411’s MMA Roundtable Preview: UFC 107 - Penn vs. Sanchez

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 12.11.2009

BJ Penn defends the lightweight championship against Diego Sanchez, Frank Mir looks to rebound from his UFC 100 loss when he takes on Cheick Kongo, Kenny Florian and Clay Guida look to get back on the winning track when they do battle, Paul Buentello returns to face Stefan Struve and more! Check out the full roundtable for details and join 411 for our live coverage of the show Saturday night!



WELCOME:
UFC makes their first trip to Memphis as BJ Penn looks to continue his dominance of the lightweight division when he takes on Diego Sanchez. Also, Frank Mir looks to bounce back from his loss to Brock Lesnar when he takes on devastating striker Cheick Kongo. Plus, Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida and much more. Enough intro, let's get to meeting the staff and then onto the picks!

THE STAFF:

From the Takedown MMA News Report, Daniel Bonnizzio!

From The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, Scott Kuczkowski!

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!

From TBerg's Top 10, Todd Bergman!

From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

From the MMA Legacy, Bill Wannop!

From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, Jeremy Lambert!

From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi!

And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!





THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
Welterweight Bout: T.J. Grant vs. Kevin Burns

Daniel Bonnizzio: TJ Grant, Submission, RD 2
Scott Kuczkowski: Grant, Submission, Round 2.
Jeffrey Harris: Burns, DEC.
Todd Bergman: T.J. Grant, TKO, 3rd Round
Jonathan Solomon: Grant, Submission, Round 2
Bill Wannop: Grant, TKO, Rd3
Jeremy Lambert: Burns, Decision
Samer Kadi: Kevin Burns, Split Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Grant, Decision
The staff picks T.J. Grant, 6-3

Welterweight Bout: Damarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia

Daniel Bonnizzio: Edgar Garcia, TKO, RD 2
Scott Kuczkowski: Johnson, Submission, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Johnson, Sub, Round 1.
Todd Bergman: Edgar Garcia, KO, 1st Round
Jonathan Solomon: Johnson, TKO, Round 2
Bill Wannop: Johnson, Decision
Jeremy Lambert: Garcia, Decision
Samer Kadi: Edgar Garcia, TKO, Round 2.
Dan Plunkett: Garcia, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Edgar Garcia, 5-4

Middleweight Bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares

Daniel Bonnizzio: Rousimar Palhares, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Linhares, TKO, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Palhares, Sub, Round 2.
Todd Bergman: Rousimar Palhares, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Palhares, Decision
Bill Wannop: Palhares, Submission, Rd2
Jeremy Lambert: Palhares, Decision
Samer Kadi: Rousimar Palhares, Unanimous Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Palhares, Decision
The staff picks Rousimar Palhares, 8-1

Welterweight Bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch

Daniel Bonnizzio: Johny Hendricks, TKO, RD 2
Scott Kuczkowski: Hendricks, TKO, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Hendricks, TKO, Round 1.
Todd Bergman: Johny Hendricks, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Hendricks, Decision
Bill Wannop: Hendricks, TKO, Rd2
Jeremy Lambert: Hendricks, TKO, Round 1
Samer Kadi: Johny Hendricks, TKO, Round 2.
Dan Plunkett: Hendricks, Decision
The staff picks Johny Hendricks, 9-0

Lightweight Bout: Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson

Daniel Bonnizzio: Shane Nelson, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Wiman, TKO, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Wiman, TKO, Round 2.
Todd Bergman: Matt Wiman, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Wiman, Decision
Bill Wannop: Wiman, Submission, Rd2
Jeremy Lambert: Wiman, Decision
Samer Kadi: Matt Wiman, Unanimous Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Wiman, Decision
The staff picks Matt Wiman, 8-1

Middleweight Bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Alan Belcher

Daniel Bonnizzio: Wilson Gouveia, TKO, RD 2
Scott Kuczkowski: Gouveia, TKO, Round 2.
Jeffrey Harris: Belcher, DEC.
Todd Bergman: Wilson Gouveia, TKO, 2nd Round
Jonathan Solomon: Belcher, Decision
Bill Wannop: Gouveia, Decision
Jeremy Lambert: Gouveia, TKO, Round 2
Samer Kadi: Wilson Gouveia, Unanimous Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Belcher, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Wilson Gouveia, 6-3

THE MAIN CARD:
Heavyweight Bout: Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

Daniel Bonnizzio: Another classic striker vs grappler match where Buentello is going to look to use his superior boxing skills to take Struve's head home with him. Struve has been knocked out before (in his UFC debut by Junior dos Santos) so he doesn't have a legendary chin on him, but I think that he's going to know that Paul is going to come in swinging and is going to have a good enough gameplan for it. Buentello doesn't exactly have the grappling credentials that Struve brings to the table and I can see this going much the same way most of the Headhunter's losses have come.

Winner: Stefan Struve, Submission, RD 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Struve is on a two fight winning streak and has a nice little following, but Buentello is a veteran with a ton of experience against top competition. Struve will have a 7 inch height advantage against Buentello, who will probably have to use his jab and a lot of footwork to keep Struve at bay. If Struve gets this to the ground and can get a dominant position, he could cause Buentello some trouble, but unless that happens, I see Paul taking this.

Winner: Buentello, TKO, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris: Struve's put together a couple of strong little performances but I feel those were against lesser heavyweights. Buentello is a seasoned veteran with a lot of experience and heavy hands. I say Buentello takes this fight by knockout.

Winner: Buentello, KO, Round 2.

Todd Bergman: This match up was suppose to be another Todd Duffee showcase fight, but he got injured and Stefan Struve took the spot. In reality, there isn't much to say about this fight. Buentello has not truly been submitted since 2001 and yes, I'm not counting the injury submission victory that Overeem has against Paul. Struve is a big tall dude who is great at submissions but lacks the chin and proper stand up to compete with Buentello. It will be a short night of work for Paul as he claims an impressive TKO victory midway through the 1st round. In case you have forgotten, the saying goes as follows: "Don't fear me, fear the consequences."

Winner: Paul Buentello, TKO, 1st Round

Jonathan Solomon: Headhunter Buentello is back in the UFC for the first time since 2006 (he went 5-1 outside the UFC with his lone defeat coming at the hands of Alistair Overeem). Buentello takes his 24-10 record into the octagon with his kickboxing background. Buentello is a large man at 6'2" and over 240 pounds, but Struve is one of the biggest fighters at 6'11" and over 260 pounds. Struve is a kickboxer with an 18-3 MMA record. Ironically, Struve has won fourteen of those fights by submission. Next to Junior Dos Santos (Struve lost), this is his biggest test to date. A back story for Buentello is the fact that he has not been allowed to train at American Kickboxing Academy after he hired outside representation to help him raise his profile. AKA's leadership suspended Buentello from the gym but I would assume a man of his experience, this factor would not cause him any trouble preparing for a fight. Buentello has not been submitted since 2001 so this has the makings to be one hell of a fight.

Winner: Stefan Struve, TKO, Round 2

Bill Wannop: Here we have a hard matchup to call in that Buentello is more of the striker and Struve is more a submission fighter. I feel that Buentello is too much of a seasoned veteran to be caught in any submission, so I look for him to finish Struve in the second round by TKO.
Winner: Buentello, TKO, Rd2

Jeremy Lambert: This is the first of a few grappler vs. striker battles on the card. Struve is a good kickboxer but Buentello's main strength is standing and throwing heavy hands. Struve is very good on the ground, using his long limbs to control his opponent. I think Struve is able to survive on his feet and even if he does get dropped, as long as he's not unconscious, it might not be a bad thing. If the fight hits the ground then Struve will have his work cut out trying to submit Buentello but I'm on the Struve bandwagon right now and I think he'll be able to tap Buentello.

Winner: Stefan Struve, Submission, Round 2

Samer Kadi: Paul Buentello makes his return to the UFC where he once challenged for the heavyweight title. Awaiting him is Dutch submission machine Stefan Struve. Struve is particularly dangerous from the bottom, where his long lanky legs allow him to set up some very dangerous triangle chokes. If Struve fails to take Buentello down, he won't hesitate to pull guard. For Buentello the gameplan is simple, he needs to stay on his feet. His takedown defense isn't the best but despite being submitted before in his career, his last submission loss (not due to strikes) came way back in 2001. I think Buentello's is too experienced to fall prey for a submission at this stage of his career and I expect him to stop Struve midway through the second round. Don't fear him…

Winner: Paul Buentello, TKO, Round 2.

Dan Plunkett: I'm kind of surprised to see Buentello as the underdog in this fight. Buentello is very confident going into this fight; he sees some flaws in Struve's striking game he wants to expose. I like "The Headhunter" in this one.

Winner: Paul Buentello, KO, Round 1

The staff picks Paul Buentello, 6-3.

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Lightweight Bout: Kenny Florian (#5 LW) vs. Clay Guida

Daniel Bonnizzio: The leading FOTN candidate pits the losers of the classic loser's bracket against each other in a battle for relevance in a deep division. Kenny has some of the bext striking in the UFC 155 talent pool and solid BJJ skills, but Clay is known as the kind of guy you can't knock out and has the most stifling wrestling I have ever seen. Although Kenny is known for finishing fights, I don't think that is going to be the case here but Kenny keeps a hold on his top 5 status by grinding out the decision win with pinpoint precision Muay Thai skills over the always tough Guida.

Winner: Kenny Florian, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Obviously Guida will want to try and take this to the ground where he can man-hump Florian for the entire fight and get the decision win; I don't that gameplan is disputed. Florian will have to keep his feet on the ground and keep Guida off him if he wants to win. Florian has a good sprawl, which he will need very badly during this fight. While a number of people think Guida is a bad matchup for Florian, I think KenFlo will come in with a good gameplan. If Guida can mug Florian for 3 rounds, he'll take the decision, but I think Florian will pull a Huerta and time a Guida shot to put him away.

Winner: Florian, Submission, Round 3.

Jeffrey Harris: A very interesting fight between two favorite UFC lightweights. Both have good cardio and conditioning which definitely gives this fight a pretty good chance of going the distance. I'm not sure what Guida will do here if he will go full on guns blazing against Florian as he has before or be a little more patient like he was in the Diaz fight. Both guys are coming off a loss here, so I'm expecting a "patient" fight that will go to decision. I think Florian will use his superior reach and try to avoid getting into a brawl with Guida.

Winner: Florian, DEC.

Todd Bergman: It sounds pretty crazy but I feel like all the pressure coming into this fight is on Clay Guida. For all the "exciting" fights that Guida has put on, he's yet to have a signature win inside the Octagon. And I don't think he will get that in this fight. Guida is much too one-dimensional and, while it might take some time, Florian will expose him in this fight. Florian is completely comfortable on his back unlike a vast majority of Guida's previous opponents. Clay isn't known for his submission defense, and, again, his style will cost him. It will happen in the 3rd round, but Florian will get a hotly-contested submission victory. The next logical step for Florian would be to take on Sherk in a rematch.

Winner: Kenny Florian, Submission, 3rd Round

Jonathan Solomon: This fight has a lot of expectations as Clay Guida returns to the octagon. Both men are back in action for the first time since suffering defeats this past summer (Guida to Sanchez, Florian to Penn). Guida may not be a fighter who finishes each contest but he sure does run on full throughout the fight. He is a wrestler with solid striking while Florian is jiu-jitsu black belt and a Muay Thai striker. This should be a great fight, at least on paper. Florian may have the advantage on the feet with his slick strikes and once on the ground, he may even have the advantage there. If Guida wants to take him down, he likely will be able to. My question is what can Guida do if he does take Florian down, to win rounds or possibly finish the fight? That is the problem I foresee with him. Florian is not fighting a fellow black belt and he has had success against wrestlers recently. He defeated both Roger Huerta and Joe Stevenson in 2008 and Guida more or less, a version of those two men.

Winner: Kenny Florian, Submission, Round 3

Bill Wannop:While many people love Clay Guida to death, I am not one of them. While his conditioning and energy in a fight is matched by no one, I tend to think he is a boring fighter. When he is winning a fight, he tends to simply use his wrestling to hold fighters down, and inflict minimal damage. His striking is good but not great, and the only way he seems to win fights is by out working oppoenets and winning by decision. Of his last 8 victories 6 have come by decision. I look for Kenny Florian to surprise everyone and run through Guida the same way he did Stevenson.

Winner: Florian, Submission, Rd1

Jeremy Lambert: THE Cardio Freak, Clay Guida returns to action in what I think is a very good match up for him. Kenny Florian is a better fighter than Guida but Florian's biggest weakness is Guida's biggest strength. Florian is a better and more well rounded striker but he relies a lot on his kicks and that's not a good thing when facing a guy like who goes for takedowns as much as Guida. Florian doesn't have great takedown defense while Guida's takedowns are explosive and relentless. Florian is better on the ground than Guida but Guida's submission defense is good enough to stifle anything Florian throws at him from the bottom position. Guida's top control is very good and he stays just active enough to not force the ref to stand them up. If Forian can keep the fight on the feet then he'll be able to outpoint Guida en route to a decision but I can't see that happening.

Winner: Clay Guida, Decision

Samer Kadi: I couldn't be more excited for this fight. On paper, what makes this fight so interesting is the different elements these two bring to the table. Guida is primarily a wrestler who pushes a relentless pace and doesn't give his opponent the time to rest. Florian on the other hand is a cerebral fighter who likes to pick his spots and use his footwork to land strikes on the outside and set up possible takedowns where he can use his very solid top game. While takedown defense has never been Kenny's forte, Guida is a different wrestler than someone like Sean Sherk. Sherk possesses an explosive double leg takedown and a lightning quick shot. Guida on the other hand likes to utilize the fence to set up takedowns. But with Kenny's excellent footwork and movement, that may be easier said and done. Kenny's striking is far superior to Guida's although he doesn't have the power to put him away. Clay will likely look to time Florian's kicks as well. Despite being a very capable BJJ black belt, Kenny doesn't operate particularly well off of his back. The fight will be close, but I think Florian's striking and footwork will ultimately be the difference maker.

Winner: Kenny Florian, Unanimous Decision.

Dan Plunkett: This is an extremely interesting fight. Guida will have the wrestling advantage, but Kenny will have both the striking and submission advantages. Clay is a very tough guy to finish and I see him riding Kenny for a good amount of the fight. It may look somewhat like Guida vs. Diaz, but I think Kenny will get more offense in, which will give him the decision.

Winner: Kenny Florian, Decision.

The staff picks Kenny Florian, 8-1.

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Welterweight Bout: Jon Fitch (#2 WW) vs. Mike Pierce

Daniel Bonnizzio: I admit I was excited by this fight when it was first announced. 2 of the only 3 men to beat Brock Larson facing off in a match with title implications around it. However, with the second straight loss suffered by Larson, it puts a little dimmer on the luster surrounding the fight. Pierce has good enough wrestling to grind a decision against Larson, something not easy to do, but I feel that Fitch will be good enough to stay ahead of him. The former Purdue wrestling captain is notoriously hard to finish (ask GSP) and somehow I don't think that Pierce has the KO skills needed to stop Fitch. Expect another fight where Fitch uses his grinding grappling skills to outpoint Pierce en route to a decision win.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Mike Pierce had a good showing against Brock Larson, but Jon Fitch is a huge step up in competition. Fitch will prove to be better than Larson in every way, which will probably be bad news for Pierce. Pierce will have to hope for a lucky punch to finish Fitch, otherwise he will end up on his back against the cage for three rounds getting punched and elbowed in the face. Most likely I think the latter will occur.

Winner: Fitch, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: Definitely not a gimme fight for Pierce after beating Brock Larson, but hey if he wants to prove he's legit or that he can be a champion, Fitch is the type of guy he needs to be able to fight. That said, I see this as another win for Fitch who will have to continue taking fights like this unless GSP loses the title at some point or he mans up and is willing to fight guys like Koscheck and Swick.

Winner: Fitch, DEC.

Todd Bergman: I will be the first to say that I utterly hate this fight. Fitch is stylistically a boring fighter and has a tendency to bore the hell out of everyone in the process. His opponent, Mike Pierce, is essentially the same type of fighter, as he proved in the upset victory over Brock Larson. I'm going down the tried and true route as Fitch takes Pierce down and lays on him for three rounds and then makes a mean face in the camera when they announce him the winner.

Winner: Jon "Mean Face" Fitch, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Mike Pierce is a solid fighter and had a big decision win over Brock Larson three months ago. It ends there. I don't see anything he can do better than Jon Fitch. Pierce's bread and butter is his wrestling background. Well, Jon Fitch just happens to be one of the top wrestlers in MMA. Fitch has fought the best and has only tasted defeat three times (with two losses occurring within his first four career fights). Fitch is dangerous on his feet and can grind out a win with the best of them. A loss for Fitch here would be shocking.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision

Bill Wannop: Is the UFC still holding a grudge over the video game thing with Fitch? This guy seems to not be able to get a high caliber opponent, but at least he is actually on the main card. Fitch has been running through these mid cards guys the UFC has been feeding him and I see no difference with Mike Pierce. Hopefully after this victory Fitch can get an upper level opponent like perhaps a rematch with Alves, Koscheck (training partners or not), Swick or even Rumble Johnson.

Winner: Fitch, Submission, Rd2

Jeremy Lambert: This is a fight where everyone expects Fitch to win and he should win but he needs to do so impressively. It's similar to last week where Frankie Edgar needed to beat Matt Veach impressively so people bought that he was a Lightweight contender and he did just that. If Jon Fitch wants another crack at the Welterweight title, he needs to make a statement by making an example out of Mike Pierce. Fitch is the biggest overall fighter and he's going to be bigger than Pierce. He should win this fight unless he just gets caught. Will it be impressive? I have my doubts.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision

Samer Kadi: In a battle of the wrestlers, former number one contender Jon Fitch takes on Mike Pierce, coming off an impressive win over Brock Larson. This looks to be a very tough matchup on paper for Pierce, as Fitch is the better MMA wrestler. And despite having some seriously heavy hands, Pierce won't be putting someone with Fitch's chin and overall toughness away. Fitch also possesses the better striking, and even though he tends to get lazy, particularly with his leg kicks, Pierce isn't the fighter to exploit that hole. This looks exactly the kind of fight Jon Fitch thrives on, as he will look to grind Mike Pierce into frustration.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Unanimous Decision.

Dan Plunkett: Both guys are wrestlers, but Fitch is a far better MMA fighter than Pierce. If Pierce puts Fitch on his back, it's not inconceivable that he could win by lay and pray. I see Fitch taking this fight rather convincingly though.

Winner: Jon Fitch, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Jon Fitch, 9-0.

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Heavyweight Bout: Frank Mir (#4 HW) vs. Cheick Kongo

Daniel Bonnizzio: The greatest striker in the UFC Heavyweight division against the 2nd best heavyweight BJJ practitioner in the UFC. Cheick certainly has the skills needed to KO Frank, and from his record (Mir's four losses all came by way of TKO) if he wins, that is how it's going to happen. However, I like to think the former champ has enough wits about him to not want to stand with Kongo and is going to exploit Cheick's negative ground game while taking a leg home with him in a classic case of Frank finishing before the 3 minute mark.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, RD 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Did you know Cheick's real name is Cheick Guillaume Ouedraogo? Apparently the Kongo part comes from his nickname, "Kingo Kongo." Thank you wikipedia. Mir would be a fool to test his standup skills against Kongo, who should be the better striker in this bout. Mir must take this fight to the ground, which I think he'll be able to do. While Cheick has worked on his wrestling, Mir is great on the ground and should easily get the submission once it presents itself.

Winner: Mir, Submission, Round 1.

Jeffrey Harris: Mir's done a lot more strength training for this fight and put on a lot of muscle, while Kongo's apparently been training more grappling and BJJ at Wolf's Lair. I like Kongo and I've been very impressed with his victories in the past, but at his age, I just don't see how he can really improve his ground game or takedown defense if he hasn't previously. Was a few extra weeks for the Velasquez fight really going to fix the problems that have plagued him for pretty much his entire MMA career? I think if Mir avoids getting smashed and taken down, his BJJ game will come through. Kongo's a good kickboxer with powerful striking, but he's shown so much vulnerability and weakness on the ground in the past.

Winner: Mir, Sub, Round 1.

Todd Bergman: When this fight was first announced it appeared to be nothing more than a Frank Mir gimme-a-win fight. Now the fight has become a title-eliminator bout and, for some Frank Mir nut-huggers, the questions about his chin are becoming more audible. While Kongo does have great striking power, it seems he has never quite grasped the mental concept of MMA. Mir is no Bobby Fisher in the Octagon but he should be smart enough to realize that taking Kongo down is the way to win the fight. Mir's strong points are boxing and BJJ, not wrestling. Therefore, the takedown aspect might be easier said than done. With all of this said, I think that Kongo will eventually have another brain fart and will take down Mir, and from there, the end is near. Mir wins this fight, but it's going to be much closer than what some people think.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, 1st Round

Jonathan Solomon: Frank Mir wants to fight Brock Lesnar. That fact may be able to play into the hands (and feet) of Cheick Kongo if Mir doesn't consider the Frenchman to be much of a test. In fact, I would laugh my ass off if Mir gets knocked out early in this fight. With that said, I am picking Mir to win this fight. Kongo's ground game is so awful, there is no reason to think Mir will keep it standing for too long. Any time that Kongo spends on the mat is one more second given to Mir to find room for a submission. Unlike Cain Velasquez, Mir will snap off a limb in a heartbeat.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, Round 2

Bill Wannop: Kongo has been one of my favorite fighters for a long time, but his inability for him to improve his one huge weakness in his ground game has soured me on him. Fight after fight he gets take down and owned on the ground, and fight after fight we see no improvement in that area. He has even initiated the take downs in some of his fights, only to get reversed multiple times. His opponent Mir has done the opposite and improved upon his weaknesses which were his conditioning and his striking. While Mir is nowhere near the level of striker that Kongo is, he should be more then able to survive on his feet long enough to take Kongo down and submit him. I can actually see the fight taking place in my head. Kongo actually goes for a takedown and gets it on Mir, only for Mir to sweep him or simply hit him with an armbar or triangle.

Winner: Mir, Submission, Rd1

Jeremy Lambert: Let me just say that Frank Mir looked HUGE on the Countdown to UFC 107 show. Whether or not that's a good or bad thing will be determined on Saturday. If it stays standing then Kongo is going to rough up Mir. Mir can hold his own on the feet but his striking isn't at the level of Kongo's and he doesn't have the power of Kongo. On the ground it's all Mir. Getting it to the ground could be the problem. Mir's wrestling isn't great but Kongo's takedown defense really isn't great. Kongo is also a tough guy to finish and has good survival skills on the ground. Frank Mir just seems really motivated right now and a motivated Mir is potentially very scary. He wants the third fight against Lesnar and he's as big as he's ever been with muscle not fat.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, Round One

Samer Kadi: This fight will come down to whether Frank Mir really believes his own hype as an improved kickboxer. In my opinion, outstriking a deathbed-bound Nogueira and landing one flurry on the ever green Brock Lesnar hardly makes you a top level striker. Kongo on the other hand, is a legit elite striker in the heavyweight division. His reach, power and diverse striking are more than Mir can handle on the feet. Kongo showed in the Cain Velasquez fight that he can counter really well and drop a guy while moving backwards, and he's also very dangerous when he's the aggressor and gets in close and utilizes the clinch. Mir's footwork remains a bit amateurish, as he moves straight forward while generally throwing predictable combinations. I think Kongo's takedown defense is underrated. While it was almost non existent early in his career, he has worked on it as off late and he uses his natural strength to stay vertical. Being taken down by Cain Velasquez is nothing to be ashamed off. Once on his back though, Kongo is a fish out of water. If Mir manages to take the fight to the ground and get on top, the fight will be over in seconds. But Mir hardly possesses the purest shot in the division and will have a hard time taking the fight to the ground. Pulling guard is also not an option as Kongo has some serious ground and pound, I would go as far as calling it his bread and butter. We all know Frank doesn't react well to being hit and I think after Kongo lands a couple of shots, he will get desperate and shoot recklessly where Kongo will meet him with a counter right that ends Frank's night.

Winner: Cheick Kongo, KO, Round 1.

Dan Plunkett: This is just a matter of can Cheick catch Frank while the fight is standing. If not, Frank is going to take him down and submit him, probably after the first takedown he lands.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, Round 1.

The staff picks Frank Mir, 8-1.

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UFC Lightweight Championship: BJ Penn (#1 LW) vs. Diego Sanchez (#7 LW)


Daniel Bonnizzio: Kenny Florian had a decent gameplan at UFC 101: try to take BJ down and wear him out. It would have worked too...had Kenny been bigger and a better wrestler. Diego Sanchez has those attributes about him: he is a large lightweight (formerly a longtime welterweight) and has an aggressive wrestling base to compliment his forward forward forward style. If anyone can push BJ into deep waters, it's Diego. However, if Florian has some of the best striking at 155, BJ has THE best at 155. His boxing is often talked of as the best in MMA, evinced by his use of the jab as a weapon, not a rangefinder. Anything Diego can do, BJ can do better. Diego has good hands, BJ has legendary boxing. Diego has a strong top game, BJ is dangerous anywhere. Diego has good conditioning, BJ can push the pace against longtime decision lovers (see Sherk, Sean). I just cannot fathom anyway Diego can walk away the victor here. Eventually, BJ's ground skills are going to come into play and when they do, expect Diego to be playing the three-tap melody before the match is over.

Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, RD 4

Scott Kuczkowski: While this should be a great fight, I don't think it will be as close as many people think it will be. The reality is that BJ is on another level than the rest of the Lightweight division and I also think he hits harder than anyone else Diego has ever faced. Diego might be able to outhustle Penn for the first few rounds, but BJ will eventually get things to the ground, deliver some ground and pound, and eventually finish Sanchez (probably with the rear naked choke). Sanchez might delay things with his hustle, but I think Penn winning is an eventuality.

Winner: Penn, Submission, Round 4.

Jeffrey Harris: Well I'm definitley not going for the underdog in this title bout (look at how that will backfire on me). I really like Diego and while he's looked good so far at lightweight I'm still not completely convinced he's 100% ready for this fight or a fighter like BJ Penn. People need to stop questioning BJ Penn's cardio and conditioning. At lightweight it's definitely not been an issue for him because he beat Pulver, he beat Stevenson and won the belt, and then he defended it twice first against the former champ Sherk and then against two-time contender, Florian. It would be absolutely ridicilous, moronic, and pathetic for Diego Sanchez to go into this fight expecting BJ Penn to gas like Florian did. Penn didn't even look especially bad cardio and conditioning wise for the GSP fight. He was just a severely undersized welterweight getting smashed by a bigger, stronger welterweight who has developed into one of the best P4P fighters in the world. Penn's attitude and head definitely seems to be in the right place right now and he's at least stopped talking about greasing and cheating. I think while Sanchez might put up a good front for a couple of rounds, BJ Penn will eventually wear him down in the third and win however he wants.

Winner: Penn, TKO, Round 3.

Todd Bergman: For months I have claimed that Diego Sanchez is going to be the guy that beats BJ Penn. You all have laughed and called me various names that I may or may not have deserved. Yet, I'm a man of my word and I'm taking Sanchez to win this bout. However, I don't think that Sanchez will finish the fight. Instead, I'm taking Sanchez to steal the fight in the championship rounds. Much like the Griffin vs. Rampage fight, it's going to be controversial but, in the end, Sanchez will be the new champion. Penn's cardio has been questioned before, but the last few guys, outside of GSP, that he has fought have been terrified of him. Sanchez won't be afraid to mix it up with Penn no matter where the fight goes.

Winner: NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION Diego Sanchez, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Diego Sanchez has been a step away from a UFC championship shot several times in his career since becoming the original ultimate fighter. Over four years later, he will step inside the octagon to fight the best lightweight fighter in the sports history. B.J. Penn (as a lightweight) is as close to unstoppable as any fighter in history. His boxing is strong, his takedown defense is legendary and his jiu-jitsu is exceptional. The only potential weak point in his game is his historically weak gas tank. You know what? I say bull. As a lightweight, he went deep into the fourth round against Kenny Florian and never looked slow. He went into the third round with musclebound Sean Sherk and beat him. Penn will not be carrying anywhere near 170 pounds on his frame so the talk that he may run out of gas, is just that, talk. Diego Sanchez does pose an interesting match-up for Penn. Sanchez may be one of the best overall lightweights without any glaring weaknesses. He has never been finished (and one of his two losses, he fought while being seriously ill), he as a motor that never quits and he brings to the table a superb mix of wrestling, jiu-jitsu and striking. I can't wait to see what Sanchez does when Penn stuffs his takedowns and forces the New Mexico-born fighter to switch his strategy and try something new. It comes down to the simple fact that Penn is better than Sanchez in every facet of the sport. Lastly, I won't be caught dead picking against B.J. Penn for a second time. I thought Kenny Florian could pull off the upset and while I think Sanchez is a tougher opponent than Florian, Penn made it look easy when he dismissed Florian. Enjoy it folks because this is some kind of greatness we are watching.

Winner: Your winner and STILL UFC lightweight champion, B.J. Penn, Decision

Bill Wannop: I have been saying it for months, that the only person who can beat BJ Penn in the lightweight division is Diego Sanchez. Well the time is finally here and I stick by my statement. Sanchez has massive intensity, great endurance and a huge work rate, so he should be able to out hustle and muscle Penn. Penn has better boxing, but overall striking may be even due to Sanchez better use of his legs for head and body kicks. On the ground Penn is better, but again this may be offset by Diego's ability to scramble. The thing that puts Sanchez in the winner's circle is his cardio that should be far above Penn's especially is Diego pushes the pace early. I think come the third round Penn will be out of gas and in a whole lot of trouble, as Diego will keep up the intense pace and break him. I am just not sure if Sanchez will be able to finish Penn.
Winner: New Champion Diego Sanchez, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: Diego Sanchez has the best shot of anyone to beat BJ Penn in the Lightweight division. But this is BJ Penn at Lightweight that we're talking about. He's fast, he hits hard, his balance is the most incredible thing I've ever seen, and his ground game is the best in the world. The only question about BJ Penn is his cardio compared to Sanchez'. Sanchez is a cardio freak. He pushes a quick pace and rarely seems to gas. He could use the same strategy Kenny Florian used at UFC 101 and do so with better success because he won't gas himself out. That's really the only advantage Sanchez has in this fight. His striking is very predictable compared to Penn's, they both hit hard but also have great chins, Penn's takedown defense should be good enough to stuff the takedown of Sanchez, and Penn's ground game is certainly good enough to submit Sanchez. I like Diego's super weird crazy confidence though and that's really what has led him to a lot of his success. That type of confidence and work ethic could pay off against someone like Penn who has a more cocky confidence and a questionable work ethic. Sanchez doesn't have the skills to beat Penn but he has the mental level to beat him. Will that be enough? I don't think so. But I've been wrong before.

Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round Four

Samer Kadi: I gave my thoughts on this fight in this week's edition of "The Rear Naked Column", so I'll keep it short here. Diego doesn't have the best wrestling in the world and will have a hard time taking BJ down. He usually sets up the takedown from the clinch, and I just don't think he can afford to be there with BJ. Furthermore, Penn possesses much better striking. Penn will use his superior boxing, particularly his jab to keep Diego at bay and will look to counter with the right hook. Sanchez can't afford to get into a brawl with BJ like he did with Guida, and his ground game his very top reliant, and I'm not sure he'll find himself in that position against Penn. The fight will be competitive but I think Penn outclasses Sanchez on his way to a late stoppage.

Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 4.

Dan Plunkett: I'll keep this pretty short. BJ does everything better than Diego Sanchez (except maybe kicks, but BJ never throws kicks). I don't think BJ will gas out completely in this fight, but should it go to the fifth I'm sure both will be tired due to a fast paced fight. Diego has a chance in this fight but only because he believes in himself so much and he's so relentless. Penn's boxing is better than Sanchez's, and he has good power in his hands, I think that will ultimately be the deciding factor in this fight.

Winner: BJ Penn, KO, Round 2.

The staff picks BJ Penn, 7-2.

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THE 411 SURE PICKS ARE: Johny Hendricks and Jon Fitch
THE 411 ANYONE'S GAME BOUT IS: Damarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia

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