Cardio Freak MMA News Report 10.19.09: First Defense

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 10.19.2009

This week in Cardio Freak: A preview of UFC 104 featuring thoughts and predictions on all the main card fights. Plus thoughts on Silva/Akiyama, Santos/Gonzaga, Houston/Kimbo, and Henderson possibly to Strikeforce. It's more accurate that Lyoto Machida, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Headline News



UFC returns to California this weekend for the first time UFC 76. Ironically, the two fighters in this weekends main event were part of UFC 76 although they yielded different results. Lyoto Machida defeated Kazuhiro Nakamura on that show in a rather lackluster decision while Mauricio Rua made his UFC debut, losing to Forrest Griffin. Two years later, Machida is the UFC Light Heavyweight champion and Rua is the man gunning for the title.

Lyoto Machida is arguably the most dominating fighter in UFC history. In seven UFC bouts, Machida has not only ever lost a fight but he's never lost a round. He's 17-0 in UFC rounds, which is the most impressive Machida stat in my eyes. He's the least hit fighter in the UFC and his striking is among the most accurate in the UFC. Simply put: he hits you and you can't hit him.

Many people are writing off "Shogun" Rua in this fight because of his less than impressive UFC career. He lost his UFC debut to Forrest Griffin but I'm willing to give him a pass on that fight because Griffin is no slouch (unless your name is Anderson Silva) and it was Rua's first fight under new circumstances while it was Griffin's 8th UFC appearance, not counting his TUF fights. Rua defeated Mark Coleman in his next bout but came under heavy criticism because he wasn't as impressive as he should have been. Again, I'm willing to give him a pass because he was coming off a 16 month lay off and multiple knee surgeries. The fight against Chuck Liddell was the first true UFC look at Rua because he was out of excuses coming into that fight. In that fight Rua delivered easily his best UFC performance by knocking out Liddell late in the 1st round. You can say that Rua beat a past his prime Liddell – and you'd probably be right because we all know that a prime Liddell takes that left straight from Rua and doesn't bother to blink – but that would be discrediting Rua who turned in a good all around performance in that fight.

Unfortunately for Rua, this is a bad style match up for him. Really any striker is a bad match up for Machida because his striking is leagues above almost everyone and although Rua is relatively well rounded, he's primarily a striker. Worse for Rua, he's an aggressive striker who isn't afraid to take a risk on his feet. Machida is a master at waiting for an opponent to make a mistake and taking advantage of that mistake. It's important for Rua not to get over-aggressive because then he's playing into Machida's hands. If he can find a balance between patience and aggressiveness then maybe he can be the man that dethrones Machida. One thing that Rua did well in the Liddell fight was throw a leg kick, get out, and cover up. We could see a lot of leg kicks from Rua in this fight but he has to be quick with them, he has to move away and cover once he throws, and he has to mix up his timing. If he can consistently land leg kicks, he'll take away the speed of Machida.

Machida just has to fight his fight. Rua is most likely going to come after him so it's up to him to get the timing down and counter. Machida springs forward with his strikes and then quickly gets out after he throws. He likes to a throw a body kick or knee followed by the left straight that almost always lands. Rua has a tendency to get caught by the left hand of fighters, which is great for Machida as he stands southpaw and his power is in his left hand.

Being a muy-thai fighter, Rua needs to try and close the distance against Machida. He's not going to win the striking battle so he needs to try and get inside and throw a lot of knees. That's a lot easier said than done but it can be done. Tito Ortiz had moderate success against Machida in the clinch and a ballooned up BJ Penn did well in the clinch against Machida.

Rua is better on the ground but this fight isn't likely getting there unless someone is dropped. I can't see Machida going for a takedown because Rua is good off his back and there's just no reason for Machida to want to be on the ground and while Rua might try for a takedown, his wrestling isn't good enough to put Machida on his back. If Machida does drop Rua though and the fight hits the ground that way, that might be a blessing for Rua. As accurate as Machida's striking is on his feet, he has a tendency to get sloppy with his ground and pound. If Rua has hit wits about him and is able to control Machida then maybe he pulls off a slick submission like we saw Ortiz do at UFC 84.



Cain Velasquez and Ben Rothwell meet in a Heavyweight showdown with title implications.

There's a lot of criticism of Cain Velasquez right now and while it's understandable, I don't think it's justified. Cain entered the UFC with a lot of hype and in his first two fights, he lived up to that hype. In his third fight against Denis Stojnic he had an impressive performance but an anticlimactic finish. And then n his fourth fight against Cheick Kongo he dominated the Heavyweight striker for the better part of 15 minutes and yet people continue to doubt him.

Ben Rothwell is making his UFC debut after being acquired when UFC basically purchased Affliction. Rothwell is a big guy who is well rounded but mainly likes to strike.

In the Cheick Kongo fight, every time Cain stood with Kongo he ended up rocked. Ben Rothwell doesn't have the technical striking that Kongo does but he certainly has the power. Cain is a good striker but it just seems like the AKA fighters don't have great striking defense. People question Cain's chin but if he didn't have a chin, he would have been KO'd by those Kongo punches. Instead he was merely stumbled, quickly recovered, and then dominated the rest of the round. Technically speaking, Cain is probably the better striker of the two. He does a good job mixing up his strikes and unlike Rothwell, he won't be afraid to throws kicks and knees because he shouldn't fear a Rothwell takedown.

Rothwell's biggest weaknesses are Cain's biggest strength. Cain has great wrestling with a strong top base and unbelievable cardio. He's a cardio freak, if you will. Rothwell doesn't have a wrestling background and is cardio isn't great. Cain shouldn't have much of a problem putting Rothwell on his back if he so desires. Rothwell doesn't offer much off his back and it would really be a shock to see him catch Cain with a triangle or armbar. On top, Cain has unbelievable top control and positioning. He doesn't seem to hit very hard (if he did, he probably would have killed Kongo) but he wears you out with his ground striking and pace.

One thing to worry about with Cain is his mindset coming into this fight. I'm sure he hears the criticism from fans and media but he can't let that bother him. He needs to stick to his gameplan (which should be putting Rothwell on his back) and not get caught up in a striking contest with Rothwell. Play to your strengths, don't prove your weakness.



Josh Neer returns to the Octagon just two months after dropping a decision to Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 101. Of course Pellegrino did nothing but hold him down in that fight so it's not like he suffered much damage. His opponent is Gleison Tibau who is coming off a split decision loss to Melvin Guillard in a fight he should have won.

I expect this fight to go a lot like Pellegrino vs. Neer. Josh Neer's primary weakness is wrestling and although he's very active on the bottom and has good submissions, Tibau has a black belt in jiu-jitsu and is very strong on top. If Neer can keep the fight standing then he has a good chance at winning the decision or possibly knocking out Tibau because he has the advantage on the feet but I doubt Tibau even bothers with the striking game. Josh Neer is going to try his hardest to make a fight out of this thing but Tibau is likely going to be too big for Neer to really do anything with.



Spencer Fisher and Joe Stevenson battle it out in a Lightweight bout that could either be fight of the night or extremely boring.

Both guys are good strikers although I give the advantage to Fisher because his striking is more diverse while Stevenson sticks to mainly boxing. Stevenson's big advantage in this fight is his wrestling, which isn't great but when you factor in Fisher's usual lack of takedown defense then it's outstanding. Fisher did a good job avoiding the takedown against Caol Uno at UFC 99 but he was also very leary of the takedown, as evidence by the fact that he never let his hands go. If Fisher fights the same patient fight that he fought against Uno then it's going to cost him because unlike Uno, Stevenson won't be afraid to trade with Fisher on the feet in order to set up the takedowns. On the ground Stevenson has the advantage but Fisher is no slouch. Neither man is likely to catch the other with anything off their back but if that were to happen, I'd say Fisher has the better chance of doing so. Of course with Stevenson you always have to be weary of his guillotine choke because he slaps that thing on out of nowhere and has a very tight squeeze.



Anthony Johnson returns to UFC PPV and oddly enough the last time he was on PPV was UFC 76. He'll be taking on Yoshiyuki Yoshida who is coming off a win at UFC 98 against Brandon Wolff.

This is a great style match up for Johnson. He's the type of athlete that is only matched by Georges St. Pierre and his striking is explosive and powerful. On top of that, he's a very good wrestler so most of the time he can control where the fight goes. Yoshida is a world class judoka, which I always feels gives him an advantage because it's tough to find training partners who have developed their judo for MMA like guys like Yoshida. Unfortunately it's probably going to be tough for Yoshida to get inside on Johnson because of an eight inch reach advantage and even if he does get inside, Johnson is huge for Welterweight so it's going to be tough to throw him around.



Official Predictions:

*Lyoto Machida to defeat Mauricio "Shogun" Rua by TKO in Round Three
*Cain Velasquez to defeat Ben Rothwell by Decision
*Gleison Tibau to defeat Josh Neer by Decision
*Joe Stevenson to defeat Spencer Fisher by Decision
*Anthony Johnson to defeat Yoshiyuki Yoshida by TKO in Round Two

Major UFC/WEC News



On October 13 5OZofPain reported that Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander is possible for UFC 107 on December 12.

I sort of like the fight. I don't like the promotion of it.

I think it's stupid to float any Kimbo Slice fight right now considering we're still in the middle of The Ultimate Fighter 10 and every week the preview for next week is, "SOMEONE GETS HURT AND KIMBO COULD BE BACK!" It's like the boy who cried wolf with next weeks Ultimate Fighter preview. One of these shows Kimbo could return and no one will care because they've been promoting his possible return for weeks now. I also think it's stupid to put Kimbo Slice on PPV. I understand he's the biggest draw in TUF history but the fact remains, he's an Ultimate Fighter who lost in the first round. What kind of message does it send when the rest of the guys on TUF have to fight fellow TUF fighters on the Spike finale while Kimbo gets to fight a well known fighter on PPV? It's pretty clear based on the show and interviews that Kimbo is getting special treatment but they have to draw the line somewhere. Kimbo should fight on the Spike finale against someone in the house like everyone else.

All that said, I think it's a good fight for Kimbo. Obviously he and Houston Alexander are pretty much the same fighter as they both have explosive KO power but pretty much no ground game. The whole fight will be whoever lands the first big punch will likely win the fight as neither seems to have a great chin. The problem I have with the fight is that if Kimbo loses, it really doesn't do anything for Houston. Kimbo should be fighting good fighters who have a chance to make a dent in the division. Houston Alexander isn't going to be the UFC Light Heavyweight champion ever. So if he beats Kimbo and then goes on to lose to say, Stephan Bonnar (another fighter not close to the title picture), then it makes Kimbo look even worse. I'm not saying UFC should protect Kimbo by feeding him cans. In fact I'm saying the opposite. They should protect Kimbo by giving him tough fights so if he wins people say, "Wow. I didn't think Kimbo was very good but he just beat Forrest Griffin" and if he loses then people can say, "Kimbo is still a good fighter but "Shogun" Rua is the former best Light Heavyweight in the world so there's no shame in losing to him" or "Kimbo is still a good fighter but Jon Jones was just younger and faster." UFC usually does a good job of doing this (ex. Chuck Liddell) but this fight only benefits all parties if Kimbo wins and there's a very real chance that Kimbo could lose.



On October 12 Fighters.com reported that Junior dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga are likely to square off at UFC 108 on January 2nd.

I'd like to think that my tirade the other week on the stupidity of booking Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Gabriel Gonzaga had something to do with UFC changing plans and instead booking Gonzaga vs. Junior dos Santos but if I'm being honest, I know that UFC never truly considered booking Nogueira vs. Gonzaga because Joe Silva is smarter than that.

How do I know Silva is smarter than that? Because he's booking dos Santos vs. Gonzaga, which is an excellent fight that will tell us where both men are in the division. Gabriel Gonzaga has almost turned into the gatekeeper of the Heavyweight division because he'll beat anyone who is mediocre at best but he hasn't beaten a top 10 Heavyweight since his KO of Mirko "Cro Cop" and that win looks less impressive every time "Cro Cop" competes though that's unfair to Gonzaga because at the time it was a huge win and you could argue that Gonzaga's kick screwed up Mirko for good. Gonzaga will be dos Santos' toughest test because of his KO power and excellent jiu-jitsu. Junior dos Santos has better boxing and he can probably hang with Gonzaga on the ground despite being two belt levels lower than him simply because Gonzaga's MMA jiu-jitsu might be overrated and I tend to favor any fighter coming out of Nogueira's camp on the ground.

Another benefit of training with Nogueira is that you know dos Santos is likely mentally strong. He proved in the "Cro Cop" fight that he can go past the one minute mark and even get stronger as the fight goes along plus he made "Cro Cop" quit in that fight. I still question Gonzaga's mental toughness because when things don't go his way early, he just shuts down if you continue to press him.


On October 13 Yoshihiro Akiyama stated that he would be facing Wanderlei Silva sometime in February 2010.

This fight is pretty much a must win for Wanderlei Silva. I know he's a very popular and exciting fighter but that doesn't erase that fact that he's 1-3 in his second UFC stint, 1-5 in his last six fights, and a loss to Akiyama would be another three fight losing streak for him. I don't think he's in any danger of getting cut, especially if he has another exciting fight, but if he takes another brutal KO then it could be the end of the line for "The Axe Murderer."

This will be Silva's first official fight at 185, which is good news for Akiyama because you always want to catch a fighter making his debut at a lower weight after spending most of his career at a higher weight. Especially a guy like Silva who isn't used to cutting weight because he's spent most of his career in Japan where cutting weight isn't as glorified as it is in the US.

It's a good match up for Silva because his striking is more explosive than Akiyama's and even though Akiyama has a background in judo, you don't want to be on the inside too long with Silva.



On October 16 Yahoo reported that Dan Henderson could be headed to Strikeforce after contract negotiations with UFC fell through.

This is filed under UFC news because it's not a given that he'll go to Strikeforce. Honestly if UFC couldn't meet his needs, I have my doubts that Strikeforce will be able to meet what Henderson wants.

Like any fighter that spends a long period of time in the UFC and then has some sort of falling out, I believe he'll end up back in the Octagon. It's where he'll make the most money, get the most exposure, and fight the best competition. The only fight that makes sense for Henderson outside of the UFC is against Fedor Presented by M-1 Global. If Strikeforce makes it worth Henderson's time financially and puts the fight on CBS or possibly the first ever Strikeforce PPV then, for one fight at least, Henderson may not regret leaving UFC. That's really the only fight that makes sense for Henderson though. A fight against Mousasi is possible but that wouldn't be a smart fight for Henderson to take.

The thing that really sticks out in this situation is UFC's brain fart in locking up Henderson before putting him in the position they did. I'm sure they figured Henderson would no doubt re-sign with the company but they put him as the coach of TUF 9 and in a high profile fight against Michael Bisping, knowing it was the last fight on his contract. They had to know that if he won, his contract demands would go up and that if he won he could walk away with his newfound exposure and make good coin elsewhere. UFC is usually smarter than this.

It's no secret that a sticking point in Henderson leaving was the fact that he wanted to fight Anderson Silva but Joe Silva and company decided to give that fight to Vitor Belfort instead. I've already made my opinion known on this but for those new to playing this game, I believe that Henderson should have received a title shot after defeating Michael Bisping because we all know Bisping would have got a title shot had he won. Plus I think in terms of marketability, Henderson vs. Silva 2 is a much bigger fight than Belfort vs. Silva.

Minor UFC/WEC News



On October 13 Chuck Liddell was voted off Dancing With The Stars after four weeks of being in the competition.

This is only news because of my man crush on Liddell. I did not watch Dancing With The Stars outside of Liddell's segments on YouTube so I know how he did but don't know how he did in relation to everyone else. Once I saw that the whole show was pretty much a popularity contest I actually thought that Liddell could win the whole thing because everyone seemed to love his "tough guy who dances" act. Unfortunately the MMA community isn't as strong as we thought (or at least the MMA community who cared about Chuck Liddell dancing) as Liddell was bounced from the competition this past Tuesday.

I joked before this whole thing started that Liddell and Dana White had a bet that if Liddell finished in the top 5, Dana would let him come back for one more fight. Unfortunately Liddell finished 11th so if there's any truth to that bet, I guess Liddell is retired. I still firmly believe that he should retire but he won't, especially after his newfound Dancing With The Stars popularity. I think a lot of people will want to see Liddell flip his role and be the "dancing guy who fights." Only time will tell.

To anyone who watched the Simpsons MMA episode: Did you even notice that Chuck Liddell was on the show, did you find the episode to misrepresent MMA, and did you find the episode funny? Personally; I wouldn't have noticed Liddell's voice if I wasn't specifically listening for it, I didn't think the episode misrepresented MMA because I didn't expect it to do anything for the sport anyway, and the show was terribly unfunny. Do you know what I'm saying?

Major Strikeforce/Miscellaneous News



On October 13 Sherdog reported that Strikeforce signed free agent "King" Mo Lawal to compete in the Light Heavyweight division. No debut date has been set.

Is it too late to replace Sokoudjou with KING MO? It would be a far more entertaining fight and have a lot more impact for Strikeforce. Plus maybe they would deem Mo worthy of a Light Heavyweight title shot since Sokoudjou isn't.

I would say Mo will finally get tested in Strikeforce but I'm not so sure about that. Obviously the competition is a lot better than Mark Kerr but outside of Mousasi, who else is there? Rafael Cavalcante was on a roll but he just lost to Mike Kyle and outside of those two, all the best Light Heavyweights are in the UFC. Speaking of Mike Kyle, I think that's who Mo's first opponent in Strikeforce will be. Again, Strikeforce doesn't have much depth in the Light Heavyweight division and I figure they would want to set up Mo vs. Mousasi as soon as possible because that's the only big fight they have. A win over Kyle gives Mo a respectable win and likely earns him a shot at Mousasi, unless of course Sokoudjou beats Mousasi and then they have to do the immediate rematch.

The other option for KING MO's first opponent is the man you know and love as…Bobby Southworth. That's right. Bobby Southworth. Southworth has been MIA since losing the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight title almost a year ago to Renato Sobral but this is the perfect comeback fight for him and Strikeforce. A win over Mo derails the KING MO hype train and probably earns Southworth a shot at the belt he lost via cut. While a win for Mo gives him a win over a guy with some name value and the former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion.

No More News

That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a review of UFC 104. Take care everyone.

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