The Greatest MMA News Column 10.27.09: Looking Ahead

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 10.27.2009

411's Dan Plunkett takes a look at the light heavyweight and heavyweight title pictures, thoughts on DREAM. 12 (with fight videos!), the incompetence of Cecil Peoples, and much more!

I'll assume you're as sick as talking about the Machida/Shogun decision as I am, so I'll get this out of the way. I thought Shogun won the fight. The fight was close, neither fighter dominated. There were a couple of rounds that were razor thin; ultimately the judges gave those rounds and another to Machida, thus earning him the decision. So while I don't agree with the decision, it wasn't the worst we've ever seen. Hell, it's not even the worst this month. I think there will be an immediate rematch, but sadly Machida already saw Shogun's best game plan, so it's a bit unfair.

So let's get to the column….

Light Heavyweight Title Picture

After every big fight in a division that's as crowded at the top as light heavyweight I like to speculate on what's next. However, it looks like my job of finding the next light heavyweight title contender has already been done as it looks as though Shogun Rua will get an immediate rematch with Lyoto Machida.

I think Shogun earned a rematch with Lyoto. Then again I also thought Rampage earned a rematch with Forrest Griffin, though that probably would have taken place had it not been for Rampage's legal issues. So where does this leave the winners of the big light heavyweight fights taking place in a couple of months? Just for the hell of it, here's a list of the top contenders:

Champion: Lyoto Machida

1. Shogun Rua
2. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (he'll be back)
3. Rashad Evans
4. Randy Couture
5. Thiago Silva

Despite not having fought at light heavyweight since 2006, Couture is the #4 contender. This isn't necessarily a list of who deserves the title shot more, but more of a list of how close they are to a title shot in the UFC's eyes.

For instance, should Randy Couture defeat Brandon Vera at UFC 105, I expect him to be second in line for a title shot. Who wouldn't want to see Captain America take a shot at dethroning the undefeated champion? Should Shogun beat Machida in the rematch, Anderson Silva would catapult up this list, possibly as high as the #1 or #2 spot. When Rampage decides to come back to the UFC, his first fight will most likely be against Rashad Evans. That would leave time for Couture, Anderson Silva, or possibly others to get title shots.

Say the horrible (from money standpoint) happens for the UFC and Thiago Silva, Brandon Vera, and Lyoto Machida win their upcoming fights. Unless Rampage Jackson comes back and is given an immediate title shot, it could be Brandon Vera getting the title shot. I think if that is the case the UFC will rush Tito Ortiz into a title shot should he defeat Forrest Griffin in the main event of UFC 106, but there's a good chance he won't beat Forrest. Thankfully for the UFC, Vera's next fight is on free TV, so they'll get a chance to make him known to the casual fans.

Best case scenario for the UFC is Machida gets his unbeatable reputation back in the Shogun rematch; Couture beats Vera, Evans knocks out Silva, and Rampage comes back. Machida vs. Couture would be a very big fight, as would Rampage vs. Evans. So they'd get two big fights that can headline events.

If Shogun beats Machida, I'd have less interest in seeing Randy fight for the title so soon. I would put Shogun up against Anderson Silva in his first defense. Despite Anderson's drawing troubles in the past, I think that would be a solid drawing fight. There seems to be interest in Anderson when he's fighting in the light heavyweight division, especially against top guys. Champion vs. Champion, with the challenger being arguably the most dominant fighter in UFC history is very appealing. Plus, with Anderson and Machida being such good friends, there's a revenge angle that could be used.

Now onto a bigger, yet less complicated division…

Heavyweight Title Picture

Two big things happened in the UFC heavyweight division this week:

1. Cain Velasquez dominated Ben Rothwell and stopped him in the second round.
2. Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin was postponed until UFC 108.

Firstly, Cain Velasquez made a major statement with his win on Saturday. Ben Rothwell is no joke; in the last four years prior to the bout his only loss was to Andrei Arlovski. Cain rag-dolled Rothwell for six minutes and even though the timing of the stoppage was poor, Rothwell wasn't going to make it much longer anyway. Velasquez was relentless in his attack, but I did notice that it seems to be harder for him to stop an opponent with strikes than other top heavyweights, probably because he isn't quite as big as them.

Where does this put Velasquez on the list of contenders? Here is your answer:

Champion: Brock Lesnar

1. Shane Carwin
2. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira
3. Cain Velasquez
4. Junior dos Santos
5. Frank Mir

So he's pretty much right where he is before. It's certainly not his fault that he didn't move ahead of Minotauro, it's just that Minotauro's extremely impressive win over Couture was keeping him in that spot no matter what Velasquez did.

Best case scenario for the UFC: Lesnar beats Carwin; they play up that Minotauro is "unfinishable" when healthy to promote Lesnar vs. Minotauro; Velasquez wins his next fight convincingly, Mir finishes Kongo, then dos Santos knocks out Gabriel Gonzaga. There would be a ton of options for the UFC if this happened, all of which would be money makers.

Worst case scenario: Carwin beats Lesnar, and Velasquez and dos Santos lose. I don't see much downside to whatever the result is of Mir vs. Kongo, as the UFC has been looking to push Kongo as a monster for quite some time now. I don't think either man winning would necessarily be a bad thing, but I'm sure the UFC would prefer Mir due to the rematch options against Minotauro and Lesnar.

I think things will fall closer to the best case scenario.

Just for the hell of it, here are the contender rankings for all UFC divisions. If they're well liked maybe I'll keep them going.

Middleweight Champion: Anderson Silva

1. Vitor Belfort
2. Dan Henderson
3. Nate Marquardt
4. Wanderlei Silva
5. Chael Sonnen

Welterweight Champion: Georges St. Pierre

1. Mike Swick
2. Dan Hardy (too high; only #2 because UFC is rushing him into #1 contender fight)
3. Jon Fitch
4. Paul Daley
5. Thiago Alves

Lightweight Champion: BJ Penn

1. Diego Sanchez
2. Gray Maynard
3. Frankie Edgar
4. Tyson Griffin
5. Kenny Florian

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Don Frye (the man) and "Rowdy" Roddy Piper will be appearing on It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia this Thursday.

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DREAM Thoughts



-Sakuraba is still amazing. He should have stopped fighting a long time ago (I thought he should have after losing to Wanderlei for the third time), but Kazushi Sakuraba never ceases to amaze me. On Saturday, Sakuraba took on Zelg Galesic, a dangerous striker that was a semifinalist in the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix. As you can see in the video (watch it, that's what it's there for), Sakuraba seemingly overcommitted to a foot lock, and it looked like he was knocked out. It got to the point where I was yelling at the referee (who blatantly ignored me, though in fairness I was watching on my computer the day after the event happened) to stop the fight. Then by some miracle Sakuraba is not knocked out and rolls for the fight ending kneebar. That shows you where persistence gets you kids, just ask Gegard Mousasi….


He's gonna get through one of these days. You just watch.



- Alistair Overeem needs to defend his Strikeforce title. This is getting ridiculous. Besides nearly jumping out of the cage, I wasn't really impressed by Alistair Overeem's performance. Then again, he could have submitted him with a boston crab and I wouldn't have been impressed (OK, that's a lie, but still). Overeem needs to go to Strikeforce and start fighting legitimate top heavyweights. It seems like he only got half of that message though:
"I want you to write this down: Alistair Overeem wants to fight Fedor, April 2010. So write that down. (Asked where he wants the fight to take place) I don't care. Maybe in DREAM, maybe in Strikeforce. I don't care — rather in DREAM but Strikeforce is also OK."
Why not in Strikeforce? I'll be honest; there have been many, including myself that have questioned whether Overeem is using performance enhancing drugs. Some people believe the lack of drug testing keeps him fighting overseas while his Strikeforce belt collects dust. I don't see why he would prefer to fight Fedor in DREAM, maybe the pay is better? Or maybe those people questioning the legitimacy of his physique are correct, and it hasn't been eating horse meat that made Alistair blow up. I can't lie though, I'd love to see Fedor vs. Overeem in DREAM or Strikeforce.


- In case you have yet to realize it, Marius Zaromskis is awesome. Three fights. Three head kick knockouts. That's an incredible run. Head kick knockouts are among my favorite ways to see a fight ended, and Marius Zaromskis is becoming a master of the technique. The DREAM Welterweight Champion is one of the most exciting fighters in the sport. I can guarantee you I won't miss another one of his fights for a long time.

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The Incompetence of Cecil Peoples

I know I said in the beginning of the column that I didn't really want to write about the Machida/Shogun decision. That however, was before I saw this quote:

"First of all what you need to understand is that from where the judges are sitting, we get to see things that the fans at home may miss. Mauricio Rua was being aggressive but it wasn't effective aggressiveness which is what we as the judges look for when scoring a fight. The way I saw it, Lyoto was landing the more cleaner and damaging strikes throughout the fight - if you take a look at the judging criteria clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed. Although Rua threw a lot of low kicks they were not as damaging as Lyoto's diverse attack in the earlier rounds which is why I scored the first three rounds for Machida. You have to keep in mind we always the favor the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don't do that."

Those are the words of the most notorious judge in the history of our young sport, Cecil Peoples.



As you can probably tell, I have a big problem with the bolded portion of the quote. Of all the stupid things Mr. Peoples could possibly say, he says leg kicks don't finish fights. Not only do leg kicks in fact finish fights, they are very useful.

If you recall at UFC 86, one of Forrest Griffin's biggest weapons against Quinton Jackson was his leg kicks. In round two, Griffin injured Rampage's leg so bad that he couldn't stand on it. As a result of the leg kicks, Forrest dominated the round and two of the judges scored the round 10-8. It's very possible that leg kicks can knock a fighter down, which in my opinion make them just as valuable, if not more so, than your typical knockdown. So clearly leg kicks are very important in some fights; they do damage.

As for leg kicks not finishing fights, is Cecil completely ignorant about the sport he judges? At UFC 80, Antoni Hardonk finished a fight with leg kicks. How long did the fight last? 17 seconds. This year at UFC 96, Brandon Vera battered Michael Patt with leg kicks that forced a stoppage in the second round. To say leg kicks don't finish fights is just ridiculous.




That is it for this week. Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed it. Feel free to leave a comment, or email me here. Until next week…


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