC were smart they would put that fight on an Ultimate Fight Night instead of a Pay-Per view because the match up could be devastatingly boring, but given Tito's ability to hype and sell a card, it's going to be on Pay-Per view. The Vitor vs. Franklin fight does nothing for me and basically guarantees someone will lose a lot of momentum while fighting for a made-up weight class.

That does it for this week's edition of Tapping out with TBerg. Who do you think has the best chance to pull off an upset this weekend and why? Make sure to state your opinions below. Best of luck to my #4 favorite fighter Ed "9mm" Ratcliff this weekend at WEC 42. Enjoy UFC 101 and WEC 42 this weekend as well. Remember to support your local MMA and keep your tapping hand strong.