The Blueprint: 9.04.09: Shane Carwin - Rocky Mountain Low

Posted by Patrick Mullin on 09.04.2009

How do you stop the fastest rising heavyweight in the UFC? You read my column! Don't you guys know this by now?

The Blueprint: 9.3.09: Rocky Mountain Low

Shane Carwin's rise in the heavyweight division has left a trail of destruction tough to match. How can arguably the most destructive heavyweight in the UFC be stopped? Only one way to find out.

Welcome back my loyal readers. We're here yet again, but we're doing things a little differently this time. Instead of our standard column where we break down an established champion, we're taking a look at an up and coming contender and what can possibly be done to stop them. However before we get to our principle this week, we'll take a look at some of the plethora of comments we received last week.

From Jeremy (Guest): "Clay Guida should have been on that list as high as number 1. is Cardio and his highly aggressive style would be a huge factor against BJ . If he could develop even the slightest of KO power or consistent threat of submission, he will be champ one day. My money right now is on the Nightmare."

Clay Guida shouldn't be on that list because he doesn't have the slightest of KO power or a consistent threat of submission. Number one on our list last week was cardio and it's a very good tool, but its only one of the tools that would be needed against B.J. Clay also is in trouble standing up against anyone with the slightest ability of good stand up technique. Diego Sanchez has KO power at 155 pounds, but his technique is still flawed and he almost put Clay out within the first two minutes of the fight. Diego also has a very poor bottom game yet somehow he was able to outwork Clay from the guard, busting him up with elbow strikes to take a deserved decision victory.

Against B.J. the Nightmare has the potential to win, but he still has some adjustments to make. If he tries to slug it out with Penn he won't be in there with an unschooled brawler like Guida. He'll be in there with a fantastic counter puncher who can take advantage of his tendency to get uppercut happy. B.J. also has a dominant ground game where as Diego is only great when on top. Still a stretch for me to consider Diego a favorite against B.J. Penn in their upcoming bout.

From paul (Guest): " ‘Work behind a jab and some leg kicks.' Easier said than done, BJ has the best jab at 155."

Paul it comes to my attention you may not be familiar with principles of boxing/kickboxing or any striking art. When someone is jabbing you the best thing you can do is answer them with a jab. When you jab with your opposition you don't allow them to strike first and gauge their range and score points. You can also nullify their jab if you're able to assert yours by confusing them when you jab with them. This is where a guy like a Melvin Guillard would shine when fighting Penn, because Melvin has the superior hand speed and I believe he also has a reach advantage thus taking away the jab from Penn would be a pivotal move.

From Dustin (Guest): "I think Grey would def have advantage wrestling but I see B.J. doin what he did to GSP the first round in the first fight all day til Grey quits or gets tapped. Diego is the scariest cause he can grapple and he has power in his punchs however Penns top game and jab would def give him problems unless Diego can push him to where he is tired but dont see him winning unless he knocks him out. Melvin reminds me of Manoef from Dream sick stand up you stand you drop with both men however if he proves against diaz he can stop takedowns then we can talk more about him...he has alot to prove"

I really like the Manhoef comparison to Melvin that you made Dustin. The thing is I have seen improvement from Melvin in terms of takedown and submission defense. His fight against a great wrestler in Gleison Tibau proved that he's stepping up his game to me. He landed strikes at will which was no surprise, but also stopped numerous takedowns, when takedown Tibau inflicted no damage on him, and he even was able to take Tibau down with a beautiful judo throw. Melvin recently received his blue belt in BJJ from Ricco Rodriguez after completing his prison stint, and is a threat to anyone at 155 pounds. His upcoming fight with Nate Diaz will be a really good gauge of where he stands amongst the rest at 155 pounds.

From AdamS (Guest): "I think there are two things you didn't mention that actually improve Gray Maynard's odds. Ye,s yes, I'm a Maynard mark and I know it. Still...

The first is that no one knows BJ better in the division than Maynard. He was BJ's training partner for quite a while before he went on TUF (which in part helps explain BJ picking him and predicting his win). A whole lot fo BJ's skill comes down to timing, and no one has a better understanding of it than Gray.

Second, Maynard fights out of Xtreme Couture. Arguably the best gameplanners in the game. Unlike Florian, Gray would come into this fight with an excellant gameplan that would push Penn and accentutate his weaknessess."

Well Adam I didn't mention how well Gray knows B.J. simply because that tends to go both ways, and normally it's the veteran who would have a better understanding of it, of course in this instance the veteran would be B.J. Penn. As much as Gray would be able to anticipate B.J., the tables could turn just as easily if not more so the other way. I didn't mention Maynard's current camp of Xtreme Couture so you deserve credit for doing that. Xtreme Couture is well known as being a great game plan camp, so there's always the potential the guys there could give Gray a potential ace up his sleeve. I still don't think its enough to tilt the favor towards Gray anymore than I did initially though, just because I think B.J. is simply that good.

From Ta2 (Guest): "I think its sad that a lot of self claimed MMA fans watch only UFC and think that thats the only org that counts.

Its wrong for two reasons:
1.) They are stupid when arguing about MMA. Just look at the "Fedor never played in the big league" comments. If you watch other orgs too,you will have a clue about the MMA outside of UFC,and dont say stupid things like this.

2.) They are doing wrong for themselves. I mean I could care less if somebody knows only 20-30 fighters and say that they know it all. But they wont see extremely exciting guys like Alvarez,Diaz,Torres,Aldo,etc. Bad for them.

BTW the article is great as usual,I rarely post here,but the previous ones with Bowles and Brown were great as well."

Well thanks a lot for the positive feedback on my articles on Bowles and Brown. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks that most self-proclaimed MMA fans are in reality only UFC fans. They can tell you all about TUF alumni, but you bring up guys who are standouts in either Strikeforce, DREAM, Bellator, even WEC which is a Zuffa owned entity and promoted on UFC shows, and they can't tell you the first thing about them. I'll be the first to admit that I don't feel that I follow Bellator or Sengoku enough to call myself an authority, but I try to catch what I can of each organization. Most guys think UFC is the be all-end all and that's just unfortunate. I thought DREAM 9 and 10 were the best cards of the year and Strikeforce has been building a lot of momentum.

I must digress however and move on to what we came here for. Figuring out how to beat the "Colorado Colossus," Shane Carwin. The native of Greeley is 11-0 finishing every one of his opponents. He's currently on a collision course with UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar and he may be just the man to end Brock's reign at the top of the UFC.



1) Strike Defense - As is the norm here in The Blueprint, we're starting off with the most glaring weakness our subject has. No one doubts Shane's toughness or ability to take a punch, but the fact is he just takes too many of them for his own good. He has a faith in his ability to take punishment that's encouraging to see in any fighter but at the same time you realize against the wrong guy its going to cost him the fight. The benefit Shane has here is that there's a distinct lack of great strikers in the heavyweight division, as its mostly dominated by grappling specialists.

Shane despite his wrestling pedigree likes to keep the fight standing. He enjoys throwing shots and exchanging with guys and boxing has quickly become his favorite component of mixed martial arts. Hopefully that means he's refining his strike defense, but that's far from a guarantee. Its also dangerous as Carwin has only picked up the striking game since his MMA career began just four years ago, and he'll be matched with guys who are primarily strikers with backgrounds in boxing, kickboxing, and various striking disciplines. Gabriel Gonzaga is not recognized as a striker, but due to Shane's lack of head movement or hand coverage, he blasted him with three consecutive right crosses that had him out on his feet.

There may be a large amount of grapplers at the top of the heavyweight division, but there are some quality strikers. Carwin has made his love of standing up known and if he tries that with a certain crop of guys that may spell doom. The UFC recently brought in one of the better strikers in all of MMA, Paul Buentello. Buentello's always been beaten by a lack of a ground game, but when faced with an opponent willing to trade with him he's had a lot of success. His jab is one of the best in the business and sets up amazing power shots, just ask Kirill Sidelnikov if you don't believe us. Brett Rogers has hands with bones made of brass and Alistair Overeem is a K-1 level kick boxer who will have to stop cycling and fight again in the U.S. at some point. Perhaps the best striker in the heavyweight division is the oft forgotten Andrei Arlovski, who's likely just one quality win away from coming back to the UFC.



2) Questionable Gas Tank - Wrestlers by nature tend to have very good stamina and conditioning. However MMA training and training for wrestling are very different. In his eleven professional fights Carwin has yet to get out of the first round. The longest fight he's ever had in his career has been two minutes and eleven seconds. What's even scarier is that in his three fights in the octagon, his total match time is two minutes and forty four seconds. That's only 11 seconds more than his first bout. In those eleven victories five of them have come in UNDER A MINUTE!



As impressive as that statistic may be, it also raises a question. Just how good is Shane's gas tank? At age 34 he's relatively fresh compared to his contemporaries in that age group. Not everyone can be Randy Couture and be in immaculate condition at an advanced age though. Perhaps the key to beating Shane is to just weather the early storm and outlast him. Is Shane finishing guys early because he can, or because he has to?

3) Age - As we said Shane is comparatively fresh for most guys 34 years old competing in MMA. However most guys competing at 34 years of age are generally seen as already being past their physical prime. Those reflexes just aren't as fast, the stamina level drops, the ability to take punishment lowers. Its all a part of getting old.

It doesn't take a series of one sided losses for you to see a fighter's age. Quite a few times a guy can take one beating and the phrase "getting old overnight" comes into play. Once you pass the age of 32 anything is physically possible to turn against you. When Mirko Crocop took on Cheick Kongo a lot of people saw Mirko age before them. While nobody expected the wrecking machine of years past, everyone expected Crocop to recover from his loss to Gabe Gonzaga with a victory over Cheick Kongo. What you saw was Mirko look slow, and for the first time he had a guy beating him to the punch and kick throughout the fight.

When Chuck Liddell was supposed to rebound against Keith Jardine after losing his light heavyweight title, he got old in front of our very eyes. The then 37 year old Liddell was forced to look for a big punch to score the KO that never came. He looked lethargic, outclassed, and as we've said he looked old. The trend continued against Rashad Evans, and most noticeably against Shogun Rua. Rua threw the most telegraphed left hook I've ever seen and all Liddell could do was watch it land on his jaw and knock him out.

Youth is a very good tool. There's new young heavyweights popping up all looking to make names for themselves against established veterans. Todd Duffee is 23 years old and undefeated with all of his wins by KO, including the fastest in UFC history. Junior dos Santos is 25 and knocking out whoever the UFC puts in front of him. Cain Velasquez is 27 and hasn't even lost a round yet in his young career. The up and coming heavyweights are hungry and energetic. Is it just a matter of time before the "old" guard of fighters 32 and up like Carwin, Lesnar, Couture, and Nogueira simply can no longer fight Father Time?

4) Bottom Game - Have you seen Shane Carwin in a submission yet? Me neither. Its not that he's defended well against them, its that nobody's even been able to attempt them on him. Against Gabriel Gonzaga the fight only momentarily went to the ground and as soon as they stood Carwin hit him with a right hand that put him to sleep faster than a hand full of Ambien would have.

It would have been interesting to see Shane fight off of his back. Wrestlers by nature tend to panic when put on their back on instinct alone. Shane is from a camp specializing in submissions. However none of the fighters currently with Jackson's Submission Fighting, or even past Jackson fighters like Diego Sanchez, are particularly known for having a good bottom game. Rashad Evans has shown submission defense, but no real semblance of a bottom game so you have to question just how good Shane would be if put in that position.

Would he be able to sweep Randy Couture? Could he pull guard successfully and fend off submission attempts from BJJ wizards like Minotauro Nogueira or Frank Mir? What happens when he's forced to defend against strikes from the top with a monster like Brock Lesnar on top of him? We just haven't seen Shane really fight off of his back to know if he can even do it against a prelim level guy, let alone a top 10 or 15 heavyweight. If there's one aspect of his game to point to where he is potentially in trouble this is where I'd look most, just because we don't know what Shane has to offer from bottom position.


Who Can Beat Him?


Fedor Emelianenko - I'm not even posting odds or elaborating on this, nor should I have to.

Brock Lesnar 2:1 - I think Brock's in trouble come UFC 106. I feel he has a suspect beard and he's facing a guy with murderous punching power. Lesnar's usual size advantage is gone, and Carwin is a great wrestler and former NCAA Division 2 Champion. He's also out of a great submission camp with Greg Jackson, having 5 of his 11 wins by way of submission. I feel a new heavyweight champion is likely come 106.


Andrei Arlovski 3:1 - Its very likely Andrei could outbox Shane or perhaps tire him out and score a late stoppage. However its just as likely, or perhaps more so that Shane Carwin could land a proverbial wrecking ball punch on Andrei's suspect chin and end the fight then and there. You have to favor it as the more likely outcome, but its not out of the question Andrei could get the job done.

Junior dos Santos 3:1 - Junior has been on a tear in the UFC plowing through veteran Fabricio Werdum and kick boxer Stefan Struve. He's the protégé of Minotauro Nogueira and has displayed a well rounded mix of boxing and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in his career. His well rounded skill set seems to be a rough night for anyone. I expect we'll really be able to gauge him more accurately following his upcoming bout with Mirko Crocop.

Others Receiving Consideration: Minotauro Nogueira, Randy Couture, Brett Rogers, Frank Mir.

That's all for this week. Agree? Disagree? Let us know how you feel by leaving some comments.