The Greatest MMA News Column 09.01.09: UFC 102 Fallout
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 09.01.2009
411's Dan Plunkett is back with a discussion of UFC 102's main event, where both fighters go from here, his endorsement for the middleweight title shot, Fedor vs. Rogers, Lesnar vs. Carwin, the UFC's late year big show run, PPV buys, fights that could have been five rounds, and much more!
Minotauro Beats Couture in a Classic
Going into this fight, it was a tale of two losses.
Randy Couture had gone into the octagon on the night of November 15, 2008, with the world title strapped loosely around his waste in anticipation of a tough fight against a monstrous challenger with skills that greatly complement his size. The betting lines had the man known to many as "Captain America" a slight underdog in the bout, yet somehow that made him the favorite.
The well oiled middle-aged man showed no signs of being effected by a 15 month layoff. He didn't just hang with his younger, stronger, faster opponent, he was competitive with him. Punch for punch. One punch however, he could not answer. And that was that.
Nobody could fault Randy Couture for his loss. There wasn't any talk that "he's too weak" or "his chin is shot." You heard more of: "if he got it into the later rounds, he would have won that fight." The general consensus on November 16 was that Couture was most certainly not done in fighting and he put on a good performance.
42 days after "The Natural" was dethroned, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira would defend his interim heavyweight championship. Known as "Minotauro," Nogueira gained his reputation after taking some of the worst beatings in the history of the sport, only to take victory from the hands of defeat. It's not that he just gets beat up and then comes back to win; Minotauro is one of the most skilled heavyweights to ever live. His ground skills are spectacular and he has very solid boxing. Going into his fight against Frank Mir, Nogueira was a huge favorite to win; the fight was merely a formality.
Minotauro, the usually durable, middle-aged looking man showed every sign of being worn out from years of punishment. His punches were slow, his defense and movement were poor, and his mythical iron chin gave out on him. He was completely destroyed by a seemingly rejuvenated Frank Mir.
Why start off the column with 300 words about stuff everyone knows? Because it shows just how much your perception of a fighter can change after just one fight.
I thought Minotauro was going to get destroyed. I bought the idea that he would get knocked around in the stand-up game and taken down and controlled at will. I was completely wrong.
Nogueira showed on Saturday that he still had something left. He's not as good as he was used to be, but he's still a damn good fighter. Is he a fighter that can challenge Brock Lesnar? I think so.
I think Brock will be much more cautious to go to the ground with Minotauro than he was against Frank Mir last time around. I expect it to be a stand-up fight until Brock lands in half-guard or better after a takedown. In the case of a stand-up fight, Minotauro has the better hands, but it only takes one punch from Brock, who will have a four inch reach advantage.
I have to stop myself before I get too immersed in that bout, since Lesnar still has a date with Shane Carwin on the horizon.
Randy Couture didn't look terrible in the fight, but he didn't look as good as he did in the Lesnar fight. He was swept a couple times, dropped a couple times, mounted a couple times, and nearly submitted. But every time he was in trouble, he found a way to get out of it.
His title prospects in the heavyweight division have dimmed considerably with the loss; I don't ever see him getting that title back. Randy said after the bout he wants "interesting fights," but he doesn't want to commit to a division right now. All of those "interesting fights" he so desperately craves are at light heavyweight, which is where I think we'll see him fight next. Aside from a possible fight with Mirko Cro Cop, there aren't many matches in the heavyweight division that I'd like to see Randy in for his next fight. Plus, it would only take him one win to get a title shot at 205. That is, if he doesn't get it right away.
Who Should Get the Next Middleweight Title Shot?
The most interesting fight going into UFC 102 ended up as the most disappointing fight at UFC 102. The first punch Nate Marquardt landed was enough to knockout Demian Maia. Luckily for Maia, he could get a rematch at the ADCC's (which are stacked this year) in September. Back to MMA. Marquardt now puts himself up with Dan Henderson in title contention, but nobody knows who to give the title shot to. So let's make the case for both fighters based off of what they've done in and since the Silva fight and some fight selling points:
Nate Marquardt:
Finished with strikes in the first round against Anderson.
4-1 record since that fight.
Loss was controversial.
Finished opponents in all 4 wins.
21 second knockout of Demian Maia
Member of Greg Jackson's camp.
Former King of Pancrase.
Dan Henderson:
Won the first round against Anderson before being submitted in the second.
3-0 record since that fight.
Won a decision over former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin.
Coming off of a knockout victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 100, an event which was bought by 1.72 million people.
Never been knocked out.
Coach on season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter.
Marquardt makes this a very difficult decision coming off of a 21 second victory. Ultimately, you put on fights people want to see, and people want to see and will pay to see Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson. The middleweight division has always been void of any big drawing fights, and that fight can hopefully change that. I endorse Silva vs. Hendo 2 for the middleweight title.
GIVE THIS MAN A TITLE SHOT!
Dana's video blogs are no more, which I'm not happy about at all. But Randy Couture was vlogging for UFC 102, so here are his:
Fedor's First Strikeforce Opponent Will Be Brett Rogers
After weeks of speculation, Strikeforce has announced that 10-0 Brett Rogers will take on the greatest fighter to ever live, Fedor Emelianenko. I do not like this fight. Firstly, I can understand if they wanted to give Fedor a fight to get warmed up in the cage and to get ready for Alistair Overeem, but Strikeforce doesn't want to do that fight until down the road. Past experience has shown that wanting to slowly build a fight in MMA isn't always successful, because there are so many things that can happen to either fighter.
Secondly, I don't like how Strikeforce is handling Brett Rogers here. Scott Coker has publicly stated that Fedor/Overeem is a fight they want to build to, so in building to that they're throwing one of their best young talents to the wolves. They got away with it last time due to Andrei Arlovski's inability to take a punch, but now they throw him in against Fedor to lose.
Lastly, Fedor could lose this fight. Brett Rogers is a guy with a ton of power in his hands, and Fedor keeps his hands relatively low. All it takes is one shot. MMA fighters have a good ability to retain their drawing power despite losing, but can Fedor? The intriguing thing about Fedor, why people are interested in him, is because he's never really lost, among other reasons. If that long standing dominance came to an end against a seemingly one dimensional fighter in Rogers, what would happen to him? Everybody gets caught sometimes, but getting caught and losing would kill Fedor's aura of invincibility.
Nonetheless, I expect Fedor to take this fight to the ground if he knows what's good for him. He should win the fight there soon after, probably by armbar or rear naked choke.
UFC 101 Does More Than 800,000 PPV Buys
Not a month goes by that I don't mention pay-per-view buys in my columns. This is because all of the major North American promotions vie to get on and be successful on PPV. The UFC generates a majority of their revenue from PPV, Strikeforce and Bellator are waiting patiently to get into the market, and promotions like Affliction, bodogFight, the WFA, and even PRIDE have failed on PPV.
Everybody talks about how UFC PPV buys exploded after The Ultimate Fighter, but could we be in for another period of growth for UFC PPV buys? UFC 100 set a new high mark with 1.72 million buys, 61% more than their previous best. Nearly a month later, UFC 101 came along featuring a title bout between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian in the main event, and a strong co-main event in Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin.
It was a little over a year ago that a card featuring an anticipated fight between BJ Penn and Sean Sherk, along with Tito Ortiz, generated 475,000 buys. Just a few months later Forrest Griffin took on Quinton Jackson for the light heavyweight title, which pulled in a disappointing 540,000 buys. A year ago, the UFC 101 card would have done in the neighborhood of 600,000 buys. But this isn't August of 2008. On the heels of the record breaking July event, UFC 101 did more than 800,000 buys according to early estimates and may reach the landmark of 1,000,000 buys.
The UFC has reached the million buy mark four times. The first time they weren't able to keep the momentum going, UFC 67's number was 262% less than that of UFC 66. While that number is somewhere in the vicinity of the drop-off from UFC 100 to UFC 101, there's nothing to suggest UFC 67's number was significantly increased by the hype generated by UFC 66, which is not the case with UFC 101.
UFC 91 either barely cracked the million mark or just missed it depending on who you listen to, but the following PPV, UFC 92, accumulated more than a million buys. This set off a great period for the UFC with UFC 93 doing a great amount of buys for an overseas show, UFC 94 underachieved a bit with 800,000, but that is a good number nonetheless. UFC 97 and 98 exceeded expectations coming in at over 600,000 buys each, while UFC 96 was lost in the shuffle of big shows.
With such a fruitful period coming after UFC 91 and 92, UFC 100 came at a perfect time to shift the company into a new gear. UFC 102 and 103 won't feature title fights, and 103 doesn't have much star power on its ironically stacked card. That event's PPV buys will give good indication of how much these events are being helped by UFC 100's hype.
Along with the UFC's bottom line, the big winner in all of this is Anderson Silva. "The Spider" has failed to become a draw on PPV despite being billed as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and being one of the longest reigning champions in history. His victory over Forrest Griffin was awe inspiring, and will no doubt have a positive effect on his future PPV bonuses.
NSAC Approves 5 Round Fights for "Championship Level Athletes"
At the look of it this is great news. Every time the UFC announces an event without a title bout fans are calling for the main event to be a five round fight. But how often does the UFC put on fights in Nevada without a title fight as the main event? Take note that this wouldn't effect events anywhere else but Nevada. Here are some instances in the past 5 years in which they could have used this rule:
The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale- Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida: This was a great fight in which many were calling for 2 extra rounds. But do both fighters qualify as championship level? Taking the phrase literally, Clay Guida has never even been within a win of a title shot, so he couldn't be a championship level fighter. So this fight seemingly wouldn't be accepted by the commission for 5 rounds.
UFC Fight Night 14- Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin: Silva is certainly championship level, see the belt around his waist for proof, but James Irvin? No, not at all. Just like Sanchez/Guida, this fight may not qualify for 5 rounds.
UFC 79- Matt Hughes vs. Georges St. Pierre: I know this was turned into an interim title fight, but that was really only so it could be a five rounder. I think the UFC would have made this a five round, non-title fight as both fighters would fit the "championship level" requirement.
UFC 79- Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva: Can you imagine if this fight was 5 rounds? It would have been sick. With Hughes/St. Pierre now a non-title fight, this fight probably would have been the main event, and rightfully so.
UFC 67- Anderson Silva vs. Travis Lutter: While the fight didn't even need two full rounds, it still would have been nice to retain the 5 round fight despite not being a title fight.
UFC Fight Night 6- Karo Parisyan vs. Diego Sanchez: Karo had been in line for a title shot at UFC 56, but got injured and had to withdraw from the fight. Does that make him a championship level athlete? I guess. Sanchez had been on a roll going into that fight, and was well deserving of a title shot after the win. The real question here is the definition of a championship level athlete.
UFC 58- St. Pierre vs. Penn: This fight certainly featured two championship level athletes, and it would have added hype to the fight. The winner however, would not have changed.
UFC 51- Tito Ortiz vs. Vitor Belfort: This was a very good and close fight featuring two former light heavyweight champions. The fight was the main event of a card featuring two title fights, both of which ended in the first round. I don't think the UFC would have scheduled 3 five round fights on the same night after what happened at UFC 33 though.
Sadly, Dana White and the UFC don't plan on using this rule: …I think that's what's so special about fighting for the title. You fight for the title, and it's a five-round fight; you don't, it's a three-round fight. So if everything could be five rounds, what's the point in having title fights at five rounds? Should we do title fights as seven rounds and regular fights (at) five rounds? It just doesn't make sense to me, even though as a fan myself I'd like to see some fights go five rounds that aren't."
I disagree with Mr. White here. The five rounds aren't entirely what make title fights special. Title fights are special because they are for titles, simply enough. They are used to determine who the best in a specific weight class is, and that is what makes fighting for and winning the title so special.
Five-round non-title fights would be special for the fans, they could make the stupid interim titles less frequent, and they would leave us with left with fewer questions than a three round fight would. Since it doesn't look like they're going to adopt them though, I would like 6 main card fights for events without title fights. Sure, they'll probably show 6-7 fights anyway, but 6 main card fights is a better selling point for them than 5.
Lesnar vs. Carwin to Headline UFC 106 and Kick Off Big Run of Shows from November to February
Despite previously being scheduled to fight Cain Velasquez at UFC 104, Shane Carwin is now the number one contender for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. In an apparent attempt to save one of their future title challengers, the UFC decided to drop the fight and give Carwin the title shot.
Velasquez, who is 4-0 in the UFC, will instead fight the tough former IFL Heavyweight Champion Ben Rothwell.
The title shot will mark only Carwin's fourth appearance in the octagon, which begs the question: Why Carwin over Velasquez? For starters, both are undefeated, with Carwin at 11-0 and Velasquez with six wins and no defeats. However, looking at Carwin's record the amount of time, or lack thereof, that his fights have gone is hard to miss. In his 11 professional fights, nobody has made it out of the first round against the 34-year-old. On top of that, his longest fight clocked in at just two minutes and eleven seconds.
To further strengthen Carwin's case, he is as close to a Lesnar clone as there is in the UFC heavyweight division, and he criticized Lesnar for his post-fight antics at UFC 100. Things could heat up quickly between these two which could only be good news for the buyrate.
Also at UFC 106, Tito Ortiz will make his UFC return when he takes on Mark Coleman. It's no coincidence that the current biggest draw (Lesnar) and the former biggest draw (Oritz) will be on the same card. After a one-and-a-half year absence from fighting and a three year winning drought, the UFC wants fans to become familiar with Ortiz again so he can once again become a big draw for them.
The very next weekend may also bring a UFC show. Dana White has stated that the UFC would be putting on three big events in November: UFC 105 on SPIKE, UFC 106 on PPV, and an as-of-yet named "event X" to be broadcast on neither SPIKE nor PPV. That would lead me to believe that the UFC is very close to reaching a network TV deal, which would be a huge deal. Should that deal happen, BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez will headline "event X" with the lightweight title up for grabs.
November will only be the start of things to come though, as UFC 107 will bring us the soon-to-be much anticipated grudge match between Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Rashad Evans. It's not known as of yet if that fight will be the main event, but regardless that one fight should get enough hype on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter that it can sell the card without much help.
The UFC's annual New Year's Eve weekend card is one of the biggest of the year, but due to holidays and the days they fall on UFC 108 will take place on January 2. This card doesn't have anything set for it, but you can guarantee a good show. Possible main events would include Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson/Nate Marquardt for the middleweight title, or Georges St. Pierre vs. Martin Kampmann/Mike Swick for the welterweight title.
Josh Gross currently has an article up saying that Anderson is not interested in potential middleweight title defenses against Dan Henderson or Nate Marquardt. Silva and his manager Ed Soares have made it known that Anderson wants to fight in the biggest of fights, and even named heavyweight Frank Mir as a possible opponent.
Firstly, should it happen, I'd pick Anderson Silva to beat Frank Mir. Secondly, I'm not so sure a Frank Mir fight is something to go after. Sure, Frank will talk the fight up beautifully and it is an interesting fight. But from Mir's point of view, that's not that fight I want. If he loses to Anderson Silva, a middleweight, that puts him out of title contention for a long time. There's just too much risk for very little reward. If he wins, he defeated a man that weighs considerably less than him that had never fought at heavyweight before. Nevertheless, this fight would make for a great co-main event on any of the December-February cards.
January or February may see "Captain America" return to the Octagon. As I stated previously, Randy has a ton of options for his next fight, and I honestly have no idea what he'll do next. We can be sure though that his fight would bring interest to any card it lands on.
November-February may end up being the most fruitful four month time period for the UFC in terms of PPV buys. I would expect 106 to clear the million buy hurdle and depending on the card 108 could very well come close to matching it. UFC 107 should do very well, but I'm not willing to put up a number until I see the Ultimate Fighter season. We can only guess what will headline UFC 109, which would presumably be the Super Bowl weekend show, so it wouldn't make sense to predict how well that will do at the moment.
That's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the column and didn't miss it too much last week. Thanks for reading!
What Fedor drawing power? Except for the most hardcore of fans, he has no drawing power. I agree with you with everything else because if he happens to lose, he is screwed and so is Strikeforce. How do you build him up to a new audience then?
Posted By: Jeremy (Guest) on September 01, 2009 at 01:41 AM
Great column Dan.
Just like to point out that in a interview with Sherdog, Mir already expressed his desire to fight Silva, and even mentioned how he'd love to experience what it's like to "stand up with him".
Posted By: Samer Kadi (Registered) on September 01, 2009 at 08:08 AM
What little drawing power Fedor has will be significantly reduced if he somehow loses to Rogers. Win or lose he's never going to become a household name fighting in Strikeforce.
Posted By: Wyku (Guest) on September 01, 2009 at 02:59 PM
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