The Blueprint 10.22.09: Shogun vs. The Dragon

Posted by Patrick Mullin on 10.22.2009

UFC 104’s Main Event will see either the first successful defense of the light heavyweight title by Lyoto Machida, or the end of the “Machida Era” before it ever begins with a win by Shogun Rua. What does either man have to do to win? Look inside to find out.

Welcome back my loyal followers. This is of course 411's answer to the likes of Greg Jackson and Xtreme Couture…The Blueprint! If you need to find out how some of the top stars and hot prospects in MMA can be beaten, this is where you get the answers. As is custom however before we get to the subject this week, let's dig into the mailbag!

The Mailbag

From Scottyieottie (Guest): "Great article! But Cain Sucks If Kongo hit him and rocked someone like Brock or Carwin can easily ko him. I mean thats my two cent's. His chin seems suspect."

Cain sucks if Kongo hit him and rocked him? I got some news for you pal, Kongo generally rocks anybody he hits. He's still the only guy to have KO'ed Antoni Hardonk and is an educated striker to boot, not just a wreckless power hitter. I wouldn't call being hurt by the punches of Cheick Kongo a reason to call anyone's chin suspect. I haven't seen Brock's stand up power proven. He hurt Randy standing up and he's obviously a strong guy but we haven't really seen him take out a legit heavyweight with his stand up. Shane is obviously a devastating stand up hitter and I didn't think Cain really had a chance when their fight was originally announced, so I agree with you there.

From Tyler (Guest): "Wait did you just give an honest no b.s. assesment of a fighter that shwoed an ability to disect someones game with a good degree of accuracy? Citing legitimate referances to past fights and ignoring the smoke screen of marketing that UFC uses to influence newer fans? When did 441's MMA coverage decide to step up to the level of it's wrestling coverage? Great article man seriously and I'm glad I'm not the only one slightly baffled by the Cain hype... I mean yeah he's solid but the Clay Guida comparison was right on and it's not a easy to decision fight in the Heavyweight division.

Couple of questions I'd love to hear your take on.

Why do you feel Nog's offensive boxing so good by MMA standards(Solid angles, good footwork, actually using jabs and crosses) yet his defensive boxing seems nearly as bad as any Johnny Haymaker out there?

Secondly how long do you feel UFC can continue to promote a lightweight division based mainnly off fighters who were in large part unable to reach the proper level to crack the Japanese market when it was the only 155-160 game in town. Considering many of them have not shown improvement since they were fighting on the U.S. and Canadian independant circuit, and considering B.J. Penn IS without a doubt a true World Class Lightweight how long do you feel they can coast before having to sign some legit free agent talent at 155?

Again good article and 411 as a whole all joking aside way to step it up guys, your MMA stuff just keeps getting better."

Tyler thanks so much for the praise. We've all been working our tails off here at 411 to try and bring you guys the best MMA coverage we can, so it means a lot when you guys tell us we're doing a good job of it. As far as your questions go, here's my take.

1) Minotauro Nogueira is a really offensive minded fighter both standing up and on the ground. Now where it differs is that boxing offensively and defensively are two different things. Because Nog is primarily a BJJ style fighter, and that's a style where the best offense is a strong defense. In boxing if you're only concentrating on the offensive side of things your defense will be non-existant. Its not like BJJ where you can use a completely offensive or defensive strategy and still get the best of both worlds. This is something Nog doesn't understand, hence why when he's standing he's not using head movement and carries his hands relatively low making him an easy target.

2) I don't necessarily agree that the UFC's lightweights couldn't crack the Japanese market because of the talent level. I feel it has more to do with the payouts in America, specifically the UFC payouts, being better than the Japanese payouts as specified by guys like Rampage and Wand, both of whom were top stars in Japan but have made more money per fight with the UFC. Japan does have top flight lightweights like Aoki and Hansen, but 155 pounds is the deepest division in all of MMA and the UFC does have a lot of talented guys there. The division just doesn't seem as deep because of how good B.J. Penn is and the lack of guys who are able to challenge him competitively.

From Chris_UK (Guest): "I have no idea how you can make ANY assessments like this considering hes still working his way up. He hasnt fought any top heavyweights yet, and hes still relativly inexperienced. Whos to say in a year or so he won't be a completely different fighter?
He manhanded Kongo for 3 rounds. So what he didnt knock him out. He won the fight easily. An article like this shouldnt be written until hes had 2/3 TOP H/W guys, Rothwell and Kongo being good indicators for the future. Would I put him against Brock now? Maybe not, but if he walks through the H/W's en route to a match with the champ in a years time, I hope your all prepared to eat your words."

Its very simple, Cain is being promoted as a top heavyweight and thus in a no-BS column like mine he'll get treated as such. He fought a Cheick Kongo who was generally accepted as being a fight away from a title shot even if he's a one dimensional fighter, and then there came a lot of talk about Cain challenging for the title. Hell he was even put into a #1 contender's match against Shane Carwin until it was decided to pass him over and have Shane get the shot at Brock. As far as being inexperienced, well he already has more fights than the champion of the division!

A different fighter in a year or two? Maybe he can refine his striking, hopefully he can learn some BJJ, but he can't change that much. He's not going to develop power that can finish fights unless he starts juicing. That's never going to change no matter how many weights he lifts or kettle balls he works out with. He can't develop a better chin until MANY years from now due to the amount of work it takes. He won't be that much different of a fighter, especially if he stays with AKA.

At this stage I'm never taking him against Brock Lesnar because he's fighting a bigger and stronger version of himself and he just can't win that fight.

From Big Bill (Guest): "On what planet did Randy's punches hurt Brock? He cut him, but he never looked dazed to me. Maybe I need to go watch that fight AGAIN but I don't remember it. Yeah, the knee by Mir hurt him, but again, it hurt him so much that he took him down with it and finished him. I don't know what kind of chin he has, but it isn't bad. Maybe not great, but not bad."

Well it was the planet Earth, maybe you'd like to visit some time. It was a right hand to the temple out of the clinch that had Brock hurt, ironic considering that's also the punch Brock hit Randy with that spelled the end. The knee by Mir wasn't what hurt him, it was a short right hand inside that did it. Throwing the knee was just a stupid move by Mir because when a wrestler is dazed, the instinct is to grab a desperation double or single leg and get top position to buy some time. Mir did Brock a favor throwing the knee. If Randy can hurt him, any heavyweight can hurt him.
Well lets get started with our match up this week. The main event of UFC 104 is a 205 pound showdown between reigning champion Lyoto Machida, and former #1 light heavyweight in the world Mauricio Rua. What we're doing this week is showcasing what each guy has to do in order to emerge victorious.



Mauricio "Shogun" Rua's Keys to Victory


1) Be Patient - Lyoto Machida is never more dangerous then when you get too aggressive and try to take him out. You leave too many openings and he can see them all. This is the biggest thing that Shogun has to be careful about. He's the definition of a classic Chute Boxe fighter where the style is to attack, attack, and then when you're done with the second attack you attack some more.

Shogun is a powerful striker. He hits hard enough to either put you down or make you quit. As long as he can wait on his strikes and not go balls out as is his custom he can win the striking battle. But to do that he has to take a page out of Machida's own book and look for the openings Lyoto leaves. One of the easiest ones to spot is that Lyoto tends to hold his chin up in the air when he paws with his lead right hand. A quick right cross down the pipe or a push kick to the chin could be huge weapons for Shogun to work with.

2) Fight Dirty - Don't misunderstand what I'm trying to say here. I don't mean that Shogun should resort to dirty boxing or out muscling Machida on the inside. I mean he should fight dirty and use illegal tactics that he'd be able to get away with. When they are pressed up against the cage in a clinch, use a low blow or two and stand in front of the referee to hide it from him. Use your head as a weapon by keeping it pressed into Machida's nose and the side of his jaw to bother him and break his concentration.

For all those who are going to piss and moan about me advocating the use of illegal tactics, go cry somewhere else. First and foremost, this is a fight and shit happens. You can fight dirty and not get disqualified. It also will have an adverse affect on the competition one way or another. Either he's going to anger Machida to the point where Lyoto starts to abandon his own game plan and get over aggressive and fight Shogun's fight, or he's going to demoralize Machida and break his will.

3) Get Past the "Pillow Punches" - I called Machida out on this tactic in my very first Blueprint here on 411. One of Machida's favorite tactics is to throw punches with nothing on them at his opponent to lure them into a false sense of security. They wind up believing his punches can't hurt them, let alone KO them, so they open up and that's when he throws power shots and turns their lights out. This has worked on just about everyone he's fought, the most recent examples being Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva.

The good thing about this for Machida's opponents is that this pattern is predictable. He always paws with his right hand and sticks out a left or two before throwing a heavy shot. He never throws just one pillow punch, he throws a combination of them. Once you feel that these are the punches coming, the best thing to do is to throw straight and hard shots down the middle, the best strike to use being a straight right hand because Machida is a southpaw and he's in line for it. Shogun can use his leg kicks on the outside to test Machida, but needs to stray from using them when Machida is in punching range because it makes you easy pray for a knockdown from a power shot.

Shogun's Perfect Strategy - Shogun has to earn Machida's respect early. If he allows Lyoto to dart in and dart out without paying a price he'll be in trouble. He'll have to take the role of aggressor but he doesn't have to work non-stop. He's going to have to cut off the octagon and get Machida to the fence two or three times just to lean on him and throw those low blows, then back out and force Machida to have to come to him where he can keep him outside with a leg kick or two, and then time his rushes with straight right hands while stepping to his own left to avoid Machida's left hand. If he can build an early points lead with this strategy, he'll force Lyoto into unfamiliar territory having to look for a stoppage and could catch him coming in with a big flurry to earn a stoppage.


Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida's Keys to Victory

Control the Pace - Lyoto has won the majority of his fights via decision, so his cardio isn't anything to worry about on his end. Shogun however is the polar opposite. He's buzz sawed his way through 15 of his 18 victims with knockouts. In his first two UFC bouts however is cardio looked absolutely awful. After going a round with Forrest Griffin, Shogun was sucking so much wind that the first three rows of fans passed out due to oxygen deprivation. He gassed out against a 45 year old Mark Coleman and only finished him because Coleman himself gassed out.

Lyoto has a definitive edge in cardio vascular conditioning. If he decides to cut a fast pace for this fight, which is scheduled for five rounds, there may not be a chance Shogun can keep up with him. Shogun has never shown a great gas tank, even in his victories as most of them have come within five minutes. As good as people thought he looked against Chuck Liddell that fight was hardly indicative of where his cardio stands. Lyoto should immediately keep Shogun moving and land body shots when he can. Sooner or later he can have Shogun looking for the Shell answer.

2) Champion's Prerogative - Champion's Prerogative is simply the idea that in order to become champion you have to go after the champion and beat him. This is a mentality Lyoto has fought with his whole career. He's the guy with the belt, so the challenger is going to have to bring the fight to him. It may not be the most exciting fight in the world as a result(see Silva vs. Leites…actually don't), but I'll never jump on a guy for fighting a smart fight regardless of the excitement factor.

The only "repercussion" of fighting like that is Dana White getting pissed off and matching you up with a guy who's going to go right after you. That's right up Machida's alley so go for it Dana. Just like his Black House teammate Anderson Silva he'll rise to the occasion.

3) Outmuscle Him on the Inside - One of the most deceptive things about Lyoto Machida is how strong he is and how much he's mastered the art of leverage. Shogun is not a big light heavyweight, while Lyoto has fought as high as 220 pounds. Shogun is not used to being out muscled in the clinch but Machida can do it to him. Once you do that to a Muay Thai master like Rua not only have you scored points and potentially hurt him, but you've also gotten into his head. The art of fighting is more a mental game than a physical one, and when you win the mental game its arguable that you've already won the fight.

Machida's Perfect Strategy - This is a much easier fight for Machida to win than for Shogun. Machida needs to start off with a fast pace of his get-in and get-out strategy that has worked so well for him. The more Shogun tries to keep up the more he'll fall behind early. Once he starts breathing heavy and moving a little slower Machida can pot shot him and either decide to win on points or land the kill shot on him for a victory.

Final Prediction

Well needless to say Shogun needs to fight a perfect fight in order to win, and he's never shown the capacity to do it. Machida has shown how adept he is to fight aggressive strikers and counter their efforts to KO them. The main story of this fight to me is that where Shogun is weak Machida is overly strong and where Shogun is strong he's playing right into Machida's hands. Unless Shogun is a different guy than we all think, I have to say a KO victory for Machida in round three seems like the most likely result here. I'm instilling Shogun as a 5:1 underdog.