411 MMA Fact or Fiction 09.16.09: Kimbo, UFC 103, Fight Night 19, The Ultimate Fighter Season 10, More

Posted by  on 09.16.2009

Are we going to see Kimbo in the UFC whether he wins or loses on The Ultimate Fighter? Is Vitor Belfort going to knock Rich Franklin out? Will Nate Diaz and Melvin Guillard win “Fight of the Night?” 411 MMA columnists Samer Kadi and Patrick Mullin debate those topics and more in this week’s Fact or Fiction!

We have no less than six hours of UFC goodness heading our way over the next four days. Tonight is Fight Night 19 and the season premiere of The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights. If that wasn't enough, Saturday brings us a card that is overflowing with good fights in UFC 103.

I'm Adam Tool, filling in for one week only on Fact or Fiction duties. Your usual host, Jeremy Lambert, was not available this week as he got way too distraught after last night's episodes of 90210 and Melrose Place. Debating the topics this week we have our very own Rear Naked columnist, Samer Kadi and the man who always has the Blueprint, Patrick Mullin.

We've got plenty to talk about, so in the words of Cecil Peoples…LET'S DANCE!



1. Vitor Belfort will continue his current streak and knock Rich Franklin out.

Patrick Mullin: FACT. Vitor's finally gotten closure on his family tragedy and its allowed him to give new life to his personal and professional lives. He's never looked better in his entire career and he's a nightmare match up for Rich. Franklin likes to outclass guys with his boxing and left body kick. Against Vitor he's facing a guy not only with superior technical boxing, but heavier hands and quicker hands. The left body kick isn't going to work at its normal effectiveness because Vitor is a southpaw like Rich, thus the kick is going to land more toward Vitor's back than his midsection and it'll be easier to see coming and catch or evade. Vitor has a golden opportunity here.

Samer Kadi: FACT. Initially, I was leaning towards Rich on this one. I learned some time ago never to trust Vitor Belfort, one of the most inconsistent fighters out there. But thinking about it, I do think Belfort is in a right place mentally at the moment. He's seemingly rejuvenated, both inside and outside the ring, especially after finding a new home at Xtreme Couture. He was willing to step up and take on Fedor, which is not something you do if your confidence wasn't at an all time high. Furthermore, just like Patrick pointed out, Vitor is exactly the kind of guy to give Franklin some problems. He's a southpaw (just like Rich), extremely fast, accurate and possesses some great technical boxing. Rich had trouble dealing with Wanderlei's aggression, and at this stage of his career, Silva isn't as fast or as precise as The Phenom. I think Vitor can make an immediate impact by stopping Franklin at UFC 103.

SCORE: 1 for 1. Franklin's only been stopped by two other men, and both of them were Brazilian. THINK ABOUT IT.

2. The winner of Cro Cop vs. Dos Santos is one win (or less) away from a title shot.

Patrick Mullin: FICTION. Crocop hasn't beaten a good heavyweight in three years, and has lost to two top 15's at best. Junior dos Santos has beaten one top 15 heavyweight in his career, and even if he beats Crocop which I don't see happening he's still a long way away from a title shot. Keep in mind guys due for title shots ahead of them include Cain Velasquez, Big Nog, potentially Brock should he lose to Shane Carwin, and there's always the chance they'd throw in whoever wins this season of TUF to capitalize on its popularity, especially if its a seasoned guy like Big Country Nelson.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. Although I can see it happening. Carwin is next in line, but you have the likes of Velasquez (assuming he beats Rothwell) and Nogueira too, and both these guys are more deserving of a title shot. With that said, it depends on what sort of match making the UFC decides to do. If Cro Cop comes out victorious, I could see them matching him up with Big Nog. If Mirko wins that rematch, a title shot is something to take into consideration. Dos Santos is in a tougher spot. Even with a win over Cro Cop, Dos Santos won't be facing Minotauro whom he considers a mentor. Which means a fight with the winner of Mir-Kongo is possibly in the books. I think Junior's lack of name value will derail his quest for the title, unless he puts on an impressive streak.

SCORE: 2 for 2. One thing we can all agree on: the UFC heavyweight division doesn't suck anymore.



3. Nate Diaz and Melvin Guillard will win "Fight of the Night."

Patrick Mullin FACT.What a great match up this is. You have two guys who are young, tough, and on the chopping block. Its a classic striker vs. grappler match up and the added incentive of possibly being cut is there for both guys. Each of them is going to put it all on the line and come with everything they have to keep their UFC dreams alive. I expect a firefight going toe to toe and on the mat and back and forth. It should be a hell of a lot of fun.

Samer Kadi: FACT. I'm looking forward to Maynard-Huerta more, but I think Gray will easily dominate that one with his superior wrestling. Clay Guida was able to take Huerta down at will, and I see Maynard doing the same thing, minus the excitement. Guillard-Diaz is your typical striker Vs grappler match up, and although I'm not sure about Guillard being in the main event of any show at the moment, the fight could be very entertaining. Nate is always active on the ground, be it from the top or the bottom and will be looking to take the fight down at the first given opportunity. Guillard is an explosive striker with heavy hands. He's one of the few fighters in the lightweight division to have some serious knockout power, and could end the affair with one punch. This one could end with a quick submission or knockout (by Diaz and Guillard respectively) or it could be a three round back and forth war.

SCORE: 3 for 3. No matter who wins, the post-fight antics/interview should be awesome.

Video Intermission


4. Win or lose, tonight will be the last time we see Roger Huerta in the UFC.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. Huerta is 26 years old and even with a loss to Maynard (which would be his second straight), the guy is undeniably talented. The fight will be the last on his contract and he will be leaving the company to pursue an acting career, but I don't think that will last very long. The UFC is targeting the Hispanic market, and for that alone Huerta can always be useful. I think Roger won't find too much joy in the movie business and will ultimately realize that the UFC suits him much better. In turn they will throw enough money at him to bring him back. The guy has an upside: he's young, exciting, and has the "it" factor, at least for a portion of the viewers.

Patrick Mullin: FICTION. Dana White has shown a willingness to let anything go so long as he'll make money. If the UFC ever wants to expand into a place like Mexico, Huerta would be one of the guys Dana would be best served to market there. If there's money to be made, and there will be, Huerta will have a home in the UFC. He's a good fighter but just needs to get his head on straight.

SCORE: 4 for 4. We'll make you a deal Hollywood: You can have Huerta, just give us back Cung Le.



5. Roy Nelson will be the next "Ultimate Fighter."

Samer Kadi: FICTION. Nelson is one of the most experienced fighters on the show and arguably the most talented. In my mind he will be the favorite. With that said, stranger things have happened in the world of MMA and I can't proclaim with 100% certainty that Nelson will be the winner. After all, this is a heavyweight season and with guys that big who hit so hard, one punch can change the entire outcome of a fight.

Patrick Mullin: FACT. Nelson is too seasoned to lose to the guys in this cast. His last fight was one with Jeff Monson that I thought he won, and the only guy to make Nelson look bad has been Andrei Arlovski, no shame there. The only guy on the cast I can see troubling Roy would be dark horse Jon Madsen, a great wrestler with heavy hands. Sims is the only guy close to Roy's level of experience against good fighters and he's had no success there. Intangibles make the difference amongst the big guys and Nelson's BJJ skills are going to be the x-factor that guys won't be ready for.

SCORE: 4 for 5. As they say, looks aren't everything.

6. Kimbo Slice will fight in the UFC whether or not he wins a single bout on the show.

Samer Kadi: FACT. At least on the Ultimate Finale. All fighters get a chance to fight at least on the undercard of the show, so why would Kimbo be an exception? In fact, I think Kimbo will end up fighting on the main card, and you will hear Goldberg and Rogan talk over and over about how "he's been taking his training very seriously since the reality show" and how he's now a "new, dedicated man" and whatnot. They did it to Junie Browning, I think Kimbo will get the same treatment. I believe the UFC will be smart enough to match him up with the weakest link on the show at the Ultimate Finale (assuming it won't be Slice himself), and with a little luck, Kimbo would win and gets to fight at least a couple of more times.

Patrick Mullin: FACT. Is there money to be made when Kimbo fights? Then that's all you need to know. If Dana can make money off of something he'll do it. He degraded Kimbo and now that he's gone through TUF he can brainwash people into believing Kimbo is fighting for love of the sport, and the UFC fans a.k.a sheep will buy it just like they buy that the UFC heavyweight division is deep because the talent level is good, not because everybody is flawed.

SCORE: 5 for 6. The real question is: are we ever going to get Slice vs. Shamrock?

Patrick and Samer agree more often than not. Hopefully they've already exchanged their friendship bracelets.

Join us next week when two more writers will discuss the fallout from this week's action as well as any other goings-on in the MMA world.