Tapping Out With TBerg. 08.28.09: Episode XLV: Heavy Dilemma

Posted by Todd Bergman on 08.28.2009

411’s Todd Bergman returns this week with a special look at the UFC Heavyweight Division. Bergman breaks down the division and lets you know why the UFC is making a mistake by placing Carwin in the Octagon with Lesnar in this edition of Tapping out with TBerg.

This weekend's UFC 102 card features a healthy selection of fights for those fans who love the Heavyweight encounters. Four fights on the card are those of the Heavyweight variety and all of them will have an affect on the future of the division. The first, and most important, would be the main event showdown between Big Nog and Randy Couture. Both have legendary status when it comes to MMA folklore and both are arguably one victory away from being back in the title picture. This fight will mark only the third time in his UFC career that a Randy Couture fight won't be for a title. I'm the farthest from a statistic guy, but that's really incredible when you think about it. Some guys are truly lucky to get one title shot, let alone 16 total title fights. Randy always has to battle the debate over his age even though, in my eyes, he actually looks younger than his opponent, Nogueira even though Big Nog is really 13 years younger. Nog's body has taken a great amount of damage over the years and the questions about his stability were never more prevalent than after his last fight against Frank Mir. Was it injury or was it too many Rocky-esque performances taking a toll on his body? As far as my prediction goes, it's not hard to find as you can locate my hypothesized outcome in the UFC 102 Roundtable located here in the MMA Zone. 411's Samer Kadi spent the last two weeks breaking down the Couture/Nogueira match up as well in his two part series of Battle of the Icons, which can be viewed here and here.


An Old School Look at UFC 102

So with that stuff out of the way, let's get into the real reason that this column is being put together. When the UFC announced that Shane Carwin would be the next challenger to Brock Lesnar's title, I wasn't excited. In fact, I was mortified for Carwin's career. I know that anything can happen in a fight but I don't think that Carwin possess any tools to stop the momentum of Lesnar. Carwin was taken down and hurt badly by strikes from Gabe Gonzaga before ultimately getting up and destroying the weak-chinned Brazilian fighter. It's not the fact that I think Shane doesn't deserve a shot at the title as much as it just seems that this fight is rushed. In fact, a lot of the upcoming match ups seem very rushed to me. Since the UFC has gone to having one or two or even possibly three shows a month, the time for building a fighter up has gone away. Keep in mind, I'm not the type of guy who wants to see a fighter handled with kid gloves, but the future of this division could be destroyed by these questionable match ups. The debate of: "If Carwin doesn't get the shot, who does" is valid, but the original idea of Carwin vs. Velasquez for the number one contender-ship was brilliant. I thought that Shane would be able to dominate that match up and ultimately become the number one contender. Maybe the UFC thought the same and just eliminated that fight because they didn't want to see Cain get destroyed. I'm not sure but, I can tell you that a loss here for Carwin could be very devastating to his career. There are positives, however. For example, if Shane is able to have a great showing in this fight then his stock could go up even in defeat. Obviously, Shane could win the fight and become the modern day Buster Douglas, even though that seems highly unlikely. It's a very slippery slope that the UFC plays on when each fight could be the very last for any fighter. I would've liked to have seen the UFC build more towards the Lesnar/Carwin fight in the summer of 2010, but the potential media surge surrounding Lesnar has forced the UFC to alienate its logic for possible cash incentives. For those of you who think that I'm way off base with this claim, look no farther than the UFC Middleweight division and how anyone who could basically win two fights in a row was thrown to Anderson Silva. Enough said.

The Contenders
Way back in Episode 23 of this beloved article, I took a look at the UFC Heavyweight division and proclaimed some contenders and others pretenders. If you take a look at some of those picks, I was spot on and way off base (seriously, Pat Barry, get a ground game!) The same applies here as I have a look at the guys who I think are sitting in the title picture after UFC 102.

1.) Shane Carwin- Big surpise right? Carwin was named the number contender for Lesnar's title. Shane will get the chance to challenge the "Great White Wrecking Machine" Lesnar at UFC 106 in Las Vegas. Above, I broke down the whole situation and how I think that Carwin needs one more big-hyped fight before getting thrown to the wolves. However, I don't make those decisions so Shane better come ready.

2.) Randy Couture- In Episode 23, I had Couture listed in the pretenders section. Not much has changed, but Randy's got a great opportunity this weekend at UFC 102 and he should be able to avoid the submissions and earn himself a victory. I would like to see Randy face the winner of Mir/Kongo in his next fight before challenging for the title again. There's also a great possibility that Randy could move back down to the 205-pound division and become a punching bag for Anderson Silva. I really don't think that would be Randy's best career move, as he was fairly competitive against Lesnar in that fight and he could be the best chance of anyone beating the former WWE star.

3.) Junior dos Santos- This shouldn't be a shock to anyone who has read my articles before. I'm a huge supporter of dos Santos especially after telling my wife at the UFC 90 weigh ins that he was going to shock the world. One huge ear-wiggling punch later and dos Santos had arrived. His biggest challenge to date comes against former PRIDE Open Weight GP Champion Mirko CroCop at UFC 103 in September. I've said it numerous times and I will say it again, Junior dos Santos will stop CroCop in the 1st round of this fight. I just don't think that Mirko has anything left to stop the seemingly indestructible Santos. From there, I would love to see Junior take on a fighter like Cain Velasquez or Frank Mir. Junior is more than likely two or three wins away from challenging for the title.

4.) Ben Rothwell- What a tremendous hire for the UFC. Granted, Rothwell has had his run-ins with the MMA internet community in the past; nevertheless, Rothwell has a tremendous opportunity at UFC 104 when he takes the place of Shane Carwin when he challenges Cain Velasquez. I really like Ben's chances as his wrestling, and his striking should be superior to Cain's. With that said, I don't think that this fight will even hit the ground as Ben should dictate where it goes and punish the recently-exposed chin of Velasquez. While still a new commodity within the UFC, Ben would likely have to win a handful of fights before being placed in a title match.

5.) Todd Duffee- Are you still scratching your head about this one? Well, let me assure you that while you might not know who he is, you soon will. The American Top Team product debuts inside the Octagon this weekend at UFC 102 against Tim Hague. Duffee is an outstanding wrestler whose ground and pound is becoming something of a legend. Hague was getting destroyed in the Pat Barry fight before latching onto a pretty lucky choke. He won't have that luxury here as Duffee pushes the 265 weight limit and is an unstoppable wrestler. Duffee's situation is the same as Rothwell's as he's still a new guy and will have to work his way up, but match ups with Gabe Gonzaga, Cheick Kongo, Heath Herring, and possibly Frank Mir, could put Duffee right into the title picture.

The Pretenders
So you had a look at who I believe will be the future contenders for Lesnar's title. Now let's have a look at those guys who will be on the outside looking in.

1.) Gabe Gonzaga- It's not because I think that Gabe will lose this weekend at UFC 102 that I'm placing him here. It's because Gabe is way too inconsistent to be challenging for the title again. When the CroCop knock out happened, it floored everyone but Randy Couture. Now, that KO doesn't look as great when it comes to his standing within the UFC. A healthy amount of people are picking Brock's training partner, Chris Tuchscherer, to upset Gabe this weekend, and if I were doing another upset watch article, then I would consider putting Chris as my number one option. However, the same amount of people were predicting Gabe to lose to Randy Couture's training partner, Josh Hendricks, back at UFC 91 for almost the same reasons. I really enjoy watching Gabe fight, but it's going to be a long time before people start thinking Gabe Gonzaga can get back into the UFC Heavyweight title picture.

2.) Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueria- A loss this weekend at UFC 102 won't kill Nog's chances at another title shot. As crazy as it sounds, the loss to Frank Mir did that. For everything magical that he has done in his career, the ass kicking that Frank Mir laid on Nog did more damage than any loss he could ever incur. Mir was never known for his great boxing but yet he pummeled the once-mythical creature to the ground and finished him. Some will say that it was an injury and, while that might be a valid excuse, that UFC card was loaded and Nogueria should've pulled out if the injury was that bad. I don't think that Nog will beat Couture this weekend as Randy is just a dangerous-style match up for Nog. Randy always has a solid game plan and won't play into the "knock me down and chase me" style that Nog has used in the UFC. Sorry PRIDE fans.

3.) Cheick Kongo- I couldn't help myself here. Back in Episode 23, I talked about how Kongo's bonehead strategies and lack of takedown defense would cost him dearly, and it did. Cheick dominated Cain Velasquez on the feet but his lack of takedown defense, or as I like to call it "the dump and hump" cost him. Cheick is in the same boat as Gabe Gonzaga, other than the fact that Gabe has at least one quality win on his record. I would love to see a Loser Leaves UFC fight between Kongo and Gonzaga. Gabe wins that fight, by the way. Everybody do the Kongo.

4.) Cain Velasquez- I don't expect Cain to beat Ben Rothwell in their upcoming fight. That is why Cain lands on this list. I think that once Cain gets more experience inside the Octagon, he could eventually earn a title shot. After all, Justin Eilers earned one at a certain point in UFC history. Cain really needs to work stand up and, most importantly, his head movement. Cheick Kongo nearly decapitated Cain in their struggle in Germany. Out of anyone on this list, I really feel bad for putting Cain here, but a loss to Rothwell is really going to hurt those chances.

5.) Frank Mir- This is another questionable decision here because I see Frank beating Cheick Kongo in their upcoming fight, but I don't think that Mir will get back into the title scene for awhile. I don't think that Mir can beat anyone that I listed in my contenders list and that does include Todd Duffee. Frank had a nice resurgence of his career but some of those wins can be debated as Lesnar being a rookie and Nog being injured, even though I disputed that one above. However, Frank beat whoever was in front of him and did his job. That stopped when Lesnar brought the pain and did considerable damage to Mir's confidence. A Mir/Rothwell or dos Santos fight would be extremely intriguing, but I ultimately see Frank getting dominated and moving back to fighting the Cheick Kongos of the UFC's Heavyweight division.

So there are the contenders and pretenders of the UFC Heavyweight division. Who do you guys think best fit into those categories? Let me know below.



Last week, a great amount of you showed your love for my article. I greatly appreciate the support and hope that this week you are all inspired to do the same. Let's have a look at what some of you had to say.

Brad states: Couldn't agree more, Forrest was a disgrace in defeat and yet no one says anything. Man it felt good seeing him get beat like that....Mousasi is a great man, if I recall we've been saying that for a long time! Do you seen him going to the UFC in the (near) future?

While Mousasi is a rare breed, I don't see him fighting in the UFC anytime in the near future. Gegard appears to have a few too many commitments when it comes to his fighting for him to give them up. I would love to see Gegard fight Machida and then move to Heavyweight like he wants to, but Mousasi's ties to Red Devil will also likely block this move.

Guest#8809 is pretty logical: I don't think the UFC is going to cut any big names right now. This means guys like Randy Couture, Wanderlei Silva, Tito, etc -- they can lose fight after fight, there is no way the UFC is going to make such a poor business decision as to basically -give- a popular fighter to Strikeforce. All that nonsense about fighters in the EA game being 'banned' will be forgiven and forgotten with any big talents they may gun after in the future, especially Mousasi if he continues his tear in Strikeforce.

I feel somewhat bad about Leites being cut, but I understand why it was done. The UFC made an example of him, plain and simple: they were not going to fire Anderson, despite the fact he had his share of the blame in that match as well because he's a dominant champion. The very name of Thales Leites is going to be associated with that dreadful performance, and that's a shame considering he's not a bad fighter. By every account I've seen, besides the UFC judges on that night, said he deserved to beat Sakara. Maybe he can renew his career in Strikeforce.

Gonzaga is possible for a cut, but I don't know. The UFC HW division is still very thin and we don't know how many prospects TUF is going to turn out this year. Expect HW guys to get more lenience than others.

I'm not so sure that the UFC Heavyweight division is as thin as you believe. They have already signed a good amount of quality fighters like a Ben Rothwell or a Mike Russow and then you have to figure in that some of the guys from the upcoming TUF season will also get contracts. It's most certainly a work in progress, but if I were a UFC Heavyweight, I wouldn't believe that my job is secure unless I'm consistently winning fights.

Matt loves him some Randy Couture: Bergman-Look at the names Couture has fought.That is why he has 9 losses.Jeez!I thought you guys were supposed to know what you are talking about.

Oh, the "insult the columnist" strikes again. Yes, Couture has fought a lot of big names inside the UFC. He's a Hall of Famer and a living legend, but my thought was that anything could happen. Randy doesn't have the best history with the UFC brass and it's hard to predict what Dana could do at any given time. Giving up Couture for a potential Fedor/Couture Strikeforce fight would be a dumb business move, but anything can happen. It might have been a stretch to consider Couture for that but I did state that I didn't think that it would happen. I ask this question: shouldn't readers read the articles in full before commenting?

Opinion is our friend: I don't care what anyone says, I still love seeing Forrest fight, he is still my second favourite fighter, after Lesnar.

It's not that I greatly dislike Forrest Griffin. It's that he is so overly-hyped by most MMA media-types that bothers me the most. It's very similar to Tim Tebow. Tim is a tremendous talent, but all of the man -ove that he receives is completely ridiculous and takes away from many other quality people who participate in their sport. I honestly think that is why a lot of people dislike Griffin and Tebow.

stronelis is pretty angry: this whole no one gains anything from a catchweight bout is getting old. they may not get much credit from hardcore fans for catchweight bouts because we understand the sport at a much higher level. however for the more casual fans all they will see is Belfort vs Franklin. and if vitor wins all the casual fans will think the world of him because he beat a "big name". If vitor loses you have the built in excuse that i guarentee rogan will pound into the casual fan's heads so its basically a win-win for the ufc and vitor (franklin is another matter).

Like it or not the ufc markets to the casual fan with the hardcore fans as an afterthought. Why do you think we hardcore fans are often more excited for a bout that isn't the main event? the main event is geared towards the casual fan. the catchweight bout is easier for franklin and belfort to make and is inconsequential to the casual fans so why not do it.

I really get what you are saying, but here's the thing. The casual fans don't order every UFC card and don't follow the sport. Take for instance, UFC 100. Tons of people who had never watched the sport before were talking about it on their Facebook and Twitter pages. Very few of them actually returned for UFC 101 and even less will return for UFC 102. It's not about being a hardcore fan or not when it comes to catch weight fights. It's not like Couture is taking on Silva or even Hughes vs. Gracie. This is Belfort vs. Franklin and there's nothing at stake in this fight. However, I will follow your reason and hope that all of the casual fans tune into UFC 103 for the tremendous catch weight showdown between Rich Franklin and Vitor Belfort because there is absolutely nothing to gain from here. It seems to me that the casual fans would care more about names like Couture, Lesnar, Ortiz, and Liddell being in the main event instead of two guys that aren't so wel- known within the casual community.

chris.crowing thinks: I can't see Randy being cut, as a loss to Bg Nog can be countered with a drop to LHW - place him against Rashad, Forrest or even Little Nog or Anderson Silva - those fights would draw and a few wins would put him in line for a shot perhaps against Machida. Win, win, win. Fedor-Randy is only interesting inside the UFC.

Fedor vs. Randy is interesting wherever the fight takes place. Hell, EA Sports is building a video game around that match up. I know a lot of people are hoping for a Couture weight drop because of his ambition to fight Anderson at 205, but I don't think that it's a good fit. Randy would be better off not destroying his body by trying to get to 205 for each fight. I know that Randy is one of the smaller Heavyweights, but regardless of the cut, it's still going to take an effect on his 46-year-old body. I'm probably in the minority but I just don't want Randy to drop to 205 because he got beat a few times in the 205 plus division.

Thanks for checking out this week's article. Enjoy UFC 102 this weekend and make sure to list who you guys think are the contenders and pretenders in the UFC's Heavyweight division. If you like what you are seeing here on 411mania.com make sure to add this wonderful site to your bookmarks for easier internet accessibility. Remember to support your local MMA and keep your tapping hand strong.