411’s MMA Roundtable Preview: UFC Fight Night 20: Maynard vs. Diaz
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.11.2010
The UFC comes to Virginia and brings a card full of up-and-coming fighters ready to make an impact. Gray Maynard, who may be a win away from a lightweight title shot against BJ Penn, takes on Nate Diaz in the main event. Diaz submitted Maynard in their first meeting on TUF 5, but can the BJJ specialist do it again 3 years later? Plus, recent Ultimate Fighter winners Efrain Escudero and Amir Sadollah make their returns, and much more! Check out the full column for details!
WELCOME:
The UFC looks to keep the momentum from UFC 108 as they roll into Virginia for the twentieth edition of UFC Fight Night! Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz rematch in the main event, Efrain Escudero takes on Evan Dunham, Amir Sadollah fights Brad Blackburm, and Tom Lawlor battles Aaron Simpson on the main card! Before they break down the fights, let's meet the staff!
THE STAFF:
From the MMA Legacy, Bill Wannop!
From the Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!
From pretty much everything, he's the boss, Larry Csonka!
From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi!
From the Takedown MMA News Report, Daniel Bonnizzio!
From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!
From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, Jeremy Lambert!
And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
Middleweight Bout: Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes
Bill Wannop: Forbes, TKO, Rd 2 Jonathan Solomon: Jesse Forbes, Decision Larry Csonka: Nick Catone, Decision Samer Kadi: Nick Catone, TKO, Round 2 Daniel Bonnizzio: Catone, TKO, RD 1 Jeffrey Harris: Nick Catone, KO, Round 2 Jeremy Lambert: Catone, Decision Dan Plunkett: Jesse Forbes, Decision The staff picks Nick Catone, 5-3.
Middleweight Bout: Gerald Harris vs. John Salter
Bill Wannop: Harris, TKO, Rd 1 Jonathan Solomon: Gerald Harris, TKO, Round 1 Larry Csonka: Gerald Harris, TKO, Round 2 Samer Kadi: Gerald Harris, TKO, Round 1 Daniel Bonnizzio: Harris, TKO, RD 1 Jeffrey Harris: Gerald Harris, Decision Jeremy Lambert: Harris, TKO, Round 1 Dan Plunkett: Gerald Harris, KO, Round 2 The staff picks Gerald Harris, 8-0.
Lightweight Bout: Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Bill Wannop: dos Anjos, Unanimous Decision Jonathan Solomon: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision Larry Csonka: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision Samer Kadi: Rafael Dos Anjos, Submission, Round 2 Daniel Bonnizzio: dos Anjos, Submission, RD 2 Jeffrey Harris: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision Jeremy Lambert: Dos Anjos, Submission, Round 2 Dan Plunkett: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision The staff picks Rafael dos Anjos, 8-0.
Welterweight Bout: Mike Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald
Bill Wannop: MacDonald, KO, Rd 1 Jonathan Solomon: Rory MacDonald, TKO, Round 2 Larry Csonka: Rory MacDonald, TKO, Round 1 Samer Kadi: Rory MacDonald, Unanimous Decision Daniel Bonnizzio: Guymon, Decision Jeffrey Harris: Rory MacDonald, TKO, Round 1 Jeremy Lambert: MacDonald, TKO, Round 1 Dan Plunkett: MacDonald, KO, Round 1 The staff picks Rory MacDonald, 7-1.
Lightweight Bout: Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares
Bill Wannop: Tavares, Unanimous Decision Jonathan Solomon: Nik Lentz, TKO, Round 3 Larry Csonka: Nik Lentz, TKO, Round 3 Samer Kadi: Thiago Tavares, Unanimous Decision Daniel Bonnizzio: Tavares, Submission, RD 1 Jeffrey Harris: Thiago Tavares, Submission, Round 3 Jeremy Lambert: Tavares, Decision Dan Plunkett: Tavares, Submission, Round 2 The staff picks Thiago Tavares, 6-2.
Welterweight Bout: Jesse Lennox vs. Rick Story
Bill Wannop: Lennox, Submission, Rd 2 Jonathan Solomon: Rick Story, Submission, Round 2 Larry Csonka: Rick Story, Submission, Round 1 Samer Kadi: Rick Story, Unanimous Decision Daniel Bonnizzio: Story, Submission, RD 2 Jeffrey Harris: Rick Story, Submission, Round 1 Jeremy Lambert: Story, Submission, Round 3 Dan Plunkett: Story, Submission, Round 2 The staff picks Rick Story, 7-1.
Middleweight Bout: Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva
Bill Wannop: Silva, Unanimous Decision Jonathan Solomon: Chris Leben, Decision Larry Csonka: Chris Leben, Decision Samer Kadi: Chris Leben, Unanimous Decision Daniel Bonnizzio: Leben, Decision Jeffrey Harris: Chris Leben, Decision Jeremy Lambert: Silva, TKO, Round 2 Dan Plunkett: Silva, TKO, Round 3 The staff picks Chris Leben, 5-3.
THE MAIN CARD:
Welterweight Bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn
Bill Wannop: Brad Blackburn is the veteran fighter here and looks to take out Ultimate Fighter 7 winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah is coming off an impressive victory over Phil Baroni and really showcased his diverse striking. I see Sadollah is the better overall fighter and I look for him to get the KO victory.
Winner: Sadollah, KO, Rd 2.
Jonathan Solomon: Sadollah dominated Phil Baroni at UFC 106 and I wonder if he will employ the same leg kick strategy he did back then. Blackburn is a veteran of the sport with a 17-9 record. He is on a great streak that includes wins over Jay Hieron, Ryo Chonan and Edgar Garcia. He has power in his strikes and Sadollah's lone loss was due to strikes at the hands of Johny Hendricks (despite the potential early stoppage). Blackburn has a gas tank unlike Baroni and will push the pace in the fight and will use his superior striking and experience to win this fight.
Winner: Brad Blackburn, TKO, Round 1
Larry Csonka: While Amir Sadollah looked very good against Phil Baroni, I just do not have the confidence that most seem to have in him. Some seem to think that he will run through Blackburn, but the guy is a veteran, and considering it is almost impossible to have worse cardio than Phil, he should stick around and cause some problems. Sadollah may win, but I do not think it will be as easy as some think. He'll have to survive Blackburn's power, and his own chin, to win.
Winner: Amir Sadollah, Decision
Samer Kadi: This is probably the hardest fight to pick in the entire card. I think Blackburn is the more talented fighter really. Sadollah has yet to find his true bread and butter. He seems to be working on his Muay Thai, but really a gassed out Phil Baroni was still able to land some heavy leather and a wrestler (Johnny Hendricks) TKO'd him in 28 seconds. Blackburn has the better boxing and overall striking as well as footwork. Sadollah has displayed some decent kicks in the Baroni fight and seems to have good technique as he rotates his hips correctly, particularly on the leg kicks. Amir will probably possess more cardio and certainly the better ground game, but I don't think his takedowns are good enough to take it to the mat. It should be another close fight, but I see Blackburn edging it out, only just.
Winner: Brad Blackburn, Split Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: I'd agree with Samer, this one had me scratching my head the most. Amir hasn't quite found his niche yet to have it labeled his strengths. We know he seems to enjoy submissions rather nicely, but in his fight with Baroni he displayed some much-improved standup and good cardio (though we may have been influenced by the fact that Baroni has negative cardio). He does possess decent grappling, and has shown the ability to be effective standing up (and while he's not the greatest fighter in the world, standing and trading with Baroni for 15 minutes is more dangerous than would seem). Blackburn however is going to come into this fight with much better cardio then Baroni, and is most likely going to really make Amir work for the win. In the end, I think Amir's Thai boxing is going to be enough to let him get in, tag Brad, and get out before too much damage is done.
Winner: Amir Sadollah, Split Decision
Jeffrey Harris: I hope Sadollah's early fight jitters are over and he's ready to show that similar toughness and durability we saw on TUF again. I'm impressed with Blackburn's resume, but I simply just don't want to bet against Sadollah. I think this fight will be a tough standup battle with Amir getting the edge and either pulling out the win in the third round or getting the TKO.
Winner: Amir Sadollah, Decision
Jeremy Lambert: I don't what to expect from Amir at this point. He's a very technical striker who lacks power, he seems to have some good submissions, and his cardio appears to be good. Blackburn will be willing to stand with Amir because he's a solid striker who has the power to catch Amir. Chances are that Amir will have to weather another early storm and if he does that, I think he wins this fight simply because I trust his cardio and toughness to outlast Blackburn.
Winner: Sadollah, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I liked Sadollah's striking in his last fight against Phil Baroni, but I think Brad Blackburn is a tougher opponent for him. Blackburn has good striking, won't gas out in the first three minutes, and is a self-proclaimed "master of badness." It's a tough fight to call, but I'll go with Sadollah edging out a decision with good striking and a better ground game.
Winner: Amir Sadollah, Decision
The staff picks Amir Sadollah, 6-2.
Middleweight Bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson
Bill Wannop: This should also be an exciting fight, as both fighters usually bring the energy and excitement. Aaron Simpson is undefeated and I think he should stay undefeated in this fight, look for Simpson to get the TKO.
Winner: Simpson, TKO, Rd 2.
Jonathan Solomon: Lawlor is back! He last fought at UFC 100 in his middleweight debut by submitting C.B. Dolloway in an impressive performance. He is a natural wrestler with submission skills on the ground. Simpson is a 35-year old young buck in MMA coming off a successful amateur wrestling career. As a professional, he is 6-0 with all his wins by knockout. This may be more of an equal fight between two wrestlers but I would give the ground edge to Lawlor and the standing edge to Simpson.
Winner: Aaron Simpson, TKO, Round 3
Larry Csonka: I refuse to break this down as a fight. Tom Lawlor defines awesome, and he will win every fight ever held.
Winner: Tom Lawlor, Being Awesome
Samer Kadi: Aside from being awesome (in Csonka's words), Lawlor turned into a surprisingly solid fighter. He possesses good wrestling and decent submissions. Unfortunately, this is a terrible match up for him. I'm a firm believer in Aaron Simpson and truly think he has a very bright future ahead of him in the UFC. The man is so fast, powerful and explosive, it's ridiculous really. He was absolutely mauling Ed Herman before Herman was injured, and I expect another dominant display here. Simpson's pace and wrestling will be too much for Lawlor who will struggle to weather the storm long enough. I think Simpson will have his way with Lawlor with relative ease, both standing and on the ground, on his way to a second round ground and pound stoppage.
Winner: Aaron Simpson, TKO, Round 2.
Daniel Bonnizzio: "Filthy" Tom Lawlor's interviews leading up to this fight have been nothing short of hysterical. Banana peels, competitive eating, and the Bahamas all lace his talks. However, Simpson is no laughing matter as he was handing Ed Herman his rear end on a silver platter before Herman's injury. Lawlor looks great at 185 but Simpson is going to outwork him, outpace him, and outmuscle him en route to a stoppage late in the first round. Lawlor is going to give as good as he gets, but unfortunately the fact is he is going to be stopped.
Winner: Aaron Simpson, TKO, RD 1
Jeffrey Harris: I'm pulling for Lawler after his resurgence at middleweight and amazing charisma and personality as a fighter which is something we need to see more of in MMA. Simpson might be a tough fighter and amateur wrestler, but so was CB Dolloway who Lawlor only needed a minute to finish and submit at UFC 100. I say Lawlor gets the job done in similar fashion tonight.
Winner: Tom Lawlor, Submission, Round 2
Jeremy Lambert: Tom Lawlor has amazing charisma but he's not a very good fighter. Aaron Simpson doesn't have the charisma that Lawlor has but he appears to be a very good fighter despite his age. Both guys are wrestlers, which means the fight will likely stay on the feet as I would think Simpson wants it on the feet and I don't think Lawlor can put Simpson on his back. If it stays on the feet then expect a brutal KO victory of Simpson. The man just hits like a truck and has scary power. If Lawlor can get him down he can grind out a decision but Simpson is very strong and athletic.
Winner: Simpson, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: I love Tom Lawlor. He's a silly guy. My biggest hope for this fight is that they show his entrance because it will be epic. Having said that, I don't like this match-up for Thomas "Jefferson" Lawlor.
Winner: Aaron Simpson, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Aaron Simpson, 6-2.
Lightweight Bout: Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham
Bill Wannop: This fight is a battle of two undefeated up and coming fighters. Efrain was the winner of season 8 of the Ultimate Fighter and has looked impressive in his last outing (a first round KO of Cole Miller). This fight should be interesting as both fighters are very closely matched, but I will go with Efrain due to his newly found striking.
Winner: Escudero, TKO, Rd 2.
Jonathan Solomon: Escudero is coming off a great knockout win over Cole Miller in September and brings a combination of powerful strikes and great wrestling to the table. Dunham is a BJJ fighter with five submission wins before entering the UFC last year. Since then, he knocked out Per Eklund and took a decision from Marcus Aurelio. Much like the main event, I think the strength of the wrestler in this fight will control the outcome. Plus, I would venture to guess that Escudero's power will give Dunham some problems on the feet.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, TKO, Round 2
Larry Csonka: I thought that Efrain Escudero was very impressive against Cole Miller in September, and while I think Evan Dunham "could" pose a problem for him, because he is a good BJJ guy and has proven he can win in the UFC, I feel that Escudero is on the rise right now, has good power and stand up, and will continue to do well in this fight.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, TKO, RD1
Samer Kadi: Efrain Escudero returns to the Octagon following a blistering performance against Cole Miller. Not too many people gave Efrain credit after winning The Ultimate Fighter, but he's proven to be a quite a well rounded fighter. He has polished submission skills to top off his wrestling, and he showed some excellent hands and surprising power against Cole Miller. Dunham, a great grappler himself, is far from being a one trick pony. He also possesses good hands and is particularly effective with his counter punching. For Dunham, it will be vital to control the distance, utilize his jab, and counter well, while giving himself enough time to sprawl if Efrain decides to shoot. Escudero is the more explosive fighter with more raw power, so he might sacrifice taking a good punch to the chin in order to close the gap and get the takedown. I see it being a good back and forth battle but Efrain will ultimately prove too much for Dunham.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: This is definitely a matchup of two great grapplers. It's no secret Efrain has some good wrestling, and he compliments it with better-than-decent submission skills with 8 of his 12 wins coming by way of some submission or another. Dunham also favors the ground in fighting, but also like Efrain, is not afraid to try and throw leather. While this is going to be a great fight, I feel that the TUF8 winner is going to be too much and his wrestling, in combination with his relatively heavy hands for a lightweight, is going to be too much for Dunham to handle and Efrain is going to pound his way to victory sometime in the second stanza after securing a nice takedown.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, TKO, RD 2
Jeffrey Harris: If you want one of the brightest prospects in the entire UFC lightweight division, look no further than TUF 8 winner, Efrain Escudero, who we interviewed in November 2008 shortly before his TUF 8 finals victory. Escudero is undefeated at 12-0 a strong collegiate wrestler and a very well rounded fighter. He's not to be underestimated especially after shutting down Cole Miller. Escudero will continue his gradual rise to dominance with this fight.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, TKO, Round 1
Jeremy Lambert: I'm really looking forward to this fight and have even tabbed it as the Fight of the Night. Both fighters are wrestlers who are also well rounded. Although they're both wrestlers, I give a slight edge in that department to Escudero just because of his strength advantage. Because they're both wrestlers, I think that will cancel each other out and we'll see most of this fight contested on the feet. If it stays on the feet it's almost a toss up. Dunham showed great striking in his last fight against Marcus Aurelio while Escudero showed he has power in his hands by knocking out Cole Miller. I expect this to be a fun scrap on the feet, both guys creating scrambles if it hits the ground, and both pushing the pace until the fight ends.
Winner: Escudero, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This is a tough fight to pick. I believe Escudero has the wrestling advantage, and stand-up wise I'd say they're about even. Dunham is a good submission artist as well, but I don't think Escudero will be submitted here. Ultimately, I see Escudero coming out on top in a very competitive and fun fight.
Winner: Efrain Escudero, Decision
The staff picks Efrain Escudero, 8-0.
Lightweight Bout: Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz
Bill Wannop: This is a rematch from the Ultimate Fighter Season 5, where Nate Diaz submitted Gray Maynard on his way to winning the tournament. Both fighters have grown since the, but I expect the fight to be similar to their first meeting. Look for Maynard to take the fight to the ground and use his wrestling to ground and pound Nate. Diaz will be looking for submission from the bottom or he will try to bring the fight back standing and work his striking. This is a tough one to call as Diaz has had some trouble with wrestlers in the past. In fight Diaz gets beaten for the first half of the fight then he manages to lock on a submission for the victory. I see Maynard bullying Diaz for the first round, then getting caught in an armbar or guillotine on the ground.
Winner: Diaz, Submission, Rd 2.
Jonathan Solomon: This fight is a rematch of their exhibition held during their time on TUF, in which Diaz submitted a green Gray Maynard. Now, it's nearly three years later and Maynard is on the cusp of earning a shot at B.J. Penn. Maynard is undefeated and one of the top wrestlers in the lightweight division. The one criticism against him is that he may not look to finish fights of late, winning his last five fights by decision. Meanwhile, Nate Diaz is looking to put another winning streak together after submitted Melvin Guillard in September. Diaz has struggled against wrestlers recently with decision defeats against Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson. I see no reason why this fight should play any differently. Diaz is not a great striker to the point that he can dominate Maynard standing and on the ground, Maynard's superior strength should cancel Diaz's jiu-jitsu.
Winner: Gray Maynard, Decision
Larry Csonka: While Nick Diaz holds the win in their first fight, I do not think that he will repeat that. Diaz had a bad time with Guida and Stevenson, guys with size and good wrestling, and now he steps into the cage with Gray Maynard, three years later, who is a much better fighter, and beating everyone put in front of him. Yeah he isn't flashy, he doesn't finish people, but he WINS. That may not make him popular, but winning pays the bills.
Winner: Gray Maynard, Decision
Samer Kadi: Am I the only one putting little stock in their fight on the Ultimate Fighter? Despite Diaz coming out victorious in that one, this is a horrible style match up for Nate. We've seen him struggle with guys who can overpower him like Guida and Stevenson. In the latter's case, Diaz wasn't even coming up against a good wrestler. Maynard happens to be the best wrestler in the division with improving striking skills. Given that Nate has little power in his hands, Gray can afford to test the waters standing. If he feels he's getting the worse of the exchanges, he will have no trouble taking the fight down whatsoever. Plus you have the fact that Nate always throws his punches flat footed and doesn't offer the slightest footwork. Maynard will close in the distance and take the fight down in no time. Diaz is very slick with his submissions particularly from the bottom, which might be his only hope here. With that said, Maynard is very smart from the top and gives guys very little room to maneuver. It's not the most exciting approach, but Maynard will hold Diaz down and put his weight on him and nullify his hips, to prevent him from setting up a triangle. Diaz has a nasty guillotine, but his best hope would be to catch it in the scrambles, which is where he had the most success against Joe Stevenson. However, Maynard is a different animal than Joe Daddy, and he will control Diaz easier than Stevenson did. Diaz will try to force the scrambles with his trademark reverse kimura roll thing, but Maynard is too seasoned for that. I see "The Bully" taking a decisive if uneventful decision.
Winner: Gray Maynard, Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: Diaz has historically not done well with people who have been able to impose themselves on him, often falling victim to wrestlers who can avoid submissions well. Gray IS that wrestler. However, Maynard has been able to grow rather nicely since his time on TUF 5, and right now his strengths are no longer just being a big wrestler. He has some pretty heavy hands that were starting to tag Roger Huerta, and to be honest I think Huerta is better than Nate Diaz. I'm not expecting Maynard to knock Diaz out, but I could see him again bullying his way to a unanimous decision.
Winner: Gray Maynard, Unanimous Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Many fans seem to believe that it's a foregone conclusion that Maynard will win and clinch an eventual title shot. However, people constantly overlook Diaz as a fighter. Diaz's ground game is highly underrated and he's an incredibly tough, sound fighter. Maynard's good, but since he was unable to finish off the likes of Jim Miller and Roger Huerta, I don't see him finishing off Diaz. I think this will be a bit of a grind to start, but Diaz will pull off the submission victory in the third round.
Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 3
Jeremy Lambert: This is a big fight in the Lightweight division because a win for Diaz earns him the biggest win of his UFC career while a win for Maynard likely gets him a title shot against BJ Penn. Diaz defeated Maynard during The Ultimate Fighter 5 show with a guillotine choke but Maynard has improved tremendously since that time. In his two UFC losses, Diaz has lost to wrestlers who have controlled him in the clinch. If I'm Diaz, I would concede the takedown and put my ground game to work, knowing it's better than Maynard's. On the feet Maynard has the advantage because he hits hard and his boxing is very good for a wrestler while Diaz has your typical Diaz PEPPERING PUNCHES striking, which is effective but only over the course of the fight while Maynard only needs one punch. I'm pulling for Diaz because I'm a big fan of the Diaz brothers and I would rather see Frankie Edgar fight BJ Penn but if Diaz tries to play a wrestling game with Maynard like he did against Guida and Stevenson, he's going to lose another decision.
Winner: Maynard, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This should look completely different from their last fight. Maynard has evolved to the point that he has good boxing to go along with is punching power, and good submission defense to go along with his wrestling. Diaz has much better submissions that Maynard but his boxing isn't as good as his brother Nick's. Maynard should be able to bully Diaz around here, pun intended.
Winner: Maynard, Decision.
The staff picks Gray Maynard, 6-2.
The 411 staff decided to keep score on these roundtables. At the end of the year, we will finally find out who is the best fight-picker on staff. The number of fights picked perfectly will also be included, but will not count for anything. After one event, here are the current standings:
Jeremy Lambert: 9-1, 4 perfect. Samer Kadi: 8-2, 2 perfect. Jeffrey Harris: 8-2 Dan Plunkett: 7-3, 1 perfect. Todd Bergman: 6-4, 2 perfect. Jonathan Solomon: 5-5, 2 perfect. Bill Wannop: 2-7, 1 perfect.
Remember to join 411's live coverage of the event Monday night!
