The Blueprint: 8.27.09: The Prodigal Son Denied

Posted by Patrick Mullin on 08.27.2009

BJ Penn seems unbeatable at 155 these days, and is considered the top dog at that weight. So who will be the man to take out the lightweight king? 411’s Patrick Mullin breaks down the Prodigy and names three men that could take the title from him!

The Blueprint: Prodigal Son Denied

Still here huh? Good because we're just picking up steam! Welcome readers and as always, this is The Blueprint! The top MMA fighters in the world all have moments of seeming invincibility. The problem is that nobody is invincible, and if you don't believe it this is the column to read.

We're moving back to the UFC this week as we received almost no commentary while looking at WEC champions Brian Bowles and Mike Brown. On a side note, I find this alarming. Is the UFC that much of a juggernaut that people really don't care about WEC, DREAM, or even Strikeforce? That's pretty alarming.

Anyway let's get to our subject, the man who dominated Kenny Florian at UFC 101. At 155 pounds I think its safe to say that B.J. Penn is head and shoulders above the majority of the pack, and is the undisputed top fighter in the division. Just take a look at his last performance if you don't believe me. Many thought that Kenny Florian would provide B.J. with his toughest challenge to date for the lightweight title, and some even picked Florian to dethrone B.J. even amongst our own staff. B.J. hardly missed a strike, took virtually no damage, didn't get winded, and took Florian down on his first attempt following up by choking him for the win.



Once again true believers, we find ourselves backed against the wall trying to spot weaknesses in a fighter who its believed is unable to be beaten. Not a problem though, we've been down this road before and we've come to like taking the road less traveled by. Let's hook em up!

1) Conditioning - Despite Joe Rogan's ridiculous claims during the Florian fight, B.J. was actually in superb cardiovascular condition. He didn't get winded, fought at a great pace, and was fresh as a daisy and strong as a bull in the final round. Kenny Florian and his camp headed up by his brother and Mark Dellagrote were banking on Penn showing up out of shape and they had no Plan B when they saw B.J. was in tiptop condition. It showed a complete lack of professionalism from Dellagrote (which we're used to by now), and a complete lack of mental aptitude from Florian.



It may seem like B.J.'s conditioning isn't a weakness and that I'm contradicting myself here. I'm not so just bare with me for a moment. Penn's cardiovascular condition can still be taken advantage of. Florian's strategy to tire B.J. out was to clinch him against the cage and put his weight on him. This allowed B.J. to relax and not really have to work at a pace that was consistent. B.J. could simply open up and fight sporadically and with Florian not striking back or attempting submissions, not only was he losing rounds but also he was sacrificing far more than he was gaining. You can tire B.J. out, just not by only attempting takedowns and leaning your weight on him.

You have to push the pace and not allow B.J. to rest on his laurels and think about what he's going to do to you. Attack, attack, attack, and then what you should do is attack again. Don't do what Sean Sherk did and swing blindly without setting things up. Work behind a jab and some leg kicks. Punch and kick your way in using angles constantly, and when you can back B.J. up against the cage work his body over. Get a collar tie and drive shovel hooks into his ribs.

From there, attempt half-hearted takedown attempts when B.J. can escape and stay vertical. B.J. is a BJJ master, but we all know he likes to keep things standing. Use that against him and throw some takedown attempts his way just to keep him guessing and not allow him to predict your rhythm. If B.J. can't think, he needs to rely on pure physical abilities. If the pace is being pushed and he gets tired, his physical abilities won't be up to par.

2) Lay and Pray…Literally - B.J. can be taken down, and you don't have to be Georges St. Pierre to do it. B.J.'s BJJ is as said by many, "on another level." Sometimes this allows him to become complacent if taken down because of how comfortable he is on his back. The 155-pound division is arguably the most grappler heavy in the UFC, which includes a stacked division of heavyweight grapplers. You have several wrestlers like Clay Guida, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, and Sean Sherk for example. You also have grapplers with outstanding top games like Diego Sanchez, Tyson Griffin, Nate Diaz, and Joe Lauzon to boot.



You can't afford to be taken down by these guys if you can outclass all of them standing up, which Baby Jay can do. But what all of these guys are so good at even when fighting a guy with a great guard or amazing takedown defense, they can still get them to the mat and smother them. In American MMA scoring top position tends to win despite what work happens from the bottom. Get B.J. down, get on top of him, and stall. The referee won't deduct any points, they'll take their sweet time standing you up because MMA referees are lenient to lay and pray, and ignore the boos because you're about to get paid and become champion of the world.

Yeah, only two weaknesses but they're substantial ones that could plague Penn in a division this deep with talent. So who can do it? Let's find out.

Who Can Beat Him?


Gray Maynard 2:1 - Maynard gets better with every fight, and what an interesting story this would make. UFC fans first knew Maynard when Penn picked Maynard to be a part of his team on TUF and thought Maynard would win it all. Maynard had a raw wrestling talent but now he's a well-rounded mixed martial artist. He's arguably the best wrestler in the lightweight division, completely outwrestling fellow amateur stand out Frankie Edgar in a bout that still stands as Edgar's lone defeat.

He's been able to nullify the submission capabilities of Rich Clementi, and showed stand-up versatility in his bout with standout wrestler Jim Miller. He showed amazing sprawl and kept the fight standing, punishing Miller with body shot combinations to win a unanimous decision. The only knock on him is finishing power, but it wouldn't be smart to get stupid and try finishing B.J. unless it's a lock. Outpoint him or make him quit on his stool.


Diego Sanchez 3:1 - Since leaving Greg Jackson and dropping to 155 pounds, Diego Sanchez is a powerhouse. His stand-up game has seen much improvement, and he seems to be hitting with more power than he has in his entire UFC run. The main problem I see for Diego is his complete lack of a guard/bottom game and if you allow B.J. to get on top even with a great bottom game you're still in big trouble. Diego has to hope he can land his power shots and control B.J. in clinches with knees to the body. He can do it, but it's not as likely as B.J. beating him to the punch.


Melvin Guillard 5:1 - There is not a better striker in the 155 pound division than Melvin Guillard. He's always had explosive capabilities with his striking, but it's his technical prowess that scares me. He's the one guy at 155 who could outbox B.J., and he has powerful and quick kicks to bolster it. The one major knock on Melvin has been his submission and takedown defense, but he's shown a new prowess for it seen recently in his bout with Gleison Tibau. If the fight stays standing, unless B.J. can knock Melvin out I can't see him winning. The likelihood however is that B.J. will put him to the ground and beat him there.

That's all for this week folks. Agree? Disagree? Let us know and leave some comments.