411’s MMA Roundtable Preview - WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.09.2010

Join the 411 staff as they break down the WEC 46 card! Jamie Varner takes on Ben Henderson for the lightweight title, Urijah Faber goes up against Raphael Assuncao, Mike Brown returns and takes his first step towards regaining the featherweight title, and much more! Check out the full column for all the details!





WELCOME:
The WEC kicks off 2010 with a lightweight bout to decide their undisputed champion! Also, "The California Kid" Urijah Faber makes his return to the cage as he takes on dangerous contender Raphael Assuncao. Plus, Mike Brown looks to rebound from his championship loss, and much more! Check out the full column for all the details!

THE STAFF:

From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!

From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi!

From pretty much everything, he's the boss, Larry Csonka!

And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!



THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
Bantamweight bout: Coty Wheeler vs. Will Campuzano

Jonathan Solomon: Will Campuzano, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Will Campuzano, KO, Round 1
Samer Kadi: Coty Wheeler, Submission, Round 2.
Larry Csonka: Coty Wheeler, Submission, Round 2.
Dan Plunkett: Coty Wheeler, Decision.
The staff picks Coty Wheeler, 3-2.

Bantamweight bout: Eddie Wineland vs. George Roop

Jonathan Solomon: George Roop, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: George Roop, Decision
Samer Kadi: Eddie Wineland, Unanimous Decision.
Larry Csonka: Eddie Wineland, Unanimous Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Eddie Wineland, Decision
The staff picks Eddie Wineland, 3-2.

Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Bryan Caraway

Jonathan Solomon: Bryan Caraway, Submission, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Mark Hominick, Decision
Samer Kadi: Caraway, Submission, Round 1.
Larry Csonka: Bryan Caraway, Submission, Round 2.
Dan Plunkett: Bryan Caraway, Decision
The staff picks Bryan Caraway, 4-1.

Bantamweight bout: Wagnney Fabiano vs. Clint Godfrey

Jonathan Solomon: Wagnney Fabiano, Submission, Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: Wagnney Fabiano, Submission, Round 1
Samer Kadi: Wagnney Fabiano, Submission, Round 2.
Larry Csonka: Wagnney Fabiano, Submission, Round 2.
Dan Plunkett: Wagnney Fabiano, Submission, Round 1.
The staff picks Wagnney Fabiano, 5-0.

Bantamweight bout: Charlie Valencia vs. Akitoshi Tamura

Jonathan Solomon: Akitoshi Tamura, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Akitoshi Tamura, Decision
Samer Kadi: Akitoshi Tamura, Unanimous Decision.
Larry Csonka: Akitoshi Tamura, Unanimous Decision.
Dan Plunkett: Charlie Valencia, Decision
The staff picks Akitoshi Tamura, 4-1.

THE MAIN CARD:
Featherweight bout: Mackens Semerzier vs. Deividas Taurosevicius

Jonathan Solomon: Semerzier is coming off his surprising submission victory over Waggney Fabiano last year. The Miami native will have his hands full with fellow Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, Deividas Taurosevicius, a student of Renzo Gracie's Academy. Deividas is also a submission specialist so something has to give here. Deividas has more experience and has fought better competition (he lost a decision to Frankie Edgar in 2006, he defeated Dan Lauzon and Bart Palaszewski in 2007). His three losses have come by decision while Semerzier is undefeated in six fights. This is a toss-up but I think we'll see who is further along in their BJJ studies.

Winner: Mackens Semerzier, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I was very impressed with Semerzier subbing Fabiano, and this will be a great test to see if Semerzier can be a contender. Both of these guys are strong BJJ specialists, so we could be in for an interesting, technical ground battle that I don't think will get out of the first round.

Winner: Mackens Semerzier, Submission, Round 1.

Samer Kadi: Holder of one of the biggest upsets of last year, Mackens Semerzier gets back into the cage for the first time since his triangle choke submission of Wagnney Fabiano. Awaiting him is another grappler in Deividas Taurosevicius, who might be better served to keep this fight standing, where he holds a slight edge. Whether that will be enough remains to be seen, as Semerzier will likely manage to take it to the ground at one point or another. I was impressed with Semerzier in his victory over Fabiano, and I expect him to prove it was more than just a fluke.

Winner: Mackens Semerzier, Submission, Round 3.

Larry Csonka: Mackens Semerzier is a dude with a ton of potential, and he showed that when he submitted Wagnney Fabiano. He will have his hands full with another good grappler in Deividas Taurosevicius. This could be a really good ground battle, and I really dig a good ground fight.

Winner: Mackens Semerzier, Submission, RD2

Dan Plunkett: Semerzier is coming off of a shocking submission victory over Wagnney Fabiano. In that fight, I wasn't expecting Semerzier to get anywhere close to submitting Fabiano. Taurosevicius, whose name is quite hard to spell, holds a brown belt in BJJ to Semerzier's purple. Based on that, I'll pick the upset here and go with Taurosevicius.

Winner: Deividas Taurosevicius, Decision

The staff picks Mackens Semerzier, 4-1.

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Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Anthony Morrison

Jonathan Solomon: Whether you think Mike Brown has made excuses for his loss to Jose Aldo or not, the fact remains, he is still a dangerous fighter. He is taking on a WEC newcomer here so hopefully he does not take Morrison too lightly. Morrison is known as a powerful striker with a submission game. Having only seen a few of Morrison's fights on YouTube, I find it hard to believe he can contend with Brown's strength, wrestling and striking. While Morrison is a tough fighter, he is taking a big step up in competition here.

Winner: Mike Brown, TKO, Round 2

Jeffrey Harris: After our recent interview which you can read HERE, I definitely believe Brown is focused on this fight more than anything else. Cerrone was too invested in fighting Varner instead of Henderson and I believe that cost Cerrone big time. Brown knows where his head is at, and I'm not sure I see Morrison getting past Brown's wrestling and striking. I say Brown ends this one early.

Winner: Mike Brown, TKO, Round 1

Samer Kadi: Anthony Morrison gets put in the unenviable position to get Mike Brown back on the winning track. I honestly don't see what Morrison can offer to trouble Brown, who's the superior striker and wrestler. Not only should Brown win the fight, but he should finish it as well. And he does have different tools to do it. Brown does pack up a very big punch, especially for a 145'er. His top game is brutal, and he has the ground and pound and submission arsenal to choose from. I don't think he will walk all over him from the get go as coming off a loss, Brown will be cautious in the early going. After a short feeling out process, Brown will settle down and find his groove before finishing things off early in the second round.

Winner: Mike Brown, TKO, Round 2.

Larry Csonka: Mike Brown SMASH.

Winner: Mike Brown, TKO, RD1

Dan Plunkett: I don't like Morrison's chances.

Winner: Mike Brown

The staff picks Mike Brown, 5-0.

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Lightweight bout: Dave Jansen vs. Kamal Shalorus

Jonathan Solomon: Well, Shalorus will be fighting a professional MMA fight for just the seventh time. He is 5-0 with all of his wins by knockout. Jansen is 14-0 and uses his wrestling to win his fights with seven wins by submission and five by decision. Shalorus may have the advantage if he can keep the fight standing but I will assume Jansen can take him down easily. From there, we shall how well Shalorus' submission defense is.

Winner: Dave Jansen, Submission, Round 1

Jeffrey Harris: Like most WEC fights for me, this is a bit of a crapshoot since I know so little about both guys. I'm going with experience and wrestling here in the Team Quest fighter, Jansen. That said, Shalorous did look impressive with his recent first round KO over WilL Kerr.

Winner: Dave Jansen, Decision

Samer Kadi: Dave Jansen takes on Kamal Shalorus in a battle of undefeated wrestlers. As often is the case when two wrestlers square off, the fight might be decided in the stand up. And in that department, the edge definitely goes to Shalorus, whose power can end Jansen's night at any moment. I really don't believe Jansen wants any part of Shalorus standing, so his best bet would be to take him to the ground. Granted, that is no easy feat, as Shalorus' strong wrestling background will make him hard to take down and harder to keep down. With that said, Jansen has more experience and I think he will take advantage of Shalorus' aggression to ride out the decision victory.

Winner: Dave Jansen, Unanimous Decision.

Larry Csonka: If Kamal Shalorus can come out fast and keep it on the feet, he has a chance. But he is older and inexperienced compared to Jansen, and Jansen will likely take him to the ground with ease on his way to a submission victory.

Winner: Dave Jansen, Submission, RD2

Dan Plunkett: Both of these guys are wrestlers, but Kamal Shalorus is far more accomplished. I think this turns into a wrestling match that Shalorus will win.

Winner: Kamal Shalorus, Decision

The staff picks Dave Jansen, 4-1.

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Featherweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Raphael Assuncao

Jonathan Solomon: The California Kid is back in the ARCO Arena. Speaking of returns, this will be Faber's first fight since recovering from a broken hand and a damaged second hand. Assuncao is a powerful striker although his technical prowess as a boxer leaves a lot to be desired. Assuncao is a jiu-jitsu fighter but do you think he can handle Faber on the ground? Faber should be able to keep this fight standing and his mix of speed, power and technique should be more than enough to win this fight.

Winner: Urijah Faber, TKO, Round 2

Jeffrey Harris: This is a super important fight for Faber to come back and look strong if he wants to remain relevant as a featherweight contender. Assuncao is 2-0 in the WEC and brings a strong record most of his wins coming by submission. While I like Assuncao, I still favor Faber in this bout if Faber is healthy and healed up and ready. I think Faber does need to be careful because sometimes being flashy leaves you openings such as the first fight with Mike Brown. I think Faber will be more focused and reined in for this and will come out on top.

Winner: Urijah Faber, Submission, Round 2

Samer Kadi: Urijah Faber returns to the WEC to take on underrated BJJ specialist Raphael Assuncao. On paper, this is a very compelling match up. Assuncao's submission game can give anyone in the division fits, but Faber's ground game is no joke. While Assuncao is more than comfortable working off his back, he doesn't want Faber on top of him giving him a taste of his brutal ground and pound. Striking wise, Faber is the faster, more versatile and dynamic striker. Assuncao can certainly hold his own standing, but unless Faber gets crazy like he did in the first fight with Mike Brown, he should be able to get the better of the exchanges. Assuncao's best bet would be to take the fight to the mat and secure top position. And given his size advantage and decent wrestling, he might be able to do it. But Faber is someone who makes a living in the scrambles, and I don't see Assuncao keeping him down for long. In the end, I see Faber edging out the Brazilian in a very entertaining but decisive unanimous decision victory.

Winner: Urijah Faber, Unanimous Decision.

Larry Csonka: This one could be really interesting. The aura of Faber has been somewhat destroyed due to losing to Brown two times, and I do not think that guys are as afraid of his as they once were. Faber has had the lay off, and may also be a bit scared about his hands after the breakage. While he has a good ground game, Assuncao does also, which could cause a bit of a stalemate. I am interested o see if Faber can bounce back, or if Assuncao can climb the ranks. Part of me feels that Faber will out work Assuncao, and take home a hard earned decision victory.

Winner: Urijah Faber, Decision

Dan Plunkett: This is certainly a tougher fight for Faber than the betting odds seem to think. Assuncao is very good on the ground and on top of that he's a solid striker. The problem for him is, Faber has better wrestling, good submission defense, and is faster and just plain better standing.

Winner: Urijah Faber, Decision

The staff picks Urijah Faber, 5-0.

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Lightweight Championship bout: Jamie Varner (c) vs. Ben Henderson (ic)

Jonathan Solomon: This should turn out to be one of the best lightweight fights of the year, and obviously we have quite a ways to go. This is Varner's first fight in nearly a year after recovering from a broken foot and an eye injury sustained against Cowboy Cerrone. Ben Henderson is fresh off his decision victory, over Cerrone a few months ago. Both are strong wrestlers although Varner has more power in his hands since everyone should expect it to be a striking battle. Henderson thinks Varner is a quitter, having forced the refs hand to stop his fight with Cerrone. Henderson believes he is all action and a fighter Varner cannot handle. Perhaps he is right because I do not see any way that Henderson submits and unless he's knocked out, it will take a nearly perfect fight to out-point Henderson on the judges scorecards. With that said, I think Varner's boxing is too strong for Henderson and that will be the difference in this fight.

Winner: STILL Your WEC Lightweight Champion, Jamie Varner, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I strongly favor Varner in this fight. Varner's had quite the layoff, while Henderson in the meantime has been fighting and also participated in training camps with BJ Penn and Kenny Florian. I don't see Varner submitting Henderson (but wouldn't that be ironic), and I see Henderson toughing it out and outstriking and outwrestling Varner for five rounds. I see this going sort of similarly to the Cerrone fight or the Melendez/Thomson rematch.

Winner: Ben Henderson, Decision

Samer Kadi: If it weren't for Varner's long layoff, I would be somewhat comfortable picking him to win this one. Because of the champ's wrestling ability, Henderson will not be able to take him down and control him as easily as he did with Donald Cerrone. In addition, Varner, on paper, is the better striker of the two. His punches are very accurate, particularly from the inside, and he does have the power to top it off. Henderson can no doubt take a punch and he won't be easy to put away, but that alone will not him win the fight. With all that being said, we can't ignore the fact that Jamie Varner is returning after being sidelined for almost a year. We've seen what ring rust can do to fighters, from Shogun to Josh Thomson to more recently, Joe Lauzon. It's a very tough fight to call, but I expect Varner to nullify Henderson's wrestling and keep the fight standing in the first three rounds, where he should have a significant advantage. He will likely fade away in the championship rounds where Henderson will have more success, feeding off the scrambles to take Varner to the ground and utilize his top game, but I don't see it being enough to get the decision.

Winner: Jamie Varner, Unanimous Decision.

Larry Csonka: I like Jamie Varner, and am glad to see that he is finally back in the WEC mix. For as good a fighter as he is, I do not have a good feeling going into this fight. It has been a year since he fought, he is coming off of broken hands, and LIL HENDO has just been on a roll. I think that Henderson out hustles him and had the proper cardio to keep things going in his favor, and while Varner will always be dangerous, I feel that Henderson will have enough to take the fight. It should be pretty great.

Winner: Ben Henderson, Decision

Dan Plunkett: Varner has had a near year layoff from fighting, and that can't be a good thing. If Varner was coming off of a normal layoff I would pick him due to his superior boxing and good wrestling. However, I just don't feel comfortable picking a guy coming back from a long layoff against such a tough opponent. Henderson also has very good wrestling and is improving in every area. I think he'll do enough to get the job done.

Winner: Ben Henderson, Decision

The staff picks Ben Henderson, 3-2.

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The 411 staff decided to keep score on these roundtables. At the end of the year, we will finally find out who is the best fight-picker on staff. The number of fights picked perfectly will also be included, but will not count for anything. After one event, here are the current standings:

Jeremy Lambert: 9-1, 4 perfect.
Samer Kadi: 8-2, 2 perfect.
Jeffrey Harris: 8-2
Dan Plunkett: 7-3, 1 perfect.
Todd Bergman: 6-4, 2 perfect.
Jonathan Solomon: 5-5, 2 perfect.
Bill Wannop: 2-7, 1 perfect.

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