The Greatest MMA News Column 10.19.09: Questions for UFC 104
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 10.20.2009
411's Dan Plunkett asks three questions that will be answered at UFC 104, Kimbo vs. Houston Alexander, Silva vs. Sexyama, dos Santos vs. Gonzaga, Dan Henderson staying in the UFC, and much more!
We need to kick off this column with a bang…
That'll do it.
3 Questions for UFC 104
Is Anthony Johnson ready to be a top welterweight?
There's been a lot of talk about Anthony "Rumble" Johnson lately, mostly due to the revelation that he is dropping fifty pounds to make the welterweight limit of 170 for Saturday's bout. It's not that he's cutting fifty pounds the week of the fight (he's cutting twenty on fight week), but I think cardio will always be a factor in the latter rounds of Johnson's fights.
"Rumble" will need to have good cardio should his fight against Yoshiyuki Yoshida go into the third round. Yoshida is currently ranked as the #14 welterweight in MMA in 411's rankings, a list Johnson has yet to crack.
Despite being unranked, the 25-year-old Johnson is seen as one of the rising stars of the welterweight division. Along with his size, Johnson has solid wrestling and to use a (future) Mike Goldberg quote "powerful power in his hands and feet" (trust me; he'll say it one day). In fact, there are many people that believe that Johnson will one day have the skill set to dethrone current welterweight ruler Georges St. Pierre. While we may be a couple years away from St. Pierre vs. Johnson, "Rumble" can take a huge step towards the welterweight elite with a win over Yoshida on Saturday.
Should Johnson pull out the victory Saturday, he could start facing guys like Martin Kampmann, Carlos Condit, and Paul Daley (which would be a great fight). If the Cung Le protégé can't get the job done against Yoshida, it will take him a good amount of time to get another chance at a top welterweight. That may not be such a bad thing though, as it will give him more time to grow as a fighter and when he does break into the top 10, you better watch out for Anthony "Rumble" Johnson if you're in his way.
Is Shogun Back?
This is a question that can be answered in victory or defeat, simply because Lyoto Machida is that good. Everyone knows the story: In 2005, Shogun overcame the odds and ran through the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, defeating Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem, and finally Ricardo Arona. Here was a 24-year-old defeating four top ten light heavyweights in a span of four months; it was and is an incredible feat.
Rua's first fight of 2006 ended disappointingly when he broke his arm less than a minute into a fight against Mark Coleman. Eight months later, the Brazilian returned, defeating Cyrille Diabate in the first round. After defeating Kevin Randleman and Kazuhiro Nakamura, Shogun knocked out Alistair Overeem in what turned out to be his last fight in Pride.
After the demise of Pride, Shogun moved his talents to the UFC, where many thought he was sure to become the light heavyweight champion. His first opponent in the Octagon was Forrest Griffin, who nobody expected to be a real threat to Rua. Turns out, Griffin was a threat to Shogun. Not only that, but he beat Shogun in an upset very few saw coming.
Following the contest, Shogun was forced to go under the knife due to a knee injury. He was set to take on Chuck Liddell in the main event of UFC 85 until yet another knee injury forced him off the card. One more knee surgery later Shogun was to return against Mark Coleman at UFC 93. After a far less-than-stellar performance, Shogun won by TKO over Coleman in the third round.
Immediately after UFC 93 wrapped up, the UFC booked Shogun to take on Chuck Liddell at UFC 97. I have to admit, I didn't give Shogun much of a chance in this one. Not because I thought he was never going to be the same, but because I didn't think three months was enough time to correct everything that went wrong against Coleman.
I was wrong.
Shogun put on his best performance in two years in knocking "The Iceman" out in the first round. While he didn't look like the Shogun of 2005-2007, it was a major step towards getting there. Now the question is, will Shogun finally be back at 100% against Lyoto Machida on October 24? I'm not so certain he will.
For knee surgeries, it usually takes 1 ½-2 years for a person to be back at the level they were before the surgery. For the football fans out there, this is why Tom Brady won't play at the same level this year that he was in 2007 (I know he passed for 6 touchdowns on Sunday, but we all know the Titans are playing horribly). By mid-2010, I think we'll see the Shogun that was destroying everybody in Pride (without the soccer kicks and stomps), but I'm not sure we'll see a Shogun on that level Saturday.
Is Lyoto Machida a PPV draw?
This is a question that will definitely be answered after UFC 104. Fighting on a card with very little star power in the co-main event and against an opponent that isn't that well known, Lyoto Machida has his work cut out for him when it comes to attracting PPV buyers.
In his last two fights, Machida hasn't been relied upon to draw PPV buys. At UFC 94 when he fought Thiago Silva, the entire event was built around Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn. That fight drew 99.99% of those PPV buys. Four months later at UFC 98, the grudge match between Matt Hughes and Matt Serra were responsible for many of the 635,000 buys the event totaled. Also, Machida's opponent that night, Rashad Evans, is also a solid draw.
Those two events drew a combined 1.4 million PPV buys, so Machida was exposed to a great number of people for probably the two most impressive performances of his career. This Saturday, the three biggest drawing factors will be the UFC brand, the light heavyweight title bout, and Lyoto Machida. The first factor is an established fan base that buys most shows, a fan base which totals around 400,000. Factor #2 is really just a compliment to the first and third factors, but most of the time events without a title fight draw less than events with a title fight.
The third factor is the most important. What puts PPV buys over the top is the personalities of the people fighting on them (sans for maybe the milestone of UFC 100). Look at the top drawing cards in UFC history: Brock Lesnar, Tito Ortiz, and Chuck Liddell. All three have interesting personalities that make fans want to pay to see them fight.
In terms of North American popularity, Machida is probably the most popular foreign fighter in the UFC at the moment. This could be due to his incredible post fight interviews, but I think it is due to Machida being the guy that comes closest to being the type of fighter many expected to see at UFC 1. He's the karate kid. He'll hit you and move away so you can't hit him, after that he'll knock you out. How far this karate kid thing takes him, we'll find once the UFC 104 numbers come in.
Tickets for UFC 107 in Memphis, Tennessee, go on sale this Saturday to the general public. If you are a member of the UFC Fight Club, you can get your tickets to the event on Thursday, while subscribers to the UFC Newsletter can get tickets starting Friday.
Ticket prices are $350, $250, $150, $100, $75 and $50.
Fight Announcements
- Kimbo vs. Houston Alexander Possible for UFC 107: I won't lie, I want to see this fight. It's just going to be a matter of who connects first, so it would be a fun fight. One thing I don't like here is how Dana White is going around saying he was impressed by Kimbo's performance to try and legitimize why he's getting another shot in the UFC.
Make no mistake about it; Kimbo is only in the UFC to pull in a nice rating or a good buyrate. Had he started fighting ten years earlier, he could have had some potential, but at nearly 36-years-old he doesn't have nearly enough time to catch up.
Kimbo's performance against Roy Nelson wasn't very good. The only noticeable improvement was his takedown defense. Once the fight was taken to the ground, Kimbo was a fish out of water, though that may have been due to Nelson's great skill on the ground. So I applaud Kimbo for giving the sport his all and for making a living for his family, but he isn't going far in the UFC.
- "The Axe Murderer" vs. Sexyama to Headline UFC 111: I love this fight. Both fighters come to fight, neither will back down. The most interesting subplot in this fight will be Wanderlei's recent plastic surgery.
Did Silva get plastic surgery in attempt to outdo Sexyama? Undoubtedly the answer is yes. This will surely lead to some interesting pre-fight talk.
- Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 108: I like this fight for where dos Santos is at this point in his career. I would give "Cigano" the advantage standing, but I'm most interested in what happens should this fight go to the ground. Gonzaga is a highly regarded BJJ player, and I don't expect dos Santos' ground game to be on his level, but I'm interested to see how he deals with a guy like Gonzaga on top of him.
- Alistair Overeem vs. James Thompson at Dream. 12: I'm just ready for Overeem to fight contenders. Next.
- Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce Set for UFN 20: This is a battle of two wrestlers. Pierce defeated Brock Larson on takedowns in September. Koscheck should be able to win this one standing. I'd like to see him get another shot at Georges St. Pierre.
- Demain Maia vs. Dan Miller Likely for UFC 109: This isn't a fight I like for Miller. His biggest strength is his ground game, and if he takes the fight there he'll be outclassed.
- Tyson Griffin vs. Jim Miller at UFC 108: This should be a good fight. I expect Griffin to use a similar strategy that his teammate Gray Maynard did against Gray Maynard.
- Carlos Condit vs. Paul Daley at UFC 108: UFC 108 is looking to be a pretty stacked card. If Condit stands with Daley, it will be a short night. If Daley goes to the ground with Condit, it will be a short night. Prediction: it will be a short night.
Travis Fulton was in the news recently about trying to dedicate himself to MMA. So here's his best knockout:
Dan Henderson Likely to Stay in the UFC
After some speculation that he may end up in Strikeforce, Dan Henderson says he expects to stay with the UFC. I never expected Henderson to actually go to Strikeforce. After all, Strikeforce wouldn't be able to pay Henderson what the UFC is capable of, even if they didn't meet the salary he wanted.
While Henderson vs. Mousasi and even Henderson vs. Fedor interest me, I'd rather see Henderson against the best middleweight and light heavyweight fighters in the world. Also, I still think Henderson vs. Silva II would be the biggest fight the UFC could make at middleweight, though they may have halted its momentum by holding it off until at least Spring 2010.
That is it for this week. Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed it. Feel free to leave a comment, or email me here. Until next week…
Along with his size, Johnson has solid wrestling and to use a (future) Mike Goldberg quote "powerful power in his hands and feet" (trust me; he'll say it one day). In fact, there are many people that believe that Johnson will one day have the skill set to dethrone current welterweight ruler Georges St. Pierre. While we may be a couple years away from St. Pierre vs. Johnson, "Rumble" can take a huge step towards the welterweight elite with a win over Yoshida on Saturday.
