411's Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Roundtable Preview

Posted by Larry Csonka on 11.06.2009

MMA returns to live broadcast television this Saturday with the biggest card in the young history of the Strikeforce organization! The greatest of all time Fedor Emelianenko makes his Strikeforce debut, the middleweight championship is decided, and two fights with major repercussions in the Strikeforce organization are also on tap!


Thanks to Patrick Mullin for putting the roundtable together.

WELCOME:
Welcome back to another edition of the 411 MMA Roundtable Preview. Personally I think Scott Coker owes us some money because we've been doing a helluva job promoting Saturday's Strikeforce card, while I don't think the organization itself has. Some of you might not even realize there's a fight card this Saturday on CBS. But there is, and here's where you'll find the best preview for it on the net.


THE STAFF:
Jonathan Solomon: He doesn't rank you, you don't matter

Patrick Mullin: The "TUF"fest guy you know

Dan Plunkett: The Greatest MMA News Reporter…seriously

Jeremy Lambert: Has a gas tank that makes Velasquez look like Sokoudjou

Bill Wannop: Eat your hearts out Ted & Cody, this man is The Legacy

Samer Kadi: He's naked and choking from the rear…great contortionist

Daniel Bonnizzio: 411's answer to Brock Lesnar's rapid rise to success

Jeffrey Harris: Reports place him at various bridges with a Ninja in tow

Todd Bergman: Has more tap outs to his name than Fedor

Scott Kuczkowski: He's the Kuch, don't ask questions






STRIKEFORCE: FEDOR VS. ROGERS BOUTS

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT: Fabricio Werdum (12-4) vs. Antonio Silva (13-1)
Daniel Bonnizzio: Thought both men are heavyweights and both are rather well-rounded, Fabricio Werdum has the far and away advantage grappling so Bigfoot is probably going to try and keep it standing where he looks to have the advantage. I could see him going for the TKO or trying to outpoint Fabricio to a decision, and Fabricio does not like decisions.

Winner: Antonio Silva, Decision


Jonathan Solomon: The return of Big Foot! He's big, he's powerful but he is not half the grappler Fabricio Werdum is. Silva is back after a suspension-induced stay of Japan and he will try to start where he left off. Fabricio Werdum may be one of the best heavyweight grapplers in the sport and frankly, the only thing that may stop him from ending the fight via submission is Silva's size. However, that does mean there is only more limb to go around, right? Silva's chance to win this fight will be with his fists as he takes on his stiffest challenge to date. For my tastes, Werdum is too good on the ground and too much of a veteran to be caught against Silva on the feet.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, Round 2.


Patrick Mullin: Antonio Silva has looked very impressive while serving a U.S. suspension. In his last fight Fabricio Werdum had a little more trouble than expected with Mike Kyle before submitting him in the first round. I think this one goes to the ground and I just can't see Silva winning the fight there.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, Round Two.


Dan Plunkett: The winner of this fight could very well take on the winner of the main event. Werdum should look to take this one to the ground, while Bigfoot will look to get the KO. I think Werdum will get this one to the ground at some point and will finish it from there.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, Round 2


Jeffrey Harris: I expect this fight to be over quickly with a submission win for Werdum. Werdum looked in much better shape and more motivated in his last fight. If he stays clear of Silva's striking, I think he has this locked up.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, RD 1


Todd Bergman: I still haven't seen enough positive things from Werdum to think that he should be the favorite here. I also haven't seen anything about Silva's license being approved yet, so there's always a chance that this fight won't happen. If it does happen, I think that Werdum is in trouble. Werdum was bailed out in his last fight because his opponent had little skills on the ground. Silva isn't great on the ground either, but his ability to keep the fight standing will win him this bout. Werdum won't be able to stand with Silva in this fight. His chin and lack of dominating cardio just won't allow it. Silva makes a big splash on network TV as he knocks out the former PRIDE and UFC veteran.

Winner: Big Foot Silva, KO, round 1


Samer Kadi: Before being knocked out by Junior Dos Santos, Werdum was easily considered one of the top 10 heavyweights in the world. He rebounded well with a first round submission against an overmatched Mike Kyle. While he doesn't get too much respect these days, Werdum has fought – and more often than not defeated – some serious competition in his career. Silva hasn't fought nearly the same level of competition. He's a good striker with a size that would give anyone a hard time. Being from Brazil, he obviously can hold his own on the ground (those guys are born with a purple belt), but Werdum is a multiple time BJJ world champion. After surviving the striking of Sergei Kharitov, Aleksander Emelianenko, Gabriel Gonzaga and Brandon Vera, I don't think Werdum will have too much trouble avoiding Silva's haymakers. I see Werdum taking the fight to the ground where he will utilize his world class Jiu-Jitsu skills to get the submission.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, Round 2.


Jeremy Lambert: In my mind this is the toughest fight to call. Both guys are good on the ground but Werdum has, as Joe Rogan likes to say, "top of the food chain jiu-jitsu" while Silva is just good. Werdum has improved striking (code for "now mediocre") while Silva is a very good technical striker with a lot of power. Although Silva should be able to hold his own on the ground, I don't think he wants any part of Werdum's grappling and we've seen that Werdum can be rocked on the feet. I think Silva is good enough to keep it standing and if that's the case, he should be able to score the TKO victory.

Winner: Antonio Silva, TKO, Round One


Bill Wannop: Ahhh a match up of two athletes who get more credit then they deserve in the world of MMA. I don't know why but Werdum has always rubbed me the wrong way and for some strange reason it always pleases me when he gets KTFO, so if Big Foot can keep it standing I may be a happy man

Winner:Silva, KO, Rd 2



The staff calls it a draw 5-5.

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT: Gegard Mousasi (26-2) vs. Sokoudjou (7-4)
Bill Wannop: This fight is interesting in that we get another fighter who was over hyped, got exposed and is now trying to work his way back up in Sokoudjou, and a fighter who is finally getting his well deserved exposure to North American audiences. In this fight I see it playing out similar to Sokoudjou's fight with Cane, in that he will come out strong early then tire out exposing himself to the KO from Mousasi.

Winner:Mousasi, KO, Rd 2


Jeremy Lambert: This fight is a lot like the main event. Well rounded fighter vs. explosive striker. The only difference is that we know Sokoudjou lacks cardio and a ground while we just assume that about Brett Rogers. If Sokoudjou catches Mousasi early then he has the power to finish him. But Mousasi is a very accomplished striker, knows the book on Sokoudjou, and likely won't take a risk early. Once this fight passes the three minute mark, it's all downhill for Sokoudjou.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, TKO, Round Two



Samer Kadi: Is there a more promising fighter than Gegard Mousasi at the moment? To keep it short, I think Sokoudjou is really overmatched here. He's always dangerous for the first two minutes or so of any bout, but after that he tends to fade away. Mousasi is a guy who can end the fight anytime, anywhere. He's got more refined striking and to say his ground game is superior would be an understatement. If he stays clear of Sokoudjou's power, he'll come through this one relatively unscathed. After a very short feeling out process, I see Mousasi catching a Sokoudjou body kick and taking the fight to the ground. From there, it's all academic.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, Round 1.


Scott Kuczkowski: This matchup showcases Mousasi, one of the best light heavyweight fighters not yet signed to the UFC; and Sokoudjou, someone who should be thankful he gets to pretend to be relevant for a televised event. Unless Sokoudjou lands the luckiest shot of his life, I see this fight quickly going to the mat where Mousasi will submit him before he even breaks a sweat. Actually, there is a chance Mousasi could go for the TKO win, but I wager he'll go for the submission.

Winner: Mousasi, Submission, Round 1.


Todd Bergman: Forget what you have seen Soku do in the Super Hulk Tournament because that won't transfer over in this fight. Babalu dissected Soku, and Gegard will more than likely follow that strategy here. Soku will be dangerous for the first few minutes before ultimately gassing out. From there it's only a matter of time before Mousasi locks on a deep choke to finish the fight.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, round 1


Jeffrey Harris: Sokoujdou will be lucky if this gets out of the first minute. Sokoudjou ever since his two huge wins over Nogueira and Arona has proven to be a one dimensional fighter that everyone has figured out. Sokoujdou scored a couple wins over some more mediocre level talent and in that in mind, he has not really proven deserving of getting a title shot against Mousasi which some people have questioned. Mousasi takes care of business in the first round.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, TKO, RD 1

Dan Plunkett: I have no idea why this isn't a title fight. Well, I guess it's kinda the finals of the Super Hulk tournament, which Mousasi had to withdraw from due to injury. Sokoudjou still has a lot of potential, but I believe Gegard is better both standing and on the ground. Unless Sokoudjou lands a punch like he did on Minotoro, I see Mousasi taking this.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, Round 2

Patrick Mullin: I really like this fight, probably more than most. Sokoudjou will be the hardest hitter that Gegard has come up against in his young career and I'm interested to see how his beard holds up. Mousasi has a pronounced advantage on the ground but we'll see if Sokoudjou has done anything to better prepare or even avoid going to the ground. In many ways this is a fight reminiscent of the main event in what each man brings to the table and the always present puncher's chance. I know Mousasi is young but I think he fights like a veteran and gets past the early blitzkrieg of offense to take control in round two.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, Round Two.

Jonathan Solomon: Ugh, one of the most physically gifted athletes in the sport is Sokoudjou. It just so happens that he cannot put it all together to make a successful run these days. The last time he did so, PRIDE was still alive. Meanwhile, Gegard Mousasi is considered one of the best MMA fighters in the world these days. Sokoudjou is a great judoka and that training with Team Qwest gives him that wrestling backing. However, Mousasi is such a well rounded fighter it is tough to see him losing. Mousasi can take care of himself on the ground and has trained in Judo since his youth. Mousasi is also a kick boxer with knockout power (ask Babalu). Sokoudjou simply looks listless in some fights and if he comes out with anything less than 100%, this will be a short fight.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, KO, Round 1.


Daniel Bonnizzio: A fight originally scheduled for DREAM.11 in the Super Hulk tournament, now being held with a 205 pound limit in Strikeforce and a non-title fight, this was one of the fights I was looking most forward to at DREAM.11. Both men are legit fighters and both men are riding decent winning streaks, but while Sokodjou has the better judo skills for sure, Gegard is just the more well-rounded fighter and right now I'm hard pressed to pick against the Dreamcatcher. He's going to wait out the initial onslaught on drag it out to the later rounds where he's going to use his superior ground skills to soften him up for a submission.

Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, RD 3



The staff picks Gegard Mousasi 10-0.

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STRIKEFORCE MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE BOUT: Jake Shields (23-4-1) vs. Jason Miller (22-6, 1 NC)
Daniel Bonnizzio: In my personal main event of the night, Mayhem Miller takes on Jake Shields for the vacant Strikeforce Middleweight Championship. Mayhem has shown terrific submission defenses as shown in his fights with renowned grappler Jacare de Souza, but defensive submission skills only get you so far and while he has more than a few submission wins himself, Jake Shields is definitely the better grappler and if it goes to the ground I see Shields winning there. Shields is smart enough to avoid a standup war he knows he may not win, and will take the fight down if it goes down. I see the fight being decided by Shields's superior grappling and taking home the submission W and the belt.

Winner: Jake Shields, Submission, RD 2


Jonathan Solomon: In my mind, this is the most difficult fight to predict. Shields may be the best welterweight grappler and he does not lose much by fighting in the next weight class. His striking skills are adequate but nothing special. Mayhem Miller may not be the best at any facet of the sport, but he is no slouch either. When he sticks to his gameplan, he can force grapplers into fighting a stand-up battle. Shields will look to take the fight to the ground at any cost and do what he does best from then on out. Those Cesar Gracie black belts don't grow on trees, after all. Mayhem will do whatever he can to stay off the mat and turn the fight into a kick boxing match. This fight is set for five rounds and neither man has fought that long but I assume both can handle the extra ten minutes if it should go that long.

Winner: Your NEW Strikeforce Middleweight Champion, Mayhem Miller, Decision.



Patrick Mullin: This is a really interesting fight. While Miller will enjoy a size advantage being the natural middleweight of the two he's not an overwhelmingly sized guy who is going to trouble Jake with size alone. Miller and Shields potentially represent the biggest grappling challenge either man will have ever faced. I think Miller is best served to keep this fight standing, but I don't think he will for whatever reason. When it does go to the ground I feel Jake is the superior grappler and will have the distinct advantage there. Pack a lunch though because I see this one going the distance.

Winner: AND NEW STRIKEFORCE MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPION, Jake Shields, Split Decision.



Dan Plunkett: This is a tough fight to pick. I don't see either man being submitted since both have very good ground games. Miller is the biggest fighter, but I think this will come down to Shields' ability to put Mayhem on his back.

Winner: Jake Shields, Decision



Jeffrey Harris: I'm hoping this will be one of the better fights of the night. Miller's an entertaining personality, but he totally screwed up in his last fight which cost him the title in the fight with Jacare. Shields looked like he was being dominated in the standup in the last fight with Lawler, but he kept calm and got the guillotine choke on the way to the submission win. I expect Shields superior submission and BJJ skills to come through for him again against Mayhem.

Winner: Jake Shields, Submission, RD 2


Todd Bergman: I could honest care less about this fight. I really dislike Mayhem Miller and, while I think that Jake Shields is a very good fighter, I've just never been a fan. This fight all comes down to Miller's ability to stop the takedown, but this has become Miller's Waterloo. Shields will push the pace and will consistently look for submissions. I just don't see Miller landing enough power punches to finish Shields. This one goes to decision and is equally as boring as the GSP vs. Alves fight from UFC 100. Bring on Frank Shamrock for a decent-style grudge match.

Winner: Jake Shields, Decision


Scott Kuczkowski: I like Mayem, but I don't think a flashy entrance will help him in this fight. While Miller is good on the ground, I think we will see exactly how great Shields is during this bout. While I doubt Miller will get finished, I don't see this fight being very close, which probably means Miller will be getting beaten up and defending submissions for the entire fight.

Winner: Shields, Decision.


Samer Kadi: Mayhem is a fairly well rounded fighter but is more comfortable fighting on the ground. He possesses a decent stand up game but doesn't pack up any significant power in his strikes. The problem for him is, Shields, while very uncomfortable on his feet, is a much better grappler. His wrestling is superior and I don't think he will have too much trouble putting Mayhem on his back. Miller is a scrappy fighter however and knows how to get back to his feet. Mayhem also survived 15 minutes on the ground with one of the finest submission grapplers in the world, Jacaré Souza. Shields' MMA Jiu-Jitsu might be a tad superior than the Brazilian but I'm not sure it will be enough to catch Mayhem with a submission. Both guys are in great condition and I expect them to go the full five rounds with relative ease.

Winner: Jake Shields, Unanimous Decision.


Jeremy Lambert: I'm looking forward to this fight just because Jake Shields is a treat to watch and Jason Miller always brings the entertainment but I have a feeling that this fight is going to be painfully boring. Shields wrestling and grappling is good enough to put Miller on his back and control him while Miller's submission defense is good enough to avoid anything Shields works for. That means we could see 25 minutes of Shields on top of Miller and controlling him while Miller makes stupid faces and gestures that gives the crowd something to laugh at and the announcers to talk about. I hope I'm wrong.

Winner: Jake Shields, Decision


Bill Wannop: Another fighter who I just can't stand and I don't really know why is Jake Shields. I don't think he has beaten solid competition aside from Robbie Lawler. He has limited striking and his ground game is not that impressive to me. Now Miller on the other hand is the man and always entertains. He has good ground skills so he should be able to avoid Shields submissions as well his striking is much better the Shields.


Winner:Miller, Unanimous Decision, Rd 2


The staff picks Jake Shields 8-2.

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Fedor Emelianenko (30-1, 1 NC) vs. Brett Rogers (10-0)
Bill Wannop: Now onto the big one. I was the only one to successfully pick Rogers to KO Arlovski but that was because Arlovski has a chin made of Greek wedding dishes. Fedor does not. That is why I am surprised to see many of my fellow 411'ers picking Rogers. Rogers has beaten nobodies on his way to becoming 10-0 and has never been past the midpoint of a fight. We have no idea of his ground skills we just know that he hits hard, but as Fedor's coaches noted on Fight Camp 360, he swings wildly and leaves many openings. I think Rogers can be a force in MMA if he moves to a better gym and gets some quality coaches. On Fight Camp 360, the coaches were scouting Fedor off of YOUTUBE CLIPS! If that doesn't throw up some red flags that maybe these guys are in over their head, then I don't know what does. I see the first round being a slow round with lots of clinching with Fedor finally getting the takedown in the second round and ending it.


Winner:Fedor, Armbar, Rd 2


Jeremy Lambert: "Big fellow. Nice haircut. Cool shorts." That's how Fedor's camp described Brett Rogers when they were watching footage of his previous fights. They're clearly taking this fight very serious. Everyone knows the story on this fight. If Brett Rogers is going to win, he'll do it with a quick flurry that just catches Fedor. He's not going to outstrike Fedor over a period of time, he's not going to out grapple Fedor, and I doubt he has the cardio to keep up with Fedor. It's going to be quick, exciting, and shocking. If Fedor is going to win, he'll do it by avoiding the quick flurry and then he'll just be the better fighter. He'll use his sambo to get the fight to the ground and then beat on Rogers from the top position until the ref stops it or he decides to take home Rogers' arm with the kimura. It'll be an exciting first couple of minutes but the outcome shouldn't be in doubt after that point.

Winner: Fedor Emelianenko, Submission, Round One


Samer Kadi: Honestly, despite Rogers' obvious punching power, I think he has a really, really slim chance of taking this bout. I'm sure he's training harder than he's ever done, and his striking is dangerous for anyone to deal with, but I just don't think he brings anything new to the table that Fedor hasn't had to deal with before. His size and strength can't be underestimated, and Fedor won't have the easiest time taking him down, but sooner or later, I think he will. While Arlovski had some success against Fedor with some sharp technical boxing, Rogers' stand up isn't nearly as fluid. He does have the dangerous straight right to counter Fedor's wild loopy punches, which will be key. But if that doesn't work, it might be a case of "Now what?" for the Grim. He doesn't have the experience to go into deep waters with someone like Fedor, and I just think if his initial strategy doesn't work, he will run out of ideas, which is where Fedor's experience will make the difference. Once the fight hits the ground, Fedor won't have too much trouble locking in a trademark armbar or more likely, a Kimura. Rogers has been practicing submission escapes, but really, a few months of training are hardly enough. Plus in practice, he has the privilege of not being pounded on by someone with Emelianenko's ground and pound accuracy.

Winner: Fedor Emelianenko, Submission, Round 2.


Scott Kuczkowski: Let me just explain how I think this fight will go: Fedor throws some wide punches in order to get Rogers to react. Fedor clinches, gets the takedown, and less than 20 seconds later gets an armbar or kimura. The amount of time taken to read this will probably equal the time the fight lasts.

Winner: Fedor, Submission, Round 1.


Todd Bergman: So this is the big CBS debut of Fedor. I get why people are so geeked up about Rogers: he's looked good in his destruction of some questionable characters. The Arlovski victory was huge, but Fedor in on a completely different level. When breaking down this fight, the questions surrounding Rogers outweighed any thought that I would have of picking him. For all the punching power that Rogers has shown, his cardio and ground game still remain a huge question mark. Fedor will have to get creative with his takedowns, but from there it should only be a matter of time. Anybody picking Rogers in this fight, has clearly lost his or her mind.

Winner: Fedor, Submission, round 1


Jeffrey Harris: A lot of people poo-poo'ed my pick of Shogun at UFC 104. My main motivation was basically that Shogun is a great fighter everyone was overlooking and people had this idea that Machida was unbeatable and untouchable, which I don't care for. Shogun lost, but after the fight was over, that's not what people were talking about. Shogun proved that you can damage and get a round on Machida. So again, I'm picking Brett Rogers here as much as everyone worships Fedor and thinks Rogers hasn't shown anything, I think that's just as much reason to pick Rogers because we haven't seen Rogers limits. That or Rogers could very well have nothing more than a puncher's chance against one of the most dangerous, powerful, and well rounded fighters on the planet. However, this is still Fedor's first ever fight in a cage. Rogers has fought in the cage more than Fedor even though he has fewer fights. But still, going with Rogers.

Winner: Brett Rogers, KO, RD 1

Dan Plunkett: Will this finally be the fight where we see Brett Rogers' ground game? Despite fighting the greatest of all time, we may not. It's entirely possible that Rogers could knock Fedor out. He has a big punch and Fedor keeps his hands relatively low. With that said, Fedor could also knock Rogers out standing. On the ground, it won't even be close. If this ends up on the ground, it will be Fedor's choice of whether he wants to submit Rogers or show America his brutal ground and pound. So while an upset is entirely possible, I see many more winning options for Fedor in this fight. He's simply the much better fighter; I can't pick against him.

Winner: Fedor Emelianenko, Submission, Round 1


Patrick Mullin: Clubber Lang vs. Ivan Drago. A cold and calculating technician against the aggressive and powerful bomber. Styles will clash here as the heavy handed Rogers will look to KO Fedor on the feet while the man hailed by many as the greatest of all time will look to bring his dangerous foe to the ground and make him tap. Fedor has shown some of the greatest recovery skills in all of MMA, particularly against Fujita and Randleman. But that was then and this is now. Fedor is passing his physical prime with every day while Rogers is in his prime. He also has the distinctive advantages one needs to beat Fedor. Call me crazy but I smell a huge upset here.

Winner: Brett Rogers, KO, Round One.


Jonathan Solomon: The best MMA fighter of all time.

Winner: Fedor Emelianenko, Submission (armbar), Round 1.


Daniel Bonnizzio: Nobody kill me but I think this is the perfect fight for Fedor to lose. Brett has some really heavy hands and he has shown the ability to knock people out in one punch or with a beautiful combination. It's no secret that Fedor's biggest secret is technical boxing and like Andrei, Brett has some good boxing skills. We're going to see the young buck extend his record to 11-0 and hand Fedor a rather devastating TKO loss.

Winner: Brett Rogers, TKO, RD 2



The staff picks Fedor Emelianenko 7-3!

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