411 MMA Fact or Fiction 12.24.09: Cung Le's Future, Best WEC/Strikeforce Fight, Henderson's Value & MORE!

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 12.24.2009

Should Cung Le go back to making movies? Will Dan Henderson be a ratings bust for Strikeforce? Would Gilbert Melendez be the toughest opponent for BJ Penn? 411 MMA writers Samer Kadi and Dan Plunkett debate those topics and more in this weeks edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction.

There is no shortage of MMA to talk about as we're coming off two outstanding shows delivered by WEC and Strikeforce.

To debate the fallout from those shows and more this week we have the man with the most dangerous Rear Naked Column in the world, give it up for Samer Kadi. His opponent is the writer of the self proclaimed Greatest MMA News Column, please welcome Daniel Plunkett.

In the words of John McCarthy…LET'S GET IT ON!

1. Cung Le should go back to making movies.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. What about bringing him in to fight Anderson Silva? Surely Le is the one to stop The Spider? I kid, I kid. Cung Le should do whatever he feels like doing. If making movies is what he wants to be doing at this stage of his career, then so be it. But if the man still has some fight left in him and the desire to compete, then he could always be featured in some attraction bouts on Strikeforce. Granted, his stock has taken a bit of a hit after Saturday's loss, but with all the recent signings in Strikeforce, it's not like Le will be counted on as a headliner. If I had to bet, I would say Le will go back to making movies as his fight with Smith was more of an "I have no filming to do this month, how about a fight on the upcoming show?" thing. However, I will not be surprised if Le gets back in the cage by this time next year.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION. Who am I to say what Cung Le should do? Maybe if he was completely dominated by Scott Smith I would be more inclined to say fact, but it was the other way around until the end of the fight. Le dominated Smith in the first round, clearly won the second, and got caught in the third. I think Cung will choose to do movies and maybe some MMA fights on the side. It's pretty clear that he doesn't aspire to be just an MMA fight, it's more of a hobby for him. At 37, he doesn't have too much left for fighting, but I would certainly like to see him step in the cage again.

SCORE: 1 for 1.



2. Donald Cerrone vs. Ed Ratcliff was the best fight this past Saturday.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. I opted to watch WEC 45 this past Saturday and as always, the show delivered. The main event in particular was highly entertaining, despite the repeated halts in the action due to the low blows. Cerrone put on a terrific performance, and took over the fight from the second round onwards. In fact, he almost finished it with one of the most creative submissions I've ever seen as he locked in an inverted triangle/kneebar combo. I still don't know how Ratcliff survived that one, although he would tap seconds later to a rear naked choke. With that said, the best fight this Saturday was the Thomson-Melendez title unification bout. While their original fight was a complete shutout for Thomson, Melendez showed vast improvements in this one as he made the necessary adjustments to deal with "The Punk". The result was a fantastic five round back and forth battle in which "El Nino" prevailed.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION. Samer is correct. Cerrone-Ratcliff was a good fight, but Gilbert Melendez vs. Josh Thomson was far and away the best fight on Saturday. Both men just stood in there and put on a show in what should have been the main event of the evening. The crowd was into the fight, I was into it from my couch, and it made up for Strikeforce not showing King Mo's entrance (which is an absolute disgrace). It was a great fight and a late candidate for fight of the year.

SCORE: 2 for 2.

3. Dan Henderson will be a ratings bust for Strikeforce.

Samer Kadi: FACT. To a certain extent, yes. While I don't think Henderson will provide CBS with Kimbo-like ratings, he will undoubtedly help. Despite not being the biggest draw in the world, we must not underestimate Hendo's name value. Most people would argue that he's mostly recognized by hardcore fans, but here are some facts to counter this argument:

- Henderson took part in the most watched fight in UFC history as 4.7 million viewers tuned in to watch his light heavyweight title bout with Quinton Jackson on free television.
- Henderson was a coach on season 9 of "The Ultimate Fighter".
- 1.6 million people saw Dan Henderson knock Michael Bisping out on the biggest show in UFC history, and many others caught the replay the following month.

Hendo's stock is at an all time high, and given that he'll likely feature on the same card as Fedor, Strikeforce could be in for some good numbers rating-wise.

Dan Plunkett: FACT. For what they are paying him, yes. Henderson has been a feature on shows that have done very well, such as UFC 75, The Ultimate Fighter 9, and UFC 100. Which is great, but none of those made Dan Henderson a big name. I do think a rematch with Anderson Silva could have done well on PPV following UFC 100, but Henderson's name value momentum has slowed since that night in July. In April, Henderson will probably fight Jake Shields. That fight won't be a big ratings mover. However, if Henderson comes out with a big KO win and goes on to fight Fedor Emelianenko, that fight, if promoted correctly, could do good numbers. Strikeforce is going to have to sell it as the underdog, hard-working American (Henderson) attempting to vanquish the virtually undefeated, unstoppable, mean Russian (Fedor). So basically Scott Coker needs to watch Rocky IV a lot and take notes (possibly Fedor takes on Randy Couture in an exhibition match with Hendo in Randy's corner debating whether to throw in the towel).

SCORE: 3 for 3.

Video Intermission



4. Gilbert Melendez is the Lightweight who would give BJ Penn the most problems.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION. At this point, there isn't a lightweight in the world that would give BJ Penn many problems. He's just great at every aspect of fighting. It's hard for me to pick the lightweight that would give BJ the most problems, but I can confidently say that there are guys that would give BJ more problems than Melendez. "El Niño" is primarily a ground fighter; he has good wrestling and is tough to submit. Recently, he has been showing off his improved striking. His wrestling may be good, but I have my doubts that he can take down BJ Penn. Even if he takes him down, BJ has great submissions and is extremely difficult to hold down. If Melendez can't take him down, then what? He certainly isn't going to out-strike BJ. Diego Sanchez had improved his striking (from poor to okay) leading into his fight against Penn and how many strikes did he land in the 22 minute 37 second fight? Eight. That's not very many.

I think it's very possible Penn-Melendez would end up looking like Penn-Sanchez. So getting back to the original statement, who could give BJ more problems than Gilbert Melendez? Kenny Florian (if he comes in with a better game plan and uses his leg kicks more), Gray Maynard (big wrestler who I think can take BJ down, though he'd get submitted soon after. But at least he'd get the takedown), and Eddie Alvarez (may be able to hit BJ standing). I could be wrong on one of those, but there is no doubt in my mind Gilbert Melendez isn't the lightweight that would give BJ the most problems.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. Anytime a fighter can avenge a victory, it's impressive. Gilbert Melendez showed tremendous improvement in his rematch with Josh Thomson. His striking – particularly his jab – has improved a lot. He threw some nice combinations and leg kicks and he seems to have some power behind his punches all of a sudden. With that said, BJ Penn is a bad match up for Melendez (he's a bad match up for every lightweight). As Dan said, Melendez is still at his best when he gains top position, and I'm not sure he can do that against BJ. If the fight stays standing, improved striking or not, Melendez is going to get clobbered. Stylistically, someone like Eddie Alvarez would be a little tougher for BJ do deal with although that's not saying much. Alvarez does possess some fast and heavy hands so maybe he can land something on Penn's granite chin. I also concur on Gray Maynard and particularly Kenny Florian. Again, Dan hit the nail on the head. Florian, despite not faring too well in his last outing with BJ, has the best striking out of any lightweight not named BJ Penn (no Gomi talk please), and might perform a little better in a rematch, while Maynard has the size and the wrestling to put BJ on his back. Good luck doing much else from there though.

SCORE: 4 for 4.



5. Anthony Njokuani turned in the most impressive performance this past Saturday.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION. I nearly said fact, because Njokuani looked great in his destruction of Chris Horodecki. However it was well known before that fight that Njokuani had the advantage stylistically (only one person picked him on the roundtable), while another fighter on the card was counted out by everyone on the roundtable with the exception of one genius. Going into Saturday, Takeya Mizugaki was a top 5 bantamweight. He had gone the distance with Miguel Torres and defeated Jeff Curran in his last two fights. On Saturday though, Scott Jorgensen came in and performed extremely well against Mizugaki. He dropped Mizugaki twice in the first round and used his wrestling along with good clinch work to win the second round, sealing the fight for him on the scorecards.

Samer Kadi: FACT. Dan certainly makes a strong case for Jorgensen. He did a fantastic job in being able to take Mizugaki down and controlling him on the ground, but more impressively, he was to knock the Japanese fighter down, and judging by his fight with Torres, that is no easy feat. Another fighter who obviously had a great performance was Gilbert Melendez, but I, like my fellow 411 writers saw it coming. And even though I did think Njokuani would stop Horodecki, the manner in which he was able to do it was jaw dropping. That head kick is without a doubt one of the highlights of the year. The ability to generate that sort of power from a RUNNING head kick is insane.

SCORE: 4 for 5.

6. Nogueria vs. Velasquez should be fighting for the Interim Heavyweight title not Mir vs. Carwin.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION. There's certainly an argument for it, but I won't be making it. From a business perspective, Mir-Carwin makes much more sense for the interim title bout. If Mir wins, it gives him a win over a Lesnar clone (Mir is saying in his interviews that Carwin is better than Brock, which is just hyping a rubber match with Lesnar even more) and sets up the biggest money fight of 2010 for the UFC in Lesnar-Mir III. Should Carwin come out on top, it gives him a legitimate win over a well known fighter. Either way the fight turns out, it's great for business.

From a casual fan perspective, there is substantially less interest in Nogueira/Velasquez vs. Lesnar. While I would love to see Minotauro fight Brock just for the chance of a big come from behind victory and Lesnar-Velasquez for an interesting wrestling battle, I think this is the right time for Carwin/Mir vs. Lesnar. It's hard to argue at this point that the winner of either fight (Minotauro-Velasquez or Mir-Carwin) deserves to be interim champion more than the other. Carwin and Velasquez are still relatively unproven against the highest level of heavyweights (that will change after their next fights), and Mir and Nogueira are only one fight removed from dominating losses. When you can't make a definitive case that a fighter deserves the shot more than the other, you turn to the one that will make the most money. You turn to Mir vs. Carwin.

Samer Kadi: FICTION. Honestly, it doesn't make much of a difference. I don't think anyone would have cried foul had Nogueira and Velasquez been fighting for the interim title instead of Mir and Carwin. In fact, all four fighters have a solid wave of momentum behind them. It could be argued that Velasquez holds more wins over quality heavyweights than Carwin, and that Nogueira's fight of the year candidate with Couture should have given him the nod ahead of Mir. However, not only does Mir hold a victory over Nog, but Carwin was the number one contender and was scheduled to take on Lesnar for the title. Because of that, he definitely should be the one fighting for the interim title. And given that Nog and Velasquez were already slated to fight in Australia, Mir was the opponent who made most sense. In any case, the winners of these two bouts will end up facing each other in the summer, as it doesn't appear that Brock will be back anytime soon.

SCORE: 5 for 6.

Samer and Dan agree more often than not but just as Josh Thomson and Gilbert Melendez proved you can have an amazing battle while also being good friends.

Come back next week as two more MMA writers preview UFC 108 and debate the latest happenings in the MMA world in 411 MMA Fact or Fiction.



MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!

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