411’s MMA Roundtable: UFC’s Ultimate Finale 10

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 12.04.2009

The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale is here! In the main event, Jon Jones looks to add another win to his undefeated record when he takes on Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. Also, who will be crowned season 10 champion when Roy Nelson takes on Brendan Schaub. Plus, Kimbo Slice takes on Houston Alexander! Check out the full roundtable for details!



WELCOME:
Months of speculation will come to a close on Saturday night when the UFC presents The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale. The newest Ultimate Fighter champion will be determined when Roy "Big Country" Nelson takes on former professional football player Brendan Schaub. Plus, can Jon Jones continue his streak of impressive performances against Matt Hamill? Will Kimbo Slice knockout Houston Alexander? The 411 staff breaks down the televised bouts and we also hand out our predictions. Let's meet the staff and look at the card for Saturday's event! And don't forget to join 411's live coverage of the event on Saturday night, right here at 411!

THE STAFF:

From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

From The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, Scott Kuczkowski!

From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, Jeremy Lambert!

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!

From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi!

And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!





THE MAIN CARD:
Heavyweight Bout: Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione

Jonathan Solomon: After losing in the semi-finals, Jones talked about retirement. He is 36-years old and I would not be surprised if he does retire from the sport if he loses here. Jones will have his first professional MMA bout outside the state of Florida this weekend (not counting the exhibitions during the TUF show). His strengths are no secret, he's a 6'6" powerful force with a great ground game. He has a suspect chin (he is 4-1, with the loss coming by TKO) and that plays well into Mitrione's strength. Mitrione will make his MMA debut with this fight and the only positive we saw from him on the show was his power. Ironically, Mitrione blabbed about planned fights during the show so he didn't have to fight Marcus. I doubt Jones will be as emotional about Mitrione causing Junk's retina to detach after all this time so I think he shouldn't be rattled. Mitrione does not have a ground game and that will hurt him.

Winner: Marcus Jones, Submission, Round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Well, this might be everyone's last chance to see Marcus "The Darkness" Jones fight if he truly decides to retire (which I hope he doesn't). Mitrione has some decent power in his hands, but I don't think this fight will be contested on the ground. I look for Marcus to take things to the ground and get the first round submission. Scott Junk Lives!!!

Winner: Jones, Submission, Round 1.

Jeremy Lambert: I don't think anyone coming out of TUF10 is a bigger star right now than Marcus Jones. He's the nicest guy in the house but looks like a legit killer when angry. Matt Mittrione on the other hand is probably the biggest heel coming out of the house as no one seems to like him. Jones has almost zero stand up while Mittrione has a rather weak ground game. If Jones can survive the first minute or so then he should have no trouble putting Mittrione on his back and either submitting him or pounding him out.

Winner: Marcus Jones, Submission, Round One

Jeffrey Harris: I think Mitrione is actually 2-0 going into this fight. Marcus Jones clearly has a size and power advantage. Mitrione on the show displayed some quick and powerful hands, but has a clear disadvantage at wrestling and being taken down and dominated on the ground. I don't expect this fight to get out of the first round, and I think Big Baby if he avoids Mitrione's power shots should be able to take Mitrione to the ground and pound him out or dominate him there.

Winner: Marcus Jones, TKO, Round 1

Dan Plunkett: Both guys have good punching power, but standing I'd give Mitrione the advantage. However, I think Jones will take Mitrione to the ground with relative ease and finish him from there.

Winner: Marcus Jones, KO, Round 1

The staff picks Marcus Jones, 5-0.

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Catch-weight (215) Bout: Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander

Jonathan Solomon: Sit back and keep your eyes open because if you blink, you may miss the action. Either man can land the big blow that ends the fight, but Alexander definitely has more tools to his belt. Slice is a simple, step and throw striker. Alexander is trained in Muay Thai and will be able to work out of the clinch. You have to give Kimbo a puncher's chance but I will go with the safer pick.

Winner: Houston Alexander, TKO, Round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Kimbo's jaw was tested by Seth Petruzelli and found questionable. Houston's jaw was tested by James Irvin and was also found weak. I could create an argument here that I think this fight would end in a double knockout, but the odds just don't favor it. Alexander will have the better striking skills while I have to give the power advantage to Kimbo. While this fight probably won't last more than a few minutes, I think Houston will probably put away the street fighting sensation.

Winner: Alexander, TKO, Round 1.

Jeremy Lambert: Whoever lands the first big shot wins. They both have power and they both have suspect chins. Houston is excellent in the clinch while Kimbo would rather keep the distance and unload with the right hand. Neither has much of a ground game but I get this sneaky feeling that Kimbo is going to try and take it to the ground early. Whether he succeeds or not is another story. I favor Houston just because he's a more experienced fighter and has proved more in MMA than Kimbo but you obviously have to give Kimbo the punchers chance. I think everyone will be shocked if this thing goes past the five minute mark.

Winner: Houston Alexander, TKO, Round One

Jeffrey Harris: This fight seemed pretty appropriate though I wanted Alexander/Liddell to happen. Who knows, it still might. Judging from his performance on the show no matter how likeable and humble Kimbo Slice is, he's not a great MMA fighter. He doesn't seem to have improved much. He might've improved since leaving the show, but despite my not believing much in Alexander and his skills, I think he edges out Kimbo standing here. I think Alexander will get a first round KO.

Winner: Houston Alexander, KO, Round 1

Samer Kadi: People seem to think that this is a pick em's fight and there's very little to separate both fighters. I disagree with that notion as I feel Alexander's striking, flawed as it is, is more developed and refined than Kimbo's. I'm not saying Kimbo does not have a chance. He has a decent one, as all he needs to do is catch Houston with a clean right to the chin. But Alexander has the more versatile striking particularly from the inside where he possesses a pretty decent clinch game. Kimbo has admitted to suffering during the weight cut so he will need to finish this one early before he gasses out. In the end, I see Alexander softening up with a few leg kicks before finishing him with some uppercuts/knees from the clinch.

Winner: Houston Alexander, TKO, Round 1.

Dan Plunkett: This is Alexander's fight to lose. Both guys have power, but Alexander is the faster, better striker. In his last fight, he showed good leg kicks, something we have yet to see him do in the UFC. Add in his advantage in the clinch, and I can't pick against Alexander here.

Winner: Houston Alexander, KO, Round 1

The staff picks Houston Alexander, 6-0.

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Lightweight Bout: Frankie Edgar (#9 LW) vs. Matt Veach

Jonathan Solomon: This is a strange fight for Edgar to take if you believe he is so close to earning a title shot. Veach is 11-0 and 1-0 in the UFC after his TKO win over Matt Grice in February. Veach is a wrestler out of Matt Hughes' camp and has power in his hands. Edgar is coming off a big win over Sean Sherk in May and also has a mix of wrestling with boxing to his credit. I am going with the UFC vet here as Edgar has big wins over the likes of Sherk, Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher, Tyson Griffin and Jim Miller. Don't take Veach lightly though because Edgar may find his title hopes dashed.

Winner: Frank Edgar, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Edgar is a beast and this will only be Veach's second UFC fight. I could go into detail about how impressive Veach was against Matt Grice, but the truth is that Frankie Edgar is a huge step up in competition compared to Grice. Despite Veach's wrestling prowess (and the fact that he trains with the H.I.T. Squad), I think Edgar will own this fight wherever he takes it. Hopefully Frankie can finish, since he hasn't done so since July 2007, but I'm not betting on it.

Winner: Edgar, Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: Unless Frankie Edgar is overlooking Matt Veach, he won't lose this fight. Edgar is one of the best Lightweights in the UFC with only one loss on his record and good wins over Tyson Griffin and Sean Sherk. Veach is an up and coming guy who may be a contender one day but right now he just doesn't have the experience and skills to hang with someone like Frankie Edgar. Frankie Edgar doesn't finish many fights but I think he finishes this one and makes a statement in the Lightweight division.

Winner: Frankie Edgar, TKO, Round Two

Jeffrey Harris: In response to others, you can't ride on a decision win over Sean Sherk for a year when guys like BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez are fighting for the title and you have other tough opponents like Tyson Griffin and a reinvigorated Joe Stevenson and Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz also hanging around at lightweight. Like it or not, that win did not clinch a title shot for Edgar. Edgar's already lost to Maynard, who after beating Diaz, could be in line for a shot as well. So if Edgar truly wants to be a contender and get a title shot he has to keep taking fights against good, tough guys, keep winning and keep looking dominant. That's what Kenny Florian did to get his title shot. Still, I like Edgar in this fight and I expect him to pull out the decision win.

Winner: Frank Edgar, Decision

Samer Kadi: Undefeated Matt Veach faces a huge step up in competition when he steps inside the Octagon with top ten lightweight Frankie "The Answer" Edgar. Veach is a wrestler out of Matt Hughes' camp. Similar to Hughes, Veach possesses some good submissions to go with his wrestling. Frankie Edgar's wrestling is a notch above however. In addition to that, Edgar is naturally more explosive and will have a speed advantage. In the Sean Sherk fight, Edgar showed some really good hands as he out-boxed "The Muscle Shark" for three rounds using very good footwork and head movement. I expect more of the same from Edgar in this fight as he stays in line for a potential title shot.

Winner: Frankie Edgar, Unanimous Decision.

Dan Plunkett: Edgar should take this fight. He has better stand-up along with good wrestling. "The Answer" may not finish this fight, but it should be a relatively easy win for him.

Winner: Frankie Edgar, Decision

The staff picks Frankie Edgar, 6-0.

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Heavyweight Bout: Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub

Jonathan Solomon: Big surprise, Roy Nelson is fighting for the six-figure contract. As for Schaub, he is a dangerous fighter. He is 4-0 in MMA with the longest fight lasting a minute and seven seconds. He is a purple belt in BJJ and a Golden Gloves boxing champion. We saw his power during the show and he is not flustered if he's taken to the mat. Nelson was one of the better free-agent heavyweights before signing on to do TUF. Nelson is 13-4 with only one loss by knockout (the other three came by decision). He is 0-2 in his last two fights as he was knocked out by Andrei Arlovski (in a controversial fight) and then lost to Jeff Monson this past March. Nelson is a black belt in BJJ and is a solid striker as well. Nelson may have a problem if he decides to stand and trade with Schaub. As long as he's able to take him down, he should be able to coast to victory.

Winner: Roy Nelson, Submission, Round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: Schaub is great on the ground and even better on the feet, but I somehow thing Nelson will just be a bit better in all areas despite this. Nelson also has an excellent chin and won't be rattled simply because Schaub might "catch him" with a shot. This fight will stay on the feet until Nelson decides to take it to the ground at which time it will only be a matter of time before Nelson gets the submission or TKO victory.

Winner: Nelson, Submission, Round 2.

Jeremy Lambert: Was is just me or did Schaub come off way worse than Nelson with his post fight celebrating? Schaub is good on the feet and has power but his ground game didn't really impress me all that much, especially in the fight against Marcus. He was able to survive and even escape from mount but a better and more experienced fighter would have put him away. Roy Nelson is that better and more experienced fighter. He should be able to hang with Schaub on the feet because he has power and a solid chin and on the ground he's leagues better than Schaub. Nelson established the crucifix as his finishing move this past season and you just know he's going to look for that position again in this fight. I don't know if he'll finish with the crucifix but I do think he gets it to the ground and finishes off Schaub.

Winner: Roy Nelson, Submission, Round One

Jeffrey Harris: Despite net fans constantly crudding on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, Schaub looked good on the show and came off like a good prospect. I'm not sure if Schaub is ideal at heavyweight, but we'll probably know from this fight. I give the experience and edge factor to Roy Nelson, who despite his critics is a good, strong fighter and knows how to fight. Roy has faced and gone up against big names and looked good in doing so. This fight, I think is Roy's to win being the more experienced and superior grappler and BJJ artist. Roy needs to keep this on the ground where it's his world.

Winner: Roy Nelson, Submission, Round 1

Samer Kadi: Roy Nelson will come into the fight as the overwhelming favorite and rightfully so. While Schaub will have to deal with the pressure of stepping in for the biggest fight of his career, Nelson has been there and done that. Nelson has competed at the highest level while Schaub has only four professional fights to his credit. Needless to say, the difference in experience is huge. Furthermore, Schaub has looked vulnerable on the ground in his fight with Demico Rogers and Marcus Jones. And that is exactly where Roy Nelson will put him. Both Rogers and Jones were able to take Schaub down and pass his guard, and while he was able to scramble back up, Roy Nelson is a different animal. He knows how to use his weight to control guys and like him or not, the guy is phenomenal on the ground. Schaub's best hope would be to catch Nelson standing up but Roy's stand up isn't horrible by any means and he has too much experience to fall into the trap of a slugfest.

Winner: Roy Nelson, TKO, Round 2.

Dan Plunkett: Surprise, surprise, the two favorites to win the show are fighting for the contract. I'd give Schaub a bit of an advantage in the striking department, if he wins this fight it will most likely be as a result of that. Being a BJJ black belt, Nelson will have the advantage on the ground. "Big Country" has made a point of finishing his fights on the crucifix position on the show, and I think he gets another win from there here.

Winner: Roy Nelson, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Roy Nelson, 6-0.

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Light Heavyweight Bout: Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones (#13 LHW)

Jonathan Solomon: Both guys are accomplished amateur wrestlers so you know what that means, STAND-UP WAR. Hamill has been criticized for relying too much on his striking when he is such a solid wrestler. He is on a nice streak of knockouts and will likely have to knock out Jones if he wants to finish the fight. For Bones Jones, this is his toughest challenge to date. For once, he may not be able to fling his opponents around. I hope we see a german suplex or two, but I'm not counting on it. Jones, as a striker, is not your average fighter. He will come at awkward angles and let his hands, elbows and legs fly. I'm not so sure we will see a knockout because both men's chins have not been tested much of late. I will give the edge to Jones because of his abnormal striking with the belief the majority of the fight will be fought standing.

Winner: Jonathan Bones Jones, Decision.

Scott Kuczkowski: Rich Franklin demonstrated that Matt Hamill can be stopped; the question is whether or not Jones can execute that same gameplan. Hamill boasts a better wrestling pedigree, so I think Jones will want to keep this on the feet. Jones uses some unique striking and will probably look to stay on the outside to use his reach. Hamill will want to clinch and use his strength to control the pace. Jones should be able to keep this fight on the feet and has the best chances of winning. Hamill's striking is effective, but I don't think he has the skills to out strike Jones.

Winner: Jones, Decision.

Jeremy Lambert: I'm really looking forward to this fight. Both guys are good wrestlers with Hamill being one of the strongest wrestlers at 205 and Jones being one of the most athletic, they both like to strike with Hamill always moving forward and throwing with power while Jones relies more on his speed and creativeness, and they both need that big win to elevate them in the Light Heavyweight division. I favor Jones in this fight just because I think his speed and athleticism is going to give Hamill a lot of problems. Hamill is a tough guy to finish as he seems to have a rock hard head but I think Jones will be able to stick and move, exploit the many holes in Hamill's defense, and win the decision.

Winner: Jon Jones, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I really just hope this is as good as a fight as it looks on papers as fights like Clay Guida/Roger Huerta and Clay Guida/Diego Sanchez were and turned out to be FOTYC. I really like both guys, but Jones now after joining Jackson's camp, and with how Jones has looked in his previous fights, I'm going with Jones all the way. Hamill's looked really good in his last two fights. However, his striking in the Reese Andy and Franklin fights looked rather sloppy. I think Jones with his more dynamic and effective striking should be able to get around that. The other thing is Hamill is another fighter that's relied more on his striking and less on his wrestling. That's also something Jones should take advantage of. Still, if they stand and bang and let it all hang out this could very well be an amazing fight. Hamill looked much improved in his last fight with Munoz not being able to damage or take Hamill down at all. It could be a long night for both guys.


Winner: Jonathan Bones Jones, Decision.

Samer Kadi: I'm really looking forward for this fight. Hamill possesses the wrestling pedigree to cause Jones some problems, but so did Jake O'Brien. Despite his brutal knockout win over Mark Munoz, Hamill's stand up remains pretty mediocre and his striking defense still needs a lot of work. Jones' striking on the other hand is far more polished, if not flawless. His reach, speed and footwork will likely cause Hamill a lot of problems. Training with Greg Jackson's camp now, you can also expect Jones to add some tactical discipline to his flashy style. Jones also happens to be one of the best athletes in the division and a very good wrestler himself, so he's pretty much a bad match up for "The Hammer".

Winner: Jon Jones, Unanimous Decision.

Dan Plunkett: This fight is a very big test for Jon Jones. Hamill is, on paper at least, the better wrestler of the two. Jones doesn't think Hamill will be at an advantage in that department though since he is fresh out of college, while Hamill hasn't wrestler competitively in years. Despite Jones' reasoning, I think Hamill will have a bit of an advantage in wrestling. However, I think this fight stays standing long enough for Jones to score some points and his famous spinning back elbow.

Winner: Jon Jones, Decision

The staff picks Jon Jones, 6-0.

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