The Rear Naked Column 01.28.10: The Light Heavyweight Division in 2010

Posted by Samer Kadi on 01.28.2010

Shogun vs. Machida leads a busy year for the UFC LHW division, Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans look to settle their feud and Forrest Griffin will battle Antonio Rogerio Nogueira! 411’s Samer Kadi breaks down the future of the LHW division in 2010.

On Saturday 8th of May 2010, Lyoto Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua will get the chance to put one of the biggest controversies of 2009 to bed. In October of last year, UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida edged out Shogun in a highly controversial decision to retain his title. The backlash was overwhelming, as fans, fighters and media cried outrage over the result. Even UFC president Dana White expressed his disappointment with the decision and ensured that an immediate rematch will take place.

When the initial title fight between the two was announced, the reaction – even among the hardcore fans – was a bit underwhelming. Shogun had only looked good in one of his three UFC fights, a first round stoppage of former champ Chuck Liddell. Experts remained unsure whether Shogun had put his struggles behind him and question marks loomed over his conditioning and form. And despite his brilliant accomplishments in PRIDE, many didn't see him as a legitimate threat to Machida's title. Those doubts were all put to rest on October 24 when Shogun Rua manufactured a near perfect game plan and took the fight right to Machida. The decision created a buzz that the event itself had failed to generate in the weeks leading up to it.

To tell you the truth, the UFC couldn't have wished for a better scenario. As the buyrates suggested, the Machida-Shogun fight initially couldn't capture the fans' imagination. But after Shogun's performance as well as the extremely disputable decision, everyone is just longing for a rematch between the two, rendering the second installment of Machida-Shogun guaranteed money for Zuffa. Not only that, but who would have been next for Machida had he beaten Rua convincingly? With Rampage's exit and Rashad being only one fight removed from his loss to the champ, the UFC would have been left with little options.

As it stands, the outcome of the much anticipated rematch should provide the UFC with plenty of possibilities. And irrespective of the result, multiple big fights await the winner. So without further ado, let's look at the list of potential challengers:

If Machida wins:



Quinton "Rampage" Jackson: This for me, is a no brainer. If Rampage defeats Rashad Evans, he should get the title shot. Since losing his title to Forrest Griffin back in July of 2008, Rampage knocked out Wanderlei Silva at UFC 92 and followed it up with a decision victory over Keith Jardine. A win over Evans, who's universally considered a top five light heavyweight, would surely put Jackson in the number one contender spot.

In my opinion, Machida Vs Jackson is the biggest fight that can happen in the light heavyweight division at the moment. They're arguably the two biggest stars in that weight class, and they match up really well. Jackson's power and chin will allow him to come out aggressive, knowing he can take Machida's punches. The problem for Quinton is that he's abandoned his wrestling roots. We saw Shogun have moderate success in the clinch with Machida, and contrary to popular belief, Jackson is more than capable in the clinch (at least when he's not getting destroyed by Shogun or Wanderlei). He has the ability to push him against the fence and utilize his dirty boxing.

The other problem for Rampage recently is that he's implementing very little footwork. Instead, as witnessed in the Forrest and Jardine fights, he's coming out flat footed and swinging hard without setting up his strikes, trying too hard for a knockout that never came. When he was patient and picked his spots, he sent Wanderlei Silva to sleep. Machida's movement is way too good for Jackson to take this lazy approach.

Randy Couture: Let me first say that I in no way would like to see the winner of the Couture-Coleman fight receive a title shot. But as we all know, if Randy wins the fight (as he should), a title shot will become a possibility. Although that will in part depend on his performance as well as a couple of circumstances.



For Randy to get the shot, Machida needs to win, and Rampage has to lose. I think the UFC's main interest regarding Couture is in a potential fight with Lyoto Machida. If Shogun wins, they'll have other options for him, but more on that later. Shogun-Couture doesn't have the same ring to it. The real selling point in this one will be Machida's mystique against Couture's defining the odds, dragon-slaying (no pun intended) reputation. Couture is the miracle maker and the ultimate baby face. The UFC hype machine will likely do a great job in selling the fight and making people believe Randy stands a chance. The buyrates will be off the charts and everybody gets a nice paycheck.

In theory, Couture has the tools to trouble Machida. He possesses the kind of wrestling, clinch game, game planning and experience to take The Dragon out of his element. But really at this stage, Machida is too quick for "The Natural". I'd be surprised if Randy makes it out of the second round.

If Shogun wins:

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson: Again, a no brainer. If Rampage defeats Rashad, he will be the number one contender, regardless of the winner in the Machida-Shogun fight. When the UFC first signed Shogun back in 2007, the initial plan was to have him fight Rampage for the title in a rematch of their 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix fight, when Shogun demolished Jackson in the first round. Obviously, Forrest Griffin had different ideas.



Three years later, that fight is a possibility once more. Rampage has come a long way since his fight with Shogun five years ago. He takes his training a little more seriously and actually trains with a real camp. Rampage's boxing is vastly improved, and if Shogun gets wild, Rampage will floor with a counter hook. But with Shogun's new found maturity and discipline in the ring, I would still favor him over Jackson. I see him using the same game plan he did against Machida. He'll take Jackson's legs away the same way Forrest Griffin did (if not worse), and he has the speed to avoid Jackson's counters. He may not finish him this time around, but the edge certainly goes to Shogun in my book.

Rashad Evans: This of course, is in case Rashad topples Rampage. Unfortunately for him, I don't think he'll be getting a title shot if Machida comes out victorious as his knockout loss to The Dragon is still relatively fresh on everybody's minds, so Rashad would probably need an extra win or so. On the other hand, a win over Rampage should ensure him a title shot if Shogun were to emerge victorious.

Rashad is actually a tougher match up for Shogun than Jackson is. Rashad is quick, explosive and has the wrestling to put Shogun on his back. The one area in Shogun's game that's always been shaky is his takedown defense. Rua has never shown much of a sprawl or an overall solid base. He operates well off his back mind you, but I don't see him catching Evans in a submission, or scrambling from underneath him for that matter. He will however, have the edge in striking.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: The UFC would need to showcase their fight on the best of PRIDE show and hype it up as a big deal in order to get newer fans to watch. The pair engaged in an epic battle in the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix quarter final, where Shogun edged out Rogerio in one of the greatest fights in PRIDE history.



After his stunning display against Luiz Cane, Rogerio Nogueira is set to take on former UFC light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin in a fight I fully expect him to win. Nogueira is just a horrible match up for Griffin as he possesses better boxing, better chin, more power and superior jiu-jitsu.

With that said Nogueira would likely need another victory to secure a title shot.

Anderson Silva: I'm saving the best for last. Anderson Silva's manager Ed Soares has recently spoken on his client's ambitions, stating that he would like to take part in the biggest fights possible. Most of those fights happen to be at light heavyweight. While we will likely never get to see him square off against his teammate Lyoto Machida, a fight with Shogun is a distinct possibility.

The story writes itself really, as Anderson will be looking to avenge his friend's loss. And even if he denies it, I'm sure Anderson will be licking his chops over the prospect of simultaniously holding two titles in two different weight classes.

Of all the fights I've just discussed, this is the one I'd be looking forward to the most. I would favor Anderson because of his vastly superior boxing. Silva's boxing is much more technical, and his counter striking precision will likely put Shogun in trouble. His footwork, head movement and overall defense is also superior. Shogun probably has more power in his kicks and his leg kicks are more effective. He's also the better fighter on the ground and he will likely look to put Anderson there. Rua's guard passing ability is greatly underrated, and I think he can do some damage from the top.

2010 promises to be a year full of huge bouts in the light heavyweight division. But as far as I'm concerned, none will be more anticipated than the Machida-Shogun rematch.



That does it for this week. As always, feedback is appreciated so please leave your thoughts in the comments' section below. I'll see you in seven days.