Cardio Freak MMA News Report 12.21.09: Predicting The Future of MMA 2010 Edition

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 12.21.2009

This week in Cardio Freak: 50 MMA predictions for 2010 that are sure to be wrong. Plus a review of WEC 45 featuring Donald Cerrone becoming my favorite fighter and Chris Horodecki not being very smart, a review of Strikeforce: Evolution featuring Thomson and Melendez putting on a fight of the year candidate, KING MO being awesome, and Cung Le not being very smart, thoughts on Henderson vs. Shields and Mir vs. Carwin, and so much more. It's more energized than KING MO, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Headline News

It's almost a new year and being a man that likes to get things done early, I figure I would go ahead and get my 50 MMA predictions for 2010 out of the way. Last year I made 50 MMA Predictions for 2009 hoping to get at least 25 of them correct. Now that the year is all but over and I tallied up the numbers, I ended up getting 13 correct. I'm disappointed that I fell way short of my admittedly high goal but I'm happy with getting 13 correct. While some may view that number as a bad luck, not I. 13 happens to be the favorite/lucky number of Ms. Taylor Swift and I view this as just another sign of our increasing fate to be together.



Now, without further ado, here are my 50 MMA predictions for 2010:

1. Chuck Liddell will defeat Tito Ortiz and then retire.
2. Urijah Faber vs. Jose Aldo will take place on PPV.
3. Brock Lesnar will fight in 2010 and he will win.
4. Lesnar vs. Mir 3 will be the biggest MMA buyrate of the year but will not beat the buyrate of Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather.
5. Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, and BJ Penn will not lose in their normal weight classes.
6. Quinton Jackson will fight at least twice.
7. Tito Ortiz will claim to be 100% healthy leading up to a fight and after the fight have multiple injury excuses.
8. Strikeforce will hire Logan Stanton.
9. Fedor Presented by M-1 Global vs. Dan Henderson will take place on PPV.
10. Kimbo Slice will not win a fight.
11. Nick Diaz will fail a post fight drug test but not for weed.
12. Randy Couture will be finished in a fight.
13. Forrest Griffin will not lose.
14. Mirko Cro Cop will retire after losing to Ben Rothwell.
15. Roy Nelson will submit someone with a kimura and break their arm.
16. Frank Mir will win a fight by TKO.
17. Every fight involving Clay Guida will be a Split Decision.
18. John McCarthy will referee a UFC event.
19. Fedor will not lose a round.
20. Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia 4 will take place under the Adrenaline MMA banner.
21. UFC will hire another Octagon Girl after firing the current girl who isn't Arianny Celeste.
22. World Victory Road/Sengoku will go out of business.
23. Alistair Overeem will finally be stripped of the Strikeforce Heavyweight title.
24. Donald Cerrone will win the WEC Lightweight title.
25. Takanori Gomi will not sign with UFC.
26. Bobby Lashley won't fight anyone considered a top Heavyweight in the world.
27. One of the Nogueira brothers will challenge for a UFC title.
28. Stephan Bonnar will be cut by UFC and picked up by Strikeforce.
29. Hong Man Choi vs. Bob Sapp will take place on a DREAM event.
30. Jon Fitch will not finish an opponent.
31. Karo Parisyan vs. Nick Diaz 2 will happen for the Strikeforce Welterweight title.
32. Josh Koscheck will continue to talk shit on his twitter.
33. Matt Hughes won't fight anyone under the age of 35.
34. Matt Serra will drop to Lightweight after losing to Frank Trigg.
35. Dana White won't base jump off the Mandalay Bay.
36. There will be a card with more dropouts than UFC 108.
37. Joe Rogan will be suspended for one show after saying something inappropriate on the air.
38. Keith Jardine will be involved in a fight of the year contender.
39. Rich Franklin will lose a fight by submission.
40. UFC All Access will return, thus meaning the return of Rachelle Leah.
41. Team Blackhouse will hold 3/5 UFC titles at the same time.
42. At least one fighter with "Thiago" or "Silva" in their name will be released or retired.
43. Strikeforce will not have a title fight in the main event unless it involves Fedor.
44. Gina Carano will not fight.
45. Dustin Hazelett will win Submission of the Night every time he wins.
46. UFC will finally change the gladiator intro for events.
47. A former boxer will compete in a MMA fight and lose.
48. Shinya Aoki will not win a fight by submission.
49. Houston Alexander will be signed by Strikeforce and destroyed by Gegard Mousasi.
50. I will see Chuck Liddell's final fight in person.

Feel free to post your own 2010 MMA predictions in the comments section.

Major UFC/WEC News



On December 16, Shane Carwin announced that he will fight Frank Mir at UFC 111. The fight will possibly be for the UFC Interim Heavyweight title depending on the health of current Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar. UFC 111 is scheduled for March 27 in Newark, New Jersey.

I really don't like this fight being for the Interim Heavyweight title. I know Shane Carwin was in line for a title shot before Lesnar's health problems arose but of Mir, Rodrigo Nogueira, and Cain Velasquez, Carwin is clearly the least credible contender of them all. The best solution would be to have a four man mini-tournament with the two winners of Velasquez vs. Nogueira and Carwin vs. Mir facing off for the Interim Heavyweight title. If Lesnar is considered healthy enough to return by then, then they should do Lesnar vs the winner of Carwin vs. Mir since Carwin was in line for the title shot and Mir would be the biggest business. Either way you're getting the potential challenger one more big win before getting a title shot. In a sense it will all end up being the same because the winner of Mir vs. Carwin will be the Interim Heavyweight Champion and then they'll likely fight the winner for Nogueira vs. Velasquez or if Lesnar is deemed healthy they'll unify the titles later in 2010. I'm just a stickler for details and I don't like creating an Interim Title when you can possibly avoid it.

Carwin vs. Mir is interesting because I'm not sure what to completely think of Shane Carwin. He's never gone past the two and a half minute mark of any fight, he's a big strong wrestler, and he hits hard. Frank Mir is certainly the more well rounded fighter and given his recent muscle addition, being overpowered on the ground may not be as easy as Brock Lesnar made it look at UFC 100. I favor Mir just because I'll take his technical striking and newfound power over Carwin's one punch power and I'll take his ground game and newfound size and strength over Carwin's wrestling and power but you can never count out a big strong wrestler with KO power.



WEC 45 took place this past Saturday in Las Vegas. Here are the results:

*Donald Cerrone defeated Ed Ratcliff by Submission (Rear Naked Choke) at 3:47 in Round Three
*Anthony Njokuani defeated Chris Horodecki by TKO (Strikes) at 3:33 in Round One
*Joseph Benavidez defeated Rani Yahya by TKO (Strikes) at 1:35 in Round One
*Scott Jorgensen defeated Takeya Mizugaki by Unanimous Decision (29-28 across)

Donald Cerrone might be my new favorite fighter of all time. He's never in a boring fight and his fight against Ed Ratcliff was no exception. Ratcliff had the advantage early and stumbled Cerrone a couple of times but Cerrone just kept coming forward and took over the fight late in round one. He went on to dominate rounds two and three before putting away Ratcliff late in round three with the submission. Maybe the three knee strikes to the groin slowed Ratcliff down a bit but I think it was just another case of Cerrone starting slow before picking things up and taking over. I guess WEC General Manager got in Cerrone's ear about moving to 145 and calling out Jose Aldo because Cerrone made no mention of moving down after his victory. Here's hoping that Ben Henderson defeats Jamie Varner so we get Cerrone vs. Henderson 2 in a rematch of possibly the best WEC fight in 2009. Donald Cerrone needs to fight on every WEC show because he's that awesome. I would love to see him move up to UFC even though I think he'd have a tough time with all the top-notch wrestlers but he'd make a fight out of it. He's like a Diaz brother with better striking and more power.

What the hell was Chris Horodecki thinking? He literally ran away from Anthony Njokuani and ended up getting kicked in the head for his troubles. It reminded me a lot of Yves Edwards head kick to Josh Thomson except Thomson was trying to throw a spinning backfist as he scrambled to his feet while Horodecki was pulling a Kalib Starnes. Njokuani reminded me a lot of Anderson Silva in this fight just with the way he was standing and throwing his strikes. He's obviously got a long way to go before reaching the level Silva has reached but the potential seems to be there.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Miguel Torres must happen in March. Two guys who like to move forward and just scrap. Benavidez made short work of Yahya with a beautiful combo that ended with an overhand right hand that dropped Yahya and he was finished on the ground. Benavidez' height is going to give him problems but the guy is clearly willing to stand with anyone and make it a fight.

I was actually more impressed with Takeya Mizugaki in losing than I was with Scott Jorgensen in winning. Jorgensen clearly won the fight but Mizugaki seemed to be the more well rounded striker and I was impressed with his ability to pop right back after being takendown and then completing some beautiful throws to takedown Jorgensen. Unfortunately for Mizugaki he got dropped twice in the first round and controlled in the clinch for most of round two, which was enough to give Jorgensen both rounds. Jorgensen hits really hard and is a good wrestler but I don't like his chances against the top guys at 135.

As usual with WEC we got a card with not much in terms of name value but it delivered great action all night.

Minor UFC/WEC News



On December 18, MMAWeekly reported that Sean Sherk had to drop out of his UFC 108 fight with Jim Miller after suffering a nasty cut during training. Later in the day it was reported that Duane Ludwig would replace Sherk against Miller.

I told you Adam Tool. At the rate of all these injuries, we'll end up fighting on the main card. I'm 100% positive we have more name value than Duane Ludwig.

There was a rumor going around last week that Thiago Silva was injured would be forced to pull out of the show but thankfully it was just a rumor. If Silva did indeed after to drop off the event, UFC would have been best served just canceling the show because I doubt they could have found a worthy Light Heavyweight replacement (in terms of a name who should headline a show) in time to fight Evans. If possible, UFC should try to get this card moved to SpikeTV because I can't imagine many people buying this show, which is rather unfortunate as it's a good card top to bottom but has no true main event. I'm intrigued by this event though just because you know something crazy is going to happen. That something crazy will likely be Silva or Evans blowing out their knee as they step forward but still.

As for Miller vs. Ludwig, I'm looking forward to it. I'm a fan of the fighting Miller brothers and Ludwig is an exciting fighter on the feet. It will suck for him when Miller takes him down and pounds him out but as long as it stays standing it'll be a fun fight. I know this won't happen but UFC should swap Sam Stout and Jim Miller, setting up Ludwig vs. Stout and Miller vs. Joe Lauzon as both those fights have far more potential as far as entertainment. Ludwig vs. Stout would be a great fight on the feet while Miller vs. Lauzon would be a great fight between two good all-around fighters. Tell me those fights aren't more interesting than what we're getting now.

Major Strikeforce/Miscellaneous News



Strikeforce: Evolution took place this past Saturday in San Jose, California. Here are the results:

*Scott Smith defeated Cung Le by KO (Punches) at 3:25 in Round Three
*Gilbert Melendez defeated Josh Thomson by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46) to win the Strikeforce Lightweight Title
*Ronaldo Souza defeated Matt Lindland by Submission (Arm Triangle) at 4:18 in Round One
*Muhammed Lawal defeated Mike Whitehead by KO (Punches) at 3:08 in Round One

I must admit that I laughed for a good minute or two after Scott Smith once again pulled off the miracle comeback and knocked out Cung Le. Not because I have anything against Cung Le but because this fight was clearly a showcase fight for Cung as Strikeforce matched him up against a mid-level fighter who was willing to stand with him, he beat the hell out of Smith for 13 minutes, and then ended up losing a fight he had well in hand. Cung did exactly what I expected him to do and that was attack the body of Smith with a variety of kicks. In the process he ended up gassing himself out by throwing unnecessary spinning back kicks at the point in the fight when he didn't need to. That ended up costing him as he was too slow to move away from the punches of Smith and he got caught and finished. I don't know where Cung goes from here as he's now been exposed as just a mediocre fighter with flashy striking and no real power (as Frank Shamrock made sure to remind of us 100 times on commentary). I hope he sticks around because he's an entertaining guy to watch, I just hate how Strikeforce tries to protect him and undeservedly put him in the main event. As for Smith, he's still a mid-level with a lot power who is never out of a fight as long as he's fighting other mid-level fighters. He's really the gatekeeper of a pretty deep Middleweight division.

In what should have been the main event of the evening, Gilbert Melendez recaptured the Strikeforce Lightweight title by defeated Josh Thomson. The fight went a bit like their first fight with Thomson stuffing every takedown attempt from Melendez but Melendez showed some improved striking and Thomson showed some cage rust and his conditioning was clearly affected by the lay off. Thomson seemed to have no answer for the double jab leg kick combo that Melendez constantly threw in the fight and every time they got into a wild exchange, Melendez came out on top thanks to his power. It was a damn entertaining fight and a late Fight of the Year candidate. The next step for both men is likely another rematch as I think Thomson deserves it considering he wasn't finished or decisively dominated and he was coming off the extremely long lay off but it will more than likely happen just because Strikeforce doesn't have much depth at Lightweight unless they bring over guys from DREAM.

I thought "Jacare" turned in the best performance of the night with a very dominating victory over Matt Lindland. Before Vitor Belfort cleaned his clock, Lindland was thought to be a top 5 Middleweight in the world and now I wouldn't be shocked if he was thinking about retirement. Souza looked to have move improved striking and was just moving around a lot better than Lindland. He combined his improved striking with an already world-class ground game to just completely out-class Lindland in every aspect of the sport. I assume Souza vs. Miller 3 is up next and I personally can't wait for that one.

In an outcome that shocked no one, KING MO dominated Mike Whitehead. KING MO just toyed with Whitehead the entire fight before finally dropping him on the feet and pounding him unconscious on the ground. It was another impressive performance against a guy he should have had an impressive performance against. Hopefully now they'll give Lawal some real competition because I'm tired of seeing him dominate mediocre fighters. I don't know if he stole the term Moneyweight from Floyd Mayweather (that just sounds like something Floyd would say) but it's my new favorite weight division and I'm stealing it from him. Also, screw Strikeforce for not showing KING MO's entrance. That was a bigger crime than Thomson vs. Melendez not being the main event.

It was another good show from Strikeforce although there were still a lot of things that made them look minor league compared to UFC. My biggest gripe, besides the wrong fight being the main event and no KING MO entrance, was that Stephen Quadros did a terrible job in the post-fight interviews and Frank Shamrock is a terrible announcer.


On December 19, Strikeforce hinted that Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields will take place in April on CBS. Fedor Emelianenko is also expected to be on the card.

The big question is, who gets the main event slot? Will Strikeforce really put Fedor Presented by M-1 Global vs. likely Fabricio Werdum in the main event over Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields for the Welterweight title? My guess is that they would and that it would be stupid to do so.

This is the big event for Strikeforce and Henderson. Negotiations with UFC fell through for Henderson because they weren't paying him what he thought he was worth. Now we'll get to see what Henderson is worth and if Strikeforce can be a legit #2 to UFC. They're putting their two biggest draws on CBS and I'm sure they expect it to be the highest rated MMA on CBS event ever, even surpassing the Kimbo numbers. It may not happen but that's what I would expect if I were Strikeforce because you might as well aim high.

Personally I have no interest in Henderson vs. Shields. Neither guy has the charisma to sell me on the fight and really it's tough to sell a fight where the outcome seems rather predictable. Obviously Shields is good enough to somehow beat Henderson but when you look at the fight on paper, it's a very tough match up for Shields. His wrestling is good but I don't think it's good enough to takedown Henderson, especially considering Henderson's size and strength advantage at Middleweight. If it stays a striking contest then Shields' best bet is to hit and run but in a five round fight with Henderson's power, it's only a matter of time before Shields gets caught.

Minor Strikeforce/Miscellaneous News



On December 20, Strikeforce announced that Cris Cyborg will defend her Strikeforce Womens title against Marloes Coenen on January 30th. Also on the card will be Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis for the Strikeforce Welterweight title.

I'm really looking forward to both of these fights but I can't help but think that Strikeforce dropped the ball when it comes to promoting them.

No one knows who Marloes Coenen and Marius Zaromskis are. Coenen had a very impressive victory on the preliminary card of Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers but no one except the people in the building saw it because Strikeforce didn't even air highlights during the main broadcast. Other than that she's just one of the many unknown women in the world of MMA. Zaromskis built a name up for himself over in Japan with head kicks KO's in DREAM but I don't know how well he's known in the US. Even though he's the DREAM Middleweight champion, I don't think he deserves to fight Nick Diaz for the title just because Jay Hieron was promised that title shot, got screwed out of it because of Diaz no showing his drug test, went on to defeat Jesse Taylor, and now doesn't get to fight for the title. The smarter booking would have been to do Hieron vs. Diaz for the title and Zaromskis vs. someone in a showcase fight for Zaromskis (make sure it's on the live event and not the preliminary card) then match up the winners, which would probably end up being Diaz and Zaromskis. You get the same fight you've already booked, you give Diaz some more exposure, Hieron gets his promised title shot, and Zaromskis gets introduced to the US audience. I understand booking fights when you have them but that only applies to money fights where the fighters don't need any more exposure and you're risking losing a lot of money if one fighter loses. Diaz vs. Zaromskis doesn't fit that.

I expect Cyborg and Diaz to win and I'm not even sure either fight will be close. Cyborg is going to have a huge weight advantage, as usual, over Coenen and she'll probably just rag doll her around like she's done to her previous victims. Zaromskis is an exciting fighter with a great head kick but Diaz is tough to finish and has the more well-rounded game.

No More News

That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a preview of UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva. I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas.

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