Blood On The Mat 10.22.09: Questions For UFC 104

Posted by  on 10.22.2009

Is Lyoto Machida destined to be the next unstoppable champion? Can “Shogun” still be dominant under UFC rules? Is Cain Velasquez ready to be an elite heavyweight? Will Yushin Okami ever get a title shot? 411’s Adam Tool looks at these questions and more in this week’s Blood On The Mat!

Welcome back to Blood On The Mat. My name is Adam Tool and I'm happy to report that after more than a year and a half of writing for this website, I have finally gotten something tangible in return. Head honcho Ashish sent me a copy of UFC 100 for review, so look for that on the site in the very near future. For now though, let's do this…


It's time once again for the biggest show in town, as the UFC returns to Los Angeles this weekend. With eleven fights on the card spread throughout the company's divisions there are plenty of questions hanging in the air.

Will Lyoto Machida be the next unstoppable UFC champion?

Amongst the five UFC champions, Machida currently sits as the only man who has yet to defend his title. Each of the other champions has shown a unique level of dominance in their division. BJ Penn has used his boxing and jiu-jitsu skills to become the undisputed king of the lightweight division. Georges St. Pierre has become (arguably) the greatest wrestler in mixed-martial arts. Anderson Silva's insane striking ability has allowed him to hold on to his belt for the last three years. Brock Lesnar has emerged as the most powerful force in the heavyweight ranks, despite his inexperience in the sport.

There is one other critical difference though between Machida and the other champions: all four of the other title holders have been defeated at one point or another. Machida's loss column remains unblemished, leaving us all to wonder just how (and when) someone will defeat him.


That ain‘t Mountain Dew

Personally, I don't think we'll see Machida get his first loss this weekend. At this point there's still no definitive answer on how to beat him. An aggressive striker like Thiago Silva will simply play right into Machida's strengths as a counter-striker. Machida uses his movement almost as an offensive weapon, keeping his opponent second-guessing and swinging at air. Early on in his UFC career there were questions about Machida's power, but those questions were answered with back-to-back KO wins earlier this year.

A powerful wrestler like Tito Ortiz or Rashad Evans will have little luck getting the fight to a horizontal position. Machida is a world champion in sumo, meaning he's got an incredible base and sprawl to keep things standing whenever he pleases. Should he get taken down then things don't get any easier, as Lyoto holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu (a skillset he's displayed little of thus far in the UFC).


You sure you want to stop it? Because I can hit him so more y‘know

Machida's rise to the top of the light heavyweight division comes at a time when the weight class is undergoing significant change. The old guard is all but gone, with Chuck Liddell contemplating retirement, Wanderlei Silva moving down to middleweight, and "Rampage" Jackson off playing dress-up with Liam Neeson and Bradley Cooper. As such it appears that future contenders for the LHW strap will be guys that have never competed at that level before. Of course, this is something I talked about in detail a few weeks ago.

Can "Shogun" Rua be dominant under UFC rules?


I‘m sorry, no more questions. Gossip Girl is starting in five minutes

Thus far, Rua's UFC career has been mostly marked by mediocrity. He underperformed and was submitted by Forrest Griffin, then returned from a long layoff to face Hall of Famer Mark Coleman. Rua won that fight by being slightly less out-of-shape than Coleman was, leaving plenty of questions about his future in the sport. Then came the bout with Chuck Liddell, and while Rua was able to score the win, he did so against a fighter that's clearly nearing the end of his career.

Now he's taking on his toughest opponent in years, as Machida represents the current high water mark for the light heavyweight division. Rua was once in that position himself, so is it possible for him to dethrone the champ and reach the top again?


Does this look infected?

I don't think so, and there's at least one good reason why. Part of the aura surrounding "Shogun" came from his aggressive style, with an emphasis on his vicious arsenal of stomps and soccer kicks. The assault of a downed opponent was one of Rua's calling cards, but those weapons have been taken away from him with the move to the UFC. He's still got great hands and a devastating clinch game, but his finishing ability has been weakened by the rules he must now follow.

Obviously "Shogun" is still capable of winning in the UFC, however I find it highly unlikely that he'll be able to match the dominance he showed in PRIDE (where his lone loss came as a result of an injury). If Rua is able to upset Machida on Saturday then I will happily eat crow, but for now I'm putting my money on the fact that "Shogun" will never be a UFC champion.

Is Cain Velasquez ready to be part of the elite at heavyweight?

When the card for UFC 104 was originally announced, Velasquez was slated to face the heavy-handed Shane Carwin in a #1 contenders bout. Then plans were changed, Carwin jumped ahead into his title fight, and now Velasquez must face another tough opponent in Ben Rothwell. While UFC fans aren't familiar with "Big Ben," there's no doubt that he's going to present quite a challenge for the AKA heavyweight. Should Cain emerge victorious it's likely that he'll be next in line to face the winner of Lesnar/Carwin, or at the very least he'll be right there in the mix of contenders. But is he ready for that?


Cain finally debuts "Magnum"

It's easy to draw comparisons between Velasquez and Brock Lesnar. Both men come from amateur wrestling backgrounds. Each of them has a fight record that numbers in the single digits. They're both known for having some brutal ground and pound. But of course, there's one major difference: while Lesnar has gone through a trial by fire against top names in the division, Velasquez has only recently begun to face stiffer competition. As such there are still plenty of doubters who don't think Cain has what it takes to hang with the top dogs.

The fight on Saturday will prove whether Velasquez deserves to be amongst the top names at heavyweight. If he should lose to Rothwell then it will obviously send him back down the ladder for now, although I have no doubt in my mind that Cain will be a contender some day. Should he put away Rothwell in dominant fashion then that day will certainly come much sooner.

Has Joe Stevenson ended his slump?

When "Ultimate Fighter" season 2 winner Joe Stevenson made the move down to lightweight, he quickly rattled off four wins against respectable opponents. Then he ran into the unstoppable force known as BJ Penn and proceeded to lose in his bid for the UFC Lightweight Championship. A couple more losses followed and it became clear to "Joe Daddy" that a change was needed.

Stevenson made the move to Greg Jackson's camp to train for his bout with Nate Diaz. The new leadership paid off as Stevenson dominated Diaz en route to a much-needed win and a "Fight of the Night" bonus. Now he prepares to fight the always-tough Spencer Fisher, and a win on Saturday would put Stevenson right back in the hunt for another title shot.


The bro-ho ratio is not working in Joe's favor

During the fight with Diaz, it became clear that Stevenson has gone back to his roots. He's brought his wrestling skills back into the octagon, instead of relying on his striking and the occasional guillotine to get the job done. Fisher won't be easy to take down, and he's constantly threatening off of his back (see his fight with Thiago Alves for proof). Stevenson will have the benefit of having the best game-planner in the business in his corner, and I predict he'll come out on top in this bout.

Is Anthony Johnson the next big thing at welterweight?


A fight that wouldn‘t even be sanctioned in Alabama

If there's one thing the fans love, it's a fighter that will come out and throw leather early and often. Anthony Johnson is just that type of fighter, as he's racked up three impressive KO's during his UFC career. He's been training with world-renowned kickboxer (and occasional MMA fighter) Cung Le, and at just 25 years old he's quickly emerging as one of the most dangerous opponents for anyone in the welterweight division.

He's got arguably the toughest test to date in the form of Yoshiyuki Yoshida, as the Japanese fighter has plenty of power to go along with his world-class judo skills. Johnson will need to find his range early and keep his distance, because if he gets into a clinch-war with Yoshida it's a fight he's going to lose.

If Johnson is able to continue his winning ways it's highly likely that he'll find himself in line for a title shot sooner than later. Georges St. Pierre's complete dominance of the welterweight ranks has left the UFC devoid of credible challengers, so the opportunities will be coming quickly for the division's young bucks.

One factor that could stand in Johnson's way is his size. Obviously it doesn't hurt to be the biggest guy in a fight, but he reportedly cuts upwards of 30 pounds to make 170. A slip in his preparations could cost him dearly if he has trouble making weight, especially if it becomes a regular occurrence. I have to wonder if a move up to middleweight would make sense, especially as time goes on and the process of cutting becomes more and more difficult.

Can Ryan Bader survive in the light heavyweight sharktank?

Saturday night will be Bader's tenth MMA fight, after less than three years of competing professionally. As an "Ultimate Fighter" champion there's certainly going to be added pressure on him to perform well in his UFC career, but he's already at a disadvantage simply by being in one of the company's deepest divisions.


From L-R: Ass, Tits, Bader

There are few fighters in the UFC's light heavyweight class that can be considered "cans." He's certainly not getting an easy fight this weekend, as Eric Schafer is currently on a four-fight win streak and has gotten seven of his eleven wins by submission. His training in boxing could also present problems for Bader while the fight is standing.

There is one area where Bader will hold the advantage over anyone he faces, and that's wrestling. His amateur credentials cannot be matched by anyone else in the division (except for Dan Henderson…if he comes back to the UFC), which means he should be able to impose his will and dictate where each fight he's in takes place.

Assuming he wins on Saturday, don't be surprised to see Bader matched up with a bigger name in 2010. The UFC usually likes to bring their "TUF" champs along slowly, but if Lyoto Machida does go on a tear through the upper ranks (as I believe he will) then the company will need new names to fill those spots.

Will Yushin Okami ever be a contender?

What in the hell does Okami have to do to get a crack at the belt? He's 7-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming against former champ Rich Franklin (and that was a fight that Okami nearly won in the third round). He's beaten notable fighters like Evan Tanner, Jason MacDonald, Mike Swick, and Alan Belcher. If that wasn't enough, he's the last man to score a victory over the long-reigning UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. Sure the win was due to a disqualification, but it still counts.

Not only is Okami being denied his title shot (despite the fact that he's universally ranked as a top 5 middleweight) he can't even make it on to the main card of a PPV. For UFC 104 the company is running two preliminary fights on Spike, and Okami can't even get any love there. The reason for this isn't hard to figure out, as Okami is widely considered to be a "boring" fighter.


The closest he‘ll ever get to gold

On Saturday Okami is being matched up with another fighter considered by some to be "boring," Chael Sonnen. The match-up isn't liable to win "Fight of the Night" honors, at least on paper. If Okami truly wants people to stand up and take notice he'll need to put on his most impressive performance to date. The middleweight contendership pool is getting deeper and more complicated, so simply getting the win isn't going to be enough. If Okami puts Sonnen away convincingly it's all the more likely that Dana White will want to put him into a title fight situation.

The Silva/Okami rematch would be a fairly easy sell at that point, especially given the built-in history between the two. Anderson Silva has been adamant about taking on fights that will challenge him, but at the same time I'm sure there's a part of him that would like to avenge that particular loss before he retires from the sport.

As fight cards go, UFC 104 would have to rank somewhere in the middle. There's some solid match-ups on the card, but few fights that could be deemed "must-see." Of course, it's been my experience in the past that some of the weakest cards on paper end up being some of the best events when the show actually starts.

So out of curiosity, are you planning to watch UFC 104 this weekend?

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