411’s MMA Roundtable Preview: UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 03.26.2010

The UFC returns to PPV Saturday night! In the main event, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre defends his belt against Dan Hardy, the co-main event features a heavyweight battle for the interim strap between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin, Jon Fitch takes on Ben Saunders, and much more! Check out 411’s complete UFC 111 roundtable for all the details!



WELCOME:
The UFC returns to the east coast with two title fights! In the main event, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre defends his belt against Dan Hardy. The co-main event features a heavyweight battle for the interim strap between former champ Frank Mir and the heavy hitting Shane Carwin. Plus, Jon Fitch takes on Ben Saunders, Kurt Pellegrino battles Fabricio Camoes, Jim Miller goes up against Mark Bocek, and more! Let's meet the staff and get to the picks!

THE STAFF:

From TBerg's Top 10, Todd Bergman!

From 411 Movies/TV, Games, and multiple MMA interviews, Jeffrey Harris!

From the Cardio Freak MMA News Report, Jeremy Lambert!

From A View From the Cheap Seats, Scott Kuczkowski!

From The Rear Naked Column, Samer Kadi!

From the Takedown MMA News Report, Daniel Bonnizzio!

From the MMA Legacy, Bill Wannop!

And your host for this roundtable, from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!





THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
Welterweight Bout: Matt Riddle vs. Greg Soto

Todd Bergman: Matt Riddle, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Matt Riddle, Decision
Jeremy Lambert: Riddle, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Soto, Submission, Round 2
Samer Kadi: Matt Riddle, Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: Greg Soto, Submission, RD 3
Bill Wannop: Matt Riddle, Unanimous Decision
Dan Plunkett: Riddle, Decision.
The staff picks Matt Riddle, 6-2.

Middleweight Bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal

Todd Bergman: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, 1st Round
Jeffrey Harris: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, 2nd Round
Jeremy Lambert: Palhares, Submission, Round 1
Scott Kuczkowski: Palhares, Decision.
Samer Kadi: Tomasz Drwal, Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, RD 1
Bill Wannop: Rousimar Palhares, Unanimous Decision
Dan Plunkett: Palhares, Submission, Round 1.
The staff picks Rousimar Palhares, 7-1.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman

Todd Bergman: Rodney Wallace, TKO, 2nd Round
Jeffrey Harris: Jared Hamman, Decision
Jeremy Lambert: Wallace, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Hamman, TKO, Round 1
Samer Kadi: Rodney Wallace, Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Bonnizzio: Rodney Wallace, Decision
Bill Wannop: Rodney Wallace, TKO, Rd 2
Dan Plunkett: Wallace, Decision.
The staff picks Rodney Wallace, 6-2.

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SPIKE TV CARD
Welterweight Bout: Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown

Todd Bergman: To be honest with you, I'm not a fan of Almeida. He usually does just enough to win a decision but absolutely nothing extraordinary in the process. I thought that Kendall Grove actually beat him, but the flaws of the "Octagon Control" were exposed and gave Almeida a weak decision victory. In this fight he gets an opponent who, on paper, he should beat due to his below-average submission defense. However, Matt Brown is "Immortal" and brings some huge punching power to the fight. Brown will have his chances, but I think that more times than not, Almeida gets the fight to the ground and rides out another boring decision.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I actually like this fight, and it should be interesting to see how Almeida handles a cut down to 170. Brown is a banger and always brings it, and I hope that's no exception here. That said, I think this one will go to the judges hands and I think Brown having more experience at 170 will have done enough to get it ruled in his favor.

Winner: Matt Brown, Split Decision

Jeremy Lambert: I always want to doubt Matt Brown and yet he continues to prove me wrong. Not this time Mr. Brown, I will be correct. Almeida is just a bad match up for Brown. On the feet, Almeida is competent enough to not get caught and on the ground, he's leagues above Brown. The only thing that worries me about Almeida is that he's cutting to Welterweight for the first time and if he can't get the submission in the first round, he could become very gassed out and be forced to fight the rest of the fight on the feet, where Brown will likely pick him apart and possibly finish him if Almeida gets too exhausted. I'm going to doubt Brown again even though I actually like him and how he fights but this just seems like a bad match up.

Winner: Almeida, Submission, Round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Matt Brown is a workhorse and this will be Ricardo Almeida's first welterweight bout. Almeida hasn't had the best cardio in the past, and if this cut to 170 was tough for him, then I suspect he will gas out once the pressure is on him. Brown will probably look to keep this on the feet and pressure Almeida. Brown is good on the ground, but Almeida is way out of his league when it comes to grappling. If Brown decides to roll with Almeida, he could get caught. I think Brown will play it smart and win this on the feet.

Winner: Brown, TKO, Round 3.

Samer Kadi: Matt Brown has improved considerably since his Ultimate Fighter days. He's always been a big puncher but recently, he's developed more of an all around game. His striking in general is diverse, he's got decent kicks and knees and is dangerous in the clinch. His grappling has improved significantly, and he's now very competent on the ground particularly from the top. His submission defense has always been a bit iffy, but he's lately improved that as well. He will need it in this fight, as his opponent is a world class Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, even though I don't think Almeida has adapted his BJJ particularly well to MMA. The key for Almeida will be securing the takedowns. Brown has also developed a solid sprawl but he relies on his natural strength to stay upright. The problem with that is that he has a habit of gassing out in the second half of the fight, so he's going to be increasingly prone to takedowns as the fight progresses. As long as Almeida isn't blasted in the striking, he should hold his own in the opening round before taking the fight to the ground in the second and work from there, and perhaps even snatch a late submission over the exhausted Brown.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Round 3.


Daniel Bonnizzio: Ricardo Almeida is known as a guy who tries his damndest to ride out the decision win. Matt Brown really isn't going to let him. He showed some well-improved submission defense skills in his last bout against James Wilks, and while I don't think that it's going to be enough to prevent every submission "Big Dog" throws his way, it will be enough that he won't get submitted on the first try. Almeida has never had the greatest cardio, and it's been proven that dropping weight has a huge effect on your tank. If Brown can keep the pressure on he will win and I think that's just what's going to happen.

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, RD 2.

Bill Wannop: Matt Brown has been impressive lately with huge with huge TKO wins over Pete Sell and James Wilks, while Almeida has earned decision wins in his last two fights. While Almeida is good on the ground, Brown has solid takedown defense and is a stronger puncher, so I look for him to keep it on the feet and put Almeida down and out.

Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Rd 1

Dan Plunkett: At first glance this would seem to be a fight Almeida should win. However, this is Ricardo's first cut to welterweight, and as we see all the time the first cut takes a big toll on a fighter. Brown is a relentless fighter that is somehow always in it. If Brown can survive the first round without getting submitted, I think he takes advantage of a tiring Almeida and wins a close decision.

Winner: Matt Brown, Decision.

The staff picks Matt Brown, 5-3.

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Welterweight Bout: Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham

Todd Bergman: Nate Diaz finally doesn't have to cut weight which means that he no longer has to control his marijuana fueled munchies. Diaz has never been knocked out before and Markham has a habit of being controlled and I think that Diaz's style will be too much for him. Diaz's punching power will never be confused with a Shane Carwin or Brock Lesnar's but his style of punches in bunches will be enough to get the decision victory for Diaz. This fight might be a little closer then what everyone might think it will be.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: This is an interesting match-up with Diaz jumping up to 170. Markham's only 1-1 in the UFC so far. I think Diaz definitely has an advantage with his reach and his unorthodox striking style. But it just seems like Diaz doesn't always take fights as serious as he should. He seemed to be showboating and playing around a lot more in the Guida fight rather than seriously try to win the fight. That said, I don't see Diaz getting knocked out or submitted by Markham. I think Diaz takes this by decision in his 170 debut.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: Rory Markham is coming off a Mir Layoff, which immediately tells me that he's going to lose. He's a good striker but Diaz has he Diaz genetics where he may get dropped but he recovers very quickly. On the ground Diaz is the better fighter, especially off his back. Diaz has bulked up to Welterweight for this fight but based on pictures he seems to have put on muscle and not fat for this fight and bulking up has less affect on a fighter than cutting down. On equal levels I'd still pick Diaz to win but considering Markham is coming off a Mir Layoff, I'm fair confident that Diaz will win.

Winner: Diaz, Submission, Round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: If Nate Diaz can come into this fight with more strength and muscle and still have the same speed and cardio, then he should put on a good performance. Markham should be a good opponent, but I don't think he is on the level that Diaz is. I doubt Diaz will submit Markham, so I assume he'll be content to pepper him with shots and get the decision.

Winner: Diaz, Decision.


Samer Kadi: Personally, I think Nate Diaz's move to the welterweight division isn't the soundest decision he's ever made, but that is neither here nor there. At lightweight, Diaz struggled with physically stronger fighters who could outwrestle him. Thankfully for him, Markham doesn't fit that mold. Instead, he's a slugger with some serious power. Nate Diaz has many technical deficiencies with his striking. He's flatfooted and throws with little power (or technique for that matter). However, like his brother, he does put decent combinations together and never lets his opponent rest. The smart thing for Diaz would be to avoid an unnecessary brawl, although he does possess the chin to hold his own. If he can secure the takedown, he should be successful on his welterweight debut.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 2.


Daniel Bonnizzio: Nate Diaz is moving up a weight class which means he should be packing a little more muscle and frame behind him. If he can bring his great BJJ with him and remember that he's a BJJ guy and not a ‘peppering puncher' like his brother then he should have this one no problem because, while he can use his reach to keep Markham at bay eventually it would be smart of him to take Rory down and once he's there, Nate should be able to handle him easily.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, RD 2

Bill Wannop: Nate Diaz moves up in weight, taking this fight at welterweight, which I feel is a great move for him. He will not have to contend with AS MANY incredible wrestlers as there were in the lightweight division. The only way he has lost is by being taken down and held, and I don't think Markham has the skills to do that. I think Nate is better in all positions then Markham and look for him to end it by TKO.

Winner: Nate Diaz, TKO, Rd 2

Dan Plunkett: Markham hasn't fought in more than a year. That alone leans me towards Diaz in this fight. I think it would be risky for Diaz to stand with Rory here, but on the ground he will have a big advantage.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 2.

The staff picks Nate Diaz, 8-0.

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THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek

Todd Bergman: This is a pretty simple fight to predict. Bocek struggled to stop Mac Danzig and his takedowns, and Jim Miller is a savage and should be able to push Bocek into deep water in this fight. Miller takes the workman-like decision victory. It's not exciting and probably shouldn't be on the main card but when life gives you lemons, you punch that bitch in the face.

Winner: Jim Miller, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Both guys are on winning streaks in the UFC and have been looking good lately. Both are pretty good mid-to-upper level UFC lightweights. Miller's always exciting and fun to watch and so Bocek usually this. This has potential to be a really good fight. Miller is an absolute beast and a more well-rounded fighter than Bocek though. I'd also say that Bocek is the more experienced and seasoned grappler and BJJ practitioner boasting 10 career wins by submission. I think Miller takes the sub in the third round.

Winner: Jim Miller, Submission, 3rd Round

Jeremy Lambert: Anytime Jim Miller fights, I'm excited. Seeing that they're in New Jersey is Miller is from Jersey, I hope he comes out fist pumping and beating up the beat before he beats up the Bocek. Bocek is a good fighter but Miller is better and he's on the rise. His boxing is improving, his wrestling his very good, and he's a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Bocek is good on the ground but he's going to have a tough time putting Miller on his back or catching Miller with anything off his own back. I like Miller to either grind out a decision or finish the fight late.

Winner: Miller, TKO, Round 3

Scott Kuczkowski: Jim Miller is the definition of perpetual motion. While Bocek has some nice submission wins under his belt, I don't think he will have much luck against Miller. Miller should be able to get this fight to the ground and begin to pummel Bocek. Will he finish him? I seriously doubt it.

Winner: Miller, Decision.

Samer Kadi: Jim Miller may just be the most exciting lightweight flying under the radar. He's always been a terrific grappler. His wrestling skills are very solid and he possesses a very polished submission game to top it off. He also displayed some much improved striking in the Duane Ludwig fight, where he eventually finished him with a beautiful armbar. Mark Bocek is more than capable of holding his own in the grappling department. He's shown some serious BJJ chops in his last three match ups and will no doubt be a handful for Miller if he can get top control, where his grappling game is most effective. The problem for him however, is that Miller is a much better wrestler. I see Miller out-striking him, taking him down, come out on top of the majority of the scrambles, and get the nod on the judges' scorecards.

Winner: Jim Miller, Unanimous Decision.

Daniel Bonnizzio: Jim Miller works and works and works. Mark Bocek, not so much. Bocek is no slouch, especially on the mat but I feel that Miller is an all-around better fighter and is going to outwork, outstrike, and outgrapple the Canadian en route to a decision win.

Winner: Jim Miller, Decision

Bill Wannop: Both fighters have been on a roll, however, Miller has faced tougher competition, and just seems to have the edge in terms of cardio and pacing. I look for him to outwork Bocek and earn the decision

Winner: Jim Miller, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: Mark Bocek is skilled on the ground, but I have a hard time seeing him being able to get on top of Miller or submitting him from his back. Miller should get the win here.

Winner: Miller, Decision.

The staff picks Jim Miller, 8-0.

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Welterweight Bout: Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders

Todd Bergman: Takedowns will reign supreme in this fight. Saunders has a punchers chance but his inability to stop Fitch's wrestling means another decision victory for Fitch.

Winner: "Mean Face" Fitch, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: This is an interesting shotgun match-up for both guys. This is also a huge opportunity for Saunders who is coming off an impressive KO win over veteran Marcus Davis. Fitch however I don't think is a good match-up much like Mike Swick. I expect Fitch to basically grapple and take down Saunders enough to win. Saunders has really good striking and Muay Thai standing, but I don't think that will be a problem for Fitch to avoid.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision


Jeremy Lambert: Ben Saunders is really a lesser version of Thiago Alves. They're essentially the same fighter except that Alves is a better striker and has better wrestling but Saunders is better off his back. Like Alves, he's also a huge guy at Welterweight. I'm very high on Saunders and thought he would make a meteoric rise this year but going from Marcus Davis to Jon Fitch is a huge jump in competition. Don't sleep on Ben Saunders. I really want to pick him to win this fight and I'm going to kick myself if he wins and I didn't trust myself to make the pick. But I'm going to go with Fitch by his usual method.

Winner: Fitch, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Saunders has stopped a few opponents with his knees, but I don't think they'll be very effective off his back, which is probably where this fight will end up. Fitch would be foolish to stand and trade with him, so I'm betting Saunders will spend the majority of this fight on his back, pressed up against the cage, with Fitch trying to punch him in the face. Each round starts on the feet and Saunders was training to fight a wrestler (Ellenberger), so there is always a chance he could catch Fitch, but I somehow doubt it. Fitch should be able to continue his road to a rematch with GSP.

Winner: Fitch, Decision (surprise).

Samer Kadi: Ben Saunders is a nightmare for any fighter in the division to face, simply due to his gigantic reach. His varies from mediocre to poor, but he's an expert at utilizing his kicks to control the distance and keep his opponent at bay. If that wasn't enough, he's just a headache for anyone in the clinch. Fitch presents an interesting match up as he likes to go for his takedowns from the clinch. Whether he wants to be there with Saunders remains to be seen. However, Fitch usually sets them up against the fence, giving Saunders little room to work with. Saunders' guard work is pretty average. Despite his lanky frame and long legs, he rarely poses any submission threat from the bottom and is usually content to attempt the rubber guard (key word being attempt). However, it is usually good enough to avoid any significant damage. Fitch isn't a ground and pound machine by any stretch of the imagination, but he should be able to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, as he often does.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Unanimous Decision.

Daniel Bonnizzio: "Killa B" has some very strong knees, and because the guy is pretty tall for the welterweight division – he stands a pretty 6'3" – those knees will come easily. Fitch is a strong wrestler so he's going to try and get the fight to the ground as often as he can because he is going to want NO part of Saunders's knees. If Fitch wants to take Saunders down, it's probably going to happen, and if GSP wasn't able to put Fitch down after mauling him for 25 minutes, somehow I doubt that Ben is going to be able to put Fitch down. The best he can do is hope that he can defend the takedowns to keep the fight standing and try to outpoint Fitch. I'm honestly hoping that Saunders brings his iron knees to the fight, but the logical part of me is saying that it's not going to matter.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision

Bill Wannop: Apparently as I write this Alves has not been cleared to fight as CT scans found an irregularity in his brain, and Fitch will now fight Ben Saunders. Against Saunders Fitch will have the advantage on the ground, and should easily be able to take him down. Let's hope that Fitch can actually finish a fight, which I think he will be able to against Saunders

Winner: John Fitch, Submission, Rd 2

Dan Plunkett: This was supposed to be the battle to determine the second best welterweight in the world, but for the second time we don't get to see Fitch vs. Alves II. Saunders is a beast in the Thai Clinch but Jon Fitch is an animal that always wins (except when he fights Georges St. Pierre). I wouldn't be too surprised if Saunders pulled the upset, but I can't go against Fitch here.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision.

The staff picks Jon Fitch, 8-0.

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Lightweight Bout: Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes

Todd Bergman: Batman, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I think Pellegrino wins this one with his wrestling and takedowns much like the Neer fight where Pellegrino dealt with a guy who is a decent striker and has some decent BJJ. I was not so impressed with Camoes performance against Caol Uno, but what can you do. It was his own fault. I think Pellegrino gets the decision here.

Winner: Kurt Pellegrino, Decision


Jeremy Lambert: Two jiu-jitsu guys but Pellegrino has better wrestling, which means he should be able to get the takedown and just avoid anything Camoes throws at him off his back. This fight will probably end up looking a lot like Pellegrino vs. Neer from UFC 101 and that's not really a good thing.

Winner: Pellegrino, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Pellegrino, Decision

Samer Kadi: While Camoes might be the better striker, this is a difficult match up for him. He's unlikely to finish Pellegrino standing up, and on the ground, Pellegrino has very good grappling himself. In fact, Pellegrino is the better wrestler, and he should implement his usual strategy of taking the fight down and working some solid ground and pound. Camoes' best chance would be to catch Pellegrino with a submission from the bottom, which is just highly unlikely.

Winner: Kurt Pellegrino, Unanimous Decision.

Daniel Bonnizzio: "Batman" returns after his "less than inspiring" win over Josh Neer at UFC 101 to take on Fabricio Camoes who, were it not for illegal kicks, would have beaten Caol Uno. I think Kurt is going to stick to the winning formula of takedown and hold down, apply moderate ground and pound, look for submission attempts, and walk home the decision winner. Normally, I would think that Pellegrino would submit his opponent, but Camoes is a better ground fighter than most. Sorry Camoes but no dice for you today.

Winner: Kurt Pellegrino, Decision

Bill Wannop: Kurt Pellegrino, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: I don't like this match-up for Camoes. Pellegrino is going to take him down and keep him there for the duration of the fight. The Josh Neer fight proved he can do that to people, and I see it happening again here.

Winner: Kurt Pellegrino, Decision.

The staff picks Kurt Pellegrino, 8-0.

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UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship Bout: Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

Todd Bergman: Everyone talks about the punching power of Shane Carwin, but I don't think that he will be able to handle the boxing of Frank Mir in this fight. Yes, there is always a chance that Carwin could land one of those huge bombs and turn out Mir's lights, but the best way to beat a brawler is to outbox him. In Carwin's fight with Gabe Gonzaga, Gabe showed that Carwin is vulnerable to big strikes just as much as he able to deal them out. Mir knows what to expect from Carwin in this fight. Shane will want to counter punch anything that Mir throws and hope that it lands. Shane, on the other hand, doesn't know what Mir will do. Mir could get this fight to the ground just as Gonzaga did, or he could simply outbox Carwin. It's been over a year since Carwin last fought, and I don't think that he will be as sharp as he would like to be. Mir gets the 1st round surprise to some kind of TKO finish as he breaks Carwin's nose and gets the stoppage victory. Mir vs. Lesnar III is a rite of passage, and it needs to take place.

Winner: Frank Mir, TKO, 1st Round

Jeffrey Harris: This is a tough call for me. In what little we've seen from the Kongo fight and also the Nogueira fight as well, Mir has improved his boxing and his standup. However that didn't save Mir from an opponent like Lesnar. I don't think Carwin's power should be underestimated and at the very least I find it very hard to believe this fight will go out of the first round. I'm going with Carwin since I'd say he has the superior punching and knockout power of the too and arguably the better chin.

Winner: Shane Carwin, KO, 1st Round

Jeremy Lambert: I'm really looking forward to this fight. Frank Mir is as sharp as he's ever been and as motivated as he's ever been. Carwin is coming off a long layoff but he's been a monster in every fight he's been in in his career. Carwin hits really hard and is a powerful wrestler while Mir is a better striker, has power, and is great on the ground. On the feet Mir has to use his good technical striking and footwork to avoid the big right hand of Carwin and on the ground he's got to use his newfound size and good jiu-jitsu to create sweeps and scrambles. I like Mir in this fight just because I know more of what he's about. If Carwin can't takedown Mir and keep him down or if he can't finish him in the first round, how will he react? I think Carwin will get the takedown but Mir will end up using his craftiness off his back to catch Carwin with a submission and it's very possible that the submission will be a knee bar.

Winner: Mir, Submission, Round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: Carwin has demonstrated that he can take a heck of a punch and still recover and win the fight. Carwin has also shown he can get off his back when taken down by a good grappler. The biggest question for Carwin is how big is his gas tank? Mir should be the better technical striker, but I'd give Carwin the edge when it comes to power. Mir of course has great submissions, but I think we're all foolish to think Carwin isn't going to be expecting submission attempts. Mir's losses have all been via KO/TKO, so I think Carwin is going to want to test his chin and knock it off his head, which I think he can do. Mir might try to drag this into the later rounds and test Carwin's cardio, but Mir hasn't even been known as a cardio machine himself, and I doubt age and the extra muscle will help that situation. Mir will have to put together a good gameplan to win this while Carwin only has to land one punch. I give the edge to Carwin. I will say this though, if Carwin loses, I predict we'll see him have to decide whether or not he wants to be a fulltime fighter or a part-time fighter/engineer.

Winner: Carwin, KO, Round 1.

Samer Kadi: If we're judging this fight from a skillset perspective, Frank Mir should take this one. However, match up wise, things are more interesting. Frank Mir is undoubtedly the more proven fighter. Technically, his stand up is superior. He possesses some pretty decent footwork, puts together nice combinations and throws the occasional body kick. He will also be the faster fighter. As long as he can utilize his movement and circle away from Carwin's big right hand, he should dominate the stand up. Carwin's striking is fairly one dimensional, as he's entirely reliant on his right hand. With that said, if it does connect, Mir's night will be over. It needs to be said that Mir has never been able to take punishment. When he gets hit, he crumbles (just watch the Brandon Vera fight). If Carwin doesn't like the way the striking exchanges are going, he could always take the fight to the ground. Mir's guard work presents a mixed bag. He's active and certainly poses a submission threat, but he's not very good at avoiding damage. If he doesn't submit Shane quickly in a scramble, Mir might suffer a similar fate to the one he's endured against Brock Lesnar. Mir's cardio has always been in question although with his newfound dedication, he should be fine. Carwin on the other hand, has never gone past the three-minute mark. I've picked against Mir in his last four fights, and he's made me look silly three times. Of course, this can only mean…

Winner: Shane Carwin, KO, Round 2.

Daniel Bonnizzio: Carwin is a big wrestler who likes to throw bombs every time. Fact. Frank Mir is a BJJ player with some surprisingly solid Muay Thai/boxing skills. Fact. Neither of them are known to have a good tank (we don't even know if Carwin has a tank, let alone a good one). What we do know is that Carwin is hittable and Frank Mir is hittable. The question is going to be who hits who first and how hard? Frank is going to be able to get in and out on Carwin better than Carwin will on Mir, but all it takes is one lucky punch from Carwin's 5XL gloves to turn Mir's lights out. However, I like to think Frank is smarter than that and is going to be able to avoid those big hits and if/when Carwin takes him down, expect to see a sweep from half-guard and Frank applying a vicious Kimura from the top.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, RD 1

Bill Wannop: Frank Mir faces off against what he calls a better version of Brock Lesnar in Shane Carwin. I don't fully agree with that as Carwin has yet to be tested in terms of his ground game or cardio. While Carwin packs a huge punch his striking is rudimentary, so Mir has the advantage in terms of angles, speed and technique. If Mir can avoid the huge shot from Carwin, I feel that he should able to pick him apart from the outside. This will frustrate Carwin and force him to use his takedowns, which will play right into Mir's hands.

Winner: Frank Mir, Submission, Rd 2

Dan Plunkett: I have a hard time picking against Mir in this bout. Carwin was impressive against Gabriel Gonzaga in the respect that he got up from his back after being hurt and he showed incredible knockout power. However, he did get hurt in that fight. Mir's stand-up is better technically and he has the ability to knock out Carwin just as Shane has the power to knock him out. If Carwin decides to take this to the ground, we've never seen him on top of anyone would as good BJJ as Mir. Also, Carwin hasn't fought in more than a year. While he hasn't been injured badly, that layoff could certainly hurt him. I see this fight taking place on the feet, so I'm picking Mir to find Carwin's chin.

Winner: Frank Mir, KO, Round 1.

The staff picks Frank Mir, 5-3.

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UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

Todd Bergman: After watching some of the Prime Time shows, the question must be asked: how is Matt Serra going to help Dan Hardy stop a takedown? It's obvious that Hardy is just trying to get under GSP's skin as he thinks that it will rile up the champ. That's not the best strategy as Serra himself found out in their rematch. GSP will dominate this fight with takedowns and ground and pound. Hardy has struggled in the past against fighters who want to get the fight to the ground. A lot of people are getting hung up on Hardy because of his punching power. While he does have a great knack of knocking people silly, all of those finishes came against favorable match ups. Being submitted by the likes of David Baron and Pat Healy does Hardy no favors in this fight. The first round is the ultimate breaking point for Hardy as he will barely survive. The opening moments of the 2nd round become Hardy's Little Big Horn as he does the three-tap dance to a textbook Rear Naked Choke. If you don't believe any of this then just believe that GSP greases, and Hardy can't handle that riddum.

Winner: Still UFC Welterweight God Georges St. Pierre, Submission, 2nd Round

Jeffrey Harris: The thing is, I like Dan Hardy and I don't mind seeing him get a shot at the title. But that being said, I don't see him beating GSP at all. Dan Hardy actually has some good striking and power, but I don't think he will be able to handle GSP's wrestling. Dan Hardy and others only seem to be bucking on the Matt Serra fight which happened years ago, and nothing close has happened to GSP since. GSP was in the cage with a dangerous striker like Thiago Alves, and Alves could barely do anything against GSP. I think GSP will grind this one out against Hardy if he doesn't ground and pound him early. Hardy also just looked out of his element when he tried to keep fruitlessly taking down Mike Swick in their fight.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, TKO, 4th Round

Jeremy Lambert: We all know the story of this fight. If Dan Hardy is going to win, he's going to catch GSP early, likely with a left hook, and that will be that. If he doesn't catch GSP early, chances are GSP will just takedown Hardy and beat him up for 25 minutes, until the ref stops it, or until he sees an opening for a submission. Maybe GSP proves that there aren't as many holes in his striking game as hyped to be and he stand a while with Hardy but why take that risk? Hardy has a decent sprawl but certainly not good enough to stop the takedown of GSP and is ground game certainly isn't on the level of someone like BJ Penn. GSP is just a more well rounded fighter and he's in a zone right now. It only takes one punch but logically you have to take the guy who has more than a punchers chance.

Winner: St. Pierre, Submission, Round 3

Scott Kuczkowski: Hardy has to land a lucky punch while GSP can do just about anything he wants to Hardy, including outstrike him. If Hardy manages to stun GSP, this fight will go to the ground before Hardy can even think about capitalizing. On the ground, Hardy will discover the difference between rolling with Matt Serra and having a world class athlete punch you in the face. I don't see any way this fight makes the championship rounds unless GSP it just feeling charitable.

Winner: GSP, TKO, Round 3.

Samer Kadi: Many have been quick to downplay Hardy's chances because of St. Pierre's bout with Thiago Alves, where he was able to handle an arguably more dangerous striker. However, where Alves' striking game plays right into St. Pierre's hands, Hardy possesses a different kind of stand up. Dan Hardy is a counter striker at heart, who despite being a proficient Tae Kwon Do and Muay Thai practitioner, is most dangerous with his boxing. Hardy's hands are extremely polished by MMA standards, and rarely does he get reckless. The problem for Hardy is that he's fighting someone who's methodical, calculating, and doesn't take too many unnecessary risks. For Hardy, controlled aggression will be vital. He can't let St. Pierre dictate the action with his jab for the duration of every round, and he can't expect the champion to recklessly charge at him. Committing to any sort of attack will largely depend on Hardy's confidence in staying vertical. St. Pierre is an absolute master at changing levels and dropping for the takedown with remarkable quickness. He also sets up takedowns with his strikes perfectly. Hardy's chances will grow, albeit slightly, if he can scramble back to his feet once taken down. Question marks remain as to how well Hardy operates off his back. I suspect Georges will have little trouble passing his guard, but it will be key for Hardy to stay out of submissions. His chin, toughness, grit and sheer willpower mean he is unlikely to be stopped with strikes – be it on the ground or standing – but submission defense could be a determining factor. Ultimately, St. Pierre is the big favorite and deservedly so.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, Submission, Round 3.

Daniel Bonnizzio: The longer this fight goes on, the worse and worse Dan Hardy's chances get. Everyone (including Team Hardy) has admitted that the only way Hardy is going to win is by landing a huge lucky punch. If he manages to stun GSP with one of these miracle punches, GSP – the fine-tuned athlete he is – should be able to instinctively take him down until he has his senses about him. If that happens I expect GSP to immediately work for the finish because GSP will just outclass Hardy on the ground en route to an early submission win.

Winner: Georges St-Pierre, Submission, RD 2

Bill Wannop: Many have argued that Dan Hardy should not have been given the title shot and I somewhat agree, but the fact remains that if it wasn't Dan Hardy, who else would it be? Hardy stands an outside chance of ‘Matt Serra'ing GSP, by landing that one huge strike, but outside of that he is outclassed in this fight. GSP is faster, stronger and more athletic, and should easily mix up his takedowns and strikes to frustrate Hardy and finish him off on the ground.

Winner: GSP, TKO, Rd 3

Dan Plunkett: There's no reason to pick against GSP here. Hardy won't be able to stop his wrestling; St. Pierre's top control is some of the best in MMA, his guard passing is incredible and his submissions are far better than Hardy's. Standing, St. Pierre is also very good, but there's no reason for him to risk the fight by fancying Hardy on the feet. It won't even be close.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, TKO, Round 2.

The staff picks Georges St. Pierre, 8-0.

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The 411 staff decided to keep score on these roundtables. At the end of the year, we will finally find out who is the best fight-picker on staff. The number of fights picked perfectly will also be included, but will not count for anything. Here are the current standings:

Jeremy Lambert: 51-22, 16 perfect.
Samer Kadi: 54-30, 13 perfect.
Dan Plunkett: 53-31, 19 perfect.
Larry Csonka: 21-11, 9 perfect.
Jeffrey Harris: 47-36, 12 perfect.
Daniel Bonnizzio: 34-30, 9 perfect.
Scott Kuczkowski: 18-13, 6 perfect.
Todd Bergman: 29-23, 6 perfect.
Jonathan Solomon: 43-41, 13 perfect.
Bill Wannop: 22-28, 2 perfect.

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