Cardio Freak MMA News Report 02.15.10: Going Down Under

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 02.15.2010

Cardio Freak is back with a preview of UFC 110. Will the Cain Train finally be derailed? How much of his best does Wanderlei have left to give? How will we know if God is a MMA fan? All those questions and more are answered inside. Plus thoughts on Anderson Silva's new opponent, Randy Couture's potential next opponent, and recent UFC cuts. It's more relentless than Cain Velasquez, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Headline News

The Octagon ventures to Australia this Saturday with a card that is potentially the final nail in the PRIDE coffin. It's been a huge February for Australia and they not only have UFC this weekend but Taylor Swift kicked off her FEARLESS TOUR 2010 down under as well. I'd envy the country if it weren't so poorly run.



UFC 110 is headlined by Cain Velasquez taking on Antontio Rodrigo Nogueira in a Heavyweight clash.

I'm going on record right now and saying that this fight will be the best Heavyweight fight of the year. Both fighters are known for their relentless ground work and conditioning who never stop working and are extremely tough to stop. It has all the makings of being a non-stop action filled fight.

On the feet Nogueira has some of the best technical boxing in all of MMA. He doesn't overextend himself with his punches and he throws tight crisp strikes. Like any good boxer, he throws a lot of one-two combinations. Cain's striking is advanced as Nog's but he's a good technical striker. He like to come over the top with the right hand and he sets that up by level changing and making his opponent think he's going to shoot for the takedown. Both guys have holes in their striking defense though. Cain was tagged and rocked multiple times by Cheick Kongo with the straight right hand and doesn't keep his hands as high as he should. Nogueira throws a good straight right but unfortunately he doesn't have the power of Kongo. In his recent fights, Nogueira has been constantly tagged with the uppercut whether it be with the lead or the power. Nogueira is also open to leg kicks and Cain does throw good kicks. If it stays standing it's really a toss up as to who wins. Neither fighter has the power to really KO the other, Nogueira is a better technical striker, and Cain is the more well-rounded striker.

Cain is going to dictate where this fight takes place. If he's winning the striking battle then maybe he'll keep it on the feet but if he's losing that battle, even though Nogueira is the best Heavyweight grappler in MMA, he'll take it to the ground.

On the ground it's all about control and positioning and both men excel in those areas. Nogueira is great off his back, always threatening with submissions and sweeps while Cain is relentless with his ground and pound and is always one step ahead of his opponent who are trying to sweep. To beat Nogueira on the ground you need good positioning and submission defense. Cain has the positioning but we've never seen his submission defense tested. My gut tells me that his submission defense is good but we won't know how good until this fight. If Cain trusts his submission defense then maybe he'll posture up in the guard of Nogueira and rain down strikes but if he doesn't then he'll likely be content with laying in the guard, which opens him up for sweeps. Cain's best chance on the ground is to posture to his feet, throw the legs aside, and punch pass to a better position.

If Nogueira ends up on top then I suspect it'll be a short night for Cain. He's not used to being on his back, his submission defense is untested, and Nogueira has an excellent positioning top game. Cain has a slight size and power advantage so he might be able to muscle his way out of bad positions but he also runs the risk of giving up a worse position or a submission.

Cain might be best served to keep this fight in the clinch and press Nogueira against the cage. Randy Couture had his most success against Nogueira in the clinch and on clinch breaks Nogueira has a tendency to be slow out of the break and drop his hands.

This is a tough fight to pick. Unless he's on his death bed, you can never count out Nogueira in any fight until the final bell rings. On the other hand, I've been on the Cain Train since his UFC debut and I've always felt that he's the most skilled of the Big 3 Wrestlers (Cain, Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar) who all debuted within a couple of months of each other. I'll pick Cain to win this fight. His wrestling will dictate where the fight will be, Nogueira will have trouble with the pace he'll set on the ground, and I trust that his submission defense will be good enough to survive. I don't think he'll finish Nogueira but this is the fight where fans will finally stop asking questions about Cain and start realizing he's as good as advertised.



Wanderlei Silva officially makes his Middleweight debut against Michael Bisping.

To say this is a big fight for Wanderlei Silva would be an understatement. You can fight the best guys and have exciting fights but when you're 1-5 in your last six fights, you desperately need to win that seventh fight. Silva's breathed new life into his career by moving to Middleweight but sooner or later you have to win a fight.

Michael Bisping is a solid and well-rounded fighter but I'm not sold on him like every single European MMA fan seems to be. He's a good counter striker when you plod forward and load up on one punch like Chris Leben did but we saw in that Dan Henderson fight that Bisping couldn't get his counter striking going because Henderson stayed patient and picked his shots. Silva is known of his aggression but he's had a very patient aggression lately. He still leads with the left and follows with the wicked right hook but he's looking to counter more than in the past. I think kicks could play a big role in this fight. Silva has excellent timing on kicks. He countered the leg kick of Keith Jardine and that led to the kockout and he constantly countered the kicks of Rich Franklin, which led to Franklin throwing less kicks than he usually does. On the flip side, Bisping doesn't check leg kicks so I would expect Silva to constantly throw them in order to slow down the movement of "The Count".

For a European, Bisping is a very good wrestler. That means he's an average at best American wrestler but Silva is Brazilian and this fight is taking place in Australia so that means advantage Bisping. His takedowns are pretty predictable as he puts his hands up and then shoots but he gets away with it against lesser wrestlers. Silva has never shown great takedown defense but on the ground he has a very good defensive guard. Bisping isn't one to lay in guard though as he likes to posture to his feet and rain down with ground and pound. He's going to have a tough time doing that against Silva as Silva is always looking for an upkick and he's good at pushing off and getting to his feet.

In the clinch Bisping likes to grab the plum clinch, which is a muy-thai staple. If he tries to play that game with Silva then chances are he'll lose because Silva is a muy-thai expert while Bisping just tries to play one in the cage.

There are two X factors in this fight: the chins of both men and the weight cut for Silva. Bisping was brutally KO'd two fights ago against Dan Henderson and he was dropped by Denis Kang in his last fight. He's shown a good chin throughout his career but we all know that Silva has the power to turn his lights out again. On the flip side, Silva has suffered three brutal KO losses in his last six fights and he's been in a countless number of wars over his career. Bisping has never shown KO power on his feet but if Silva's chin is gone then he's ripe for anyone to knock him out again.

This is also Silva's first fight at 185. He cut to 195 against Rich Franklin, looked completely drawn out, and reports indicate that the cut didn't go so well. Now he has to cut an extra ten pounds I have to imagine that Silva will come into this fight and not have 100% conditioning while Bisping has never shown a tendency to gas out.

My heart wants Silva to win but my head is telling me that he doesn't have "it" anymore and that Michael Bisping is a good enough fighter to beat this version of Wanderlei Silva. I'm going to pick Silva though just because I don't think Bisping's power isn't enough to crack Silva's chin, his wrestling won't be good enough to do anything with Silva, and sooner or later Silva will just catch him on the feet and drop him. I've never wanted to be so right on one of my predictions that didn't involve Chuck Liddell. I thought about picking Bisping just so if he won I would be right and if he lost I would be happy but you guys read for expert analysis and not because I straddle the fence. Because straddling the fence hurts when you're a male.



George Sotiropoulos gets his first big test at Lightweight as he takes on former title challenger Joe Stevenson.

Stevenson has reinvented himself under the guidance of Greg Jackson. In his last two fights he's gone back to his wrestling rather than trying to trade strikes so much with his opponents and it's led to two victories. Stevenson looked extra impressive in his last fight against a very tough Spencer Fisher as he took him down, controlled him, and unloaded on him with elbows that forced a stoppage. Sotiropoulos has looked impressive in his UFC career but Stevenson will certainly be his toughest fight to date.

Sotiropoulos is actually a really good striker. He likes to throw three punches at a time and he's very crisp and technical with his striking. He doesn't have much power in his hands though. Stevenson is a good striker but rushes in a bit too much and doesn't really mix things up enough. If it stays standing for a long period of time I think Sotiropoulos will out strike Stevenson most of the contest.

I don't expect it to stay standing very long though. Stevenson knows that his bread and butter is in his wrestling so he'll try to put Sotiropoulos on his back as quick as possible. Sotiropoulos' takedown defense has never really been test but he's a big and quick guy for Lightweight so I'd imagine that it's pretty good. Still, Stevenson is a powerful guy at 155, he's been wrestling since his college days, and he's relentless with his takedowns. Sotiropoulos might actually try to surprise Stevenson with a takedown of his own in this fight. He has a quick shot and we've seen Stevenson taken down by lesser wrestlers before.

Sotiropoulos' main strength is jiu-jitsu but we've never seen how good his game is off his back. In his previous UFC fights he's shown off his excellent top skills but chances are he'll be on his back this fight so he'll be working from his guard. Stevenson is a tough guy to submit from your guard because he's also a jiu-jitsu black belt and he's a stocky guy with power. Plus Stevenson is very active on top with short elbows and it's tough to submit a guy who is grinding elbows into your face. If Sotiropoulos can get on top of Stevenson I think he can submit him because Stevenson's ground defense isn't very good and I think Sotiropoulos has one of the best top games in the Lightweight division.

I'm picking Stevenson to win this fight simply because he's faced some of the best fighters in the world and beaten some good fighters while Sotiropoulos is jumping from Jason Dent, who is mediocre at best, to a former title challenger. I liken this fight to Ben Saunders vs. Mike Swick back at UFC 99. Saunders was on a roll against mediocre competition, stepped up against a battle tested Swick, and ended up overwhelmed and losing.



I apologie in advance for not caring about Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine. Bader is a boring wrestler with no personality and I've never gotten the appeal of Jardine. It's an important fight in the division because the winner moves up to relevance or stays relevant but I just don't care.

Jardine is an "unorthodox" and "awkward" (take a shot every time you hear those words this weekend) striker who throws punches from all kinds of angles and likes to start and end his combinations with kicks. Jardine has power in his hands but he also has a very suspect chin. Bader is a heavy handed striker who loads up on his right hand and leaves himself open for straight counter punches. Anytime a wrestler fights someone who loves to kick I always say that the wrestler should takedown his opponent on the very first kick thrown. That puts it in their head that every time they kick they'll end up on their back and thus they'll stop kicking, effectively taking away one of their main weapons. I implore Bader to use that strategy in this fight.

This fight will probably come down to Bader's wrestling against Jardine's takedown defense. Jardine is actually an underrated wrestler and grappler but that doesn't mean he'll be able to stuff the takedowns or submit Bader, who is a very strong wrestler and survived on the ground against Eric Schafer, a much better grappler than Jardine. As strong as Bader is, he's easily controlled on the ground and doesn't do much damage on top unless his opponent is already hurt.

I like Bader to win this fight. His wrestling should be good enough to put Jardine on his back and if his right hand connects it could be goodnight for Jardine and his suspect chin.



Mirko "Cro Cop" battles Ben Rothwell in a fight where we'll finally know once and for all if God is a MMA fan. Mirko should destroy Rothwell. The old Mirko would have destroyed Rothwell. But this is the possible washed up Mirko. How washed up is he? We'll find out this Saturday.

On the feet Mirko has a clear advantage and we know what we're getting from him. He's going to constantly look for the straight left and he'll use a lot of leg kicks and body kicks in order to set up the high kick. It's worked for him for years and while it might be predictable at this point, he's too stubborn to change his ways. Luckily Rothwell isn't a great fighter so everything should work for Mirko in this fight. Rothwell doesn't like to check leg kicks so I expect Mirko to chop him down and Rothwell's striking is slow and sloppy, which should allow Mirko to batter him with the left straight at will.

The thing Rothwell has going for him in this fight is his size. We've seen in recent fights that Mirko can be bullied around in the clinch. That's Rothwell's best hope in winning the fight because if he tries to stay in the pocket and exchange strikes with Mirko then chances are he's going to get knocked out. Rothwell likes to throw two or three punches and then clinch but he doesn't do anything with the clinch. Against Mirko he has to make him pay in the clinch with dirty boxing and knees. He would also be smart to try and trip Mirko down to the ground and put him on his back. While Mirko has a good defensive guard and Rothwell most likely won't be able to pass, he can at least stay in guard and deliver some elbows.

I think God is a MMA fan so I have to pick Mirko "Cro Cop" in this fight. While he may not be the fighter he once was, Ben Rothwell isn't a top level fighter and he's a guy that even a possibly washed up "Cro Cop" should beat. I think Rothwell will want to keep it standing in order to make up for his last UFC performance and that will lead to Mirko battering him with straight left hands and kicks en route to a TKO victory.



This is by far the best UFC card so far this year (that's not saying much) and we could be in store for some fight of the year candidates and deadly KO's. It could also be the "Fanboy Death of PRIDE" if Nogueira, Silva, and "Cro Cop" all happen to lose. A monumental moment to say the least.

Official Predictions:

*Cain Velasquez to defeat Rodrigo Nogueira by Decision
*Wanderlei Silva to defeat Michael Bisping by TKO in Round 1
*Joe Stevenson to defeat George Sotiropoulos by Decision
*Ryan Bader to defeat Keith Jardine by TKO in Round 1
*Mirko Cro Cop to defeat Ben Rothwell by TKO in Round 2

Major UFC/WEC News



On February 11, UFC announced that Vitor Belfort had to pull out of his UFC 112 Middleweight Title Fight against Anderson Silva due to a shoulder injury. One day later UFC announced that Demian Maia would take Belfort's place in the fight and the bout would remain for the Middleweight title.

First off, I hope Belfort recovers quickly because when he's one his game he's an exciting fighter to watch. While I wasn't giving him much of a chance against Anderson Silva, I was looking forward to the fight because Belfort is someone who would engage against Silva and that always brings out the best in "The Spider".

When it was first announced that Belfort was out of the fight, I immediately thought that Randy Couture was going to be the replacement. Abu Dhabi paid a lot of money for big fights and big names and they don't come much bigger than Couture vs. Silva. Plus a Couture win would have left no doubt that he deserves a title shot and Silva win would only add to his myth and put him in a title position should Lyoto Machida lose to "Shogun" Rua. Unfortunately the fight isn't meant to be. Yet.

My other hope was that we would get Silva vs. Rich Franklin 3 because that's my cruel mind wanting to see how bad Silva could beat Franklin this time around.

A while ago I wrote that Demian Maia has the skills to beat Anderson Silva. After all, the only time we've seen Silva finished in MMA was by submission (twice) and Maia has the best MMA jiu-jitsu in the sport. That claim lost some luster after Silva easily fending off the jiu-jitsu of Thales Leites but I've always claimed that Leites' MMA jiu-jitsu was overrated. Silva does have excellent ground defense though and we just saw Dan Miller stifle the jiu-jitsu of Maia with good ground defense. Maia has the skills to submit Silva but I can see this fight looking a lot like Leites vs. Silva from last April. Silva will defend everything Maia throws at him on the ground early and Maia will continue to grow frustrated until he can't get him to the ground anymore. On the feet Maia won't engage much and that will lead to Silva dancing around and trying to punch him in the kneecap.



On February 12, Sherdog reported that Randy Couture vs. Rich Franklin is in the works for UFC 115 in June. Couture might have other commitments that will push the fight back until August.

It's clear that UFC is trying their best to give Couture winnable fights in order to get him one more crack at the title. No disrespect to Rich Franklin but he's always been a product of UFC hype. He's a good fighter and solid guy to have around but I don't think he's as good as UFC makes him out to be. Is he good enough to beat a 46 (10 days away from 47 by the time the fight rolls around) year old Randy Couture? Certainly. But on paper Rich Franklin is a winnable fight against Couture. Franklin has never shown very good clinch or takedown defense, he's decent off his back but he's not bringing anything to the table that Couture hasn't dealt with before, and he has decent power in his hands but most of his TKO victories are because his strikes just wear on people over time, which is different than having one punch KO power.

Couture obviously needs another fight before getting a title shot and with all the big names at 205 booked throughout the summer, Rich Franklin is as good of an opponent as anyone.



Following UFC 109 the company released the following fighters:

*Mark Coleman
*Frank Trigg
*Tim Hague
*Phillipe Nover
*Rolles Gracie

The most baffling name on this list is easily Mark Coleman. Although he didn't look good against Randy Couture and it was clear that he isn't going to be a top level fighter again, he still headlined the PPV and was taking MMA as serious as ever. He was 1-2 in his UFC comeback with his two losses coming to "Shogun" Rua and Randy Couture. Not exactly slouches. This sets up a weird situation for UFC because if Wanderlei Silva loses his fight this weekend he'll be 0-3 in his last three and 1-6 in his last seven. The loser of Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz will be 0-3 in their last three and Liddell would be 1-5 in his last six while Ortiz would be 0-4-1 in his last five. While none of those guys will get cut because they're still big draws for the company and certainly bigger draws than Coleman, based on just sport it's very reasonable that UFC should cut them.

Coleman will be back though. Once Tito Ortiz loses to Liddell again, they're going to need Coleman to comeback just give Ortiz a victory over someone. Even though we all know they'd both be done as top level fighters, they'd easily be able to sell the fight with the backstory and personalities of both fighters.

The other names on the list aren't too shocking but I am a bit disappointed that Frank Trigg was released. I'm not a fan of Trigg and he obviously wasn't going anywhere in the Welterweight division (he should move back up to Middleweight to start fresh) but I'm not a fan of releasing guys who were just on the main card. If they're good enough to be on the main card, they're good enough to earn another fighter. If they lose they should be regulated to the preliminary card and only prelim losers should be cut. It sort of takes away from Matt Serra's victory because he just beat a guy who was released so really, how good was he?

Also, did UFC swerve us by openly stating that Justin Buchholz vs. Mac Danzig was a loser leaves town fight and then they ended up keeping the loser or because it was openly stated did they just not bother to announce he was released as everyone just knew? Inquiry minds want to know.

No More News

That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a review of UFC 110. Take care everyone.

For those that can't enough Cardio Freak, I've decided to start the Cardio Freak MMA Blog that is sure to last a week or so. The blog will feature fight reviews, spraining news, recreational money (gambling) tips, and some other stuff. Check it out. Please.

Cardio Freak MMA Blog

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