The Rear Naked Column 04.22.10: The Future of Jake Shields

Posted by Samer Kadi on 04.22.2010

Jake Shields’ big victory over Dan Henderson made him the hottest free agent in the sport, with Strikeforce looking to keep him under their banner and the UFC looking to add him to their roster. 411’s Samer Kadi examines the future of Jake Shields...

When contract negotiations between Dan Henderson and The Ultimate Fighting Championship fell through, it didn't take long for the MMA legend to find a new home in Strikeforce. It was viewed as Strikeforce's biggest signing since their acquisition of the world's number one heavyweight, Fedor Emelianenko. Henderson's addition was widely seen as a momentous move for the promotion, as his ability ability to compete in two different weight classes provided the company with some much-needed options.

For his promotional debut, Henderson was pitted against middleweight champion Jake Shields. At first glance, the matchmaking seemed somewhat odd, as then-light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi was desperate for contenders. When news of Jake Shields' contract situation broke out, the decision suddenly made more sense. Shields had one fight left on his contract and by all accounts, he would become a free agent after the conclusion of the bout. Not wanting Shields' contract to expire while holding their middleweight title, Strikeforce were essentially banking on Henderson to rid them of a potential headache.



As it often happens in MMA, things didn't pan out according to the plan. After surviving an early Henderson onslaught, Shields went on to make a remarkable comeback from the second round onwards, dominating Henderson on the ground with relative ease despite ultimately failing to put him away. With the victory, Shields' stock catapulted to an all time high.



Despite fighting at welterweight – a division in which most of the top fighters are under contract with the UFC – for the majority of his career, Shields has managed to rack up some very impressive wins over any relevant fighter not signed with the UFC. Moreover, when Shields was done defeating every solid non-Zuffa welterweight, he did not hesitate in moving up in weight. In his first fight with Strikeforce, Shields squared off against top ten middleweight Robbie Lawler at a catchweight of 182 pounds. Shields entered the fight as a big underdog, but it didn't take him long to dispose of "Ruthless" with a first round guillotine choke. Shields followed it up by capturing the middleweight title in a hard fought decision victory over the always-game Jason "Mayhem" Miller.

When he submitted Paul Daley in October of 2008, Shields was widely regarded as one of the top five welterweights in the world. Eighteen months later, he has unexpectedly made his way into the middleweight division top five. Such has been the success of Jake Shields, who now finds himself awaiting the more lucrative offer as the UFC and Strikeforce battle for his services.

Where Shields ends up largely depends on whether or not Strikeforce will be able to match the UFC's offer. Dana White went on the record stating that while he may not be able to sign Shields, he will make it "very expensive" for Strikeforce to keep him. Despite the UFC having the bigger resources to sign Shields, Dana White's attitude suggests that he may not necessarily look to get Shields at all costs, but instead choose to play a cat and mouse game with Strikeforce until they are forced to shed out some serious money to keep him home. This could come down to how much Strikeforce values Shields. Realistically, Strikeforce can't afford to lose a champion who's freshly coming off a big win over one of their biggest stars. They put all their eggs in the Dan Henderson basket for the Nashville show, and it ended up backfiring. Keeping Shields is, in theory, vital for the promotion's credibility. For whatever reason, the middleweight division is the deepest division in Strikeforce (aside from maybe the heavyweight division). The man reigning over it is now one of their most established fighters, and they can't afford to lose him. If Scott Coker and company can top whatever the UFC is prepared to offer him, Shields will stay put. Any other scenario will likely see Shields fighting in the Octagon in the not-so-distant future.

In Strikeforce, most of the money fights for Shields aren't necessarily competitive. The two names to come up in recent times were Cung Le and Frank Shamrock. And while both fights would be fun – one for the action, the other for the build up – they aren't the kind of contests the Strikeforce middleweight champion should be engaging in. On the other hand, the one fight that does make sense – against Jacaré Souza – is one that Strikeforce doesn't seem to be too fond of given its lack of marketability. Instead, they scheduled a puzzling title eliminator featuring Jason Miller and Robbie Lawler.

Which is why for Jake Shields, a move to the UFC makes sense for both parties. By his own admission, Shields is more comfortable fighting at welterweight. With his training partner Nick Diaz sitting atop the welterweight division in Strikeforce, Shields is forced to fight out of his comfort zone at 185 pounds. Granted, his results suggest this hasn't really affected him. In addition, Shields has long been vocal about his desire to test himself against the best welterweights in the world (most of whom happen to be fighting in the UFC), namely Georges St. Pierre. With GSP all but cleaning out the division, Shields' chances of an immediate title are quite solid. From a competition perspective, Shields would definitely face sterner tests fighting under the Zuffa banner. Even if he were not to receive an automatic title shot, the different match ups that await him in the UFC welterweight division are infinite. Whether it's tussles with strikers such as Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves, battles with wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and John Fitch, or Jiu-Jitsu clinics against Dustin Hazelet and Ricardo Almeida, Shields will prove to be a healthy addition to the 170 pounds weight class.

Whether he does well in any of those bouts is a different issue. Stylistically, the kinds of fighters Shields will have success against are the ones he can outwrestle. As long as he doesn't run into a counter hook, Shields should be able to dominate – and possibly submit – Dan Hardy, whose power isn't nearly as big as the UFC hyped it up to be leading up to the Georges St. Pierre bout. Paulo Thiago and Ricardo Almeida, despite their high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, would also have a hard time dealing with Shields. His wrestling is superior to both, and he will likely be able to take them down and gain advantageous positions to get the decision.

However, against any of the consensus top four fighters in the welterweight division, Shields may very well struggle to mount any significant offense. Koscheck's stand up – while incredibly flawed – will be enough to give Shields problems, while his wrestling is far superior. Against, Alves Shields will have to close the distance to get the takedown. He is not really a power double leg kind of wrestler, and instead looks to finish his takedowns from the clinch or off of single legs. Before getting in close on Alves, Shields will likely get battered with leg kicks. When it comes to Jon Fitch, the AKA standout is a superior striker with better wrestling, and is also known for having some of the best submission defense in the game. Fitch's reputation in the gym is that he's practically impossible to choke out. Shields' best bet would be to try to force scrambles and look to gain dominant positions from there, a tall order against a seasoned fighter like Fitch.

A fight with Georges St. Pierre – while definitely one that needs to happen – is probably the toughest stylistic match up for Shields out of any fighter in the welterweight or middleweight divisions. Many people seem to label Shields as a stylistically interesting match up for GSP due to his high level BJJ. The problem is, Shields' submission game shines when he gains top position, as he's really not as dangerous when fighting off his back. Shields' guard – while solid – isn't really on par with the rest of his ground game. Realistically, there is no way to envision Shields securing top position. Quite clearly, St. Pierre will be the much superior wrestler. Aside from his incredible takedown defense, St. Pierre's jab and ability to control the distance ensures that Shields will have a hard time getting anywhere near him, making it difficult to even attempt a takedown. In all likelihood, grappling won't be much of a factor in this bout as St. Pierre keeps the fight standing and picks Shields apart. Using the Dan Henderson fight as an indication of how a potential bout with St. Pierre would go is misguided, as St. Pierre possesses much better defensive wrestling, technical striking, and cardio.

Regardless of any stylistic hurdles he might face against the elite welterweights in the UFC, Shields has never been one to shy away from a challenge. Dan Henderson was seen as a nightmare match up but Shields found a way to prove the doubters wrong. Whether or not he gets the chance to silence the critics once more depends on Strikeforce's offer, and how far the UFC are willing to go to ruin it. If Zuffa feels the absolute need to secure Shields' services, they will.

As always, feedback is greatly appreciated. I hope you're as excited for WEC 48 as I am. You guys have a good one, and I'll see you back in seven days.