MMA 3R’s 07.09.10: Nogueira/Mir II, DREAM.15, Strikeforce/M-1 Global and More

Posted by Matt Welch on 07.09.2010

From the double dose of Nogueiras at UFC 119 to this weekend’s fight between Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri and more, 411’s Matt Welch takes a look at the Right, wRong and Ridiculous in the latest edition of the 3R’s of MMA!



The Back Story

A staple of the 411 community for quite some time, the MMA rendition of the 3R's takes a look at the goings-on and items of intrigue in mixed martial arts, all broken down to three categories: the Right, the wRong and the Ridiculous (with a little middle-road puRgatory thrown in along the way). With the right, you get good news bits or compelling fight announcements. Things dip down a tick or two with the wRong, where things like bad booking decisions and news bullets that have the community up in arms take precedence. And if you want to scrape the absolute bottom barrel of MMA news, those would be filed under Ridiculous. In the case of an event review, I'll even go the extra mile and tag on a score of 1-10, based on the 411 ratings scale.

Hey, you're not Larry Csonka!

I'm not going to lie, it's just odd seeing anybody but Larry's byline on this column. But for those who don't know who I am, I had a brief six-month run with 411 MMA last year as the mastermind behind the unoriginally-titled Five Finger Death Punch column. Drifting my tenure into the late summer, I snagged my first full-time job out of OU as a sports writer for a community newspaper chain in North Texas. Wanting to devote my time solely to making a smooth transition with that, I admittedly drifted out of the 411 landscape. But with summer taking form and my workload reduced, I need something to occupy my time so hopefully I can this column worth the read. As always, any feedback is welcome. So, with that all out of the way, let's move on to something of far greater significance, such as…

The 3R's of MMA!

The Right

Nogamania runnin' wild at UFC 119: In a week where the UFC 119 main card looks to be rounding into form, we've been blessed with both our headline and co-main bouts on Thursday. I don't mind Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Frank Mir as the headliner for UFC 119. I admit that I love that hindsight of MMA fans as one second we're arguing that the first fight meant nothing because Nogueira was riddled with staph and had no business fighting, and then the next it's that Nogueira is old, washed up and has no chance against Mir. Feels like a story we've heard over and over, and I shouldn't be surprised. But I don't think Nogueira is on the decline that some would perceive. It's hardly a black mark on his record that he got steamrolled by what in my opinion is the best heavyweight in the world and I think that was more of an indication of Cain Velasquez's improvements than Nogueira's shortcomings. But as for Mir-Nogueira II, I'm just intrigued because of the note the first fight ended on. Assuming both are healthy (and by all accounts, this won‘t be 265-pound Mir), I'd love to see a finality between these two. Would a Cro Cop-Nogueira rematch be welcome? Sure, but this is more marketable.

Prior to Mir-Nogueira taking the stage, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will have a chance to erase the sting of his underwhelming showing against Jason Brilz in a co-main tilt against Ryan Bader. It's two top-10 light heavyweights fighting each other, so rock and roll. Obviously, the Brilz fight humanized Nogueira a bit more and erased the unflappable killing machine label he was branded with after beating Luis Cane. Regardless, the Brilz fight certainly gives pause to a Bader upset here should he be able to implement his wrestling and avoid submissions from the top, although Nogueira has only submitted one opponent in the last five years and Brilz escaped everything thrown his way. Upright, Nogueira's far and away the better boxer but still managed to get tagged quite a bit by a porous Brilz and while his technique leaves a bit to be desired, Bader's power is no joke. But all in all, I have no problem with either of these fights. If it can't be a title fight, Mir/Nogueira is a perfectly acceptable headline bout with a backstory that writes itself and can easily be sold, and we'll have either Lil Nog or Bader emerging as a full-fledged title contender.

Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk targeted for UFC 119: After being out of sight since his unanimous decision loss to Frankie Edgar at UFC 98, Sean Sherk is finally on tap for a return to the UFC. And it'll be anything but a softball, as Evan Dunham is riding as much momentum as a fighter can muster right now. A win here would solidify Dunham as a title contender, while Sherk can reassert himself amongst the 155-pound elite with a vengeance, should he win. I'm just wondering if Sherk has learned anything from the Edgar fight; a bout that featured some of the game planning in recent memory. We'll see Sherk has kicked that softcore kickboxer mentality and finally goes back to his bread and butter as a wrestler. Granted, Dunham is no slouch off his back and offers a much more legitimate threat than Edgar would have posed. A fascinating fight by all accounts and given Sherk's near-16-month layoff, I might slightly favor Dunham as this juncture.

DREAM.15 this weekend: While the UFC and Strikeforce have dominated the fight scene for the past month, little ol' DREAM is still puttering along with an offering this weekend that features one of the biggest fights available in the Japanese MMA scene.

Headlining the card will be the long overdue clash of top-10 lightweight stalwarts Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri in a DREAM lightweight title bout. It's amazing that these two have been under the same roof for so many years, yet are just now coming to blows in a bout that will undoubtedly crown the top lightweight in the Japanese fight scene.

It's been run into the ground, but count me in with the bunch that think Kawajiri had to have been salivating at the sight of how Aoki fared opposite Gilbert Melendez not too long ago. A lot of those same stylistic edges are present in Kawajiri's game, whose edge in striking and size should allow him to keep things upright. Aoki's had some time to mull over the drudgeries of the Melendez fight and if he can get inside, his takedowns are sneakily underrated. Still, I like a Kawajiri decision in this one.

I've covered the underwhelming nature of the DREAM light heavyweight grand prix but beyond that, there's still some gold to be found. Top of mind is the return of Gesias Cavalcante, who meet Katsunori Kikuno. Kikuno have Eddie Alvarez some fits early on before being choked out and this fight is anything but a softball for "JZ." Already bound for Strikeforce, Cavalcante will attempt to shake off any ring rust before his journey stateside. A fighter whose potential has been hampered by knee injuries, Cavalcante should be looking to get things to the ground and work to capitalize on Kikuno's suspect cardio. All factors considered, a "JZ" decision would seem likely, but Kikuno is more than capable of acing the upset.

The wRong

Shogun out until March 2011 after knee surgery: Late last week, word trickled down that UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua would be sidelined until March 2011 after knee surgery; an injury that stemmed from his recent title win over Lyoto Machida. It's an obvious bummer it just puts another title picture on hold but even more troubling is what this could mean for Shogun himself. His UFC tenure is just five fights old over and hasn't even spanned three years, yet he's already endured multiple knee injuries in such a short span. We've seen the repercussions that surgery and cage rust can have in MMA, on Shogun in particular, and despite being just 28 years old, this just may be the way his career spins, which would be a major hamper to a potential that had reached its apex not too long ago. The layoff won't be anywhere near as substantial as the gap between the Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman fights, but it's certainly not an enviable spot to be in opposite someone like Rashad Evans.

The Ridiculous

The Fedor Emelianenko/M-1 Global/Strikeforce Mess: This meshes elements of the Right, wRong and Ridiculous, but this is becoming more and more of a train wreck by the day that slotting it here only seems fitting. But is anyone really shocked to hear that in the wake of Fedor Emelianenko's loss to Fabricio Werdum that M-1 Global is in full-fledged panic mode. Word has come out that the promotion's head office in Netherlands has closed down and despite assurances from Evgeni Kogan that all is well with the office, he can't so much as comment on if there are any employees who remain there. Either way, it's a state of turmoil and guess what M-1, you reap what you sew. This is the cost that comes with a promotion that enters around one fighter as your sole leveraging chip. For anyone who has come into contact with M-1 over the past couple years, it's been nothing short of a headache for either Scott Coker or Dana White because of their over-the-top negotiation parameters. Never has a fighter been more difficult to either sign or book than Fedor and now that his mysticism and allure are all but a footnote, they've lost whatever bargaining power they still had remaining.

That's not to say Strikeforce is absolved of criticism as well, as that promotion still doesn't seem to get it. While M-1 has been campaigning for a rematch between Emelianenko and Werdum, Coker would prefer slotting Fedor opposite heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem. Facepalm if you must, but this is why it's really hard to take Strikeforce. Beyond their insistence in putting the time and money into someone like Dave Batista or shafting fighters like Lyle Beerbohm or botching their online feed of the Joe Riggs/Jay Hieron fight, this would be the second consecutive time that they've paired Overeem opposite a challenger coming off a loss. It cheapens the product, the title and the general matchmaking of Strikeforce when there is no continuity from fight to fight when fighters are rewarded for defeat. Granted, some of it is out of Strikeforce's hands (I covered a bunch of it in last Friday's column), but you cannot continue giving fighters title shots following a loss. The rationale behind this is so they can lock Fedor into the promotion's championship clause with the other alternative being he leaves the promotion on a two-fight losing streak. At this stage, neither one would probably jive with M-1 but this is more so another instance of the mind-boggling of the Strikeforce brain trust.


That'll do it. Check back on Monday for a DREAM.15 in the next installment of the 3R's of MMA.