411's MMA Roundtable Preview - UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun

Posted by Jeffrey Harris on 10.23.2009

The UFC returns to Los Angeles as Lyoto Machida defends his light heavyweight belt against 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix Champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Anthony Johnson faces Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Cain Velasquez takes on Ben Rothwell and much more! Check out 411’s complete UFC 104 Roundtable Preview for all the details and join us for our live coverage, starting at 9PM ET Saturday night!



WELCOME:
The UFC returns to Los Angeles for the live PPV event, UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun. And besides that, the main card also features lightweight battles in Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher and Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer. Anthony Johnson takes on Yoshiyuki Yoshida in a welterweight fight, and Cain Velasquez faces off against Ben Rothwell in a heavyweight fight. Plus, there's also the Spike TV preliminary card featuring Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer in a light heavyweight fight and heavyweights Pat Barry and Antoni Hardonk will also be facing off.

THE STAFF:

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, Wrestling, and multiple MMA interviews, the 411mania Jack of All Trades Jeffrey Harris!

From the The Takedown, the 411mania MMA Sensation, Daniel Bonnizzio!

From The Blueprint and the TUF recap master, the MMA architect Patrick Mullin!

From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, the Judge of all MMA Jonathan Solomon!

From The Rear Naked Column, the MMA Socrates Samer Kadi!

From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, the Hannah Montana Otaku Jeremy Lambert!



THE SPIKE TV CARD:

Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk vs. Pat Barry


Jeffrey Harris: Hardcore MMA fans will complain why a fight like this makes TV and not their boy, Yushin Okami fighting Chael Sonnen. The thing is, this fight makes TV because it will probably be short or end in the first round and have an exciting finish. Barry's got great power and good kickboxing, but in his last fight he proved he needs to round out his skills more. Well, he couldn't ask for a better tuning up fight than Hardonk.

Winner: Pat Barry, KO, RD 1

Daniel Bonnizzio: Pat Barry vs Antoni Hardonk is another classic matchup of 'two guys coming off of losses and one needs a win.' Unfortuneatly for Mr Hardonk, Pat Barry has the kind of kickboxing skills and experience that Chieck Kongo used to give Hardonk a bad night. If we don't see Pat walk away a TKO victor, he's going to use those skills to stick and run to get a decision victory.

Winner: Pat Barry, Un Decision

Patrick Mullin:This is a no brainer to put on the prelim show because each of these guys loves to stand and bang, and with heavyweights all it usually takes is one to end it. Barry has shown that while powerful he leaves a lot of openings, and Hardonk like Barry is a former kickboxer. I'm going for the upset here and picking Hardonk. I think there's zip chance of this fight going to the ground and I think Hardonk has the better kickboxing.

Winner: Antoni Hardonk, KO, Round 2

Jonathan Solomon: This heavyweight battle is going to be a sight to see. 6'4" Dutchmen Antoni Hardonk looks to rebound from his loss against Cheick Kongo in April. He is 4-3 in the UFC and does not want to go to five-hundred overall. He is a kicckboxer whose only submission win came against 'ol Wes Sims in 2004. Meanwhile, Patrick Barry is a New Orleans boy standing at 5'11" tall. He fought in Sanshou and kickboxing for years (his last kickboxing fight was last summer) before making his MMA debut in May 2008. He suffered his first MMA defeat in May against Tim Hague via submission. These two strikers will go all out and it's no secret why the UFC chose this as one of the two guaranteed fights to air on Spike TV.

Winner: Pat Barry, TKO, Round 2.

Samer Kadi: You can't argue with the decision to show this fight on SPIKE. Sure there are some more deserving names on the undercard, but this one is a guaranteed slugfest between two experienced kickboxers. Pat Barry is coming off a hugely disappointing loss to Tim Hague, where he looked utterly clueless on the ground and was submitted in a matter of seconds. Fortunately for him, this fight has little chance to go to the mat. Seeing as their striking skills are almost equal, the fight will be decided by smaller variables. Which is where Hardonk's reach will come into play. Barry will have a hard time getting on the inside while Hardonk could be content to pepper him with jabs and trademark leg kicks, eventually frustrating Barry and drawing him into making a critical mistake.

Winner: Antony Hardonk, TKO, Round 2.

Jeremy Lambert: This should be a hell of a stand up battle as both guys are kickboxers by trade and lack a decent ground game. They both do a lot of the same things including throwing sick leg kicks. Hardonk is the bigger and stronger fighter so it stands to reason that he could just overpower Barry on the feet and that's what I'm banking on in this fight. Barry's best shot is to use his speed against Hardonk and stay out of the clinch and off the cage.

Winner: Antonio Hardonk, TKO, Round Two

---

Light heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer


Jeffrey Harris: I think people have been overlooking Ryan Bader lately as well as his credentials. Plain and simple, the dude's a good fighter. He's undefeated, and he has a good finishing record his last fight notwithstanding. The man is a beast in the gym and he's got power. Schafer is 3-2 in the UFC, and has won his last two fights there, though against unimpressive competition (Antonio Mendes and Houston Alexander). This is Bader's fight to win.

Winner: Ryan 'Darth' Bader, TKO, RD 1

Daniel Bonnizzio: Ryan Bader, the winner of the Light Heavyweight tournament of TUF8, makes his PPV debut here and on free TV no less. Wait... Anyway, 'Darth' Bader is a great wrestler and while some will think he'll take the traditional lay n pray method here, I think that he'll use his explosive power to end Schafer's night early. Sorry Red.

Winner: Ryan 'Darth' Bader, TKO, RD 2

Patrick Mullin: Ryan Bader is a guy many see as the future of the light heavyweight division. He's strong, aggressive, and athletic. Schaeferhas shown the ability to take advantages of weaknesses in the game of his opponents, but you'd be hard pressed to find where he can take advantage of Bader who is going to be on him like ugly on an ape. If Schaefer survives round one its a moral victory.

Winner: Ryan "Darth" Bader, TKO, Round 2

Jonathan Solomon: Ryan Bader is back after tearing his MCL and PCL during his decision win over Carmelo Marrero in April. Is he 100% without any issues? We'll find out Saturday night. Assuming he is fine, he takes his wrestling background and power into the cage with him. He will not tire out and has that takedown ability that great wrestlers have. Eric Schafer is a BJJ black belt with eight of his eleven wins occurring by submission. He is on a four fight winning streak and has not fought since January. This should be a good fight with the classic wrestler vs. grappler match-up in play. I will go with the upset because Schafer's submission skills are stupendous.

Winner: Eric Schafer, Submission, Round 2.

Samer Kadi: This is an interesting bout. Ryan Bader is a fantastic wrestler with heavy hands. He showed glimpses of his potential in his last fight against Carmelo Marrero although his overall performance was rather forgettable. Shafer possesses some serious BJJ skills and can land submissions from the top or bottom. If Bader chooses to keep the fight standing, Schafer will have a really hard time taking it to the ground. On the feet, it's Bader who holds a clear advantage, and I don't think Schafer – who was seriously rocked in his fight with Houston Alexander – will want anything to do with the striking game. If Bader takes the fight down, he will struggle to pass Schafer's guard or land significant ground and pound, but he is an experienced enough grappler to avoid Schafer's submission attempts.

Winner: Ryan Bader, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: For some reason I'm really interested in this fight. I think Bader has a lot of potential to do something in the UFC but at the same time I view Schafer as a tough 2nd post-TUF fight for Bader. Schafer has the better technical striking but Bader has one punch KO power, especially in his right hand. Bader is a much better wrestler but Schafer's bread and butter is his jiu-jitsu so you have to wonder if Bader wants anything to do with the ground game. Bader has excellent top control and positioning though so he could fend off the active submissions of Schafer. I like Bader to win this fight because if he's going to be a future contender in the division, he needs to beat Schafer but don't sleep on "Red" because he could put Bader to sleep.

Winner: Ryan Bader, TKO, Round Two

---

THE MAIN CARD:


Welterweight bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Jeffrey Harris: Nothing against Yoshida, but the dude's going to get destroyed. Johnson is a rising star at welterweight, and Yoshida isn't going to stand in his way. Not to mention Johnson had a heinous crime committed against him by Steve Mazzagatti who hopefully won't be reffing this fight.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, KO, RD 1

Daniel Bonnizzio: 'Rumble' has been rumbling along in his career. His only losses thus far coming by way of iGouge from Kevin Burns and a submission loss to No Love himself Rich Clementi, Rumble is going to try and use that wicked athleticism and huge size advantage over Yoshida to press the action quickly and end Yoshida's night as soon as it starts. Though Yoshida is a great judoka in his own right, I don't see Rumble letting him get in close enough to use that skill and Yoshida is going to take a canvas nap again.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, KO, RD 1

Patrick Mullin: See, MMA has jobber squashes and this is one of them. Rumble Johnson is a crowd pleasing KO artist, while Yoshida is best known to UFC fans as the guy who's head was punched in by Josh Koscheck. Rumble's striking is night and day with Koscheck's because Rumble is actually a very polished striker. This one ends with a bang early.

Winner: Anthony "Rumble" Johnson, KO, Round 1

Jonathan Solomon: Anthony Johnson is the better overall athlete so that combined with his wrestling background should relieve any thoughts that Yoshida will frequently take the fight to the ground and win via submission. Johnson is a fun striker to watch with an array of kicks and other aggressive strikes. Yoshida is a Judoka who has a nice overall skill set whether it be in the clinch, standing or on the ground. Yoshida knocking Rumble Johnson out is not something I see happening. Contrary to that, I do think Johnson can knock Yoshida out.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, TKO, Round 2.

Samer Kadi: This as far as I'm concerned is the most anticipated fight of the evening this side of the main event. Both fighters have the potential to become a major player in the welterweight division. Their styles couldn't be more different though. Yoshida is a grappler at heart who likes to utilize his high level judo to get the fight to the ground. He has a very imposing top game, and he does possess a polished submission game as well. Unfortunately for him, Johnson poses a bad match up for him. For starters, "Rumble" will hold a significant size (and reach) advantage over his opponent. His wrestling skills and explosiveness mean Yoshida has little chance to take him down. Yoshida has been training with Team Jackson, so expect to see some improvements in his game, particularly with his stand up. But will that improvement be enough against a striker as good as Johnson? Doubtful.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, KO, Round 1.

Jeremy Lambert: This seems like a rather great style fight for Johnson. He has explosive and powerful striking to go along with his size, athleticism, and wrestling. Yoshida is a well rounded fighter and being a Judoka gives him an advantage over a lot of fighters but I think he's going to have a hard time controlling Johnson in the clinch long enough to throw him around. If he can put Johnson on his back then he could easily win this fight considering wrestlers hate being on their back, Johnson's ground game is lacking, and Yoshida has good ground and pound. But I think Johnson will be able to keep it standing, use his quick striking, and score a knockout.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, TKO, Round Three

---

Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer


Jeffrey Harris: Both guys are coming off of a loss, but I doubt either man would be cut if they lost here. Both guys are tough fighters, and Neer always brings it to have entertaining, fun and sometimes bloody fights. I like Neer taking this one and it should be a good fight.

Winner: Josh Neer, Decision

Daniel Bonnizzio: Like Barry/Hardonk, this is another two-guys-on-a-loss fight, but unlike them, these guys are in the ultra-competitive lightweight division so they are going to really bust their balls to get a win here. Gleison has a deceptive record, losing by lucky guillotine to Joe Daddy and losing a controversial split decision to Melvin Guillard. The difference here is where the effort to finish is going to be. In his fights, Tibau is content to submit or ride out the decision whereas Neer looks to constantly finish his fights. Losing via wrestler-smother by the hands of Kurt Pellegrino, Neer is very active off his back and against Tibau it is likely that he is going to wind up there a lot. I see Neer's effort to finish getting him the decision win here.

Winner: Josh Neer, Split Decision

Patrick Mullin: Tibau and Neer are both coming off of losses so you know each guy is hungry to win here. Tibau lost a controversial decision to Melvin Guillard while Neer lost a clear cut decision to Kurt Pellegrino. The thing to look for here is Neer's profficiency at fighting off of his back. Tibau was able to put Melvin Guillard down but couldn't inflict any damage, and Melvin is much less of a threat on his back than Neer is. Neer fights with urgency, as seen when he nearly stopped Pellegrino with elbow strikes in the final seconds of their bout. Josh rebounds here.

Winner: Josh Neer, Submission, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: This is the story of an exceptional grappler against a very good overall fighter. Gleison Tibau is a big lightweight who has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Josh Neer on the other hand may not have a black belt in any single discipline, but he is solid as a striker and a grappler. His striking may be more disciplined and he definitely has more power in his hands. There is no doubt Tibau will look to take the fight to the ground and go for the submission once he does. As long as Neer can avoid the ground game as long as possible, his chances of winning with his hands are very good. I am counting on the black belt being able to take the fight down when he wants to.

Winner: Gleison Tibau, Decision.

Samer Kadi: Josh Neer is always a safe bet when it comes to producing exciting fights. His fight with Mac Danzig remains one of the more underappreciated bouts of the year. He is a fairly well rounded fighter with good stand up skills and really a underrated ground game. With that said his main weakness remains his wrestling and I think Tibau is good enough to put him on his back. Neer is comfortable fighting off his back as well, and employs a highly active guard. Tibau is a high level Jiu-Jitsu practitioner but needs to avoid getting sloppy from the top. I think this will be a hard back and forth battle but Neer's cardio as well as his versatility will earn him the decision.

Winner: Josh Neer, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: I really like Josh Neer and I really want him to win this fight but Kurt Pellegrino, who has worse wrestling and jiu-jitsu than Tibau, was able to control Neer on the ground so I suspect that Tibau will try and do the same thing. Neer is tough to finish though and he's really active off his back so he could catch Tibau with a submission but if Tibau fights a cautious fight, which I suspect he will, then Neer won't have too many openings for a submission. Hopefully Neer wins because he's pretty much the 3rd Diaz brother at this point but I just don't like this fight for him.

Winner: Gleison Tibau, Decision

---

Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher


Jeffrey Harris: Both guys recently back in the win column: Stevenson over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher over Caol Uno. Stevenson seems to definitely have changed things up for the better as of late, and now being in the Greg Jackson camp, I am giving him the edge over Spencer Fisher who seems to be getting lost in the lightweight shuffle as of late. A win here while it won't make you a #1 contender, will give you a win over a name UFC veteran. This could very well be a battle of lightweight gatekeepers though.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Sub, RD 3

Daniel Bonnizzio: Joe Daddy takes on the King himself in another 155 pound battle. Coming hot off decision wins, both men should look to finish the fight. Joe's definitely the better grappler between the two, using nice wrestling in combination with his slick jiujitsu, but standing he prefers a boxing match as opposed to Spencer's more varied assault. I don't see Spencer trying to take Joe down often, but when he does he will probably be successful because of his varied attacks to set it up, but if it hits the ground Spencer is out. Joe's superior ground skills are going to make the difference here.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Submission (Guillotine), RD 2

Patrick Mullin: In a stacked lightweight division, perhaps more than anything on the card this is a fight to stay relevant. Stevenson is coming off of a much needed win against Nate Diaz to avoid a three fight losing streak, while Fisher has won three straight after his last loss way back at UFC 78. Sometimes its neccesity that drives a man harder to win. If you want to look for a deciding factor that doesn't get a lot of play but should, ask yourself who really needs this fight more, because thats what I think its going to come down to.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Unanimous Decision.

Jonathan Solomon: Joe Stevenson is too good of an overall fighter to be bullied again. Spencer Fisher is a good fighter, don't get me wrong, but he is not Penn/Sanchez good. Stevenson's mix of wrestling and striking continues to improve over time. Fisher may be the better of the two overall if it is a boxing match, but that will be asking a lot. Can Fisher keep Stevenson at a distance and avoid the clinch and ground game? I don't see it. Stevenson will look to stand and trade with Fisher and when he needs to, he will take the fight down. The thought that has me thinking Fisher can pull this fight off is if the fight is fought standing long enough, Fisher will score plenty of points. Stevenson will look to go on a winning streak after defeating Nate Diaz recently. Meanwhile, Fisher is already on a three-fight winning streak with wins over Jeremy Stephens, Shannon Gugerty and Caol Uno.

Winner: Spencer Fisher, Decision.

Samer Kadi: In the second lightweight battle on the main card, Joe Stevenson bids to build a decent winning streak by taking on Spencer Fisher. Stevenson did well in his fight against Nate Diaz as he fought to his strengths and overpowered Nate with repeated takedowns and aggressive top control. I see no reason why he couldn't do the same to Spencer Fisher here. "The King" has long suffered from his inability to defend takedowns, and although he did reasonably well in that area against Caol Uno, Stevenson is a different animal, and a much bigger one (compared to Uno). Spencer's striking is more refined in my opinion, but he will have a hard time staying on his feet. Stevenson is seemingly rejuvenated since moving to the Greg Jackson camp (at this rate everyone will be training there soon) and I expect him to continue his winning ways in this one.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: On the feet Fisher is a better striker if he lets his hands go and I really think Stevenson is almost afraid to get hit. Unfortunately Fisher has mediocre takedown defense, especially when he's open to striking so I suspect Stevenson will get Fisher to commit to punches and then put him on his back. Fisher is active on the ground but I don't think he's slick enough to tap Stevenson with anything and he has to worry about the guillotine on the scramble. This could be a really exciting fight or a really boring fight depending on a couple of factors (Stevenson's willingness to trade, Fisher's willingness to let his hands go). Hopefully it's exciting.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Decision

---

Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell


Jeffrey Harris: Rothwell, a lot of people seem to be high on him. I see he's got a 30-6 record so he's clearly more experienced, but let's see if he is that good and can hang with young, tough UFC fighters like Cain. Yes, Cain got beat up standing in the Kongo fight. He then dominated Kongo and won. And then people said Cain has NO POWER. That's absolutely ridiculous since the Kongo win is the first time he ever went the distance for a fight. Before that, Cain finished all his fights by TKO. People are definitely overlooking Rothwell's striking and power for this fight which will be short.

Winner: Velasquez, KO, RD 1

Daniel Bonnizzio: "The IFL's number 1 heavyweight Ben Rothwell" takes on Cain Velasquez in this big co-main event. A nasty veteran in his own right, Rothwell has the ability to finish fights wherever it goes, something Cain showed he may have a weakness in with his UFC 99 fight against Kongo. Sure he stopped his first two fights but once he had fighters with decent chins (a steel chin in Stojnic's case) he had trouble really putting them away. Rothwell is seasoned enough to know where to put the fight but Cain's wrestling could make it difficult. Add to that the rumors that Ben is in really good shape and we'll see a different Rothwell beat Cain at UFC 104.

Winner: Ben Rothwell, TKO, RD 3

Patrick Mullin: Ben Rothwell is a double tough individual, but this is more of a gimmie than people think. 30 career victories is an impressive number, but a good majority of those wins came against guys now fighting at 205 and guys he's beaten more than once. He's going to have a vast experience edge over Cain, but thats the only thing I ca say that could possibly lead to a win for him. Velasquez is no power hitter, but he's a heavyweight version of Clay Guida who is going to stay on Rothwell every minute and put in a workman-like performance to make his case for a title shot in his next fight.

Winner: Cain Velasquez, Unanimous Decision.

Jonathan Solomon: This heavyweight battle may have title implications in the near future (holy crap, imagine the wrestling war if Velasquez were to fight Lesnar). Cain Velasquez is one of the rising heavyweights with tremendous wrestling and power in his punches. Just as he did with his last fight (a win over Cheick Kongo), this will be another step up in competition for the young buck. Ben Rothwell is a veteran of the sport with some 30 fights to his record. He may not have the sheer power that Velasquez does, but there is no doubt he is technically more sound in more areas of the sport. Can Velasquez bully his way to victory as he did against Kongo? Rothwell may be fighting most of the contest from his back, so we shall see how good his ground game really is. Velasquez could not finish Kongo so I won't pick him to win in that fashion. Velasquez will have to go fifteen minutes without making a mistake against Rothwell, I'm not sure he can do that.

Winner: Ben Rothwell, Submission, Round 3.

Samer Kadi: People have been too harsh on Velasquez since the Kongo fight, which ironically was the biggest win of his career. The critics focused on his inability to finish the fight despite landing a gazillion clean shots on the ground (which is fair and warranted) and what they labelled as a weak chin, which is absolutely ridiculous. Cain took some serious leather by one of the best strikers and hardest punchers in the division, and wasn't even fully knocked down. He was rocked but recovered immediately. With that said, I thought Cain's striking defense, as well as the absence of a killer instinct was really surprising. Rothwell, despite being reasonably well rounded lacks a go-to weapon he could rely on. He's good everywhere but excellent nowhere. He showed tremendous chin in the Arlovski fight as he took numerous shots before eventually crumbling in the third round. Given that Cain was unable to put Kongo away, I doubt he's going to be able to finish Big Ben. Velasquez still has room for improvement and he does possess the right attitude so expect to see him rectify some of his previous mistakes in this fight, as he dominates Rothwell en route to a decision.

Winner: Cain Velasquez, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: Ben Rothwell's best chance at winning this fight is to catch Cain early much like Cheick Kongo did at UFC 99. Rothwell doesn't have the wrestling to prevent Cain from putting him down, he doesn't have the submissions to catch Cain off his back, and he doesn't have the cardio to keep up with Cain's pace. But he does have the power to catch Cain on the feet and put him out. Unfortunately for him I think we'll see a much better Cain Velasquez this Saturday and one that wont just stand in front of Rothwell like he did against Kongo. I don't know if Cain will finish Rothwell because he seems to lack natural power but I do think he'll dominate Rothwell on the ground.

Winner: Cain Velasquez, Decision

---

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout: Lyoto Machida(c) vs. Mauricio Rua


Jeffrey Harris: I think Machida is definitely a stud and a fantastic fighter. But right now, I'm sick of the mystique being built around him. Yeah I think he's awesome, but sometimes people and it fighters themselves fall into this trap of buying into the hype and mystique of fighters being unbeatable. No fighter is unbeatable. For Shogun's sake, I hope he believes he can beat Machida. Shogun's the +350 underdog . . . so I'm going for the underdog. Not sure how though, and I'm not sure it will be about patience either.

Winner: Shogun, Sub, RD 3

Daniel Bonnizzio: Will mythology hold up as a Shogun warrior takes on a beastly Dragon? Shogun's strengths are going to be his weaknesses here as he likes to press the action hard and in flurries with no real coordination in his technique, something Lyoto likes to exploit. Machida is going to be content to sit back and wait for Shogun to tire out by taking him into the championship rounds then use that aggressiveness against him as he uses his pinpoint striking en route to a very late stoppage, almost a decision. Although I hate to say it we may see Machida go back to some of his 'boring' ways to secure his first title defense here.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, RD 5

Patrick Mullin: If you really want to see what I think of this fight read my column. Here's what I'll say for this piece though. Shogun has virtually no shot of winning here. He's tailor made for Machida. I went into detail on what he has to due in the The Blueprint(which has now been stolen by those bastards at Zuffa), and I don't think he has any chance of doing it.

Winner: AND STILL, UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

Jonathan Solomon: I do think this match-up is exactly what Lyoto Machida loves, an aggressive striker who comes forward to throw big shots. However, I will pick the upset because crazier things have happened. Shogun Rua should be able to work the clinch at some point in the fight, even though it is difficult to think anyone can hurt Machida. It's crazy how nobody has wrecked Machida yet, nor gotten close to doing so. I will be pulling for the upset here because Shogun Rua, when he is on the top of his game, is as close to the best as there is. Sure, Machida is the best, but will he be able to make another elite fighter look like a fool again? For the first time, Machida will be hurt by someone stepping forward and throwing knees, kicks and punches. Mark my words, Shogun's clinch work will have a BIG impact in this fight.

Winner: Your NEW UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Mauricio Shogun Rua, TKO, Round 2

Samer Kadi: Both these fighters need no introduction. For Shogun to win, he needs to fight the perfect fight and implement the perfect strategy. What's the perfect strategy to beat The Dragon? No one knows yet. But I feel Shogun's best chance is to keep Machida guessing. Shogun is a very versatile fighter and he should use that versatility if he plans on taking home the belt. Maybe attempting to strike with Machida (albeit cautiously) for a round, going for a takedown in the second or even pulling guard. Although he needs to make sure not to over-commit or he'll find himself staring at the ceiling. He's good at waiting for his opponent to make his move before going for a takedown (shooting from distance is almost a lost cause due to his mediocre wrestling). But doing that against Chuck Liddell is one thing, and doing it against Machida is another. Machida forced Rashad to fight his fight, which is something Shogun absolutely needs to avoid. For Rua to stand a chance, he needs to fight on his terms: Keep distance, throw leg kicks, get out quickly and wait for a takedown opportunity. If the fight goes into the championship rounds, Lyoto will hold the advantage due to Shogun's cardio issues. Machida for his part needs to fight his game, but should be careful if he goes to the ground with Shogun, particularly with Shogun on the bottom. Machida can get sloppy with his ground and pound and Shogun is extremely talented on the mat and could capitalize. With all that said, there are just too many ifs and buts when it comes to Shogun's chances. The era of Machida is just getting started, but I'll be delighted if proven wrong.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Round 2.

Jeremy Lambert: The countdown show really sold me on "Shogun" Rua possible winning this fight until the end of the segment when I found out that Machida is training with MONKEYS in a JUNGLE. How can anyone dislike this man? It's really a perfect match up for Machida because he thrives against aggressive strikers and Rua is one of the more aggressive strikers in MMA. Rua's biggest advantage will be in the clinch, which is where Tito Ortiz had moderate success but Machida is sneaky strong on the inside. If Rua can get inside and wear down Machida with knees then maybe he can put Machida away late. Of course it's easier said than done getting inside on Machida. Rua has to make this a dirty fight. He can't stay on the feet and chase Machida because he'll end up like Thiago Silva or Rashad Evans. On the ground Rua has the advantage but this fight isn't hitting the ground unless someone gets dropped as I doubt Machida wants to be in Rua's guard and I doubt Rua's wrestling is good enough to put Machida on his back. Any mistake that Rua makes, even if it's just one, Machida will exploit it and take advantage of it.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Round Three

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