The Rear Naked Column 09.09.09: Determining the Contenders (Part 1)

Posted by Samer Kadi on 09.09.2009

With Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre on the shelf with injuries, the UFC needs to establish number 1 contenders in both the middleweight and welterweight divisions. Dan Henderson’s reluctance to fight Marquardt and Mike Swick’s injury further added to the mess. 411’s Samer Kadi looks at the potential match ups to determine the contenders for the Spider and GSP’s thrones in this week’s edition of “The Rear Naked Column”.

Sitting on top of each UFC division is the absolute cream of the crop in Mixed Martial Arts. From Brock Lesnar to BJ Penn, all five champions will be walking into their next fights as firm favorites, and deservedly so. This topic has been covered in my "Invincible Champions" column where I discussed the status of every current UFC champion as well as the list of potential threats to his throne.

One of the benefits of having a dominant champion on top of a division is the ever lasting quest of finding the guy to stop him. Mike Brown's knockout of Urijah Faber sent shockwaves through the MMA world. A new star was born as Brian Bowles flattened out Miguel Torres to claim the WEC bantamweight title last month.

With the UFC talent pool being the deepest it's ever been in all five weight classes, determining the number one contender can be a headache for Dana White and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva. From a business point of view, number one contender fights aren't always rewarding, as they would wipe out a contender just as they would solidify another, which is why the UFC is usually reluctant to put together these sorts of bouts. Dana and company like to keep their options, and they've done an exceptional job using that exact approach. But every now and then, the UFC would put together a fight to determine the next title contender. More often than not, that sort of match making is very well received by the fans, notably among hardcores, as cries of undeserved title shots still fill up message boards on daily basis. Match makers have their work cut out for them, and any decision will be met by some sort of criticism somewhere. And while I'm generally fine with the title fights put together by the UFC, I'm a firm believer in eliminator fights. They eliminate (if you excuse the pun) any sort of doubts regarding the credibility of the challenger, and help build some momentum around him going into the title fight. Not to mention it would have saved us the embarrassment that was Silva Vs Leites.

With Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva – the two most dominant champions in the UFC – all but cleaning out their respective divisions, the welterweight and middleweight title scenes were desperately in need of contenders. While St. Pierre was putting on a one sided beating on Thiago Alves at UFC 100, Joe Silva informed commentator Joe Rogan that the winner of the upcoming Mike Swick-Martin Kampann bout would receive the next crack at the welterweight king. While the announcement was hardly drool worthy, it was the only match up that made sense at this point in time, as St. Pierre had literally beaten every other top fighter in the division.

For Silva, only a string of rematches (and Demian Maia) were awaiting him at middleweight. Despite Dan Henderson's stunning knockout of Michael Bisping, UFC president Dana White remained coy on announcing him as the next in line for a shot at Anderson Silva and instead chose to wait till after the Demian Maia-Nate Marquardt bout the following month to make an official decision. After Marquardt made short work of the Jiu-Jitsu wizard by producing a memorable knockout himself, it looked as though we had another eliminator in store, as Henderson and Marquardt would battle it out to earn a rematch with the world's premier middleweight.

It only made sense, why should the UFC go with one direction instead of the other? Why choose Swick over Kampmann? Henderson over Marquardt? Why not have them slug it out and earn their shot?

Unfortunately that wasn't to be, as Mike Swick injured himself while training for this month's PPV, and Dan Henderson showed disinterest in fighting at middleweight as long as it's not for the title. This turn of events threw those plans out of the window and has created a slightly difficult problem for the UFC to solve. With no clear cut challengers and no eliminator fights available, the UFC will have to put something together soon, as both GSP and Anderson are scheduled to return to competition early next year.

So with that in mind, let's take a look at the potential match ups that can be put together in the near future to help clear out the glooming clouds over the welterweight and middleweight title scenes.

Weltwerweight:

GSP's next fight will reportedly take place around January next year, which means a challenger needs to be chosen. The 170 division is even in a more complicated spot than the 185 division as rematches aside, no fighter is established enough to earn a title shot without needing at least one high profile win. The UFC could always throw Nate in a fight with Anderson without having to go through an extra fighter, but they don't have that privilege in the welterweight division.

Looking at names like Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck and even Matt Hughes, they are all going through a rebuilding phase. Koscheck is coming off an upset loss to Paolo Thiago, which pretty much throws him out of the equation. Thiago Alves has just lost to GSP and despite putting on a good fight, he is at least two big wins away from a second title shot. Hughes has twice been outclassed by the champion and has looked less than stellar in his recent outing against Matt Serra. He's another name in need of two wins before being back in title contention. Fitch has rebounded well from his loss to St. Pierre with wins over Chris Wilson and Paulo Thiago, but those fighters are hardly world beaters.

In my opinion, the best option would be to take Martin Kampmann off the UFC 103 card and push the already planned Swick-Kampmann bout to UFC 104, which needs a solid co-main event anyway (no disrespect to either Cain Velasquez or Ben Rothwell).



Eliminator fight: Mike Swick Vs Martin Kampmann.

But that's not all. Jon Fitch is currently scheduled to take on Ricardo Almeida, who will be making his welterweight debut at UFC 107. Furthermore, Matt Hughes has is believed to be ready to fight again by the end of the year. One fighter who often gets overlooked is Brock Larson. The man has a sublime professional record, and has been on a complete tear, yet he never seems to catch a break. Since joining the UFC after the merging of the WEC 170 division, Larson has only fought on the undercard. A main card fight and a step up in competition are long overdue, and Matt Hughes provides just that. Despite his age, Hughes is still one of the top welterweights in the world and can't be taken lightly.

The winner of the Fitch-Almeida bout would then take on the winner of the Hughes-Larson fight to determine the next number one contender.
And while it might seem harsh for Fitch to have to go through four fights before earning another swing at GSP, the one sidedness of the beating he received in their first encounter is still fresh on people's minds, and Fitch would have a lot of convincing to do for anyone to buy him as a legit threat to St. Pierre, especially after looking far from spectacular in his UFC 100 win over Paulo Thiago.

With the welterweight division out of the way, let's move on to Anderson Silva's world.

Middleweight:

Dan Henderson will almost certainly fight in the light heavyweight division next, so he's out of the picture for now. And while it is always possible, and quite frankly likely, that he would make another trip to the 185 division for a rematch with the Spider, it doesn't look as though it will be happening within the next few months.

I would have loved to see him take on Nate "The Great", but alas, it wasn't meant to be. Henderson accused Silva of ducking him, but I simply believe that with three fights left on his contract, Anderson isn't too interested in fighting in the middleweight division and instead would like to focus on superfights. A fight between Henderson and Marquardt means one less opponent at 185 for The Spider.



So does Marquardt stay on the shelf until early 2009 where he would get a shot at Silva? Frankly, I think there's little interest in that fight at the moment, and despite Nate looking in stunning form in his last three fights, he could use adding yet another highlight reel finish before taking on the man whose entire career has been a highlight reel.



Yushin Okami is criminally on the undercard of UFC 104 taking on Chael Sonnen. Scratch that fight altogether, schedule Okami Vs Marquardt for UFC 105 and whatever, with the winner taking on Silva later next year. Okami's title shot is long overdue anyway, and there's an interesting back story to play off given his previous "win" over Anderson.



Eliminator fight: Nate Marquardt Vs Yushin Okami.

Many will argue that neither fighter holds much of a chance against arguably the world's top pound for pound fighter, but let's face it, not many fighters do. One fighter who does hold a chance, at least in some people's eyes, and slight one at that, is Vitor Belfort (I personally don't see it although I would pay to watch it).

Many have been discussing the match up ever since Vitor's destruction of Matt Lindland earlier this year. For that to come to fruition however, Belfort needs to beat Rich Franklin later this month. Should that happen, a rematch between him and a certain Axe Murderer would be welcomed. The winner could get destroyed by The Spider at a later date.

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That will be all for this week, tune in next week as I will be discussing the match ups to determine the number contenders in the heavyweight, light heavyweight and lightweight division (after Carwin, Shogun and Sanchez respectively). Feedback is always appreciated, please leave your comments below.