Cardio Freak MMA News Report 11.16.09: Lacking Killer Instinct

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 11.16.2009

This week in Cardio Freak: A review of UFC 105 featuring Randy Couture being Randy Couture, Brandon Vera losing a fight he should have won, and Dan Hardy being better off losing. Plus a preview of UFC 106 featuring a must win fight for Ortiz and Griffin, a quick preview of WEC 44, and news on Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. It's more exciting than the UFC 105 main event, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Headline News

UFC 105 will be forever remembered as the time I picked every single main card fight incorrect. Ok. Maybe that's not the lead story coming out of Manchester. But now you see what happens when I'm working on short rest. I'm about as effective as AJ Burnett.



In reality, UFC 105 will be remembered for Randy Couture successful, albeit underwhelming, return to the Light Heavyweight division. Randy Couture fought a Randy Couture fight. He controlled Vera in the clinch, pressed him against the cage, and bullied him around. While it wasn't the most exciting performance, it was exactly what most excepted. Brandon Vera put up a good a fight and I actually thought he won. Unfortunately for him he failed to really capitalize when he had Couture hurt and he allowed Couture to stay in the fight. Whenever there was distance between the two fighters, Vera was easily winning the exchanges. He really roughed up Couture with body kicks that Randy had no answer for. But even though Couture failed to do a lot of damage in the clinch, he was able to control Vera and do just enough to win the decision.

I wasn't that impressed with Couture in this fight. He was clearly at a disadvantage standing and he wasn't able to really rough up Vera in the clinch. In fact, Vera was able to takedown and mount Couture late in the fight. If Couture didn't look very impressive against Brandon Vera, who is good but clearly just a mid-level fighter, why should I believe he'll look any better against a top fighter? It's amazing what this man is doing at the age of 46 but he's just not a top-level fighter anymore. Is he going to beat mid-level fighters? Very likely. But does anyone really want to see Randy Couture vs. Keith Jardine? Nope. At the same time, does anyone really want to see Randy Couture at the end of a fight against someone like "Shogun" Rua? Nope. I doubt Couture is going to retire because no one retires after a win but would you be sad if he did? I sure wouldn't I don't want to see Couture end up like someone like Sakuraba. A guy clearly past his prime but continues to fight mediocre fighters because it will draw but when they fight a top fighter, it's just sad to watch.

I don't know where Brandon Vera goes from here. He's a good fighter but I think he can kiss the dream of winning the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight title at the same time goodbye. For whatever reason, Vera just lacks a killer instinct and that's not something one can learn. You either have it or you don't. Vera doesn't have it and that's cost him some wins and fans. He had Couture hurt in the second and failed to do anything once Randy dropped to the ground and he had a full mount in the third and failed to do anything. I would say that Vera's hero worship of Couture made him fight with caution as to not hurt his idol and while that might have had something to do with it, I just think Vera lacks the killer instinct and it's been proven enough times over the years for me to say that with full confidence.



Probably the biggest story to come out of UFC 105 is Dan Hardy's victory over Mike Swick and the earning of a UFC Welterweight title shot against Georges St. Pierre. I don't want to make excuses for Swick but I really think he was overlooking Hardy and didn't think Hardy was worthy of fighting him for a title shot. Obviously that's Swick's dumbass fault for thinking that way but it wouldn't surprise me if this were the case.

I give credit to Dan Hardy though. He fought a really good fight. He stuffed every takedown attempt of Swick, broke even in the clinch game, and landed the bigger punches. Swick failed to put Hardy on his back and couldn't do anything to him on the feet except land a good counter left hook that Hardy shook off every time. Every time Hardy connected with Swick, Swick seemed to buckle a bit. Hardy lacked a bit of killer instinct as well because he had Swick hurt a few times but decided to clinch rather than let his hands go. I think that was more of a case of Hardy respecting Swick's one punch power more than anything.

I hope Dan Hardy spends the next couple of months working on nothing but his takedown defense in preparation for St. Pierre because he's going to need it. I give Hardy a chance in that fight because he has one punch power and he's a tough guy to finish but you're not beating GSP unless you have a Chuck Liddell-like legendary sprawl.



I still don't know if Michael Bisping is any good but I do know that Denis Kang isn't. Once again, Denis Kang just mentally broke in a fight he was clearly winning. He dropped Bisping in the first round and controlled him on the ground for the rest of the round. Then in the second round he gave up an early takedown, ate a bunch of punches, and never recovered.

One thing I'll say about Michael Bisping is that he responded well after the big KO loss at UFC 100 and he responded well after losing the first round. While Kang might be a mental flake, I think Bisping is very mentally strong. He's demonstrated that in the past (the Rashad Evans fight) and he demonstrated it at UFC 105. Is he a top Middleweight? I don't know. He's a good fighter, he'll beat any mid-level fighter, but I certainly wouldn't favor him against some like Nate Marquardt or Vitor Belfort. That said, his only two career losses are against Rashad Evans and Dan Henderson. Not exactly slouches. Although it might be too much time off for Bisping, I'd probably pit him against the winner of Wanderlei Silva vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama or a fight against Patrick Cote makes sense although I don't know when Cote will be ready to fight again.

As for Kang, I just don't think he's very good. He has the talent but he's mentally weak and collapses under pressure. There's no real cure for this. You either finish your opponent early or you collapse. It's been the knock on Vitor Belfort forever and now it's the knock on Denis Kang. He'll likely get another chance in the UFC but he needs to turn in an impressive performance against a good fighter if he hopes to be taken serious a title contender.



In what might have been the most impressive performance of the night, Matt Brown defeated James Wilks in the third round by TKO. After seeing James Wilks handle DeMarques Johnson at the TUF9 finale, I figured he would be able to get Brown to the ground and pull off a submission but Brown has clearly come a long way since his stint on TUF7. His takedown and submission defense have improved greatly since his time on the show and he's still the killer that everyone made him out to be on his feet. I don't know if he can hang with some of the wrestlers at the top of the division but at least we know he'll make a fight out of it.

Ross Pearson did what his fellow TUF9 Champion failed to do and that's pick up a victory over a tough competitor. I didn't know how good Pearson was coming into this fight because his TUF9 Finale fight was a clinching stalemate but he clearly has some very good striking with power to go along with it. If Aaron Riley's parents didn't bless him with a great chin then the fight would have been over long before the cut stoppage. Pearson proved he has talent though because Riley is as tough as they come and Pearson just out-classed him on the feet.



Full Main Card Results:

*Randy Couture defeated Brandon Vera by Unanimous Decision (29-28 across)
*Dan Hardy defeated Mike Swick by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
*Michael Bisping defeated Denis Kang by TKO at 4:24 in Round Two
*Matt Brown defeated James Wilks by TKO at 2:27 in Round Three
*Ross Pearson defeated Aaron Riley by TKO at 4:38 in Round Two

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Once again, due to these MMA organizations feeling the need to run a show every damn weekend, the preview gets cut short for the most part. After UFC 105, I advise everyone to bet the opposite of me because I'm again working on short rest.

UFC returns to PPV this Saturday with a card that looks nothing like what it was originally scheduled to be. Tito Ortiz was supposed to make his Octagon return against Hall of Famer Mark Coleman but Coleman, proving to be the Affliction MMA of fighters, dropped out of a high profile fight for the second time since announcing his UFC return over a year ago. That led to Forrest Griffin running at the chance to avenge a April 2006 loss to Ortiz and stepping up in place of Coleman. With Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin and Ortiz vs. Griffin 2 set to headline the card, it was easily one of the most anticipated fight cards left in 2009. Then Brock Lesnar decided to get on top of his wife one too many times and come down with an illness that forced him out of his fight against Carwin. Rather than finding a replacement for Carwin, UFC just decided to postpone the fight until sometime in 2010. That led to Ortiz vs. Griffin 2 moving up to the main event and allowed Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson to step up on short notice to square off in the co-main event. Sure it's not the money drawing PPV it was when first announced but top to bottom UFC 106 is still a very intriguing card.



The intrigue starts with the main event. In talking to people about this fight, they don't seem too interested and I'm not sure why. Sure there's no title or title shot on the line but this is a fight between two men who are desperate for a victory. Both of these men are superstars in the sport and former Light Heavyweight Champions. They're also riding losing streaks with Griffin being 0-2 in his last two fights, his last fight being a rather embarrassing performance during and after the fight, and Ortiz being 0-2-1 in his last three and hasn't competed since May 08. If either man wants another shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight title anytime soon, they need to win this fight and they need to do so in rather convincing fashion.

You're going to read/listen to a lot of previews of Ortiz vs. Griffin 2 that look back at Ortiz vs. Griffin 1 from UFC 59 and try to draw conclusions from that fight. There's no point in doing that. Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin are much different fighters today then they were back in April 2006. That was over three years ago. Chuck Liddell was the best Light Heavyweight in the world, Randy Couture was retired, Brock Lesnar was the IWGP Heavyweight Champion, and Taylor Swift had yet to release an album. A lot changes in three years.

What shouldn't change is the gameplan of both fighters. Griffin wants to keep things standing, Ortiz wants to put Griffin on his back. Even though I don't think Griffin landed a fingernail on Anderson Silva, he's still a good striker who just fought an elite striker. Griffin mixes things up well and uses a lot of kicks. He unfortunately has no power and a suspect chin, which isn't good when you prefer to strike. Although he throws a lot of kicks, Griffin tends to become lazy with them. A lazy body kick led to Rashad Evans taking him down and finishing back at UFC 92 and a lazy leg kick almost led to Griffin getting Irvin'd by the hand of Anderson Silva. If he throws lazy kicks against Ortiz, he'll end up on his back eating punches and elbows. Ortiz is comfortable on his feet but keeps things rather simple. He covers with his arms rather than using a lot of head movement, leaving him open for straight punches, uppercuts, and anything to the body and legs. He wings his right hand a lot like Chuck Liddell, he just doesn't set it up as well as Liddell and doesn't have as much power behind it.

Ortiz wants to turn this fight into a wrestling match. That what he's done his entire career and it's not going to change now. Griffin has a good sprawl although it can be inconsistent. Sometimes it's impossible to take him down, other times he ends up on his back more easily than Lindsay Lohan. It really depends on what kind of shot Ortiz comes with. Ortiz claims to be 100% healthy for the first time in forever (although he also claimed to be 100% healthy against Liddell, Evans, and Machida) and if he truly is healthy, he should have a rather explosive takedown. In previous fights his takedowns have come from far out and have been telegraphed. Ortiz needs to set up the takedown with his hands in this fight or else Griffin should be able to sprawl out.

In the guard of Griffin is where Ortiz wants to be. He's one of the few fighters who can do a lot of damage with punches and elbows from the guard. The question is, which guard of Griffin will show up? The guard of Forrest Griffin is more inconsistent than Tony Romo. Sometimes it's really good, tough to pass, and constantly looking for sweeps and submissions (the "Shogun" fight) and other times it's wide open with no sign of defense (the Evans and Jardine fights). If Griffin can keep his composure while on his back and not flail around like a kid who didn't get an iPod for Christmas then he'll be able to use his guard to neutralize the strikes of Ortiz and possibly threaten with submissions and sweeps.



Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson battle in the co-main event for a potential shot at Georges St. Pierre after he gets done beating on Dan Hardy.

The fight will be dictated by what Josh Koscheck wants to do. If he continues to believe he's a top level striker, he's going to get knocked out. If he goes back to his explosive wrestling then he could pull out the decision victory. Here's the thing about Koscheck: I think he knows he's not a top level striker, his coaches know it, and he's not stupid enough to go away from their gameplan. Not counting the Thiago Alves fight because that was taken on short notice by just him, the only other fight since UFC 82 that Koscheck wasn't better than or equal to in the striking department was against Chris Lytle. What did he do in that fight? He took down Lytle and pounded his way to a decision victory. Koscheck is smarter than given credit for. He's been using his stand up a lot lately because he's been facing guys with either good jiu-jitsu or guys with striking on the same level or lesser than him. And outside of the Paulo Thiago fight where he just got caught, it's been working for him.

If Koscheck stands with Johnson, he'll get knocked out. I don't think Johnson is as good of a striker as made out to be but there's no denying his explosiveness and power. At the very least with Johnson you have to be worried about punches and kicks while with Koscheck you just have to look out for the right hand. I also think Koscheck has suspect striking defense as he loves to duck his head when throwing the right hand, leaving him wide open for an uppercut or high knee.

Usually if Josh Koscheck wants to takedown his opponent, he does so with relative ease. The only exceptions being Georges St. Pierre, who is a freak of nature and I'm not convinced he's human, and Thiago Alves in a fight that Koscheck took on short notice. I know he's taking the Johnson fight on short notice as well but Johnson has had the same amount of time prepare as Koscheck and I think the short notice hurts Johnson a lot more, especially after his last outing where he cut a lot of weight on Thursday/Friday, was huge on Saturday, probably took a couple days off after the fight and got bigger, then had to be back in the gym to train and cut weight. Koscheck on the other hand seems like the type of guy who never gets out of shape because he practically lives in the gym. Even though Johnson has a wrestling background and will have a huge weight advantage, if Koscheck works hard enough then he'll be able to put Johnson on his back.

On the ground it really depends on who's on top. Neither fighter will threaten off their back with submissions and Johnson doesn't really have a strong top game. He holds his position well but doesn't do a lot of damage and never really looks to move to a more dominant position. Koscheck doesn't have great ground and pound but he stays active enough to keep the fight on the ground and throws good short elbows from the guard.



UFC welcomes Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to the Octagon this Saturday and he has no easy time in his debut as he faces Luiz Cane. Both of these men are well-rounded but I can't help but think that Nogueira is better than Cane in every category. On the feet Nogueira is an Olympic level boxer while Cane's striking is very good and he does a better job mixing things up with kicks and knees. Cane is good on the ground but Nogueira is Nogueira. I don't think I need to explain what that means. Cane showed that his gas tank might not be up to snuff in his UFC 97 fight against Steve Cantwell and he showed some holes in his striking defense. I'm really looking forward to this fight because anytime the Nogueira Brothers always bring it while I have high hopes for Cane in the coming years.

Phil Baroni vs. Amir Sadollah is pretty much Joe Silva's way of saying to Amir, "you got screwed in your last fight. As long as you're in shape to go three minutes you'll win your next fight." There's not much else to this fight. Phil Baroni hits really hard and maybe Amir's chin is questionable after getting dropped by Johnny Hendricks but those shots were in tight, where Baroni will likely throw from the outside. If Amir can survive what should be a quick flurry from Baroni then he should have no problem winning the fight. He's a better technical striker, he's better on the ground, Baroni is the better wrestler but his submission defense isn't great, and he should be in better condition.

Dustin Hazelett returns to the Octagon after a year away from action thanks to a bunch of injuries. Unfortunately he's facing Karo Parisyan who has been injuring my eyes in his last couple of outings. I hope Karo fights his usual conservative style against Hazelett because he's going to get beat if he does. They're both good on the feet but I don't think either has a significant advantage. Karo always looks scared to pull the trigger on the feet while Hazelett lacks power. Karo will probably toss around Hazelett in the clinch because of his judo background but I don't think Hazelett will mind going to the ground given his jiu-jitsu. Dustin Hazelett is one of the slickest submission artists off his back.



Official Predictions:

*Forrest Griffin to defeat Tito Ortiz by Decision
*Josh Koscheck to defeat Anthony Johnson by Decision
*Amir Sadollah to defeat Phil Baroni by Submission in Round One
*Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to defeat Luiz Cane by Decision
*Dustin Hazelett to defeat Karo Parisyan by Submission in Round Two

Major UFC/WEC News



On November 14 Dave Meltzer reported that Brock Lesnar is in very bad shape and is fighting career could be in jeopardy. According to the report, Lesnar went to Canada to get some rest and ended up collapsing and was rushed to the hospital. Nothing else is known at this time.

Not only did Lesnar get on top of his wife one too many times but he also had one too many Coors Light, that's a Coor Light because Bud Light won't pay him nothing, to drink.

In all seriousness, I hope that everything turns out well for Lesnar. I'm a big fan of Lesnar both as a fighter and as a personality and I would hate to see his career get cut short because of some disease. He's only 32 years old, he's been doing MMA for less than three years, he's the Heavyweight champion, and he's arguably the biggest star in the company. Obviously it would suck if anyone had a career threatening disease but it's really bad news for everyone when it's a major player like Brock Lesnar. I don't want to speculate on what he has because that's all it would be, speculation. I just hope that it turns out that everything is fine and we see Brock Lesnar back in the Octagon in 2010.

With this news, expect Fedor Presented by M-1 Global to sign a UFC contract tomorrow knowing he won't have to fight Brock Lesnar anytime soon.



On November 14 Dave Meltzer reported that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is out of his UFC 108 fight with Cain Velasquez due to a staph infection. Shane Carwin is unavailable to replace Nogueira due to knee surgery. At this time Velasquez has no opponent for UFC 108.

Can we get someone to properly clean the mats at Team Blackhouse? I'd be willing to do so for free if it meant hanging out and eating Big Macs with Anderson Silva all day.

This is another huge blow for UFC 108 as every time UFC hints at or schedules a main event, someone gets hurt. Right now the easiest solution is to pull Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo for UFC 107, do Mir vs. Velasquez at UFC 108 and have Pat Barry vs. Cheick Kongo at UFC 107. That's if they want to keep Velasquez on the UFC 108 card. If they decided to pull him off the card then there are a few possibilities for UFC 108 with the one making the most sense being Nate Marquardt vs. Vitor Belfort. That's not exactly a money drawing main event but top to bottom UFC 108 would end up being a very good card.

My other idea involves Randy Couture coming back on what could be considered short notice and fighting Rashad Evans, who wouldn't turn down that fight this time around. That would leave Thiago Silva without a fight but I'm sure someone worthy would be able to step up and fight him by the time the card rolls around. I'm looking at you Rich Franklin.

You'll probably hear the name Chuck Liddell being floated around but I wouldn't buy that one. The biggest reason why being that Dana White has already publically stated that Liddell is retired and he won't allow him to fight again. How bad would Dana look if he allowed Liddell to fight because he needed a superstar to step up on short notice and Liddell was his only option? That's just the biggest reason why I don't think it will happen, there are hundred smaller reasons to go with it.

The person who could benefit most from all this might be Dan Henderson. UFC wants a big name to fight on this card and they might have to cave in to Henderson's contract demands in order to try and salvage this card.



WEC 44 is this Wednesday, November 18 live on Versus. Here is the main card:

*Featherweight Title Fight: Mike Brown © vs. Jose Aldo
*Leonard Garcia vs. Manny Gamburyan
*Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan
*Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller

I'm really looking forward to the Brown vs. Aldo fight. Aldo has been on a tear as of late knocking out his opponents in quick and devastating fashion while Brown have proven himself to be the best Featherweight in the world. While Aldo has turned in some explosive performances as of late those look good in highlights more than they prove anything. For that reason I favor Mike Brown in this fight. I know he's going to show up ready for a 25 minute war and I'm not sure Aldo is prepared to handle the wrestling and overall grittiness of Brown. Jose Aldo is a great fighter for the first few minutes but will he be the same fighter in the following minutes? Explosiveness only lasts so long in fights while Brown's hard work will pay off for the entire fight. If Aldo catches Brown early, he has the power to put him to sleep. But if he fails to put him away early, how will he react? I just hope we get an exciting fight and considering the company and competitors, I expect nothing less.

The rest of the card should be fun because, as we always say, it's WEC so it's going to be good. Garcia vs. Gamburyan will be really fun if Garcia makes short work of Gamburyan or really boring if Manny fights his usual boring style of lay and pray. McCullough vs. Darabedyan could be a really exciting stand up war as Rob loves to throw hands with anyone while Darabedyan was a pro boxer before getting into MMA. Darabedyan trains with Karo Parisyan and Manny Gamburyan though and has a black belt in judo so he might resort to the Parisyan/Gamburyan method of boredom. Castillo and Roller are two wrestlers by trade, which means they'll throw hands for 15 minutes until someone falls.

One more time. All together now. It's WEC, it's going to be good.

No More News

That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a review of UFC 106 and WEC 44. Take care everyone.

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