411's Roundtable Preview - UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera

Posted by Larry Csonka on 11.13.2009

The UFC returns to Manchester for UFC 105! Randy Couture returns to the light heavyweight division to take on Brandon Vera, Michael Bisping looks to rebound from his UFC 100 loss, Ultimate Fighter 9 winners James Wilks and Ross Pearson look to impress and more! Check out 411’s complete UFC 105 roundtable for the main card breakdown and don’t forget to join us for coverage of the event Saturday night!



WELCOME:
Welcome to another edition of the 411 Roundtable Preview! It is a busy month for MMA fans, as last week we got to see Fedor vs. Rogers, and now, in the next week we will get UFC 105, WEC 44 and UFC 106! And the best part of that is that TWO of the shows are non-PPV events! But enough jigger jabbering, let's meet the staff and break down the main card of UFC 105!


THE STAFF:
Daniel Bonnizzio: Key Strength: Takedowns

Jonathan Solomon: Key Strength: He's the juggernaut, bitch…

Jeffrey Harris: Key Strength: Keyboard Warrior.

Todd Bergman: Key Strength: Tappin Bitches.

Samer Kadi: Key Strength: Naked Chokes.

Jeremy Lambert: Key Strength: Cardio, because he's the Cardio Freak.






UFC 105 MAIN CARD BOUTS~!

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley
Daniel Bonnizzio: The third TUF winner on the card tonight sees Ross Pearson taking on Aaron Riley in the other Fight of the Night candidate. Both men are solid on the feet and as we saw at the TUF finale Ross can really throw the leather around if he wants to. While I like seeing Riley fight I think that he's not going to be able to keep Pearson from running him over, but I don't quite see Ross being able to finish him.

Winner: Ross Pearson, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Even Brits love Randy Couture as Pearson grew up in the sport idolizing Captain America. Speaking of Pearson, this is his first UFC fight since winning the TUF contract in June (that seems like light years ago, right?), his first decision victory since his second pro fight in 2007. He has won the majority of his fights by submission with a couple of knockouts sprinkled in. He studied Judo as a youth and has been training to improve his Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling for the majority of this decade. I believe both men will be about the same size as they are both 5'8" tall. Pearson has power and solid technical boxing but usually overpowers opponents on the ground. He will fight 40-fight veteran Aaron Riley who is 28-11-1 in his career, which began in 1997. Riley is a Greg Jackson fighter who has lost only four fights since 2006 (winning five). All but one came by knockout (including losses to Spencer Fisher and Eddie Alvarez). This will be a difficult fight for Pearson as Riley should be the more technical ground fighter but Pearson has more power in his hands. Riley is more of a complete fighter as he took Jorge Gurgel to a decision and won last year. I would not be shocked if Pearson can knock Riley out but I'll go with the safer pick.

Winner:Aaron Riley, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: I'm honestly not that impressed with Riley or his record especially since in the UFC he only has a 2-3 record. I think a lot of people are overlooking Pearson for this fight, and I expect Pearson to score a hard fought victory. I think it will be a good little brawl though.

Winner: Ross Pearson, Decision.

Todd Bergman: Riley has had quite the career resurgence since the epic fight with Gurgel that happened many moons ago. I realize that Pearson won the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, but not since Kendall Grove has a former winner been looked down upon as much. Riley should win this fight because he does everything that Pearson does, only a little bit better. That means that Pearson won't be able to get his takedowns, and if he can't do that then he is in big trouble. Riley should be able to unload his strikes and enforce his bruising style upon Pearson. Is it possible that both The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 winners will lose on the same card?

Winner: Aaron Riley, Decision

Samer Kadi: Ultimate Fighter season 9 winner Ross Pearson makes his PPV debut here against a tough customer in Aaron Riley. Pearson has a long way to go in terms of his stand up ability, but he is accomplished on the ground, having practiced Judo and then BJJ for many years now. Aaron Riley will always come to fight, but with more than 40+ fights to his credit, most of which being all out wars, you have to wonder if he can keep up with someone who's going to bully him around. I expect Pearson to avoid Riley's striking by clinching up repeatedly and work for the takedown. Once the fight hits the ground, he should be able to dominate.

Winner: Ross Pearson, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: After their last two fights, I can't say I have much interest in Pearson vs. Riley but hopefully Riley returns to his exciting ways and Pearson got the jitters out of the way. Riley will want to keep this standing while Pearson will want to get it to the ground. Riley has a decent sprawl and ground game though so even if it does hit the ground, he should be able to get back up or hold his own. On the feet Riley throws bombs and isn't afraid to take a punch so I expect him to come out swinging in this one. I think Riley is able to keep it standing and maybe he won't score the knockout but he'll damage Pearson more on the feet.

Winner: Aaron Riley, Decision

The staff picks is split, 3-3.

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Matt Brown vs. James Wilks
Daniel Bonnizzio: This is one of those fights where the TUF winner gets and easy first win to build him up. His opponent is tailor made for him to beat. James Wilks has some impressive grappling to his name and doesn't look completely lost on his feet. Matt Brown, while solid, has weaknesses in his game, one of his biggest being his lack of grappling skills. I see Wilks submitting him early on to get his first non-TUF win.

Winner: James Wilks, Submission, RD 1

Jonathan Solomon: This is also the first UFC fight for James Wilks since earning the TUF contract in June and ironically, this will be his first time fighting professionally in his native England (he fought his entire career in California prior to the TUF finale in Nevada). Wilks' bread and butter is his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (he holds a brown belt) as four of his career six wins are by submission. He will be taking on All-American Immortal MATT BROWN (the badass from season seven of TUF). Since stepping into the UFC he is 3-1 with his lone loss being a split decision against Dong Hyun Kim. Otherwise, he has knocked out Matt Arroyo and Pete Sell (still waiting for Yves Lavigne to stop that fight) and submitted Ryan Thomas. Brown has shown a propensity for being caught in submission holds (five of his seven losses are by submission) and while training with Team Jorge Gurgel, I surmise he's caught in thousands of them in practice. Brown is the better striker and will look to knock out Wilks.

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris: I expect this could also be a good little scrap. James Wilks looked impressive with his victory at the last TUF Finale, but he's probably getting one of the toughest post TUF tests of all time in THE IMMORTAL MATT BROWN. Wilks performance in this fight could very well set the stage for his future UFC tenure. I'm going all the way for Matt Brown in this fight who has looked impressive in all of his fights in the UFC thus far. I also think this will end in the second round by brutal TKO.

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2.

Todd Bergman: I've slowly started to come around on the Matt Brown Chewing Tobacco War Wagon. He has a great match up in James Wilks here. Brown's striking should be the deciding factor in this fight. For all of the slick submission ability that Wilks has, his chin still hasn't been tested. Unfortunately for Wilks, Matt Brown is a man on a mission. Brown will have to be careful when it comes to the submission ability of Wilks, but I'm betting on Brown bringing the heat with some punches more than I am Wilks grabbing a leg submission or even an arm bar. Brown adds another head to his wall with a TKO midway through the 2nd round. So without further ado, whatcha gonna do when "Immortal" Matt Brown runs wild on you??

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, 2nd Round

Samer Kadi: I wasn't high on Brown when I first saw him on TUF 7. His behavior annoyed me and his "Immortal" tattoo gives Brock Lesnar and Alan Belcher a run for their money. But since then, he's been on an absolute role. Stoppages of Matt Aroyo, Ryan Thomas and Pete Sell as well as a controversial loss to Dong Hyun Kim have really given Brown's stock a raise and he has now backed up his striking ability with a very solid ground game. On the other hand, Wilks' ground game looked spectacular against Damarques Johnson, and Brown will be better served to keep the fight standing where he should dominate the exchanges. I don't believe Brown wants to be on his back with Wilks on top of him and it will come down to whether he can stop the takedowns. It's a close fight but I favor Brown to keep the fight vertical and hand the Brit his first loss inside the UFC.

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2.

Jeremy Lambert: I'm becoming more sold on Matt Brown with every passing fight but James Wilks was so impressive against DeMarques Johnson that I have a tough time picking Brown's lack of ground game against Wilks' active ground game. If stays on the feet then Brown can win because he has an excellent chin and hits really hard but Wilks should be able to get it to the ground and if he does, it won't be long before he submits Brown.

Winner: James Wilks, Submission, Round 1

The staff picks Matt Brown 4-2 over the Ultimate Fighter 9 winner!

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Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang
Daniel Bonnizzio: In his bounce back fight Michael Bisping needs to look good or else he's going to be labeled an Ultimate Failure much like the oft-mentioned season 6 winner Mac Danzig. While not quite as high competition as Hendo, Denis Kang provides some serious competition for the Brit. However, I think that Bisping's ever-improved boxing, along with his solid BJJ will be enough to outlast Kang into the third round where we could see Bisping use his peppering punches to stick and weave his way to a TKO victory.

Winner: Michael Bisping, TKO, RD 3

Jonathan Solomon: The most famous British MMA fighter returns to the cage for the first time since his devastating KO loss at UFC 100 at the hands of Dan Henderson. Bisping now begins his long trek back towards attempting to earn a shot at Anderson Silva (sort of a painful prize, ain't it?). He will be taking on a fighter who has had most of his success in the sport in the Far East, Denis Kang. Kang will have a height disadvantage (about four inches) but has had nearly double the amount of fights that Bisping has. Kang is a black belt in BJJ, although we have not seen much of it over the past few years (since late-2007, Kang is 3-2 with only one fight going to a decision, his last, a win against Xavier Foupa-Pokam). I don't like Bisping in this match-up. Kang is just as good, if not better, a striker and is definitely a better ground fighter. Bisping's best chance to win would be to bully him against the cage, wear him out with body shots from the clinch and work from there. Kang is too explosive a fighter to fall in that trap and I predict we shall see a dangerous Denis Kang in this fight.

Winner: Denis Kang, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: This is an interesting fight for Bisping coming off his first ever brutal knockout loss at the hands of Dan Henderson at UFC 100. Denis Kang won his last fight over a can after getting his UFC debut spoiled by Alan Belcher. Contrary to popular belief, Bisping is not a can. I kind of have the feeling both fighters will be trying to play this one safe, both desperately wanting a win they really need at this point to remain relevant. I'm definitely not expecting either guy to lay it on the line and really put it out there to finish this fight. I think Bisping will let his counter-striking come into play and avoid the ground game of Kang.

Winner: Michael Bisping, Decision.

Todd Bergman: I'm not completely sure why the odds on this fight are so close. Yes, Bisping was picked apart by Dan Henderson, but Denis Kang possess none of the skills that Henderson does. Kang won't be able to stop the takedown attempts and if he is able to stop them early in the fight, his cardio simply won't hold up for the duration. This Denis Kang isn't the same guy who captivated audiences during his stint with PRIDE. Bisping should be able to control where this fight goes and, ultimately, that will earn "The Count" a decision victory.

Winner: Michael Bisping, Decision

Samer Kadi: After getting knocked out into the fall by Dan Henderson, Michael Bisping returns to the Octagon in his hometown of Manchester. By now, we know what Bisping brings to the table: A solid albeit unthreatening ground game, with decent stand up. Kang on the other hand is a legit BJJ black belt, with good striking as well. However, he has developed a habit of choking under pressure with his UFC debut against Alan Belcher serving as a prime example. The good news for Kang is, even if Bisping does capitalize on the inevitable mistake, he's unlikely to put him away as Bisping does not possess the power or the submission ability to finish the fight. On paper, I don't think Kang is a good match up for Bisping as he can at least match him in the stand up while having a far superior ground game. With that said, I do believe Bisping is a mentally tough fighter and he will be looking to bounce back from his painful loss to Hendo. Bisping has also shown a remarkable ability to scramble back to his feet in the Rashad Evans fight so he's unlikely to stay on his back for a considerable amount of time. I see Bisping edging out a close decision victory here.

Winner: Michael Bisping, Split Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: It will be very interesting to see how Bisping responds to such a brutal KO in his last fight. He's fighting a guy in Denis Kang who is a known mental flake but will Bisping fight so conservative that he allows Kang to win? Overall I think Kang is the better fighter. The wrestling edge might go to Bisping but Kang has the better ground game, is the better-rounded striker, and hits harder. Bisping's gameplan will likely be to jab and move (hopefully not into the power hand of Kang) while mixing in some takedowns to throw Kang off. Kang will just have to get off quicker with his strikes and maybe he welcomes the takedown given his ground game and Bisping's ability to get caught in submissions when he shouldn't. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kang takedown Bisping given that Bisping is no threat off his back and Kang should be able to control him from the top. This fight is going to tell us a lot as far as where both fighters are in the Middleweight division.

Winner: Denis Kang, Decision

The staff picks Michael Bisping 4-2!

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Dan Hardy vs. Mike Swick
Daniel Bonnizzio: Both men running with a winning streak in the highly competitive welterweight division, the potential Fight of the Night could determine GSP's next challenger. Dan Hardy has shown some pretty skilled striking and is all around a great fighter, but for some reason he has not impressed me as much as someone like Swick. Swick's famous fast hands and intelligence of knowing when to take the fight to the ground are going to be huge difference makers here. While Hardy is riding an impressive win streak, he has yet to really dominate somebody like Swick has, and Swick is used to competing at high levels. I just think that Swick's speed is going to be too much for Hardy as he uses the first round to get into Hardy's head and finishes him in the second after employing his famous Swick-o-tine.

Winner: Mike Swick, Submission, RD 2

Jonathan Solomon: The winner of this fight gets the opportunity to be battered at the hands of Georges St. Pierre in 2010 (YAY~!). This is actually an intriguing match-up between a powerful striker in Swick and an overall solid fighter in Hardy. This may be Swick's toughest opponent since dropping down to welterweight but he should be up to the task. Swick is a dangerous striker with excellent Muay Thai skills and uses his elbows and legs as if they were knives. Hardy is a purple belt in BJJ and has a solid boxing skill set so look to see who is more of the aggressor early in the fight when they stand. If Swick is using his speed and strikes to punish Hardy early, he may revert to attempting to take the fight to the ground. Overall, I think Swick is too effective (both in speed & power) a striker for Hardy to win, unless Hardy can take that away by keeping the fight on the ground. I doubt he can. If this is a striking way, Swick for the victory.

Winner: Mike Swick, TKO, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris: Many fans complained about this bout, but honestly it makes sense at this point. Though I would've possibly made the fight between Swick and Paul Daley instead if Paul Daley was ready. Dan Hardy is an interesting dark horse going into this, but I'm going with Swick who's had a gradual and steady rise to the top of the welterweight division for the past couple of years. I think this will be a tough matchup for both guys, but ultimately I see Swick's superior standup game coming through for him and being too much for Hardy.

Winner: Mike Swick, TKO, Round 3.

Todd Bergman: This fight should earn the Fight Of The Night. Dan Hardy has shown a tremendous ability to get under the skin of his opponents. That ability earned him a huge victory over Marcus Davis the last time out. However, Hardy should realize that Mike Swick isn't Marcus Davis and he won't let all the talk affect his game plan. Swick will get the fight to the ground and from there it's only a matter of time before Hardy leaves himself open for a submission. I'm going to play the game of chance and say that the tap out comes in the 3rd round, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it happened in the 2nd round. It's probably crazy to predict a submission victory here since Swick hasn't shown great ability at submissions, but Hardy usually gets sloppy when he's trying to scramble to get the fight standing, and that's all the opportunity that Swick will need to finish this fight.

Winner: Mike Swick, Submission, 3rd round

Samer Kadi: In a fight to determine the number one contender for Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title, AKA standout Mike Swick takes on British rising star Dan Hardy. Both fighters are very talented on their feet, with Swick possessing the faster hands but Hardy having the more technical striking. Hardy's counter punching has proven to be lethal in his last few bouts, and his overall striking game has gotten more versatile. As witnessed in the Marcus Davis fight, Hardy has become dangerous in the clinch where he likes throws some sharp elbows and knees. Conversely, that fight exposed a major weakness in Hardy's game as it became evident he doesn't offer much on the ground while his takedown defense remains mediocre. Swick, despite being a striker at heart, is the more versatile overall fighter. He's shown some decent wrestling ability in the past and the willingness to utilize it. If it turns into a kickboxing match, it's pretty much anyone's fight. But if Swick's doesn't like the taste of Hardy's fists, he can decide to take it to the mat, which would ultimately prove to be the difference in this contest.

Winner: Mike Swick, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: This fight is either going to be fireworks or Mike Swick isn't going to risk a guaranteed title shot and he's going to play it safe. I'm going with the latter. I think Swick feels that he's earned the title shot far more than Hardy and he's going to stick to a conservative gameplan that involves keeping Hardy away with the jab and mixing in a lot of takedowns. If they get into slugfest I actually give the advantage to Hardy because he has a great chin and I think he prefers to get into a brawl while Swick wants to use his reach and more well rounded striking. I doubt it gets into a slugfest though and I think Swick will put Hardy on his back for most of the fight leading to a disappointing decision. I hope I'm wrong. I do worry that Swick is overlooking Hardy as he didn't seem too concerned with him on the Countdown show.

Winner: Mike Swick, Decision

The staff picks Mike Swick 6-0!

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Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera
Daniel Bonnizzio: Both of these men need this win to stay relevant in this super-deep division, but one of them needs it more than the other by a long shot as he makes his re-debut to the Light Heavyweight ranks. Couture's famous strategy of bullying people against the cage and using his superior Greco skills to punish them with dirty boxing will not work as well here as Vera himself is a highly accomplished Greco wrestler in his own right and won't be as lost as some of Randy's previous opponents. If Vera wants to win he's going to have to stay away and pick Randy apart with his superior Muay Thai skills. We could definitely see Vera take the win here easily, but something tells me that Captain America is going to come out with another perfect gameplan to take the decision victory away here.

Winner: Randy Couture, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Free Couture~! This is a must-win fight for Randy Couture because lets face it, a loss at light heavyweight to Mr. Vera is not something that bounces a guy to big fights, whether you're Couture or not. I know many people expect Vera to utilize his striking and exceptional ground skills to prevent Randy from doing what he does best, leading to a win. Others feel this is a dangerous fight for Couture and we'll see him knocked out. I don't think either will happen although with a decision, anything can. Vera's most effective striking happens inside the clinch, the spot that Randy Couture enjoys dishing out his own punishment, too. Couture is like a gnat when he hounds his opponents from the clinch, takes them to the mat and grounds out a round with his ground and pound. What have we seen from Brandon Vera of late that leads you to believe he is going to out-duel Randy Couture on the ground? Certainly, Vera has his BJJ skills but Couture went toe-to-toe with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for fifteen minutes without being submitted. I think he will be just fine. I will be worried if Couture cannot get away from Vera's clinch and dirty box, because at the end of the day, Vera's knees are very dangerous. The man has nearly lost just as many fights as he has won, but I will not pick against him against Brandon Vera.

Winner: Randy Couture, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: As much as I like Brandon Vera and think he's a cool dude, I really want to see Randy Couture pull this off and get the win. Even though Randy was dominated and came out the losing end of his last two fights, I still don't want to bet against him here. I think both guys will come out primed and ready for a good fight, but Randy's dirty-boxing and clinch work will ultimately come through for him. Vera's looked better at light heavyweight but in his last fight he looked somewhat in going for a finish. I don't think he can fight like that against Randy.

Winner: Randy Couture, Decision.

Todd Bergman: Everyone will break this fight down by talking about which Brandon Vera will show up and about Couture's chin. I'm not going to touch on any of that stuff because this fight is pretty cut and dry to me. Vera has traditionally struggled when his opponent bullies him. Granted, Vera was bullied at a higher weight class but Couture is the type of fighter that will put you into the preverbal meat grinder. Vera has been extremely average in his recent fights, and I haven't seen enough to warrant a selection by me here. Couture re-ignites the magic and scores the decision win here. It will be very interesting to see what match up the UFC goes for next in regards to Couture. Will he get someone like Shogun since Machida is injured, or does he draw the winner of the Evans/Silva fight? I, personally, don't think that a victory over Vera warrants huge buzz, but the 205lbs division is in need of some fresh match ups, so I'm all for the hype-machine being pushed into full effect.

Winner: Randy Couture, Decision

Samer Kadi: Brandon Vera welcomes Captain America back to the light heavyweight division. After dropping back-to-back losses at heavyweight, Couture has decided to move back to the 205-pound division. I'm still torn on this decision as fighting faster – albeit smaller – fighters isn't the best option at this stage of Couture's career. Brandon Vera's Greco Roman background means he won't find himself out of place in the clinch, where Couture will undoubtedly look to put him. Vera needs to throw his kicks wisely as he doesn't want to give Randy the opportunity to grab a hold of a leg and take him down. Couture's striking is much improved, but his main issues remain the ability to take a shot and reflexes. Look at the Nogueira fight, Randy was throwing very fluid combinations and showing good head movement, yet he couldn't avoid getting tagged. I just think that at 46 years of age, Randy's reflexes and chin are no longer what they used to be. Vera doesn't possess a lot of power in his hands, but is very dangerous with his kicks and knees from the clinch. If Vera fights not to lose like he's been doing since his comeback in 2007, he will find himself on the wrong end of a decision. If he lets his hands and feet go and is able to catch Randy on the temple, it could well be turn out to be the biggest victory of Brandon's career. Still, I'll never bet against Randy Couture and I think he's exactly the guy to take advantage of Vera's mental collapses during fights. Vera's cardio hasn't looked terrific in a while as well, and if Randy piles up the pressure, "The Truth" could be in for a long night.

Winner: Randy Couture, Unanimous Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: This fight is pretty simple. Randy Couture wants to push the pace, clinch with Vera, and try to break him with dirty boxing. Brandon Vera wants to avoid the clinch, keep the distance, and use his speed to frustrate Couture. Vera is a known mental flake so if Couture can bully him against the cage and rough him up, chances are Vera will break. Couture's striking has come a long way since he first started but Vera is the better rounded of the two, hits harder, and while I don't question Couture's chin I do question his temple. Vera has a background in Greco roman wrestling so Couture's trip takedowns may not be as effective on Vera as they usually are but when Randy wants to put you on your back, he puts you on your back. Although Vera has a good submission game, Couture is too crafty and has too much heart to get caught and tapped at this point in his career. I want to pick Couture because I hate picking against him and Vera has no track record of beating top fighters but I think this is Vera's coming out party. My concern with Vera is his hero worship of Couture, which is never good for fighters.

Winner: Brandon Vera, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Randy Couture 5-1!

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