411 MMA Fact or Fiction 10.21.09: Shogun Winning 1 Round, Cain Finishing Rothwell, Henderson's Future & MORE!

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 10.21.2009

Will "Shogun" Rua be the first man to win a UFC round from Lyoto Machida? Can Cain Velasquez finish Ben Rothwell? Is Rashad Evans the best coach in TUF history? Will Dan Henderson's next fight be with UFC? 411's Adam Tool and Larry Csonka debate these topics and more in this week's edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction!

The biggest show in October is this weekend as UFC presents UFC 104 featuring Lyoto Machida trying to make his first UFC Light Heavyweight title defense against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

To preview that event and debate other ongoings in the MMA world this week we have balloon boys biggest fan, the man who always leaves Blood on the Mat, please welcome Adam Tool. His opponent needs no introduction but he'll be mad at me if I don't give him one. You know him, you love him, he is THE Larry Csonka.

It's the biggest rematch since Liddell vs. Ortiz 2. So……

In the words of John McCarthy…LET'S GET IT ON!



1. Lyoto Machida will lose a round to "Shogun" Rua.

Adam Tool FICTION. Lyoto Machida is many things, but one of the biggest strengths he has as a fighter is that his unique mix of skills makes him one of the hardest opponents anyone can try to train for. How can you possibly find a training partner that has world-class skills in karate, sumo, and jiu-jitsu? I've seen comments from "Shogun" where he claims to have figured out how to beat Machida, but it's not like we haven't heard that before. I expect another dominant performance from the champion, so any "Shogun" fans out there would probably be better off skipping UFC 104 and watching their old PRIDE DVDs instead.

Larry Csonka FACT. I may be going out on a limb here, and I just have a feeling that this will not be a quick fight, and that Shogun may be more of the "old" Shogun that people are hoping for. I fully agree with Tool that Machida is such a hard opponent to train for, and I also think the Machida will roll over Shogun. But we also have to remember that this is a fight. There are factors going in that we may not know about, and when I say that Shogun may win a round, remember, you do NOT have to dominate a man to win a round. Different judges, different ways of judging, it is possible. Again, I feel that Machida will win, but if Shogun comes prepared, he may give Machida more than most expect.

SCORE: 0 for 1.

2. Rashad Evans is the best coach in TUF history.

Adam Tool FICTION. It's hard to answer the question conclusively since there's so much of the actual training that gets left on the cutting room floor. Do we know for a fact that Evans has taught his guys more than other coaches have in the past? We do not. All we know is what we see, and given this season so far it looks as if Evans is doing a pretty good job. He certainly looks like one of the best coaches in the show's history, at least when compared to the terrible job that "Rampage" is doing. Evans also benefits from having the best assistant coach in history, as Greg Jackson is an invaluable member of Team Rashad. "Sugar" is doing pretty good, but I don't know enough to name him the best of all time.

Larry Csonka FICTION. I wanted to add some more disagreement to the column, to make this a bit more fun, but I have to agree with Tool here. The fact is that there is a ton of footage we do not see. Add to that the fact that the coaches bring trainers along to do a lot of the training, and we just do not see how much a coach actually "coaches". On the surface Rashad "has been presented" as the best coach in the show's history in terms of his wins and how he cares about all of the fighters. For all we know, Rashad may talk a good game and chill on a LAZY-BOY 90% of the time. We just don't know. From what we have seen, he appears to be an excellent coach. Maybe he will turn to coaching and open a gym down the line. Maybe all of the nipple tweaking and moments of ZEN from Greg Jackson have rubbed off on him. But we just do not know, and that is why I went fiction here.

SCORE: 1 for 2.

3. Besides the main event, the fight you're most interested in at UFC 104 is Johnson vs. Yoshida.

Adam Tool FACT. There's plenty of hype surrounding Anthony "Rumble" Johnson. He's got big power and has been expanding his repertoire by training with Cung Le. Without a doubt, Yoshiyuki Yoshida presents the biggest challenge thus far in Johnson's career. While he had plenty of hype before his UFC debut, "Zenko" faced a major setback last year when he was knocked out by Josh Koscheck. A win over the highly-touted Johnson would put the Japanese fighter back on track to possible contention in the welterweight division. There are other interesting fights to be had on the card (Fisher vs. Stevenson and Barry vs. Hardonk are two that come to mind) but this bout should be a great way to open the show and will likely determine the next member of the welterweight elite.

Larry Csonka FACT. I had to think about this for a minute, because part of me is really looking forward to Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez. But at the end of the day, I am a HUGE Rumble Johnson fan, and he is a dude that I watch and want to succeed. I think that we as fight fans find a guy that entertains us on some level, and we just attach ourselves to that fighter, and Rumble is one of those guys for me. I want to see his fights no matter who they are against, and I want to see him succeed. Also, as Tool touched on, the fight has big implications. Yoshida is no joke, and if Johnson can have a convincing victory, his stock continues to rise. But if Yoshida can manage a victory, he starts the climb back, and hell, I wouldn't mind a rematch with Koscheck if that were the case. Rumble young man Rumble, this fight could be most excellent.

SCORE: 2 for 3.

Video Intermission



4. Cain Velasquez will finish Ben Rothwell at UFC 104.

Larry Csonka: FICTION. Ben Rothwell is 14-1 in his last 15 fights, and was only stopped in his loss by Andrei Arlovski. In his 14 wins, he finished 12 opponents, most in the first round. Now Velasquez is 6-0, and has finished 5 of his 6 opponents. Many feel that Velasquez will run through Rothwell, but I have to say that I am not as high on Velasquez as others, and that comes from his match with Kongo. That win was easily the biggest win of his career. And he took some great shots from Kongo. But the fact is, I feel that he should have finished him, especially in the final round. He had chances for the submission, but almost seemed too afraid to take them. There is a point to being careless and then there is that killer instinct. To me he didn't show that against Kongo. But, it is still a good victory, and that is what we need to take away from this. Beating Kongo was NOT a given by any means, no matter what anyone says. The victory makes him 6-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC, which is not an easy task, anyone can lose on any day. But if I am honest here, I do not have confidence that Velasquez will finish him. I think that he can win, but finish, not sure at all.

Adam Tool FACT. C'mon Larry, you and I both know that Kongo is nearly impossible to finish. Cain is still relatively green to the sport, but the raw athleticism that he brings to the table is tough for anyone to prepare for. This fight is closer than the odds would have you believe, and there are several things working in Rothwell's favor (experience and size being the main points). That being said, Velasquez has the power and wrestling ability to dictate where this fight will take place. I believe Cain will get this fight to the mat sooner than later, and in terms of ground and pound he's got an offense that is only eclipsed by the current heavyweight champion. Add in the fact that Rothwell has been away from the sport for nearly a year and I think it's all the more likely that this fight ends with the referee pulling Velasquez off of his opponent.

SCORE: 2 for 4.



5. Dan Henderson's next fight will be in the UFC.

Larry Csonka: FACT. At least I hope so. As I said in the R's this week, the UFC is running roughly 20-shows next year. Can the UFC as a company really afford to drop a main event caliber fighter knowing this? I don't think so. Also, I feel that this hurts the middleweight division. Hendo vs. Nate the great was a good co-main even match, and if Hendo were to win, you have a great story of him getting back to the title shot, one more chance to prove that he is the man. For now, that is gone. I feel that the UFC will come around and that Hendo will also come around and that they will find some middle ground and sign a new deal. They just can't afford to lose a guy that they put so much into, especially coming out of the Ultimate Fighter and UFC 100. I feel that they NEED to re-sign him.

Adam Tool FACT. I agree that the UFC can't afford to lose Hendo, but I think the bigger factor is that nobody else can afford to get him. Strikeforce is the de facto #2 promotion in the country and after opening their wallets to sign Fedor I find it highly unlikely that they'll be able to beat whatever offer the UFC has put out there for Henderson. Some have speculated on him returning to Japan, but with the sport having trouble finding an audience since the fall of PRIDE I wonder if either of the two major promotions would be able to come up with the necessary scratch as well. The UFC is the biggest, and as such they've got the deepest pockets. Everything we've heard from Henderson's camp tells us that this is all about the money, so it's really a matter of time until a deal is reached to bring Hendo back into the octagon.

SCORE: 3 for 5.

6. The Simpsons MMA episode misrepresented MMA and wasn't funny.

Larry Csonka: FACT. It isn't so much that it "misrepresented MMA", as the show was about what I expected. It was the basic stance on MMA in many ways, from the name of the company to "parental" overreactions. But quite honestly, I just didn't find it all that funny. I am not a Simpsons hater like I read in the comments all the time. I enjoy the show much of the time, and usually DVR the show to watch. But this show was, just a show. There was a chuckle here and there from me, I will say that, but it is not what I will call "funny". To me, a funny show is one that makes me laugh out loud, usually several times, and this show just did not do that for me. Quite honestly, as I sit here, I had to go back and re-watch it because I didn't remember jack shit about the show, and if I cannot remember the show a week later, it obviously wasn't that good. Sorry Simpsons, try again.

Adam Tool FACT. Of course they misrepresented MMA. They're not in the business of accurately portraying the events and occupations they feature on the show. They simply use it as a backdrop for the wacky situations that ensue. Remember the episode where Homer became an astronaut? I'll bet real-life astronauts hate that episode because it's full of inaccuracies. As for whether the episode was funny or not, well that's really a matter of your opinion. I can say that I viewed the show without laughing once, and I'm someone that's been watching the series since the very beginning. This is the MMA zone so I'm not going to go into a rant about the steady decline in quality for one of my favorite shows of all time, so instead I'll just say that if you missed this episode there's no reason for you to ever watch it.

SCORE: 4 for 6.

Adam and Larry agree more often than not. Could a rubber match be in the cards?

Come back next week as two more MMA writers debate the fallout of UFC 104 and the latest happenings in the MMA world in 411 MMA Fact or Fiction.

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