Blood On The Mat 10.08.09: The Light Heavyweight Landscape

Posted by  on 10.08.2009

This week 411’s Adam Tool looks at one of the UFC’s deepest divisions, as he takes stock of the fighters that call light heavyweight their home. Can anyone beat Machida? Who stands to gain from Rampage’s retirement? Which young fighters have the chance to make an impact? All this and more in this week’s Blood On The Mat!

Welcome back to Blood On The Mat. I'm Adam Tool and I apologize for missing last week. I must not have broken your heart too much as I see you've already come crawling back.


Two weeks ago while writing my column about the retirement of "Rampage" Jackson I touched on the fact that this situation opens a lot of new doors within the UFC light heavyweight division, but after some more thought on the subject I felt like it deserved a bit more attention. This week I'll be examining the 205 lbs. weight class from top to bottom, looking at the current landscape and where it might be in the near future.

And yes, as of this writing "Rampage" is still retired. If/when he returns to the UFC we'll be able to put that word in quotations, but not before.

The Best


Message to all fighters: Please stop making the fist pose when taking pictures with women.

Let's start with the man at the very top, shall we? With a few weeks to go before his first defense of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, Lyoto Machida is undoubtedly training hard and ingesting questionable liquids so that he can perform at his very best. You can make fun of his choice of beverages all you want, but it's hard to deny that the man is one of the most impressive fighters in the world today.

Nevermind the fact that he still hasn't lost a fight, he's never even lost a round in the UFC. You've seen the names on his win column, but consider also that Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin, Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans all got their first career losses at the hands of Machida.

His style has yet to be figured out by anyone in the cage with him, and now the task falls to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua to try his hand. "Shogun" may not be the most deserving contender, but he's the one we've got and it's still an exciting match-up. Rua will be in for a short night if he tries to play it aggressive (just ask Thiago Silva how well that worked out), but we'll have to wait until UFC 104 to see exactly what his strategy will be.

If Machida retains the belt, what happens next? "Rampage" had already been named the next #1 contender (pending a win over Rashad Evans), but now he's gone and there's really nobody ready to take his place at the moment. Machida already has wins over five of the current members of the LHW roster, and another dominant performance on the 24th will raise more questions about possibility of anyone beating him. Could the UFC be on the verge of having each division ruled by an unstoppable champion?

The Rest Of The Top 10


Of course I know where I am! You're Bill Gates, right?

Rashad Evans was the most recent victim of MACHIDA KARATE and even more recently he was screwed right over by the retirement of "Rampage." He's rumored to face Thiago Silva at UFC 108, and with Jackson out of the picture I think it's likely that Evans will get his next title shot sooner than later. That is, of course, if he can get past Silva first.

Speaking of Thiago Silva, he also had his 2009 wrecked by Machida. He's already rebounded nicely with a thorough trouncing of Keith Jardine, but he'll have a tougher time getting a second crack at "The Dragon" considering how utterly outclassed he was in their UFC 94 meeting. A win over the former champ Evans would certainly do him some good, and if he was able to continue beating top competition he'd have to get a title shot at some point down the road.


Why don‘t you folks have a look around, and don‘t forget about our sale on T-shirts

Twelve months ago Forrest Griffin was the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but the loss to Evans knocked him right back down the ladder. Then, Anderson Silva came along and kicked the ladder right out from under Forrest. He's started making some noise again recently so it's possible he could be back in the cage before long. If he wants to be taken seriously again then he must score a win no matter the opponent. He probably won't be looking to earn a title shot anytime soon, as he's already stated that he wants nothing to do with Machida. That's probably a smart move.

UFC 106 will feature at least one light heavyweight bout that could have serious title implications in the coming year. Luiz Cane has been surging since joining the UFC a few years ago, but he'll be taking a big step up in competition when he faces Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The casual MMA fan might wonder why Nogueira is fighting again so soon after beating Randy Couture, but for the rest of us this is one big bout between battling Brazilians.


I‘m pretty sure this is Lil Nog

Speaking of Nogueira, he could face a problem that's come up more and more frequently lately: teammates that refuse to fight one another. The Nogueira brothers run Black House, which is the training center Lyoto Machida calls home. If "Minotouro" is successful in his UFC run, can he put aside his friendship for a shot at gold?

Bubbling under the top ten we have a few veteran fighters that are on downward slopes at the moment, starting with former middleweight champ Rich Franklin. "Ace" went 1-2 this past year, although two of those fights were catchweight bouts. He'll need to start competing regularly in the light heavyweight division if he's ever going to get any traction there.


Y‘know they actually wanted me for Dancing With The Stars, until I reminded them that I‘m not the Techno Viking

It's been an even worse year for Keith Jardine, starting out with a tough decision loss against "Rampage" in the main event at UFC 96. He then followed that up by getting KTFO by Thiago Silva, knocking him out of most top ten rankings. Inconsistency is Jardine's middle name, but how long can he continue in the UFC if he doesn't win soon?

If we're talking about downward slopes, there's none worse than Chuck Liddell. He's not even a top 15 fighter anymore after going 1-4 in his last five fights. Dana White is still trying to force him to retire. And of course, there's this…



The New Faces

The 205 lbs. weight class is also home to several fighters who have achieved some decent notoriety even though they have yet to break through to the upper levels of the division.

The fighter with the biggest opportunity at the moment is undoubtedly Brandon Vera. He may be 3-1 since dropping down from heavyweight, but three of those fights did very little to excite fans. His main event spot against Randy Couture affords "The Truth" an opportunity to instantly reclaim the hype that was so firmly behind him during his first year with the company. The list of possible contenders is fairly short at the moment, but a win over the former champion would increase Vera's stock very quickly.


Not my eye! The doctor said not to get knee in it!

If there's one young fighter in the UFC light heavyweight roster to watch out for, it's Jon "Bones" Jones. He turned plenty of heads at UFC 94 with his flashy offense used to dismantle Stephan Bonnar. He then displayed a modified guillotine choke to take out Jake O'Brien at UFC 100. He's 9-0 and is only going to get better now that he's training full-time with Greg Jackson. When Machida captured the belt at UFC 98, several analysts pegged Jones as the man that could someday slay "The Dragon."

Before Jones can get anywhere near a title shot, he'll have to get past the very tough Matt Hamill. The two will meet in the co-main event of the live Ultimate Fighter Finale in December. Both fighters have amateur wrestling backgrounds but it's Hamill that's got the stronger pedigree. While UFC fans are very familiar with him, it's important to remember that Hamill is still very new to the fight game. His striking has improved dramatically in his last two performances, making this fight very tough to call.

If the title of "Ultimate Fighter" still means something, then Ryan Bader is already at least one step ahead of several other fighters. On top of that, he's the most highly-decorated amateur wrestler within the division. He's still undefeated after picking up his ninth win over Carmelo Marrero earlier this year. Currently he's recuperating from an injury sustained in that bout, but I expect we'll see big things from "Darth" Bader in the years to come.

The Returning Veterans


Who wants to be the next Mrs. Couture? Gina? Bar sluts?

While Brandon Vera may have a golden opportunity at UFC 105, he'll first need to figure out a way to beat the legendary Randy Couture. After going 0-2 in the heavyweight ranks since his latest return, Couture now makes the logical move back down to light heavyweight. With his credentials he won't need too many wins before being granted a title shot, and I for one would love to see "The Natural" face off with Machida before he settles into a more permanent retirement.

If Couture is the blueprint for staying competitive in your forties, then Mark Coleman is undoubtedly trying to follow in his footsteps. Coleman's comeback started off with a pitiful performance against "Shogun," but he was able to bounce back at UFC 100 with a hard-fought win over Stephan Bonnar. He was slated to be a part of the co-main event at UFC 106, but an injury has forced him out of a high-profile fight for the second time since his return.


Coming this fall on NBC: The Fighter, The Fucker, and The Flounder

Coleman had been scheduled to face the former longtime light heavyweight champ, Tito Ortiz. "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" has been out of action since his decision loss to Machida way back at UFC 84, so there are obviously questions about how well he'll do following the long layoff. He'll bring in the crowds for his return to the octagon, but can he still perform at the level he did when he was the man to beat?

The Wildcards
Here we have the fighters that aren't full-fledged members of the light heavyweight division, but they very well could be.


What a coincidence! Me too!

If his good friend Machida wasn't the top dog, isn't it reasonable to think that Anderson Silva would already be making a run at becoming a double-champion? At the moment he's simply a dangerous threat to anyone that accepts a fight with him, regardless of the weight class.

Dan Henderson is currently awaiting his next fight, as he's likely to be squaring off with Nate Marquardt to see who gets a rematch with Silva for the middleweight belt. Should he be unsuccessful in his second attempt, it's likely that Henderson will return to the light heavyweight division where he's already had plenty of success. Let's not forget that Hendo's last fight at 205 was the win over Franklin at UFC 93, and before that he took "Rampage" to the distance in his first UFC title fight.


I think you‘re taking this "inner me" thing a bit too far

Now that he's proven himself as a ratings draw, it's all but certain that Kimbo Slice will have a home in the octagon for a while. He's already made it clear that he has no problem moving down in weight, which probably isn't a bad idea given the current heavyweight landscape. Whether he gets better or not, there's no shortage of marquee match-ups Slice could take at 205 lbs. There's already talk of bout with Houston Alexander, in what would be an intriguing battle of imposing black men with big power and no ground game.

The Missing Pieces Of The Puzzle


Gegard was unaware that he had to phrase his answer in the form of a question

There's one fighter currently ranked in the top ten of the division who is not in the UFC. Gegard Mousasi got plenty of attention last year with his run through the DREAM Middleweight GP, and since moving up to light heavyweight he's already captured the Strikeforce title with a win over "Babalu" Sobral. Mousasi has made statements to indicate that he's looking towards the UFC someday, but he's in no hurry to get there.

There's another fighter making waves in the weight class outside of the UFC, and that's Muhammed "King Mo" Luwal. He's got an outstanding background in amateur wrestling and he's 5-0 since turning to MMA. While he's currently a free agent, it's not likely that we'll see him in the UFC anytime soon. Luwal has already signed on for the new MMA game from EA, meaning he is officially on Dana White's shit list. It's unfortunate that the UFC is letting such a bright prospect go to the competition because of some trivial vendetta.

The future of the UFC's light heavyweight division will take one of two paths following the 24th of this month. Either Lyoto Machida becomes the first LHW champ since "Rampage" Jackson to successfully defend his title, or "Shogun" Rua becomes the first man to defeat the unbeatable "Dragon." Should the champion retain then he moves one step closer to cleaning out his division, ensuring his place as one of the greatest fighters in world. If Rua can pull off the upset, he would finally prove that he has returned to the form that placed him atop so many 205 rankings during his reign of terror in PRIDE.


Who let that transient into the weigh-ins? Oh, wait…

Personally I believe we'll see Machida leave with the belt, as he delivers another highlight reel performance to seal his place as the Fighter of the Year for 2009. I don't know where we go from there, but I'll certainly be watching to find out.

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