Cardio Freak MMA News Report 11.02.09: Things Change But Stay The Same
Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 11.02.2009
A preview of Strikeforce on CBS, featuring a look at Fedor vs. Rogers and why this show isn't so different from the last time MMA was on CBS. Plus thoughts on the UFC 106 changes, Strikeforce adding talent and more. It's healthier than Brock Lesnar, it's Cardio Freak!
Headline News
The last time MMA was on CBS, a white guy knocked out a black guy in 14 seconds and effectively killed the organization. Things will likely be different this time. Maybe.
MMA is back on CBS this Saturday for the first time in over year. Gone from the headlining position is a youtube internet sensation the company has put all their faith in despite being unproven. In his place a hardcore fan favorite with little to prove but is the meal ticket for a company trying to ride the success of anyone dumb enough to partner with them. His scheduled opponent isn't a MMA legend living on past glory who should get KO'd in 30 seconds. Instead it's an unproven KO artist trying to make a name for himself whose best shot at winning is by KO in 30 seconds.
Things will be different though. I swear.
Undefeated, often disputed best fighter in the world, Fedor (Emelianenko) Presented by M-1 Global will take on undefeated, relatively unproved, Brett Rogers in the main event of Strikeforce's CBS debut.
This fight isn't tough to break down or figure out. One fighter is well rounded and could win by one punch KO, a flurry of heavy punches, a smooth armbar from his back, a strong kimura on top, or a dominating decision. The other fighter has one main strength, explosive and powerful striking, and is unproven everywhere else.
Brett Rogers best chance at winning this fight is to keep things standing. Rogers' isn't a great striker but he does have one punch power. He doesn't really mix up his striking, throwing mainly a simple one-two combination, sometimes finishing with a right uppercut instead of a right straight. It's nothing flashy but it's been effective thus far in his career. And really that simple combo is the perfect combination against Fedor's striking. Fedor's main tool on his feet is winging punches with a lot of power. The perfect counter to those wide loopy punches is nice straight punches right down the pipe. Before he went all plane crash on everyone, Andrei Arlovski was having success throwing a simple one-two combination and tagging Fedor with the straight right. Rogers isn't going to be stupid enough to throw a flying knee like Arlovski because, one, he saw what happened to Arlovski and two, I'm not sure he can throw a flying knee.
Fedor mainly uses his striking as a way to get inside and clinch. He throws the looping left, clinches, and works from there. Being a world champion in sambo, he's obviously strong in the clinch and that's the position he uses to get the fight to the ground. Rogers hasn't been in the clinch often but against "Abongo" Humphrey he showed off good strength and takedown defense. Of course he was much bigger than Humphrey and Humphrey isn't a world champion in sambo. Needless to say, Rogers will have a tougher time staying on his feet against Fedor than he did against Humphrey.
On the ground Rogers is completely unproven. If he's ever been on his back, it certainly hasn't been for a long period of time and it certainly hasn't been against the most accurate and power ground striker in MMA history. Maybe Rogers will throw up his legs, catch Fedor in a triangle choke, and shock the world. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it. If it hits the ground, whether Fedor is on top or on his back, he has the advantage. On top he's going to either pound on Rogers until the ref stops it or lock in a kimura and force Rogers to tap out. If he's on his back, he'll either pull off his usual armbar or sweep into a better position.
Another area where Rogers is unproven is his cardio. He's never been past the two minute mark of the second round, which means he's never fought longer than seven minutes. Of his ten wins, five (possibly six) have come within the first two minutes of the fight. Fedor isn't a cardio freak but we do know that he can go 15 minutes without showing any major signs of fatigue.
We'll probably know the outcome of this fight within the first two minutes but for those two minutes, we'll watch in excitement to see if Brett Rogers can pull off arguably the biggest upset in MMA history.
It should be noted that I will be attending this show and bringing the Cardio Freak Curse with me. I've been to three MMA events (UFC 88, EliteXC: Heat, UFC 101) and at all three events the biggest star in the building (Chuck Liddell, Kimbo Slice, Forrest Griffin) got knocked out. It may not be Brett Rogers beating Fedor, it might just be the Cardio Freak Curse.
The co-main event of the evening is a Middleweight title fight between Jason Miller and Jake Shields.
Jason Miller is a classic example of a fighter who gets by a lot on his personality more than skill. Don't get me wrong, Miller is a very skilled fighter but he's not as good as the publicity he gets. Jake Shields on the other hand is a very skilled fighter who doesn't get nearly the publicity he should because he personality is rather bland.
One the feet Miller is the better striker although he lacks power. Jake Shields usually looks uncomfortable on his feet although in the Robbie Lawler fight, while he still looked uncomfortable, he did a great job keeping Lawler at bay with body kicks. I don't expect Shields to do much of that in this fight. He'll likely be much more inviting to Miller's strikes because that will allow him to clinch and work from there. Miller will be the one who will want to control the distance because he wants to keep things on the feet.
Like every Jake Shields fights, he'll be looking to get things to the ground quickly. He has a quick single on the lead leg and then looks to drag things to the ground from there. Miller can hold his own on the ground but Shields is arguably one of the best MMA grapplers in the sport. As good as Miller is on the ground, "Jacare" Souza was able to get him down and control him for 15 minutes. My gut feeling is that if "Jacare" could get Miller down and control him then Shields, who is a better wrestler and arguably better MMA grappler than Souza, should be able to do the same thing.
This fight has all the makings of going 25 minutes.
Gegard Mousasi returns to Strikeforce after capturing the Light Heavyweight title from Renato Sobral. You would think he would be defending the Light Heavyweight title but that makes too much sense so of course he's in a non-title fight against Sokoudjou. This fight was originally scheduled to take place in DREAM as part of their Super Hulk tournament but Mousasi dropped out with an injury.
The book on Sokoudjou is pretty simple. Survive the early flurry and you'll be fine. Sokoudjou has explosive striking and power for about the first three minutes and then he gasses and isn't the same fighter. As long as Mousasi survives that initial rush then he'll win this fight. He's a better striker than Sokoudjou and he's better on the ground. Sokoudjou might be well advised to fight most of this fight in the clinch, where he should have a strength and technique advantage given his size and judo background. I doubt he does that though, probably because he'll be too gassed to clinch when he should and Mousasi will end up taking him down or pulling guard.
Like the main event, we'll likely know the outcome of this fight within the first three minutes but unlike the main event, we won't watch with as much excitement.
The opening bout of the night is a Heavyweight fight between the first and last EliteXC Heavyweight champion, Antonio Silva, taking on the man still waiting for his UFC Heavyweight title shot, Fabricio Werdum.
I was a big believer in Silva before he got busted for steroids, thinking he had the tools to be a top Heavyweight in the sport. I still have that same belief although getting busted for steroids is a red flag when looking at a fighters future.
This is pretty much a striker vs. grappler fight. Silva will want to keep things on the feet and use his muy-thai skills while Werdum will want to drag things down and work for submissions. In this fight I favor the striker because Silva is no slouch on the ground either and I have a tough time believing Werdum will be able to get Silva to the ground. If it stays standing, Silva is going to chop down Werdum with leg kicks and then show off his power in his hands.
Official Predictions:
*Fedor Emelianenko to defeat Brett Rogers by Submission in Round One
*Jake Shields to defeat Jason Miller by Decision
*Gegard Mousasi to defeat Sokoudjou by TKO in Round Two
*Antonio Silva to defeat Fabricio Werdum by TKO in Round One
Major UFC/WEC News
On October 26 Yahoo reported that Brock Lesnar had to pull out of his UFC 106 fight with Shane Carwin due to a severe case of the flu. The fight has since been rescheduled for UFC 108 on January 2nd.
This sad part about this is that I spent most of my day last Monday watching The Ultimate Fighter marathon on Spike and during every commercial break they aired a video promo for UFC 106. Obviously UFC/Spike had no idea Lesnar was going to pull out of the fight on that day but it just sucks for them that they aired all those promos and now they're essentially useless. Of course why they were airing promos for UFC 106 when UFC 105 is their next event and it's on SpikeTV is beyond me.
This is obviously big news but there's not much to comment on. They're still going to fight, it's now at a later date. Nothing really changes between the two except they now have more time to prepare for each other, which, given their fighting styles, doesn't hurt either fighter but doesn't really benefit either fighter.
The biggest blow here is to UFC PPV as I'm sure they were banking on UFC 106 to break the million buy mark. With Lesnar vs. Carwin now off, I doubt that the Ortiz vs. Griffin rematch will be enough to break one million buys. I still expect this show to do very well on PPV considering they should push this event hard during UFC 105 and there's a lot of intrigue in the return of Tito Ortiz, the bounce back of Forrest Griffin, and the rematch aspect of the fight.
On October 28 Josh Koscheck tweeted that he vs. Anthony Johnson will serve as the co-main event for UFC 106.
Anthony Johnson's punishment for missing weight? A co-main event fight against one of the more well known Welterweight's in the division. This also a step up for Koscheck as well as he was scheduled to face Mike Pierce, a good fighter coming of a big win over Brock Larson but not well known, and now he's facing a known fighter coming off a victory that people actually saw.
This is a big fight for Koscheck and that's not just because Johnson could fight at 205 if he wanted to. It seems as if UFC was trying to protect Koscheck a bit with the Pierce fight but this certainly isn't a protection fight. Johnson is an explosive striker with a wrestling background who could give Koscheck a load of trouble. In his more recent fights Koscheck has been using his improved striking (code for "used to suck, now just mediocre") to defeat his opponents but outside of the Thiago Alves fight he's never faced a powerful and explosive striker. Koscheck has power of his own but his striking is predictable and his striking defense isn't so hot. If he tries to stand with Johnson, it's very likely that he'll get knocked out.
This fight should come down to wrestling. Outside of St. Pierre, Josh Koscheck has the best wrestling in the division. When he wants to take his opponent down, he usually can. He had trouble taking down Thiago Alves but you have to give him a pass on that fight because he took it on short notice. Even though Johnson has a wrestling background, I think that if Koscheck wants to put Johnson on his back, he can. It's not going to be easy though because of Johnson's wrestling background and size but Koscheck has an explosive and powerful shot to counter that.
The winner of this fight should be one fight away from a title shot and you could even make the case that the winner of Koscheck/Johnson vs. St. Pierre is more interesting than the winner of Swick/Hardy vs. St. Pierre.
Minor UFC/WEC News
On October 31 The NWITimes reported that Kimbo Slice will fight Houston Alexander at The Ultimate Finale 10.
Everyone can now stop watching The Ultimate Fighter 10 because Kimbo Slice isn't coming back.
I still think it's unfair for Kimbo to fight a known UFC fighter over one of his housemates but at least he's fighting on the Finale show and not on PPV. My opinion on this fight hasn't changed from when it was rumored a few weeks ago. Whoever lands the first clean shot will likely win the fight.
Let me use this space to talk a bit about this season of The Ultimate Fighter. After watching Matt Mitrone vs. Scott Junk, I became convinced that every fight this season has been put in slow motion. That's the only logical explanation for some of these fights going the way they have. Mitrone vs. Junk was hyped as one of the best fights of the season and if that's one of the best fights then I think from now on I'm just going to turn off the show right before the fight starts. Also, is it just me or does Matt Mitrone remind anyone else of Frank Mir?
Also after watching the show I've become a big fan of Rashad Evans. I've never really liked Evans because his personality seemed a bit forced and I can never forgive him for breaking my heart at UFC 88. But I've turned the corner on him after watching TUF. He's doing a good job with all the fighters, actually caring about his team and even Jackson's team, he's not coming across as forced as he usually does, and he's just been enjoyable to watch. Verbally I think he's gotten the better of Jackson in all of their sparring sessions and his promo on Matt Mitrone from this past episode was classic stuff. I'll never hate on Rashad Evans again because I'm afraid he'll break his shoe off in my mother fuckin ass.
On October 30 Fanhouse reported that Thiago Aves had to drop out of his UFC 107 fight against Jon Fitch with a knee injury. On October 31 Multiple Outlets reported that Mike Pierce would replace Alves against Fitch.
A hell of a roller coaster ride for Jon Fitch. He went from fighting relatively known Ricardo Almeida to fighting Thiago Alves for the right to be called the second best Welterweight in the world to now fighting an unknown in Mike Pierce.
This is a big chance for Mike Pierce. He was pretty much booked to lose against Brock Larson but he shocked most by defeating him and now he has a chance to shock even more people by defeating Jon Fitch. Both fighters are wrestlers by trade, which usually means they'll turn things into a striking contest but that's no the Jon Fitch way. Fitch will stick to his wrestling guns no matter what and although that make him a boring fighter, it also makes him a smart fighter. I like Fitch in this fight because he's not someone who just flakes against lower competition, he just doesn't beat them as impressively as he should.
Major Strikeforce/Miscellaneous News
On October 31 Strikeforce announced that they signed DREAM Welterweight champion Marius Zaromskis to a multi-fight deal.
Not a big shock really considering the working relationship between Strikeforce and DREAM.
The addition of Zaromskis adds some much needed depth to the Strikeforce Welterweight division, which is really just Nick Diaz, Jay Hieron, and possibly Jake Shields. I assume Zaromskis will have one Strikeforce fight and then challenge the Diaz vs. Hieron winner for the Strikeforce Welterweight title. For those who haven't seen Zaromskis fight, just know he's won his last three fights via head kick and I've dubbed him "The English Prime Cro Cop". He's a hell of a striker, an exciting fighter, and it should be a treat to watch him fight on US soil.
No More News
That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a review of Strikeforce on CBS and a preview of UFC 105. Take care everyone.
Dude, Jeremy, I'm right there with you. Meathead speaks like Frank Mir. I picked up on it too. They have a similar voice, but its really about the pausing and pace. I thought others would think I'm crazy.
Posted By: Guest#8722 (Guest) on November 02, 2009 at 09:15 AM
Fedor does have an 'L' on his record. Regardless if you agree with the decision in the fight.
Posted By: Stinkylicious (Guest) on November 02, 2009 at 09:43 AM
I don't want to like Rashad but he is growing on me. I don't like the way he acts during fights (grabbing his nipples, running around like a monkey and he just seems like a cocky a$$ to me) but TUF is showing me he is different than that. I think he is oficially off of my least liked fighters list for now.
Posted By: Brian (Guest) on November 02, 2009 at 11:56 AM
I'm also jumping on the "eh, Rashad ain't as bad as I thought he was" wagon.
Used to hate him, now I sorta like him. I wish he wasn't such an ass during his fights, but I guess that's just his style. Going off the show, he's definitely a smart guy with a good eye for the sport, and you can tell he does actually give a crap about his guys and his team and how they do (as opposed to Rampage who according to himself 'isn't a coach').
This season has really changed my thoughts on both fighters. Used to hate Rashad and love Rampage; I won't say they've flip-flopped, but I've lost a lot of respect for Rampage based off his antics, then leaving, and now trashing the UFC on his blog and whining about it.
Posted By: Nick (Guest) on November 02, 2009 at 02:04 PM
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