Cardio Freak MMA News Report 11.30.09: Product Over Saturation
Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 11.30.2009
This week in Cardio Freak: A look at the increasing number of UFC events and why it's starting to hurt interest in the sport. Is it fair to compare UFC to WWE and NFL? Do more events mean more big fights? Find out inside. Plus a preview of The Ultimate Finale 10 and thoughts on Silva vs. Bisping, Thomson vs. Melendez, and Cain vs. Nogueira. It's more unpredictable than Jon Jones, it's Cardio Freak on 411.
Headline News
In the 2009 calendar year, UFC will have held 15 major (numbered) events with two of them being free shows. In 2010 many expect UFC to run the same number events, if not more.
Is that too many?
As MMA fans, it's tough to complain about being able to watch MMA almost every weekend when you factor in minor UFC shows, WEC, Strikeforce, and other promotions. But does the overall quality of shows in terms of match ups suffer?
Of the 15 major UFC events this past year, six were headlined by a fighter coming off a loss, three were headlined by two fighters coming off loses, and one was headlined and co-headlined by four fighters coming off loses. Prior to this year, UFC 85 was the last event to be headlined by a fighter coming off a loss, UFC 76 was the last event to be headlined by two fighters coming off loses, and an event had never been headlined and co-headlined by fighters coming off loses.
It's easy to blame injuries on non-winning fighters headlining cards but with the exception of UFC 106 (headlined by Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin in place of Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin), the other two events headlined by two fighters coming off loses (UFC 99 and UFC 102) were scheduled that way. UFC was essentially forced to headline cards with fighters coming off loses because of the increased number of events.
Along with the increase of headliners coming off loses was the decrease in events headlined by a title fight. In 2008, a title fight headlined 10 out of the 13 events. In the 2009, a title fight headlined seven out of 15 events. So despite holding more events this year, there were less title fights in the headlining position. There are some reasons for this statistic though. Once again, injuries played a factor but 2008 had two shows headlined by interim title fights, and BJ Penn and Anderson Silva, champions of their current division, took PPV fights at a higher weight class in 2009. It still seems unacceptable that less than half of the UFC events featured title fights.
The two biggest comparisons to UFC are WWE and NFL.
Many fans like to compare UFC and WWE because chances are they are wrestling fans who grew out of the sport and grew into UFC but the comparison also comes up because both companies run at least one PPV per month. It's a fair comparison when you're talking about spending money on a product but the difference is that in WWE you're spending money on a different match type featuring the same wrestlers while with UFC you're spending money on the same fighting premise featuring different fighters. For example: Chuck Liddell and Brock Lesnar, two of UFC's bigger draws, only fought a combined two times in 15 events. The Undertaker and John Cena, two of WWE's bigger draws, wrestled a combined 22 times in 15 events with John Cena wrestling on every single event this year.
One thing that hurts WWE PPVs is the fact that they have six hours of free programming every week. It's also possible that this is hurting UFC as well. With The Ultimate Fighter airing ever Wednesday, some people are getting their fighting fix on Wednesday and not bothering buying PPVs or watching the free shows. UFC 105 did rather mediocre numbers and some people attribute that to fans being able to watch MMA every Wednesday and not bothering with it on Saturday. Those same people usually fail to mention that Pacquiao vs. Cotto was running against the UFC show.
The comparison Dana White likes to make is to the NFL with the reason basically being, "millions of people watch the NFL every Sunday, why wouldn't they watch UFC every Saturday?" Of course there are problems with that theory. The biggest is that no one is paying $44.95 every Sunday to watch football. Everyone gets four Sunday and one Monday game for free. If NFL started charging fans to watch, people would likely pay for their favorite team and maybe a marquee match up. Which leads to the other big difference; everyone's favorite fighter doesn't fight on every event. In the NFL, you know that your team will play 16 out of 17 weeks in the season. In UFC, your favorite fighter might fight three times a year if you're lucky.
It also goes back to a column I wrote last year about there being no emotional attachment in MMA. A lot of fans don't connect with MMA fighters the way they connect with a football team and thus they don't have as much interest when it comes to following the sport.
So is UFC over saturating the product right now? I believe so. Don't get wrong, I'm not going to complain about more MMA but here's the big picture: more events lead to more of them being skippable due to the amount of uninteresting fights headlining the card. To start 2010 we're looking at a card headlined by Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva. I realize about 100 fights were scheduled for that card and they were all postponed due to injury but when you have more events, more injuries are bound to happen. If UFC cut back to one event per month, maybe some of the injuries would be eliminated and at the very least they wouldn't have to headline cards with Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson, Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine, or Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort.
Major UFC/WEC News
The Ultimate Finale 10 is this Saturday, December 5. Here is the main card:
*Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill
*TUF Finalist A vs. TUF Finalist B
*Frank Edgar vs. Matt Veach
*Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander
I'm really looking forward to Jones vs. Hamill because whoever wins will have to be considered in the next level of the division. Right now Jones is an exciting prospect but his biggest win was against Stephan Bonnar's corpse while Hamill has been around for awhile, is a good fighter, but doesn't have that big win on his record yet. Both fighters have a wrestling background with Hamill being on of the best wrestlers at 205. He's fallen into the Gurgel trap though of trying to strike too much despite not being a very good striker and have a ton of holes in his striking defense. He has a good chin so he can eat most punches but sooner or later someone with power is going to put him down. I like Jones in this fight though because I favor his speed and ability to be unpredictable. Right now Jones reminds me a lot of Urijah Faber with how he uses his speed in his striking and how he's very unpredictable in what he does. I expect this to be a rather good fight because you never know what Jones will try to pull off while Hamill constantly moves forward and presses the action.
I have no clue who will end up in the TUF Finals but I picked Roy Nelson to win the whole thing at the start of the season and it would be dumb of me to back off that pick now.
Unless Frank Edgar just overlooks Matt Veach, he should beat him. Veach is a good wrestler and he trains out of the HIT Squad with Matt Hughes but Frank Edgar is one of the best Lightweights in the UFC and is coming off a big win over Sean Sherk. Edgar is very well-rounded, pushes a good pace and I don't see him having too much trouble against Veach. Edgar will likely look to show off his hands again like he did against Sherk and if that's not working out for him, he'll put Veach on his back and control him.
I'm obviously excited for Kimbo vs. Houston even though we all expect it to be over in a minute or so. They both have power and then both have suspect chins. Houston is technically the better striker has he comes from a muy-thai background and he has a big advantage in the clinch, where I expect him to take this fight. Neither has much to offer on the ground so if one can get on top of the other they can rain down blows without much of a submission threat. Kimbo has been training at American Top Team, which should mean his game has improved since we last saw him but just by reading comments from other ATT members it doesn't seem like Kimbo is working as hard as he should. Then again I'm probably just another dumb person who reads too much into things when I shouldn't. I favor Houston in the fight just because of his muy-thai skills.
On November 24, FightersOnly reported that Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping would take place at UFC 110. Silva was originally scheduled to fight Yoshihiro Akiyama but he was replaced by Bisping with no reason given as to why. UFC 110 is scheduled for February 21 in Sydney, Australia.
Anytime Wanderlei Silva is in action I get excited and this is fight is no different. I'm not the biggest fan of Michael Bisping but he's coming off the most impressive performance of his career and he's fighting a guy who never fails to deliver an entertaining fight. Silva really needs this win as well. I know he's an extremely popular fighter who always brings it but he's lost five of his last six fights and he's 1-3 in the UFC. No matter how popular you are, you have to start winning fights for people to continue to care about you.
This is a good fight for both men and UFC. I like it on Bisping's side because he's very comfortable at Middleweight while this will be Silva's first cut. Silva cut to 195 against Rich Franklin and looked rather drained so cutting the 10 extra pounds probably won't help. It's always good to catch a fighter making their debut at a lower weight because chances are they won't be 100% of the fighter that they can be. I like the match up for Silva because Bisping doesn't have the KO power that can end the night for Silva. Bisping's very good at unleashing an onslaught of ground and pound, especially from a standing postured position, but he doesn't have one punch power on his feet. There are questions surrounding Silva's chin but I don't think we'll see Bisping crack it. And I like the fight for UFC because the winner looks like a viable title contender. Bisping would have two big wins at Middleweight should he pick up the victory while Silva would be 1-0 at Middleweight (allowing everyone to throw out what he's done in previous fights) and have the biggest name in the division.
On November 27, MMAWeekly reported that Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira would likely take place at UFC 110. The bout was originally scheduled for UFC 108 but fell through when Nogueira suffered a staph infection. UFC 110 is scheduled for February 21 in Sydney, Australia.
It's good to hear that Nogueira has seemingly recovered from his staph infection and will be ready to go in just a couple of months.
With Lesnar's future up in the air and Carwin taking time off for health and personal reasons, this fight becomes extra important in the Heavyweight division. The winner will most likely earn a Heavyweight title and it's important for the winner to look good in victory so UFC has an easier time selling them in a title fight, whether it's against Lesnar or Carwin. It's a good main event for the Australia show as well although with UFC being able to run this show in their normal PPV slot (10PM east in the US is Sunday afternoon in Sydney), this will likely be a PPV event rather than a tape delay event on Spike.
I favor Velasquez in the fight because it worries me that Nogueira is coming off another staph infection and I haven't punched my ticket to get off the Cain Train just yet. He's going to push a pace that Nogueira hasn't dealt with in a long time and even though he's not old in years, Nogueira is very old in MMAge. Cain has certainly never faced anyone with the experience and skill level of Nogueira though so we'll see how he deals with the pressure of really his first fight against a top Heavyweight.
On November 25, Yahoo reported that Gabriel Gonzaga had to pull out of his UFC 108 fight against Junior dos Santos due to a case of staph infection. The fight was scheduled to be the co-main event of the evening. UFC 108 is scheduled for January 2 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Should UFC just cancel this event? That's a serious question. Right now there are only four main card fights scheduled and the headliner is Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva in a fight I don't think anyone cares about. It's a shame Gonzaga vs. dos Santos was canceled because I was looking forward to see dos Santos against another top guy and seeing Gonzaga against a top guy. I'm the fight will be rescheduled and it's possible it could take place on the March card in New Jersey.
With UFC 108 lacking a decent co-main event I've come up with the following solution: right now Carlos Condit vs. Paul Daley is scheduled for UFC 108. I say they scrap that fight and instead do Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley and Carlos Condit vs. Dustin Hazelett (throw out my Hazelett vs. Fitch plan I had last week). Koscheck vs. Daley is just as worthy of co-main event status as Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson was and admit it, you're getting wet just thinking about a potential Hazelett vs. Condit fight. It's not a great card as far as name value and it's certainly a far cry from what it could have been but top to bottom it would be a solid card.
I mentioned this last week but it's worth repeating: we're going to see just how serious Dana White is about keeping Chuck Liddell retired. With UFC having so many events scheduled, they need guys who can draw. Chuck Liddell can still draw. I don't think Liddell has any desire to fight outside of Vegas and we know the Vegas crowds expect big fights. As much as I want Liddell to stay retired, I also get very excited at the prospect of Liddell vs. Forrest Griffin and I think if he's going to have one more fight in his career that should be the one.
Minor UFC/WEC News
On November 29, MMAMania reported that Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos is in the works for UFC 110. UFC 110 is scheduled for February 21 in Sydney, Australia.
Well I asked Joe Silva to book Sotiropoulos against tougher competition and being a loyal fan of mine, Silva listened.
This might be a step back for Stevenson but it's tough to give him steps forward when he's already faced and lost to BJ Penn, Diego Sanchez, and Kenny Florian all of whom are considered top five UFC Lightweights. If anything this is a good fight for Stevenson because it's a lot like the Ben Saunders vs. Mike Swick fight was for Swick. If Stevenson is as good as he thinks he is, he'll beat a guy like Sotiropoulos and he'll do so in impressive fashion. For Sotiropoulos this is obviously the biggest fight of his career and a chance to move himself into the next level of UFC Lightweights.
Major Strikeforce/Miscellaneous News
On November 24, Strikeforce announced that Josh Thomson vs. Gilbert Melendez will take place at Strikeforce: Evolution. The fight will be for Thomson's Strikeforce Lightweight title. Strikeforce: Evolution is scheduled for December 12 in San Jose, California.
I think this is about the 87th time this fight has been booked and in all previous attempts it's fallen through. Thomson won the Strikeforce Lightweight title from Melendez in June 2008 and has yet to defend the title thanks to a multitude of injuries. Since losing the Lightweight title, Melendez won the Interim Lightweight title in April 2009 and defended it in August 2009 against Mitsuhiro Ishida.
I want to favor Thomson in this fight just because of how well he controlled the first fight but he's coming off major knee surgery and Melendez has looked much improved since losing to Thomson over a year ago. I know what to expect out of Melendez and that's good boxing with relentless wrestling and good conditioning. Thomson is a bit of a mystery because of the long layoff and surgeries. Most fighters don't respond too well coming off long layoffs and surgeries.
What I'm most interested in concerning this fight is its placement on the card. Given that it's a title fight, it should be the main event but given that its Strikeforce, it'll probably be the co-main event in favor of Cung Le. Then again with the luck of this rematch it will probably be postponed once again and it won't matter.
No More News
That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a review of The Ultimate Finale 10 and a preview of UFC 107. Take care everyone.
title for ufc 108 "UFC 108 EVANS VS SILVA. WHO GIVES A FLYING FUCK"
Posted By: kingkongstudley (Registered) on November 30, 2009 at 01:18 AM
I like the idea for have tournaments span a couple pay pay views, it saves you from having to rely on your champions for every show, and builds legit contenders that for the fans to get to know and get behind in they're chase for the title, hate to use this line but its pro wrestling 101, build an exciting chase and story for the challenger so people can believe in him and it, and they will show up and buy the shows, instead of saying, this no name vs anderson silva bah, or who really wants to pay 50 bucks to see rashad evans vs thiago silva in a fight that affects nothing and no one, fights especially main events need real meaning behind them for people to care.
Posted By: Cody (Guest) on November 30, 2009 at 01:13 PM
There are a number of things the UFC could do to open up some better PPV match-ups. Granted, injuries are impossible to predict or plan around, but there are a number of potential fights that would be adequate Main Events.
1. Re-sign Dan Henderson and let Chuck come out of retirement, and bury the hatchet with Rampage. Let him do his movies AND fight. It can be done. 3 Main Eventers, right there.
2. Convince Mirko Cro Cop to drop to 205, they would have a great deal of top level good fights for him there, between Chuck, Randy, Forrest, Rashad, Shogun, and those are all Co-Main Event caliber fights, if not Main Event.
3. Convince Tito to drop to 185. That opens up possible fights with Wanderlei and Anderson Silva, Michael Bisping, Maia, Marquardt, the top level of Middleweight that has been decimated by The Spider. At least with some name power, you can draw out of the division.
4. Better contender fights. I think having tournaments spread out across a couple PPVs is a good idea. Not only do you build a #1 Contender, but you have fights with something on the line. Imagine if they seeded the top 8 fighters in each weight class. Actually make the fights mean something. The fans can get behind the fighters if they see them advancing toward something.
5. Stop doing catchweight fights as Main Events. They don't affect anything, so they should be undercard, at best.
Posted By: AGM (Guest) on November 30, 2009 at 11:23 AM
I admit it. I got wet thinking about a Hazelett vs Condit fight. I am not proud.
Posted By: E-Van (Guest) on November 30, 2009 at 09:57 AM
If you do an 8-man tournament, then it could span 3 PPVs. You get a YEAR'S worth of fights for the two men who end up in the Final, and then you have the Champion's next fight booked. There isn't all this flip-flopping and jumping around like with Vitor Belfort coming back and winning one fight in becoming a #1 Contender, or Dan Henderson just being thrown on the scrap pile after he earned a title shot over someone who would've been granted a title shot with a win.
Say the winner of the tournament beats the champion. You have a new champion who fans have watched win and win for a year. You not only have a potential big money rematch with the champion, but also with the fighter they beat in the Finals of the tournament, as well as top contenders as proven by that tournament. No more fights that just exist in themselves. They actually show the fan the progression up the card towards a championship. Great idea.
Posted By: Guest#3845 (Guest) on November 30, 2009 at 02:45 PM
Re: AGM
1. They've been trying to sign Dan, but are having problems on money. Sure, they could pay him whatever he wants, but that would put the UFC in a bad place- and more then likely, upset the other fighters on the roster. If they let Chuck fight, he'll more then likely only get 1 fight out of him- unless he wins in amazing fashion. As far as Rampage- he quit the UFC. They didn't quit him. If/ when Rampage wants to fight, he'll come crawling back. Until then, its his choice to be retired.
2. Mirko is set to face Rothwell at 110 in Sydney. Otherwise, it's not a matter of him having top level fights - it's that he's lost his fighting spirit and interest in the game. He'll more then likely be taken down, subbed, and leave the sport for good. CroCop may have been one of the best ever, but he hasn't look good in over 3 years and at 35, I doubt he'll be improving as time goes on.
3. There's almost no chance of Tito being able to get down to 185. As it is, he has to cut a lot to reach the 205 limit.
4+5. I fully agree.
Posted By: cyks (Guest) on November 30, 2009 at 03:15 PM
