Locked in the Guillotine MMA News 12.02.11: It's Beginning to Look Like December

Posted by Robert Winfree on 12.02.2011

News and thoughts on Phil Davis vs. Rashad Evans main eventing UFC on FOX 2, Chael Sonnen shooting down rumors of a fight with Mark Munoz and Chris Leben's suspension, plus a preview of the TUF 14 Finale and more!

Welcome back readers, hopefully your holiday went well. Or if you live outside the states I hope your week was enjoyable. The month of November is behind us, and it was quite a month in many ways, and December is here. This week saw two new TUF champions crowned, and Michael Bisping and Jason "Mayhem" Miller settled the traditional coaches grudge inside the octagon. All that and more, so scroll down and get Locked in the Guillotine once again.

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Boy did I stir up a hornets nest somehow last week. The two topics that dominated the discussion were my stance on Chael Sonnen (more on that in a bit) and apparently Cung Le's wife coming into the octagon to console him after his loss to Wanderlei Silva.

Guest 5927 started things off commenting that he believes I now hate Chael Sonnen. I do not hate Chael Sonnen, and will devote some time below to explaining my views on Sonnen.
Guest 3151 left himself a note to not read my column anymore. I am unsure why he'd leave that note in the comment section of my column seeing as it's unlikely he'll find it later if his memory should lapse.
Guest 1200 said that he didn't think I came across as hating Sonnen, though he did note my writing style takes some getting used to. That is more true than I'd like to admit in many ways, and I do apologize to those it causes confusion for.
Jeffrey Harris mentioned he didn't think he had head trauma in reference to my comment about Sonnen fans. I am unsure if Jeffrey has head trauma, though I do stand by my point about his happiest day being the unholy offspring of Dan Henderson and Joe Warren toddling into the octagon at eight months to fight Anderson Silva.
Guests 6892, 1897, and 4128 discussed Cung Le's wife consoling him after his loss. 4128 thought it inappropriate that a mans wife console him following a loss. I disagree in some ways, and seeing as Le's nose was smashed and he'd just been stopped I don't think there's too much harm there. If it becomes commonplace following any kind of loss then it might get tedious. For this time, I fail to see the harm.



OK, my thoughts on Sonnen, hopefully to avoid further confusion. I am not a fan of Chael Sonnen, that being said I do not hate him. I most certainly do not hate his fans. Who you chose to support in any sports arena is completely your choice and I have no right to legitimately dislike you based on that reason alone.

Last week I mentioned I was thankful for Chael Sonnen fans because they showed me what life would be like if I'd suffered significant head trauma at a young age. This was intended as a joke, and in no way reflects my real feelings towards those who choose to support Mr. Sonnen. To anyone who was deeply offended I apologize.

That said I will likely continue to make jokes about Sonnen or his fans, at least until the next hotly contested point comes up in the world of MMA, at which time I will move onto that. I mean no offense with these remarks. If I say something truly offensive please let me know, if you can't take a small joke every now and then I advise you to lighten up.

News

Crippler gets hobbled: Chris Leben tested positive for two pain killer medications following his loss to Mark Munoz at UFC 138. Since the fight was held in the UK, and the UK doesn't have athletic commissions the UFC does policing for violations themselves, and Leben has been suspended for one year. This is Leben's second positive drug test, though the previous one was for a steroid and this is for pain killers. The differing nature of the violations should help keep Leben around if he is serious about getting away from the drugs. I don't know if this is a serious addiction or what, but if it is my thoughts are with Leben. Addiction is no joke, and if that's the case I hope he gets the help he needs and gets himself back on track.

UFC on FX: The UFC has been finalizing the card for their debut on FX, and there are a few good looking fights. I'll certainly be watching, mostly because it's free MMA that I have access to, but it looks to be a pretty solid debut for them on a new channel.

UFC on FOX 2: Rumor had it that FOX wanted the middleweight title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen to headline the second event. I think that's a decent idea, as Chael and Anderson aren't huge ppv draws. Don't get me wrong, the PPV would have done decent numbers and all, but I'd be surprised if it got much above 500,000 buys, if that. The UFC's PPV business has been in a light decline, probably due to the number of events and the continuing struggle of the economy. UFC 139 seems to have hit right around the 270,000 mark. Granted the show wasn't really heavily promoted, but still for a clash of two legends like Shogun and Hendo and a guaranteed fireworks display between Cung Le and Wanderlei Silva, that's a little tough.

The flip side is that the second meeting between Sonnen and Silva will likely look like their first fight, which isn't compelling for a non-fan. It is incredible for those of us in the know about the history of these two men, and the dominance of Anderson Silva. Selling a guy laying on top of another guy for probably fifteen minutes or so, I'm assuming that's the length of their fight no matter who wins, is a bit tougher to sell to a new audience.

UFC on FOX 2 Main Event: News broke late Wednesday that Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis would main event the second UFC on FOX show. This is still two wrestlers, but there are some very relevant differences. Firstly Rashad Evans has much more refined striking that Chael Sonnen and isn't completely reliant on his takedowns to win fights. They remain a big part of his arsenal, but on the feet his certainly a capable fighter. This will be for a shot at Jon Jones after he beats Lyoto Machida, and Jones has something of a presence since he's been on a couple of late night talk shows. The real question is how Phil Davis, a largely untested wrestler, will handle fighting someone as seasoned and skilled as Rashad Evans. I still expect a ton of clinch work from these two, but I doubt this fight will be boring.

"I have no fight with Mark Munoz": Chael Sonnen shot down the rumor that he'd be fighting Mark Munoz on Thursday, and I can't pretend I'm disappointed. Munoz has certainly been on a tear at middleweight, but to my mind one more win over quality opposition is necessary before he fights for the number one contender spot. Sonnen expects to fight the winner of Bisping and Miller, which makes the most sense given the timing of things in the middleweight division. I favor Sonnen over either of those fighters, but with Sliva out until summer it makes the most sense if Sonnen wants another fight.



Another season of The Ultimate Fighter has come and gone, and it was a moderately entertaining season. Using bantamweights and featherweights was a good choice since the UFC is trying to get those divisions really up and running. They did the same with season 5 to help reintroduce lightweight fighters to the MMA audience. Given that many of the fighters from this season will keep jobs with the UFC for awhile it's hard not to call the season a moderate success. Hopefully there's something of a format change when the show moves to FX next year.

T.J Dillashaw vs. John Dodson: John Dodson has displayed some accurate counter striking and legitimate power for a guy who should probably be fighting at 125. Dillashaw is a team alpha male fighter, and as such is heavily reliant on his wrestling to dictate where the fight will take place. Dodson has the power to trouble Dillashaw, but I don't think he has the wrestling credentials to keep the fight standing and Dillashaw will take a decision.

Diego Brandao vs. Dennis Bermudez: Diego Brandao has emerged as the wild man of this season. He gets pissed of for very little reason and has a truly violent fighting style. Bermudez is a powerful wrestler, which is almost always a mark in his favor. Brandao is a jui-jitsu black belt, but we've yet to see how much that has transitioned into MMA. Brandao is such a balls to the wall fighter, and has power to support that style, I have a really hard time picking against him. This fight could go either way, but Brandao should probably take it.

The Count meets Mayhem: For the first time since season five's clash between BJ Penn and Jens Pulver, the coaches will fight on the finale. For all the people claiming I hate Chael Sonnen, I really don't. I do hate Michael Bisping. He was extremely fortunate his fight with Jorge Rivera was overseas, as had he pulled any of those antics stateside he'd have found himself fined and suspended. For Mayhem Miller, this is his return to the UFC after fighting in Japan and Strikeforce for the last few years. Miller is a pretty talented fighter, with grappling being his bread and butter. Much as I loathe Bisping, he had good takedown defense, and very good hip escapes from the bottom if he winds up there. Unless Miller has some secret weapons he's been developing I think Bisping out points him while moving backwards to take the decision.



yeah, like I'm gonna waste space showing Bisping in a state other than unconscious or in serious pain

I'd like to take a moment to discuss the UFC's PPV business so far for 2011. With only a few cards left on the year we can take a look back and see how things have done this year, and the reality is they aren't as rosy as past years. Thus far estimates have the overall buys for 2011 down by a substantial amount, something in the area of 2 million or so buys. There are reasons of course, the two biggest draws the UFC has, Brock Lesnar and GSP, were largely unavailable to fight. Lesnar was shelved with illness for the year, and GSP fought only once against Jake Shields before getting injured before his scheduled title defense at UFC 137 and that doubtless hurt the buy rate a fair amount. The UFC has been running more shows, and has even more planned for next year, something that will put a dent in buy rates. Former 411 wrestling writer JP Prag had an excellent series of articles talking about PPV's in the world of professional wrestling, and a small bit of that logic applies here. The primary difference is that the UFC's main source of revenue is PPV, while the same is not true of WWE who at this point make more money on television rights and fees.

The UFC suffers from a limited number of true draw fighters, as the only reliable draws they have are GSP and Brock Lesnar. Sure there are other fighters who draw in viewers, but there aren't nearly as many as you'd think. The third fight between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, despite their excellent first title fight, did only 225,000 buys. The lightweight division has long been considered the deepest and most competitive division, but since BJ Penn left 155 it has struggled to find a fighter who can really draw a good PPV number. While the next scheduled title fight between Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar will no doubt be an incredible fight and candidate for Fight of the Year, the format for that whole event seems a bit up in the air right now. Dana White mentioned the UFC Japan portion would air free on TV before a PPV event here in the states, while I'm unsure if that's still the plan, it would also mean the UFC is still trying to build a true star in that division.

MMA is a somewhat insular sport, and Dana White mentioned before and after the first UFC event on FOX that we live in a bubble world of armbars, chokes, leg kicks, and so on. There is a great amount of truth in that statement, and Ariel Helwani's video about how mainstream MMA is prior to the title fight between Velasquez and dos Santos should help illustrate that point to us.



Yes he's stopping people on the streets of California, but it's less embarrassing than if he'd stopped people on the streets of somewhere like Texas.

So readers, a question to you all: who do you pay to see fight in MMA? Most of us here will buy almost every PPV that comes along, but who do you go out of your way to see? Which fighters are guaranteed to get you to pay hard earned money to watch them fight?

With that question posed to all of you, this weeks column is pretty much done. The 411 End of the Year awards will be coming up soon, and they're always worth checking out. You've made it to the end of the article, and as such have Escaped the Guillotine, see you all next week.