MMA's 3R’s 07.17.10: Lesnar/Velasquez, GSP/Retirement, Batista/Lashley

Posted by Matt Welch on 07.17.2010

From rumored Lashley vs. Batista clash and the heavyweight title scrap between Lesnar and Velasquez to Georges St-Pierre‘s blueprint towards retirement, 411’s Matt Welch takes a look at the Right, wRong and Ridiculous in MMA!



The Back Story

A staple of the 411 community for quite some time, the MMA rendition of the 3R's takes a look at the goings-on and items of intrigue in mixed martial arts, all broken down to three categories: the Right, the wRong and the Ridiculous (with a little middle-road puRgatory thrown in along the way). With the right, you get good news bits or compelling fight announcements. Things dip down a tick or two with the wRong, where things like bad booking decisions and news bullets that have the community up in arms take precedence. And if you want to scrape the absolute bottom barrel of MMA news, those would be filed under Ridiculous. In the case of an event review, I'll even go the extra mile and tag on a score of 1-10, based on the 411 ratings scale.

Hey, you're not Larry Csonka!

I'm not going to lie, it's just odd seeing anybody but Larry's byline on this column. But for those who don't know who I am, I had a brief six-month run with 411 MMA last year as the mastermind behind the unoriginally-titled Five Finger Death Punch column. Drifting my tenure into the late summer, I snagged my first full-time job out of OU as a sports writer for a community newspaper chain in North Texas. Wanting to devote my time solely to making a smooth transition with that, I admittedly drifted out of the 411 landscape. But with summer taking form and my workload reduced, I need something to occupy my time so hopefully I can make this column worth the read. As always, any feedback is welcome. So, with that all out of the way, let's move on to something of far greater significance, such as…

The 3R's of MMA!

The Right

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez targeted for UFC 121: After his No. 1 draw missing out on one year of action, I can't be surprised that Dana White is wasting little time in squeezing another million buys out of a Brock Lesnar fight. Lord knows the guy's star continues to grow by the day and if the 1.1-1.2 million who tuned for the Shane Carwin fight hold true, similar numbers should at the very least be expected in a fight opposite Cain Velasquez, which I find to be far more compelling than Lesnar/Carwin.

Carwin's penultimate puncher's chance will keep him alive in every fight he's in from this point on, but Carwin doesn't pack the well-versed repertoire of a Velasquez, who has a very, very realistic chance of beating Lesnar. I think that's a pretty contagious notion as few fights are as divisive as this one right now and I've made it known over the past two weeks that I slightly favor Velasquez for this fight. My most pressing notion to come out of UFC 110 was believing that Lesnar's days as champion were officially numbered and I've heard more than enough from the Lesnar contingent and I'm still not swayed. I've heard everything from the revisionist history that Velasquez's win over Nogueira was just a case of Nog being washed up to Lesnar winning simply by virtue of being the bigger fighter. I understand that Lesnar is big, but what's the counterpoint: that Velasquez is small? Since when does 240 pounds constitute a small heavyweight? Lesnar will no doubt be the bigger fighter, but I think imposing that size won't be as easy as most think. Mind you, Velasquez is far and away the fastest target Brock will have faced and poses the very realistic threat of absolutely wrecking him on the feet, both at a distance and in the clinch.

Lesnar simply dropping in for a power double won't be as clean cut against someone with Cain's speed, agility and wrestling pedigree. The latter is big too, as I think the wrestling is close to a push, with maybe Lesnar holding the slimmest of margins, but not enough to make it a clear advantage. Velasquez may not have an NCAA title to his name, but finishing in the top five against a more talented pool is hardly an indictment on Velasquez's abilities. He's also a more diverse wrestler than Lesnar, while Brock is largely just a power double guy, but I don't see Cain actively trying to put Brock on his back unless he's in a circumstance like Carwin, where he rocks Lesnar.

Also of note, the problems that were Carwin's undoing won't be there with Velasquez. Cain's not going to have an energy dump and tire himself out pounding on Lesnar, or at any point in this fight. People looked at the Chieck Kongo as an indictment on Velasquez's poor striking defense. Well, Velasquez has tightened it up since then but that fight more so showed that not only can Velasquez take a punch, but that he maintains his wherewithal in doing so and knows how to react. He doesn't panic and that's one thing that we haven't seen out of Lesnar. Granted, Carwin isn't the greatest litmus test for whether a fighter can take a punch, but there's no precedent to suggest that if Velasquez lands the same combo on Lesnar that dropped Nogueira that Brock is just going to smile and keep coming forward.

It just comes down to my belief that Velasquez's speed, agility and wrestling base will be enough to keep things upright where he steadily grinds Lesnar down. If Brock is successful in getting Cain onto his back, all bets are off and that is why this fight is just so darn fascinating.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Michael Bisping to headline UFC 120: Also coming down on the docket was the headliner for the next dose of UFC-numbered, Spike TV-fueled greatness, as Michael Bisping vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama will headline UFC 120.

As far as free TV main events go, this falls somewhere along the line of Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera on the relevancy scale for the middleweight division. The Chris Leben fight really took a bit of the shine off Akiyama, so a Bisping victory doesn't necessarily catapult him into the contendership stratosphere so much as it gives him another reason to lobby for a rematch with Wanderlei Silva.

For Akiyama, this fight is just a chance for the judoka to keep his head above the middle rung of the middleweight division. If Akiyama has any prayer, he needs to get his cardio woes in order. It's a roadblock that has hampered him in both the Leben fight and the Alan Belcher fight; bouts that were only made competitive because Akiyama tired out midway through.

As far as how this fight plays out, if Akiyama continues to tire out, Bisping should have every chance at working his in-and-out, decision-savvy boxing game. While stylistically, Bisping won't draw Akiyama into the same kind of firefight he faced at the hands of Leben, Bisping never stops working and while he doesn't have a single bullet in his gun that could drop Akiyama, his standard affair decision tactics could prevail.

Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone rematch at WEC 51: Maybe there is an example or two that escapes my memory, but the WEC has never really endured the matchmaking woes that would put off a prospective fight anywhere near the 20+ months that will elapsed when Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone finally clash in their rematch from WEC 38.

Nonetheless, the bout seems to be on the docket for WEC 51 in what's an odd matchmaking quandary in that a more definitive solution to the Varner/Kamal Shalorus debacle seemed more logical. At least with this move, it seems like a reward for Varner, who for all intents and purposes was screwed by Cameron Quwek in the Shalorus fight. A win over Cerrone puts Varner right back in the hunt for another crack at Benson Henderson with perhaps a bout against the Anthony Pettis/Shane Roller loser sealing it.

I liked Varner the first time around for his takedowns and cleaner, more efficient striking and under the tenets of a three-round fight, I'd likely favor him by much of the same.

UFC Fight Night 22 rounding into form: This gets bonus points simply for being in Texas and in a spot that I just might be going out my way to visit come Sept. 15. The card is rounding into form for the UFC's next Fight Night offering with a pretty solid main card on tap. Alan Belcher has been pushing for a fight with Anderson Silva for what feels like an eternity and for the sake of trying to take him seriously, the UFC has lobbed estranged title challenger Demian Maia his way in the night's headline bout. It feels like forever since Maia's slick submission of Chael Sonnen, but this is the kind of fight where his grappling should reemerge. Going toe to toe with Dan Miller is one thing, but Belcher will take Maia's head off if given the chance. Belcher's only submission loss has come at the hands of Kendall Grove back in 2007, but Maia has the chops to tap just about anything that is 185 pounds and has a pulse.

Matt Wiman and Mac Danzig co-headline the card in what on paper, looks like maybe the least intriguing of the four main card fights. Hopefully we can at least get some finality to this matchup, as the first one ended before it ever got started. It's hard to believe that Gleison Tibau could be on the precipice on contendership, should he beat Jim Miller. Tibau's a bull but doesn't exactly have that signature win to his record. He's faltered against the best competition he's faced and a win over Miller would do wonders in changing that tune. Cole Miller and Ross Pearson open up the night in an early bid for Fight of the Night. Pearson's becoming one of the most entertaining scrappers at 155 and this should be a good note on how far Miller's standup defense has come since getting lamped by Efrain Escudero. Sounds like a pretty damn good way to spend $75.

puRgatory

DREAM.15: Since I wasn't able to wrangle together a full column over this card, I'll just offer a couple quick hits for the hell of it. DREAM.15 was a bit all over the place, starting slow but picking up near the end. Obviously the biggest news bulletin to emerge from the card was Shinya Aoki reaffirming his alpha dog status atop the Japanese lightweight scene with what had to have been viewed as a shocking, yet anticlimactic first-round submission of Tatsuya Kawajiri.

It's just that this fight had been brewing for so long that when you see the clear top two lightweights in Japan square off, with a story so well laid out with Kawajiri always being cast in Aoki's shadow as DREAM's kingpin. Then, the Melendez fight goes down and all of a sudden this seems like as winnable a fight for Kawajiri as could be and that after playing second fiddle to Aoki -- the otherworldly submission specialist who gets on the nerves of so many fans -- that maybe Kawajiri has the chops to emerge from the shadows and unseat the DREAM lightweight champion. At least that's the narrative that I went into the fight believing and I'm an admitted Aoki mark. Nevertheless, this fight reaffirmed just why Aoki is so dangerous and was the world's longstanding No. 2 lightweight. If you're drawn into his world, all bets are off as the creativity and depth at which he grapples with will confuse the heavy, heavy majority of the 155-pound division, the UFC populace included.

Beyond that, Gesias Cavalcante will at least be heading to Strikeforce on a winning note. I don't think a bell-to-bell domination of a game Katsunori Kikuno was expected, but "JZ" looked vulnerable on several occasions in the standup game. Off his back, Kikuno had nothing for Cavalcante which ultimately ended up swaying the decision. Tatsuya Mizuno over Melvin Manhoef was surprising to say the least, but at this stage, you just can't be shocked when Manhoef loses in this fashion. I find it funny that word coming into the fight was that Mizuno had watched over 100 hours of Manhoef footage to craft this bulletproof gameplan, when realistically, Manhoef is as difficult to solve as a puzzle with two pieces. And Jake O'Brien went out in perhaps the most fitting manner to be expected after tipping the scales at 226 pounds for a 205-pound bout. So now Mizuno and Gegard Mousasi duke it out to determine DREAM's light heavyweight champion? Somehow it doesn't feel like the UFC will be relinquishing its stranglehold on the 205-pound division anytime soon.

Georges St-Pierre considering retirement: Retirement talk has become a regular occurrence on the MMA scene these days. Of course, people will always ponder what Fedor Emelianenko's next move will be in the light of his loss to Fabricio Werdum, Yoshizo Machida was recently interviewed and pondered the possibility of Lyoto retiring and now UFC welterweight demigod Georges St-Pierre has said that if he should beat Anderson Silva, retirement would enter the realm of possibility for him as well.

It's comments like these that I take with a grain of salt simply because of how far off we are from even seeing this scenario realized. Dana White has laid out a blueprint of Chael Sonnen and Vitor Belfort as the next two opponents for Silva before a superfight with GSP or a move up to 205 pounds becomes a reality. I don't think we're looking at any marginal time frame from the Sonnen fight to whenever the Belfort fight may be made. St-Pierre has his own workload to deal with and we've seen time and time again that some crazy things can happen in this sport. Given the time in which rumors of this fight happening have been circulating, would it shock anybody to see either man lose sometime before this fight gets made?

It shouldn't.

So let's say this fight comes to fruition. We're already looking at a steep timetable for how long it'll take GSP to comfortably pack on the weight needed to make 185 pounds and pending he does defeat Silva, what other challenges would await him? Granted there are a bunch of stylistic interests available at 185 pounds but the man would have already slain Anderson freakin' Silva. Already having dispatched of pound-for-pound regulars like Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves, do you really sit back on pins and needles to see how he'd fair opposite Sonnen or Nate Marquardt?

Having just turned 29 years old, I'd think a rational timetable for a Silva fight to go down – pending on how plan is, should he beat Koscheck, be it a Jake Shields fight or a rematch with either Alves or Fitch – is maybe a good two years or so from now, just because of the timing of the Belfort fight and the time it would take for St-Pierre to make a healthy adjustment to 185.

I know it's a bit jarring to envision an athlete the caliber of St-Pierre outlining a game plan for retirement when he still likely has several good years left of fighting left in him, but if the man has run out of feasible challenges, who are me or you to suggest otherwise? Perhaps the only challenge left would to see how long he could maintain that imaginary mantle of the undisputed pound-for-pound king, but he would already beaten far and away the best fighter who could pose a threat to that spot.

The wRong

The Dave Batista/Bobby Lashley/PPV Saga: I've already written at length what I think about Strikeforce bringing in Dave Batista, but the more and more I read it seems like the notion of him at least being a part of the Strikeforce roster is just something I'm going to have to accept. I word it that way because I admit to being skeptical on his ability to survive a full training camp without getting injured. Sorry, it's what I do when taking into account a 41-year-old broken pro wrestler with an exhaustive history of injuries.

But I regress because if Batista is in fact on his way to Strikeforce, CEO Scott Coker has already voiced the likelihood of first fight being on the promotion's elusive pay-per-view debut and against fellow WWE alumnus Bobby Lashley. Well, if you're going to with the obvious freak show signing, you might as well go the full mile and piece together a bout that could feasibly exist in pro wrestling.

By doing so, it acknowledges that Strikeforce is in a deep state of desperation and that they're hoping to take the stronghold of popularity Brock Lesnar has had on the MMA community and pray for the absolute best via Batista and Lashley. I think that notion is very shortsighted, though. Lesnar is a much different beast than either Lashley or Batista, both in and out of the ring. Lashley and Batista were two of the drier personalities in pro wrestling and we've seen that despite his monster heel moniker, Lesnar can still promote a fight and knows how to work a crowd.

I also think that while Lesnar is far from the first pro wrestler to try his hand at MMA, his move to the UFC was the most high profile (and I‘d hedge to bet the typical fan doesn‘t remember the pro wrestling exploits of Dan Severn or Kazushi Sakuraba). I just don't buy into the Scott Coker school of thought that if one modern era pro wrestler makes the transition into MMA that another can and wield the same results. A lot of external factors go into it, such as marketing and just general brand name. Let's be honest with ourselves: Batista and Lashley would not do anywhere near the business under the TNA banner as it would under the WWE. A lot of what sells is the name.

If Strikeforce is trying to further that name by going this route, it feels like a short-term solution at the absolute best. They've tried it recently with Herschel Walker; someone who is far more capable of generating interest on a mainstream level because of his reverence in the sports world. But several months after the fact, is Strikeforce really any better than they were before the Walker fight? The long-term investment would be to put the time, money and energy into developing prospects to create fights that people give a damn about and I'll admit that maybe that isn't Strikeforce's mindset right now. Somebody replied to last week's column unaware of who Lyle Beerbohm is and that really only proves my point that a fringe top-15 lightweight and one of the top prospects under the Strikeforce banner is someone who a lot of people haven't heard of. I blame Strikeforce and Showtime for their inability to follow through on that front.

But if they're hedging their bets on Batista/Lashley helping them turn the corner, I can't help but feel like it's just a short-term money grab that won't do a whole ton for the promotion in the long run. Even during the days of EliteXC, we were reminded time and time again that people only really cared about the Kimbo cards. No matter how bad-ass the Robbie Lawler-Scott Smith fight was that preceded Kimbo-James Thompson, nobody cared at all to tune into the Lawler-Smith rematch.

With someone like Lashley, who let's be realistic, is nowhere near capable of sniffing the drawing power than Lesnar has and even during his days with the WWE, was a ratings flop, I don't think the eyeballs are going to pour in en masse to see him. The fact that Lesnar picked up the sport really fast is a huge plus, while Lashley is still very, very green. And Batista? The June 25 edition of this column sums up my thoughts on his shelf-life in MMA.

The Ridiculous

Nada.


That'll do it. Check back on Friday for a news recap in the next installment of the 3R's of MMA.