Blood On The Mat 08.27.09: Questions For UFC 102

Posted by  on 08.27.2009

It’s almost time for UFC 102 and there’s plenty of questions awaiting answers. 411’s Adam Tool looks up and down the card for some of the things to watch out for this Saturday. Can Couture or Nogueira remain relevant at heavyweight? How much goodwill does Leben have left? Is Maia’s BJJ enough to beat Marquardt? All this and more in this week’s Blood On The Mat!

Welcome back to Blood On The Mat. My name is Adam Tool and I hope you all enjoyed last week's review of Never Surrender. I got some great feedback from you guys and the rest of the 411 MMA staff, so don't be surprised if I do another movie review at some point down the line. For now though, we've got some fights to look forward to this weekend.



On paper, UFC 102 looks like a solid card. It may lack a title fight, but the main event is one of the marquee match-ups fans have waited several years for. The undercard features several bouts that will should be highly competitive, with one fight that will likely determine a future contender for the middleweight belt. Lots of questions wait to be answered Saturday night, so let's run down the card and see what we've got.



Who will remain relevant at heavyweight?

After almost two years of legal posturing and interim titles, things are back in order with the UFC Heavyweight Championship. The mini-tournament left both of this weekend's main event fighters on their respective asses, so now they must win if they want get within range of sniffing the gold again. Couture has already stated that he'd like another crack at Brock Lesnar (umm, why?) and Nogueira…well actually Nogueira seems to be hinting at retirement sooner than later.

It's odd to think that Couture is still looking to remain competitive while Nogueira seems to be heading towards the end of his career. After all, "The Natural" is 13 years older than "Minotauro." Both men have seen their fair share of wars throughout their time in the sport, but it's clearly taken a bigger toll on Nogueira. He looked sluggish and out of place against Mir, and we can only chalk so much of that up to the staph infection he was reportedly fighting. It's especially concerning heading into this Saturday, as Couture was at least able to remain competitive in his bout with Lesnar.


The other guys at Xtreme Couture thought Randy‘s new choice of a sparring partner was a bit odd

No matter who wins at UFC 106, the heavyweight champion is still going to be one of the biggest and strongest guys in the division. Much as I hate to count Couture out, I don't think he's got much of a chance against Lesnar or Shane Carwin. I'd rather see him drop down to light heavyweight so we can get a few fresh marquee match-ups there. Couture vs. Evans, Couture vs. Jackson, and Couture vs. Franklin are all appealing, and should he win one or two fights he could even get his crack at Machida.

On the other hand there's a big question mark hanging over Nogueira's head. He was always known for an inhuman ability to absorb punishment, but the pummeling he received from Mir has people wondering if those days are over. Is it possible that his chin has been cracked and he'll never be the same? It's not only possible, it's also probable. Rumors have circulated that Nogueira has been knocked out several times during training, so there's a chance that one of his greatest attributes has been taken away.


Wait, which one am I again?

It's likely that the winner of this fight will be lined up for a title shot in the near future, but I'm not really sure if that's something I want to see. Couture has a limited amount of time left and I'd rather see him in competitive fights with big names, rather than getting tossed around by a guy that's at least 50 pounds heavier than him. Nogueira is not the same fighter he was eight years ago, so there's really no reason to think that he could dominate the heavyweight ranks as he once did in PRIDE. Especially now that the division is being run by guys that resemble freight trains more than they do human beings.

Should we care about Keith Jardine?

At this point it's hard to get excited about a Keith Jardine fight. The guy has had a UFC career with some amazing highs and some embarrassing lows. He's never really gotten close to contender status but he's still considered one of the elite fighters at light heavyweight.


Look, I‘m telling you for the last time. I am NOT doing the Techno Viking dance

Thing is, there's really no reason to pumped up for a Jardine fight. This is particularly true when you consider the fact that he's only finished two fights in the four years he's been in the octagon. The most exciting fights he's been in have been the ones where he gets KTFO in violent fashion. Besides, how many people do you know that tell you Keith Jardine is their favorite fighter?

I believe we will see an exciting fight on Saturday, because I believe that Thiago Silva will press the action early. By closing the distance and not allowing Jardine to throw his beloved legkicks, Silva can win this fight in impressive fashion. After all, it's not as if Jardine is known for having a rock-hard chin.


He‘s not exactly known for his good looks either

Jardine has yet to lose two fights in a row, but even if that's the case come Sunday I don't think he'll be getting his pink slip anytime soon. He's fortunate enough that right now the UFC is working on locking down any and all light heavyweights to prevent Strikeforce from building up the division where they need people the most. Rest assured that win or lose this Saturday, we will see Keith Jardine again.

Just don't expect me to care.

How much goodwill does Chris Leben have left?

He may not have won the tournament, but I don't think you can argue that Chris Leben was the star of that first "Ultimate Fighter" season. He didn't have the fan-winning performance that Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar put on, nor could he match Diego Sanchez's dominance. He did, however, make the time spent in the house quite entertaining.

Following the show he went on a 5-0 tear through some respectable competition, before he had the unlucky task of welcoming Anderson Silva to the UFC. He would have had a title shot had he won (ha ha…I know) but he's not likely to get anywhere near that belt unless he can put together another win streak to match his first year with the company.


What if Pinocchio said, "my nose will now grow?"

After scoring back-to-back wins over Terry Martin and Alessio Sakara, Leben was scheduled to face Michael Bisping in England. The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 85, but as with nearly every other fight on that card things got messed up in spectacular fashion. Leben played his part when an outstanding warrant kept him from leaving the country. Then he finally did fight Bisping at UFC 89, only to lose in lackluster fashion. Also, there were the steroids he tested positive for.

He's returning from his nine month suspension, but oddly enough he's yet to proclaim his innocence or apologize for his actions. This is characteristic of the old Chris Leben, but the guy we've been hearing about for the year prior had changed his perspective on life and refocused on his training. Doesn't he at least owe an apology to his employers for fucking up on their dime (in the main event no less)?


Don‘t make me break off a chunk of my Jackie Chan shit!

This weekend he'll face a Jake Rosholt, who is easily one of the most highly-decorated wrestlers in the middleweight division. He's still green to MMA though, and if he these two decide to throw leather for awhile it's likely that Leben will be the one to come out of it conscious. However, a boring performance would take away even more of what precious little luster Leben has left (sorry for the alliteration). The UFC has been cutting guys left and right, so any fight you lose could be your last one in the octagon.

Is Demian Maia‘s Brazilian jiu-jitsu enough to beat Nate Marquardt?

In a word, yes.

In several more words, well…

Nate Marquardt is a stud. He's one of the most experienced guys in the UFC's middleweight division, and he's got skills in all areas of the game. He's got his own black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but it's his striking that's providing his current momentum. His wins over Wilson Gouveia and Martin Kampmann were easily the most impressive performances of his UFC career. A glance at his pro record tells us that he's only been submitted twice, with the last one being six years ago.


Yeah, I‘m kind of a big deal

Marquardt will undoubtedly provide the sternest test of Maia's pro career. If he can force Maia to stay on the feet he'll have a wide advantage with the full arsenal of punches and kicks he puts together. Maia trains with Wanderlei Silva, so it's safe to assume that he's been hit pretty hard in training. However he's yet to have a full-fledged striking battle with any of the opponents he's beaten in the UFC.

All that being said, Maia's jiu-jitsu is light years beyond anyone else in the UFC middleweight ranks (save for maybe Rousimar Palhares). He's got the ability to force his opponent to make mistakes, creating openings that other fighters don't get. As we've seen he's got no problem pulling guard, and should Marquardt let his concentration slip for even a moment then Maia will be there to capitalize.


He was also Mr. May in the 2008 Brazilian Dudes On The Beach calendar

This fight is practically guaranteed to end one of two ways. Marquardt knocks him out, or Maia submits him. Were either of the opposites to happen my face would likely be permanently frozen in a state of surprise, and as a result I would be forced to flee from civilization lest children be forever scarred by my visage.

Is this Brandon Vera‘s last chance?

What the hell happened here? Vera came into the UFC with all the hype in the world behind him, and for awhile he lived up to it. He ran through the heavyweight division with four dominant wins in a row (including his 69 second TKO of Frank Mir), and was on the cusp of a title shot. Then he decided to hold-out on his new contract to get himself some better paydays, and as a result his momentum stalled for almost a year. He made his return and lost his first two fights in a row, which finally sent him down to light heavyweight. He's 2-1 since then but has only really been impressive in his last fight against Mike Patt.


You want a half? That‘s fifty.

Simply put, Vera needs to put on a dominant performance against Krzysztof Soszynski (whose name I still can't spell without looking up). The UFC brass has been very patient with Vera, and I'm sure they don't plan to let him go now that their competition with Strikeforce has intensified. They still want guys that can put on a good fight though, as those are the guys that are regularly getting spots on the main cards.

Vera gets a bit of good luck this weekend as his original opponent, Matt Hamill, had to withdraw due to injury. K-Sos has good striking and a solid ground game (including one hell of a kimura) so he's certainly not an easy guy to beat. If we can see the same intensity Vera showed during his initial UFC run then he should have no problems getting the win. If he fights half-assed again then it's likely going to be back to the pre-lims for him. Say hi to Gabriel Gonzaga for me. Speaking of which…

Is Gabriel Gonzaga destined to a life of fighting cans on the pre-lims?

Here's the thing. In his fights against lower-tier opponents, Gonzaga is a beast. He's 5-0 against guys he should beat, and he's finished every opponent. Then you put him in a main or co-main event, and he's 1-3. The head kick of Cro Cop remains a legendary knockout, but his other featured bouts have resulted in three (T)KO losses.


Gonzaga points at the guys he‘s going to beat up for calling him ManBearPig

Gonzaga still gets ranked in most top ten lists, as he's got some devastating striking and world-class jiu-jitsu. If he can perform at a consistent level against better opponents he could be right there in the title picture. As it is though he's once again fighting a guy making his UFC debut, and he'll probably be scoring another first round victory. Another win after this and he'll probably be brought up again for another chance at the big-time. What happens if he loses then?

As I mentioned a few times already, Gonzaga is one of those guys that has good job security thanks to the new competition from Strikeforce. However he's probably not going to be making six figures per fight if he's being regularly placed on the pre-lims. He needs to be a top-level fighter to keep making the top-level money, and at the moment he's not getting it done. I enjoy watching Gonzaga fight so I hope he can turn things around sooner than later.

Which debuting heavyweight has the best chance for success?

The UFC is obviously working hard to rebuild their heavyweight ranks, and not just with the next season of "The Ultimate Fighter." This Saturday's card features three heavyweight bouts on the preliminary portion, with each fight featuring someone making their UFC debut.


Sorry for bringing up painful memories of the YAMMA

Chris Tuchscherer has a pretty good amateur wrestling background, but he's got the worst draw of the three as he'll be going up against the aforementioned Gonzaga. He won't have much to offer against "Napao" in the stand-up game, and should he try to take Gonzaga down he'll be dealing with a black belt jiu-jitsu artist. Sorry Tuch, but this will not be your night.

Todd Duffee has a fair amount of hype riding behind him, and he's got to be something special if he's being called up to the UFC for just his fifth pro fight. He'll be facing Tim Hague, who already played spoiler once in his UFC debut against Pat Barry. Hague was able to expose Barry's inexperience on the ground, and he's certainly got a chance to do the same again here. However Hague wasn't exactly dominating Barry and Duffee seems to have the goods, so I'm thinking it will be his night to shine.


I wouldn‘t fuck with him, but that‘s me

However, the guy we should be paying the most attention to is Mike Russow. His lone loss came in PRIDE against Sergei Kharitonov, and there's no shame in losing to that guy. Russow has finished his last four fights via submission, with eight tapout wins over the course of his career. He's got a good match-up stylistically against the mediocre Justin McCully, especially considering that each of McCully's four losses have come by submission.


What do I gotta do today to get you to go home with some of these finely crafted shirts?

Russow should win his UFC debut easily, and as we've seen lately the company is not hesitating to put their up-and-coming heavyweights in with tough competition. Look for Russow to face either Cheick Kongo or Heath Herring (or both) sometime in the next twelve months. As long as he keeps winning I see no reason why Russow couldn't be a contender within the next few years.

Or he could lose on Saturday and I'll look like a fool. It happens.

Feedback is welcome at the e-mail address below, or feel free to use the comment box provided. If you want my instant reactions to the fights on Saturday, you can always follow me on Twitter.