The Rear Naked Column 10.14.09: Can Shogun Fulfill His Destiny?

Posted by Samer Kadi on 10.14.2009

In ten days, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua enters the Octagon for the biggest fight of his career as he faces Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida for the UFC light heavyweight title. Can Shogun overcome the odds and capture the title, or will Machida be too much?

While UFC 104's undercard leaves a lot to be desired, the main event more than makes up for it, making this a must-see PPV.

Battling for arguably the biggest prize in the sport, champion Lyoto Machida squares off against challenger Mauricio Rua for the UFC light heavyweight title. Machida captured the title with a jaw dropping performance, knocking out then undefeated champion "Sugar" Rashad Evans in the second round. The sheer brilliance of Machida's display prompted commentator Joe Rogan to declare the "Machida Era" upon us.

But can Rua put an end to the Machida era before it ever gets a chance to begin? Machida will come in as the rightful overwhelming favorite, but Rua's talents alone give him more than just a puncher's chance to slay The Dragon.

In April of 2005, a 23 year old Rua forced the MMA world to take notice as he laid a beating on Quinton "Rampage" Jackson – long considered one of the top light heavyweights in the world – in the opening round of the PRIDE middleweight Grand Prix. Shogun exhibited his striking prowess with an ultra violent showing as he broke Rampage down with a savage use of the Muay Thai Clinch.



Rua would then put any doubts to rest as he went on to topple Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in one of PRIDE's most memorable battles, before first round stoppages of Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona catapulting him into the top of the light heavyweight rankings.

At such a young age, the win was thought to be nothing but the beginning for Rua. Many saw in him the next "Axe Murderer", as Shogun's rise accompanied the commencement of Silva's decline. And despite being labeled as Silva's successor by Wanderlei himself, Shogun had shown in his young career more versatility and well roundedness than his mentor and Chute Boxe teammate ever did.

By that point, not only was Shogun considered the uncrowned champion in PRIDE, he was also thought of as the man to dominate the light heavyweight scene for years to come, carrying Wandelrei's torch into further success.

With a blend of high-paced striking and frenetic mat work, Shogun was rapidly becoming one of the world's most exciting fighters.



Unfortunately, his momentum would take a massive hit in a freak accident against Mark Coleman, as Shogun would dislocate his elbow after being taken down by "The Hammer". The injury sidelined Rua for the majority of the year, before a successful comeback against French kickboxer Cyrille Diabate placed the Brazilian right back on track. Three more wins spring-boarded Shogun back to the top of the rankings.

After the dissolution of PRIDE, Rua made the logical move and signed with the UFC. For both fans and pundits, the image of Dana White wrapping the light heavyweight belt around Shogun's waist was an inevitable matter of time. Then, in one of the biggest upsets of 2007, Shogun would get submitted in his UFC debut by heavy underdog Forrest Griffin. Two major injuries later, and the Brazilian would find himself in an uphill battle for relevancy.

Shogun finally made his return to the Octagon earlier this year, avenging his loss to Mark Coleman, though not after putting on one of the hapless performances of his career. However, he would answer the critics three months later with a first round knockout of former longtime light heavyweight champion, Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell.

With Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans tied up for season 10 of "The Ultimate Fighter", Shogun was presented with a golden opportunity to fulfill his destiny and become the champion most experts predicted he would become.

For Shogun to be successful against Machida, he needs to fight the fight of his life. Rua has certainly vanquished some of the biggest names in the sport, and his 2005 Grand Prix run remains one of the most impressive feats in MMA history. But figuring out the answer to Machida's style is a different issue. Many have tried, and all have come up short. Till now, Machida Karate remains an unsolved mystery.

If Shogun's reckless aggression gets the better of him, he will be sharing a similar fate to Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva. Machida feasts on his opponent's aggression and is always one step ahead. His fight with Rashad Evans was as puzzling as it was stunning: Evans, a notoriously patient fighter with extremely fast hands, was literally beaten to the punch. Machida was able to tag him before Evans ever got the chance to throw. Rashad found himself on the canvas the moment he decided to engage. Machida's ability to see punches coming as well as the accuracy of his counters are factors Shogun needs to be wary of.

One of the most underrated aspects of Rua's game is his takedown ability. A little known fact is that Shogun has been able to takedown every opponent he's ever faced. From Quinton Jackson to Mark Coleman to Chuck Liddell, Shogun was successful in putting them all on their backs. Despite not possessing the best wrestling in the business, Shogun knows how to utilize his strikes to set up takedowns. In my opinion, if Shogun is going to find success against The Dragon, he needs to put him on his back.

We don't know how Machida would react when put on his back. With Shogun's ground game and guard passing ability, he will be best served to take it to the ground. However, his usual method of closing in the distance with some strikes to prepare for the takedown is very risky against Machida, as he's the type of fighter who loves to be pressed. Shooting from distance could prove very effective if set up correctly, as it would test Machida's sprawl (which we've seen little of) without getting in his striking range.

The most interesting part of the fight might take place in the clinch. Both fighters are extremely comfortable working in short distance from the clinch. Machida takes his opponent off guard by utilizing some karate sweeps, which he used in the fight ending sequence against Thiago Silva. With that said, Shogun's Muay Thai is far above that of Thiago, and if he manages to grab a hold of Machida's neck, the Dragon's reign could come to an end.

Like Anderson Silva (well, not QUITE like him), Shogun loves to work the body from the clinch, before switching off to headhunting mode. He broke Rampage's rib with a well placed knee, which essentially sealed the outcome of the fight.

The Chuck Liddell fight was a tremendous display of Shogun's versatility. He employed controlled aggression for the most part: He was patient when he needed to and countered effectively, he went for a takedown when the opportunity presented itself – ducking under an overhand right for Liddell and forcing it to the mat – and showed some fantastic transitions and fighting IQ, immediately dropping for a leg lock.





He handled the pressure well (he could have been cut with a loss), showed great maturity, game planning, and execution.



With that said, Chuck's style is far more predictable than Machida's, not to mention he's nowhere nearly as fast, especially at this stage of his career. Shogun needs to have different gameplans, and alternate between them to keep Machida guessing. More importantly, he needs to make the necessary adjustments when needed to, something Rashad Evans wasn't able to do, and paid a heavy price for it. Rua can't allow himself to get frustrated. Lyoto will certainly be slipping in and out and landing the occasional punch. But unless Shogun over-commits, he should be able to feel him out and try to get his rhythm going. And even when he gets tagged, Shogun's chin has long been considered one of the most solid in the division and can take punches from the best of them.

I'm eagerly awaiting this contest, and I'll be rooting for Shogun without a doubt. But I don't have high hopes for this one. Machida is on another level at the moment, and he seems to be a bad match up for everyone. If Shogun gets it to the ground, he stands more than a decent chance. But striking wise, Machida is just too fast and too technical

Tune in next week as we take a look at the champion and one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Feedback is always appreciated. Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below. What do you think, will Shogun fulfill his destiny and have the gold wrapped around his waist?