Blood On The Mat 09.10.09: What’s At Stake

Posted by  on 09.10.2009

There may not be a title fight next week, but there’s plenty at stake for the fighters at UFC 103 and Fight Night 19. 411’s Adam Tool looks at the featured match-ups of each card to see what the participants stand to gain should they emerge victorious.

Welcome back to Blood On The Mat. My name is Adam Tool and I'm ready for this week to be over. Even though it's only been a few weeks since UFC 102 it feels like forever since we got some fresh MMA goodness. Luckily the UFC is coming through in a big way next week with two live events and the premiere of what could arguably be the most anticipated season of "The Ultimate Fighter" in the show's history.



Due to the fact that none of next week's bouts will have a title up for grabs, some may be tempted to say that there's nothing on the line. This couldn't be further from the truth, as many of the match-ups during Fight Night 19 and UFC 103 will have serious implications on the future of several UFC divisions. Rather than breaking the fights down and trying to determine who will win, I thought I would look at the top fights and their participants to see what they will win. We'll start with UFC 103 and…

Vitor Belfort

What he could win: Instant contendership in his old stomping grounds


You ever try to put a normal belt over your shoulder? Doesn‘t look nearly as cool.

In my opinion, of all the fighters we're going to talk about today it's Belfort that stands to gain the most from winning his contest. If you don't think getting "The Phenom" was a big deal for Dana White and Co. then allow me to remind you that they were promoting the guy during the last Ultimate Fighter Finale, despite the fact that he hadn't even re-signed with the company at that point.

He's already notched up several notable accomplishments in the octagon. He won the heavyweight tournament more than twelve years ago at UFC 12. After that came his 44 second demolition of Wanderlei Silva at UFC: Brazil. After some time in PRIDE he came back to the UFC to win the Light Heavyweight Championship from Randy Couture (via an unfortunate eye injury less than one minute into the fight). He lost the belt right back to Couture, then lost to Tito Ortiz, and hasn't been in the UFC since.

Having re-emerged as a middleweight, Belfort is currently on a four-fight tear with his last two wins over Matt Lindland and Terry Martin coming via KTFO. Currently the UFC has a champion at middleweight desperate for some fresh competition. A win over the former champion of the division would instantly place Belfort's name very high on Joe Silva's list of possible contenders.


Win or lose, he still gets to come home to this

Rich Franklin

What he could win: Umm…

Seriously, what does Franklin stand to gain from this fight? The only thing I can come up with is another solid name under his win column, but that's about it.

Since losing his second fight with Anderson Silva, Franklin has done a lot of work to not get very far in his career. Granted, he has headlined three UFC PPVs this year. Let us not forget though, that all three fights will have been against guys that used to be light heavyweight fighters that are now or will be fighting in the middleweight division. Despite his decision to permanently move up to 205, Franklin is still playing the role of gatekeeper for the 185 belt.


Don't know if I could ever be tight with a guy that's smashed my face in twice, but that's me

When will the time come that Franklin gets to face somebody who is still relevant in the upper-levels of his division? He can't rise up the ranks of contenders unless he's actually fighting contenders. Rashad Evans has been left without an upcoming opponent, what about him? Randy Couture seems to be heading back down in weight, how about that match-up? Forrest Griffin's probably stopped running by now, couldn't he make his way back into a gym?

Franklin has to be thinking about that light heavyweight belt, and a shot at possibly avenging one of his career losses against Lyoto Machida. For his sake I hope he gets some more favorable match-making coming his way with a win over Belfort. Otherwise I suppose there's always that acting career…



Mirko Cro Cop

What he could win: A second chance at a chance

What I mean by that is, if he can win next week then Cro Cop could get another #1 contender fight in the near future. As we all remember, his first chance a title shot didn't end so well.


In addition to his fighting career, and his years of public service, Cro Cop is a dangerous Twister player

So now we have UFC Cro Cop v. 2.0. In his return to the company earlier this year, Cro Cop looked less than stellar in his win over Mostapha Al-Turk. He did get the win, but it was over an unimpressive opponent and he used an eye-poke/uppercut combo to do it.

While the UFC was desperate for heavyweight challengers during Cro Cop's first run, they're a bit thicker with competition this time around. Cain Velasquez and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira seem to be towards the top of the list at the moment, and if Mirko wants to get near the belt he'll likely have to beat one of those names I just mentioned.


As a child he excelled at math, social science, and head-kickery

First, of course, he must beat this guy:

Junior dos Santos

What he could win: A cozy spot amongst the heavyweight elite

Junior dos Santos will not be denied.


Dos Santos shows how loud his amps go

He came into the UFC with six first-round stoppages, and has continued that streak in both of his octagon appearances. The first was the biggest (so far) as he stunned the MMA world with a devastating KO of potential contender Fabricio Werdum. The sight of Werdum's ear wiggling as he eats that uppercut is easily one of my favorite memories of UFC 90. Of course, that wasn't exactly a night filled with great memories…


He kicked me in my leg! Nobody told me there would be kicking involved!

Regardless, dos Santos has stated that he only wants to be the best and fight the best. That's the kind of mentality you have to have if you train at Black House with guys like the Nogueira brothers, Anderson Silva, and Lyoto Machida. A win over the "Croatian Sensation" would undoubtedly signal the start of big-name fights for the young Brazilian. Should he continue his winning ways it's all the more certain that we'll see him fight for gold in 2010.

Nate Diaz

What he could win: The opportunity to step out of his brother's shadow

2009 has to have been a tough year in the Diaz household. While Nick has seen his career soar with impressive wins over Frank Shamrock and Scott Smith, Nate has stalled with back-to-back losses against Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson. At least he can take solace in the fact that he's won three straight "Fight of the Night" honors, but that bonus money doesn't change the truth. Nick has always been the bigger name and that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.


Nate looked to get the fight over with quickly so he could enjoy his brother's home-made brownies

I would imagine that Nate is desperate to establish his own name in the world of MMA, in the hopes that he can become more than "Nick Diaz's little brother that also fights." He struck out initially by winning over a very tough crop of fighters on season 5 of "TUF." Then there was that nice little four-fight win streak that followed. The new year hit, and it's all been downhill from there.

On paper, there's no reason Nate shouldn't win his fight next week. He can own his opponent all day on the ground, and he's more than capable on the feet as well. He may not lose his job if he doesn't win, but 0-3 in the UFC's deep lightweight division is not the best place to be as a young fighter.

Melvin Guillard

What he could win: Some respect.

Unlike his opponent, Guillard enters the main event next week on a nice little win streak. Well, nice in that he's won three fights in a row. Nevermind the fact that most people think he should have lost his bout with Gleison Tibau, a win is still a win.


In the heat of the moment, Melvin straddled the cage wrong and damaged his little Guillards

Before the Tibau fight the biggest win of Guillard's UFC career is Marcus Davis, and that was due to a cut. After that the names start dropping down to guys like Gabe Ruediger and Dennis Siver. He's won more fights than he's lost in the octagon, but there's nobody in his win column that could launch him to the next level of competition. Unless he beats Diaz, of course.

Despite Nate's recent run of bad luck, he's still well-respected within the lightweight ranks. He's a tough opponent for any fighter, but Guida and Stevenson showed that a strong wrestler can get the job done. Melvin Guillard is not a strong wrestler. He is a powerful striker, and if anybody can crack the notoriously tough Diaz Chin then it's probably Guillard.

Melvin needs this win if he ever wants to be taken seriously in the lightweight ranks. On top of that he's already seen numerous hits to his reputation with regards to his use of cocaine, so any loss could easily be his last fight ever in the UFC.

Gray Maynard

What he could win: A shot at gold

If he beats Roger Huerta, is there any reason why Maynard shouldn't get the next shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship?

Perhaps you disagree, and that's fine. Do me a favor though, go ahead and make a list of potential contenders within the UFC lightweight division. Chances are you'll come up with names like Edgar, Griffin, Sherk, and Guida. One thing you might also notice is that all of those guys have losses against other possible contenders…all of them, except for Gray Maynard.


Woah, woah…what's wrong with my hair?

He may still be young but his record is hard to argue against. Obviously the biggest win of his career came over Frank Edgar, but he's also taken out tough competitors like Rich Clementi and Jim Miller. The fight with Huerta will likely provide the biggest exposure yet for "The Bully," and if his hand is raised at the end of it then I believe Maynard's next fight should come against the champion.

If Diego Sanchez emerges as that champion after UFC 107, then it's an intriguing match-up of the explosive striker versus the powerhouse wrestler. More intriguing, however, is the possibility of Maynard facing off with current champ BJ Penn. Penn was responsible for introducing Maynard to the sport, and of course Gray was picked by BJ to be a part of his team on season five of "The Ultimate Fighter." I don't doubt that the UFC would love to promote a title fight featuring a "coach vs. student" angle. After all they would have done it already with Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell had Rashad Evans not played spoiler at UFC 88.

Roger Huerta

What he could win: Renewed bargaining power with the UFC

What a long strange trip it's been for Roger Huerta in the UFC. He got the full force of the company's marketing power behind him as he went on a six-fight win streak in the octagon (including his Fight of the Year performance against Clay Guida), and garnered some major mainstream attention as a Sports Illustrated cover boy.


Roger finally gets revenge for all those nights when he got sent to bed early

Then his momentum stalled when he decided to take some time off for most of 2008. Then there was the controversial interview with FIGHT! Magazine, and the reports of failed contract negotiations. According to sources, Huerta was asking for a deal that was better than the one currently enjoyed by the lightweight champion BJ Penn. Huerta's next fight was a one-sided decision loss to Kenny Florian at UFC 87, and he hasn't been seen since. Earlier this year word got out that Huerta was not re-signing with the UFC in order to focus on an acting career, and as such this fight with Maynard represents the last bout on his contract.

If Huerta's serious about acting (which at this point, he doesn't seem to be) then a win or a loss next week won't mean much. If he's looking to continue fighting though, he's got to win in order to get anywhere near BJ Penn-money. A victory over Maynard would allow Huerta more control if he should re-enter contract negotiations with the UFC, just as it would give him better leverage should he decide to take his skills elsewhere. Strikeforce would almost certainly love to have him, as they'll need contenders once Josh Thomson and Gilbert Melendez finally have their rematch. There's also Bellator, who is getting ready to start their second season. They've done a great job promoting to the Latino audience and obviously Huerta would fit right in there.

Whichever way each of these fights goes, all of them have the potential to steal their respective shows. Hopefully each fighter enters the cage fully aware of what they stand to gain, in the hopes that we see the best of them once the bell rings.

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