Cardio Freak MMA News Report 9.28.09: On The Decline
Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 09.28.2009
This week in Cardio Freak: With the possible retirement of Mirko "Cro Cop", I take a look at why dominant fighters start to slip. Plus thoughts on Quinton Jackson's "retirement", Belfort vs. Silva, and Kimbo vs. Nelson. It draws more than Floyd Mayweather, it's Cardio Freak on 411.
Headline News
"Shit happens and shit"
In the past week two fighters have reportedly retired. Quinton Jackson has possibly stepped away from the sport due to issues with Dana White and him feeling a bit disrespected by the company and the owner. Oh yeah, he also wants to be a movie star. Mirko "Cro Cop" has possibly retired feeling that he just doesn't have it anymore. I'll get to the Jackson story later.
The comment that struck me in Mirko's possible retirement statement is that he said he should have retired after winning the PRIDE 2006 Open Weight GP. Obviously that wasn't going to happen. It's very rare that someone in MMA will retire on top. No one wants to retire on a win because if you win, you obviously have some fight left. It's tough to walk away from your job when you feel that you're at the top of your game and winning fights. Some fighters have done this but unless they have an injury that just won't allow them to fight, all those fighters come back. Fighters usually retire when they lose badly to younger fighters and the general public is pretty much demanding them to hang it up. Even then the fighter still feels that he has something to prove coming off a loss or two.
A big question in MMA is, "when does a fighter just lose ‘it'"? One moment they're on top of the world and two fights later they should retire.
Randy Couture has proven that you can get by on age if you've taken care of your body over the years. Unfortunately it doesn't always work like that. Randy Couture was 33 years old when he made his professional debut. Wanderlei Silva is currently 33 years old and has 44 professional fights combined with countless gym wars. The decline of certain fighters probably lies somewhere in between.
As you get older you start to slow down. Your speed and reflexes just aren't the same when you're 40 as they are when you're 30. If you combine that with a high number of highly competitive fights and training sessions, you're adding years to your body. It really doesn't help when you fight as much as guy like Wanderlei Silva used to because you don't take the proper time to heal any type of nagging injury and it only gets worse as you continue to compete. Couture is a case where maybe he's just getting too old to compete at a high level because he just can't keep up with younger guys. Silva is a case where he's still relatively young but has declined because of how many wars he's been in. Dan Henderson proves that you can start relatively young and still compete at a high level even in your late 30's if you're smart about your fighting schedule. Since starting in 1997, Henderson has never fought more than four times in a year and he's only done that twice. Compare that Wanderlei Silva who is seven years younger than Henderson and only started fighting seven months before Henderson but has fought four times in a year seven times and has even competed as much as six times in one year.
A guy like Mirko "Cro Cop" is right in the middle. He's 35 years old so he's considered past his prime but he's also had 23 kickboxing fights, 35 MMA fights, and had a stretch of 21 fights in four years. Randy Couture has only had 26 fights in his entire 12 year career.
Maybe a fighter declines because he's in a different situation. It's certainly a possibility in the case of Mirko "Cro Cop". In the ring he always looked comfortable and used the angles to his advantage. In the cage he was tentative and could never seem to get his footing. If Fedor (Presented by M-1 Global) goes on to lose two of three in Strikeforce then it could have a lot to do with him fighting in the cage instead of a ring. Some fighters just don't adjust properly. Deeper than the environment situation, there's always the drug testing situation. Although nothing have ever really been proven, it's widely speculated that a lot of Japan fighters were on steroids and of course that all changed when they started competing in the US. Maybe the possibility of being on the juice and then being off it has led to the decline of certain fighters.
Another factor just could be something as simple as "mystique." Certain fighters have had that mystique about them over the years. Wanderlei Silva, Chuck Liddell, Mirko "Cro Cop", Fedor Presented by M-1 Global, Matt Hughes ect…. Those are the guys who could just say, "I'm going to dominate this guy" and while no fighter should ever utter those words, you knew it was going to be true. The best example of this is when Chuck Liddell said, "I'm gonna knock him out" to Renato Sobral during the UFC 62 pre-event press conference and everyone in the room, including Sobral himself, knew it was true. It's not uncommon for fighters to lose before they even enter the fight because in their minds they know they can't win.
Once a fighter has their "mystique" ruined, maybe they're ruined. Hughes after St. Pierre, Liddell after Jackson, Mirko after Gonzaga, Silva after Hunt. Once they lost, they were never really same. Fighters saw that these guys were beatable and thus weren't afraid of them anymore.
Finally, sometimes the competition is just too good. If top fighters always face top fighters, they're bound to lose. It's just the nature of the sport. Wanderlei Silva is in a bad stretch right now but look at the guys he's faced. All of his loses have come against guys who are former champions or tournament winners. Not exactly scrubs. Maybe Wanderlei Silva isn't the same PRIDE Wanderlei Silva but he's still a damn good fighter. Randy Couture has lost two straight but look at who beat him. It's always easy to make excuses for why a fighter loses but really we should be crediting the fighter who wins.
I think Quinton Jackson sums up why fighters lose "it" over the years, "shit happens and shit."
Major UFC/WEC News
On September 22 Quinton Jackson announced on his website that he was going to retire mainly due to differences with Dana White and him wanting to pursue a career in acting.
Firstly I want to take credit for foreshadowing this news as last weeks column was titled "Acting For Fighting" in reference to Roger Huerta and Cung Le. Of course I knew a day later that Quinton Jackson would leave fighting for acting but I'm not the type of guy that likes to break news. I prefer to sprain it.
This news is a week old and I'm sure you all have already read all the quotes and know all the details so I'm not going to get into that. Adam Tool did a great job breaking down all the quotes and such in a halfway readable article.
Simply put, I don't think Quinton Jackson is retired. We've seen this same song and dance plenty times between Dana and big UFC stars and the end result is always the same: Big UFC star and Dana kiss and make up. I'm not saying this whole thing is a "work" in the pro wrestling sense because it doesn't seem like something Quinton and Dana would drum up (unless Quinton really wanted to put his acting abilities to the test) to increase interest in Jackson vs. Evans. In the end that's what this is going to do. Jackson announces he's retired, Dana acts like he doesn't care, Rashad says Quinton is ducking him, Jackson says he'll come back to fight Rashad, the headline some PPV, it does 500 million buys, everyone gets paid, and they all lived happily ever after.
Sorry if you were expecting more analysis from me on this situation but I think the whole thing is a non-situation. Maybe I'm blinded by the fact that I grew up on pro wrestling and now I do nothing but watch MMA and no one ever retires in either sport but I just don't buy that Quinton Jackson is done fighting. He'll be back folks. And when he comes back, no one should be shocked.
On September 25 The LATimes reported that Anderson Silva will defend his UFC Middleweight Title against Vitor Belfort at UFC 108. UFC 108 is scheduled for January 2, 2010.
Everyone look forward to next week when it's reported that, "Anderson Silva doesn't want to fight his good friend Vitor Belfort."
Was anyone shocked when this fight was announced? Dana White publically stated a week before Affliction: Out of Business that he wanted to sign Vitor Belfort and do Belfort vs. Silva. After Belfort defeated Franklin it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that he would fight Silva over Henderson or Marquardt, even though I still believe Henderson deserves a title shot more than Belfort.
It's obviously an intriguing fight because Silva has that "mystique" right now and Belfort is always one quick flurry away from finishing things but it just doesn't seem like a big time fight. Maybe that's because I can't favor any striker against Silva because as good as Belfort's striking is, he's not on the level of Anderson Silva. At least with Henderson there's the possibility of Henderson putting Silva on the ground but with Belfort you know it's going to be a striking contest and you know Silva is the better striker. Could Belfort catch Silva with a quick flurry and finish him? Of course. But right now is anyone favoring Belfort in this fight? Please let me know.
The good thing about this fight is that Silva will view Belfort as a threat, which means he'll actually fight him. That's the one negative towards the Henderson and Marquardt rematches. Silva doesn't view either of those guys as threats so he could mail in a performance, probably lose if he did just because Henderson and Marquardt are much better than Leites and Cote, and everyone would hate him again. At the very least Belfort won't just sit back and let Silva do nothing en route to a decision.
On September 23 it was announced at the end of The Ultimate Fighter 10 Episode 2 that Kimbo Slice would fight Roy Nelson on the September 30th episode of the show.
This is only news because I expect Kimbo vs. Nelson to be the highest rated TUF episode ever and I told everyone from the start that Roy Nelson would win the whole thing while some writers (names withheld) called people "morons" and "idiots" if they thought anyone but Kimbo was going to win the season. For the record I have not read any spoilers as I generally stay away from major MMA message boards.
The weird thing about this fight is UFC is promoting it like a huge deal. Obviously they should do so but they have a conference call scheduled with Kimbo Slice to talk about a fight where he already knows the result. The only thing I don't like about that is everyone is going to read far too much into his comments. If Kimbo says, "I plan on knocking him out" everyone will think he knocks him out. If he says, "he's got a nasty armbar" everyone will assume he gets tapped from an armbar. Again, they should promote that Kimbo Slice is fighting but it still seems a bit weird to promote the fight like they are where the result is already known.
I give Rashad Evans a lot of credit for making this fight. I'm not the biggest Rashad Evans fan in the world because he KO'd Chuck Liddell and his personality seems forced but he generally seems like a smart guy. This is a smart fight for a number of reasons. First off, Roy Nelson is the most accomplished fighter in the house and has the best ground game so he seems like the perfect opponent to beat Kimbo. Having Kimbo face a striker benefits Kimbo because we know he has a punches chance against anyone willing to stand with him. He obviously has a punchers chance against Nelson but chances are if the fight hits the ground, Nelson won't take too long to tap him. That's why I thought it was stupid of Quinton Jackson not to chose the match up for Kimbo in one of the first two weeks because then he could pit him against a striker and he could have him fight early when guys haven't had time to learn and improve.
The fight is also smart because right now Kimbo is the name guy in the house who everyone knows, recognizes, and thinks is the best fighter ever. Unfortunately he's really not that good and he's bound to lose. So if he's going to lose, he might as well lose to the guy who is the best fighter in the house. That not only establishes Nelson's name but if/when Nelson wins the whole thing everyone can just say, "well Kimbo may have lost but he lost to the best guy." Plus if he loses he'll probably lose by submission and everyone already knows that his ground game isn't good. So everyone can just say, "big deal, he lost by submission to an expert grappler when he sucks on the ground. He's still a killer on the feet." Was Evans thinking about this when he made the fight? Probably not but I give him, or anyone who might have told this to him, a lot of credit.
Again, I haven't read anything about the fight but I'm predicting Nelson by second round submission.
No More News
That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with something new. Take care everyone.
MMA is alot more like Pro Wrestling than most fans are willing to admit, or realize.
Posted By: Guest#8539 (Guest) on September 27, 2009 at 11:52 PM
Ahh, I am a big Rashad Evans fan because he did KO Chuck Liddell. We are at odds my friend.
Posted By: Guest#7411 (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 12:32 AM
re: "The fight is also smart because right now Kimbo is the name guy in the house who everyone knows, recognizes, and thinks is the best fighter ever."
maybe i missed something, but most of the fighters in the house look down on kimbo and don't think he deserves to be so hyped. him being the most recognizable just puts a target on his back.
Posted By: buddha (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 12:36 AM
"re: "The fight is also smart because right now Kimbo is the name guy in the house who everyone knows, recognizes, and thinks is the best fighter ever."
maybe i missed something, but most of the fighters in the house look down on kimbo and don't think he deserves to be so hyped. him being the most recognizable just puts a target on his back.
Posted By: buddha (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 12:36 AM"
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At that point, he wasn't talking about Kimbo's housemates, but the general public at large... where many do still believe Kimbo is the greatest.
Posted By: cyks (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 01:19 AM
I can see why Rashad booked the Roy vs Kimbo fight...it's a win win for him. If Kimbo looses he's out, and that's bound to make Rampage pissed...but if Roy looses he's out and I feel after the last episode that the coaches really don't want him there. So, well played Rashad...
Posted By: Krajton (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 02:57 AM
"I not the type of guy that likes to break news. I prefer to sprain it."
Classic.
-Rampage will be back, I agree. It's only a matter of time and Dana sweetening the pot a bit. However, if we're discussing wrestling parallels, could Rampage be UFC's the Rock? He's already been in a couple of films (Midnight Meat Train was the smaller role but the better film - seek it out if you haven't seen it), and he's got the personality and charisma that the right role could keep him working steadily (a la the Scorpion King), although I can't see him doing Disney movies down the road.
-You've echoed the thoughts I've posted all over the place in comments in regards to Silva v Belfort/Henderson. At least if Belfort does manage a freak win, you know Henderson's taking the belt off of him in 2010. Hendo's chin is too good, and I think we've all seen what happens to Belfort once guys withstand that initial flurry (he's basically the original Sokoudjou).
-I also concur that if Kimbo's going to lose, it should be to Nelson, so that his mystique isn't completely shattered, although if Nelson knocks him out standing up, it's certainly going to be worse than if he submits Ferguson.
Posted By: Wyatt Beougher (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 08:08 AM
mma is indeed quite like pro wrestling - at least in that the popularity of the sport is based on the appeal of individual fighters/superstars far more than cold atheltic endeavour.
For example, Lyoto Machida had to gain star power (with his KO of Thiago Silva) to get his shot at the LHW title, while Brock Lesnar, who had star power but a meagre 2-1 pro record at the time walked into his heavyweight title shot.
It's not about the best vs. the best, it's about the most marketable fight, and a fighter will go further with a mediocre record and a good fan following (see Jardine,Couture, Griffin, Mir) than with a sterling record and fan apathy (Machida pre-2009, Fedor.)
Guys like Fedor, Anderson Silva etc. are not as big box office that their record, and reputation with the MMA cognoscenti might like to believe, and as such a fighter has to win in entertaining style, in front of the most fans possible and then be as compelling as possioble in interviews to get the best matches.
A two match win streak and popularity = a title shot, a ten match win streak and fan apathy = a co-main event at best.
Are you not entertained?
Posted By: chris.crowing (Registered) on September 28, 2009 at 10:17 AM
I'm favoring Belfort in the fight.
Silva may be the better overall striker, but I believe Beflort has better boxing and has become more patient now. It'll be a slow round or two at first, but Belfort will spring on the first opening and finish Anderson. I don't believe this is the 'old Vitor', I think its the -best- Vitor has been.
Posted By: Guest#8061 (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 12:18 PM
"A two match win streak and popularity = a title shot, a ten match win streak and fan apathy = a co-main event at best.
Are you not entertained?
Posted By: chris.crowing (Registered) on September 28, 2009 at 10:17 AM"
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Wow, people still bring that up? Brock was given his chance in the UFC because of his name. He was given the shot at the belt because the division was weak and there was barely anyone else available.
The only other option to fight Couture on his return was Werdum- who was content in facing who he thought was a can in dos Santos and getting his title shot soon after.
Lesnar manhandled Herring... who had just beaten Kongo (the only other person who could have been considered title-shot ready).
Brock was just in the right place at the right time when his division was weak while Lyoto's division is one of the strongest in the UFC and his UFC opponents hadn't been considered top level.
Posted By: cyks (Guest) on September 28, 2009 at 07:16 PM
