The Rear Naked Column 09.16.09: Determining the Contenders (Part 2)

Posted by Samer Kadi on 09.16.2009

After looking through the potential match ups to determine the number 1 contenders in the middleweight and welterweight divisions last week, “The Rear Naked Column” continues its two part quest to establish the top contenders in each weight class. Join 411’s Samer Kadi as he takes on the heavyweight, light heavyweight and lightweight divisions.

Last week, I talked about the importance of "eliminator fights" in determining an undisputed number one contender in a particular division. As I mentioned, those fights wipe out any sort of doubt regarding the legitimacy of the challenger, and would further add to his credibility as he would have absolutely earned the title shot by toppling a fellow top contender.

I understand the UFC's reluctance to put together number one contender fights. From a business standpoint, they limit their options. While one fighter firmly establishes his bid for the title, another gets knocked off the ladder, which could create an awkward situation in case things don't go according to plan. Case in point, the initial Georges St. Pierre-BJ Penn fight back in 2006. GSP came out victorious and officially became next in line for a title shot against Matt Hughes. When Georges got injured in the weeks leading up to the fight, Penn –the guy he had just defeated– took his place. This was far from an ideal scenario as far as generating hype goes. The UFC was lucky enough to have a back story with Penn having defeated Hughes for the title two years earlier.

One fight that could have been described as an "eliminator fight" is the previously scheduled Shane Carwin-Cain Velasquez bout. Unfortunately, the UFC scratched that contest and opted instead to grant Carwin an immediate shot at Brock Lesnar next November, which in my opinion, was a mistake. The heavyweight division is ever growing, and it is definitely not suffering from a shortage of potential contenders. But I do believe things should have been handled differently.

Heavyweight:

Two major heavyweight battles were set for this year, with a clash between veterans Randy Couture and Antonio Minotauro Nogueira, as well as a highly anticipated encounter between rising stars Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez. The general consensus was that the more impressive fighter in victory would get a crack at Brock Lesnar's title. Dana White then declared that the winner of the Carwin-Velasquez fight at UFC 104 would be the official number one contender. Unfortunately, with Dana and company wanting Lesnar to fight before the end of the year, they felt they had to rush an announcement and scheduled the Lesnar-Carwin title fight for the fall, thus scratching the Carwin-Velasquez eliminator and leaving the winner of Couture-Nogueira in a limbo.

Nogueira then turned in his best performance in the UFC by totally outclassing "The Natural", and fans were quickly crying for Minotauro to be awarded a fight for the title. With Lesnar-Carwin announced for UFC 106, the UFC was left with a minor headache as far as figuring out the heavyweight division situation.

In my mind, the UFC should have never cancelled Carwin's fight with Velasquez. At the end of the day, both fighters have only defeated one quality opponent in their careers: Gabriel Gonzaga and Cheick Kongo respectively. The winner of last month's Couture-Nogueira contest should have been next in line, as both men bring a resume that most fighters would only dream of as well as some serious name value.



Eliminator fight: Cain Velasquez Vs Shane Carwin

Minotauro Nogueira should be taking on Brock Lesnar at UFC 106, especially after surviving the Couture fight relatively unscathed. There was no reason whatsoever to cancel the Carwin-Velasquez fight, which not only would have determined the next number one contender but would have also served as a very solid co-main event to the Shogun-Machida title fight.



Furthermore, the UFC could also have the winner of the upcoming Cro Cop-Junior Dos Santos bout take on the winner of the Frank Mir-Cheick Kongo fight at UFC 107, and whoever comes out victorious would get a chance to fight for the gold. This, in theory would clear up the heavyweight title scene for up to a year.

Light heavyweight:

At UFC 104, newly crowned champ Lyoto Machida will lock horns with fellow countryman Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Once considered the top 205'er in the world, Rua struggled early on in his UFC career, with a loss to Forrest Griffin and a lackluster win over the equally disappointing Mark Coleman. But at UFC 97, Shogun showed flashes of his PRIDE brilliance with a first round knockout of UFC hall of famer Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell.



The victory, coupled with some very fortunate circumstances granted Shogun the chance to capture the title most people thought he inevitably would when he first joined the UFC. Rampage Jackson, who was widely considered the number one contender in the division, chose to pass up on an opportunity to fight for the belt and instead decided to coach on Season 10 of "The Ultimate Fighter" where he would square off against bitter rival Rashad Evans upon its conclusion.

Despite the stacked nature of the light heavyweight division, few fighters can lay claim to a title shot in the immediate future. Once Jackson and Evans were locked up for TUF, Shogun Rua became the only available option, and he was hardly on the heels of a ground breaking winning streak.

I think what's next for the light heavyweight division will largely depend on the outcome of the Machida-Shogun fight. You have to assume the battle of the coaches featuring Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans will be considered an eliminator. But what if both Machida and Evans win, which is not beyond the realm of possibility, do they have their rematch so soon? Does one win, big as it may be, grant Evans a shot at redemption against the man who absolutely thrashed him just a few months ago?

The best outcome the UFC could hope for would be for Jackson to topple Evans, which would mark his third straight victory over a quality opponent. Jackson and Machida would do great business in my opinion. Jackson-Rua would be a much anticipated bout as well, given the history of the two (Rua demolished Rampage a few years ago in PRIDE).

Eliminator fight: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson Vs Rashad Evans.



I think it's only logical, even if both Rashad and Machida were victorious. Despite being loaded with talent, few fighters have put together respectable streaks against top opponents in the division to earn a title shot in the near future. Evans and Jackson are the most established names and the winner of their battle should get the opportunity to reclaim the gold.

One mouth watering prospect would be the permanent addition of middleweight champion and pound for pound king Anderson Silva to the light heavyweight division. In his two trips to the 205 weight class, Silva made total mockery out of his opponents, including a recent virtuoso performance against former champion Forrest Griffin. If he decides to put his friendship with Machida aside and seriously look to claim the the division's throne, a number one contenders' fight with a certain Natural (if Couture is successful against Brandon Vera) would be more than welcomed.

Lightweight:

BJ Penn is scheduled to take on Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez at UFC 107 in what should be a fascinating battle. The UFC lightweight division is full of talent, yet few fighters have established their position at the top. Kenny Florian was unsuccessful in his title shot against BJ Penn, Sean Sherk's quest to regain the gold was derailed with an upset loss to Frankie Edgar, and Clay Guida doesn't seem to be able to put a decent winning streak together. On the other hand, two fighters who have been doing very well are Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar.

The problem is these two have already fought with Maynard coming out victorious, so an eliminator bout between the pair makes little sense. If Maynard is victorious in tonight's fight with Roger Huerta, it would be very hard to deny him a title shot. With quality wins over Rich Clementi, Jim Miller and the aforementioned Edgar, Maynard is an undefeated fighter who, at least on paper, can pose an interesting match up problem for The Prodigy.



In my opinion, this is the one division that can't afford to have number one contenders' fight. With Penn's aspirations often exceeding the lightweight division, the UFC needs every viable contender they can get. Their best case scenario would be for Maynard to best Huerta tonight and affirm his status as the top contender, and for Frankie Edgar to continue his impressive run by adding a win or two. And who knows, maybe Urijah Faber, in an awkward spot after being twice defeated by current champion Mike Brown, would decide to move up in weight and add further depth to the always exciting 155 lbs division.

That is it for this week, don't forget to join 411's live coverage of UFC Fight Night 19 with Nate Diaz taking on Melvin Guillard in the main event. Right after that, Patrick Mullin will have you covered for the debut of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, featuring Rampage Jackson, Rashad Evans and Kimbo Slice. I don't know about you but I'm certainly excited.

Please leave your comments below, any feedback is greatly appreciated.