Locked in the Guillotine MMA News 12.09.11: UFC 140 Eve

Posted by Robert Winfree on 12.09.2011

News and thoughts on Georges St. Pierre's injury and what it means for business, UFC on FOX 2 getting more fights announced and Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz coaching the next season of TUF, plus a preview of UFC 140 and more!

Welcome once again to my column here at 411mania, and we've had a busy week. From the season fourteen finale of The Ultimate fighter to UFC 140 right around the corner there's plenty to discuss. Of course there's also GSP's injury to look at, because it's a pretty big deal, and a look back and slightly forward for The Ultimate Fighter. Once again I've got your neck and you're Locked in the Guillotine.

Feedback

Another comment light column, which seems to be the norm for me.

Guest 4062 disagreed with my estimation of the buyrate for a rematch between Sonnen and Silva. I freely admit he's right, my initial estimation was light due to pessimism and the history of UFC PPV's so far this year. I think the rematch could crack 700,000 buys depending on the rest of the card, the time of year, and a few other variables. Thank you for correcting me sir.
Jeffrey Harris stopped by to say he's from Texas (that actually explains a lot...) and maintains that asking random people in Texas about MMA would be less embarrassing than asking people on the Hollywood walk of fame. I suppose that would depend on where in Texas mostly, but given all my prior experience with Texans I'm sticking by my statement for now.

News

This was shaping up to be a light news week, then a bomb dropped on Wednesday.

The news of Miguel Torres being released came after I submitted my column, and as such I don't have time to adequately discuss it, but it will certainly be discussed in next weeks column.

GSP Blows his ACL: This is pretty rough news, as GSP will be out for about ten months. GSP is the second biggest draw the UFC has, and is champion of one of the premier divisions in the sport. He sprained his MCL which caused him to reschedule his title fight with Carlos Condit, and apparently now has blown his ACL. This is bad news for the business side of the UFC, and for fans of GSP.

Condit vs. Diaz for Interim belt: Honestly I think the UFC gives out these interim championships just so they can promote fighters as former champions. Condit vs. Diaz is a very interesting fight, and the winner will get the next shot at GSP when he's healthy. As for the fight itself, I have a really tough time picking against Carlos Condit here, he's just so diverse in his offense that I think he gives Diaz problems.

UFC on FOX2 gets fleshed out: The UFC announced more fights for their second outing on network television this week, and the card looks pretty decent. I'm still pretty m'eh over Sonnen and Munoz, but you can't have everything your way. The only thing about the newly announced fights that stands out is that Eddie Wineland is all but gone from the UFC. Wineland will be fighting Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson, and with the loss will have dropped his last three fights and will likely be shown the door.

TUF Finale ratings: The latest season finale of TUF drew a pretty good number apparently, most likely due to everyone and their dog wanting Michael Bisping to suffer serious injury and the popularity of Miller from his other entertainment endeavors. A good way to end the last season on Spike, and I'll be waiting to see what the UFC plans on doing when the show moves to FX because it could use some freshening up.

Cruz and Faber coaching: The UFC announced that the first season of TUF to air on FX will feature Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber as the coaches building up to their title bout. A pretty good choice, especially since both men are working on their drawing power in the UFC. More information as it becomes available of course, but I think this was a pretty smart move.

Bisping to fight Maia: It was announced that Michael Bisping, fresh off his win of Jason Miller, will fight Demian Maia on the second UFC on FOX card. Maia is in an odd place, in that his standup still isn't great, but people have kind of figured him out on the ground. The key to surviving on the ground with Maia is to minimize movement once in a stable position. Bisping should pillow fists his way to another decision here.

Strikeforce Lives!: Dana White has said numerous times that the future of the Strikeforce brand lay in the hands of Showtime. It seems Showtime has decided to keep Strikeforce around for a bit. It's still assumed that eventually Strikeforce will be absorbed into the UFC, but for now the brand remains alive. Though something tells me it's living in a hospice.



Well we had the finale of the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter, and it wasn't an awful night of fights all things considered.

Prelims

Caraway opens up the night: Bryan Caraway came out and did a good job of taking out Dustin Neace. Caraway was pretty dominant in this fight, and should be on some future prelims.

Siler is pretty slick: Steven Siler showed some great use of the Thai clinch, and a pretty good chin. Siler's win was pretty good here, and with some refining of his striking he could be somewhat relevant in the division.

A Redneck goes down: Roland Delorme showed some good diversity in his fight with Josh Ferguson, he had a triangle locked in for a good part of the first round, and as soon as he got the back in round three it was all over. His striking could use some work, but he could be a solid addition to the division. As for Ferguson, when the UFC introduces flyweights he'll probably get invited back to flesh out that division.

Prince Albert reigns: John Albert came out and ran through Dustin Pague in the first round. He caught him with a solid punch and finished him off with good ground and pound. Not sure how far John will go, but this was a very good introduction for him.

Brimage gets the win-age: Marcus Brimage and Stephan Bass had a fun fight for three rounds. It was primarily a standup battle, and while it wasn't incredibly technical it was fun to watch. Bass seemed befuddled for the first two rounds before coming alive in the third and doing everything in his power to get the win. Both guys will probably get another fight in the UFC, and this was a fun way to end the prelims.

Main Card

Bedford Beatdown: Wow. Johnny Bedford put an absolute beating on Louis Gaudinot for two and a half rounds before the ref finally stopped the fight. Bedord is certainly no joke, even though Gaudinot is a natural flyweight as opposed to Bedord, who is a good sized bantamweight. Great win for Bedford, and easily the most lopsided fight of the night no matter what Dana White said.

Tony Ferguson rolls on: Tony Ferguson and Yves Edwards had a fun back and forth stand up fight. Nothing to really get excited about, but it was certainly fun and a good win for Ferguson over a true veteran of the sport.

The Magician pulls one out: For some reason TJ Dillashaw decided it was a good idea to stand and trade with John Dodson. It certainly was not. Dodson is more suited to fighting at 125lbs, but hammered out Dillashaw in under one round. Dodson has serious power in his hands, and very crisp technique and could make a few waves at 135 before the UFC introduces 125. For Dillashaw, standing with Dodson for that long was a huge mistake tactically, though he'll probably get another fight.

Brandao and Bermudez go all out: Dennis Bermudez and Diego Brandao went out and had a barn burner of a round. This fight swung wildly in terms of who was looking like they would win, and when Bermudez caught Brandao with a good right I thought it was over. Bermudez followed up, but left an arm behind and in the blink of an eye Brandao grabbed it and locked on a very tight armbar to get the win. Great fight, and both guys will likely be back.

The Count handles Mayhem: Well that was boring and anticlimactic. Seriously, Miller gassed pretty hard, but Bisping didn't look great. Rumor was that the winner here would fight Chael Sonnen for a title shot, but with the announcement of Sonnen and Munoz on FOX 2, that's unlikely to happen. Too bad, because I would certainly have cheered for Sonnen over Bisping.


It goes down Tomorrow


UFC 140

UFC 140 goes down on Saturday, and is a pretty stacked card. The UFC seemed intent on putting on a big card for their return to Toronto after their last card there. The main event will be Jon Jones second title defense and his fourth fight this year as he takes on former champion Lyoto Machida. It should be a very interesting fight, so lets take a look at the card and how I think things will go down.

The Machine fights the Korean Zombie: That could be the title of a cheap horror movie. Mark Hominick returns to the octagon for the first time since Jose Aldo elbowed a growth onto the side of Hominicks head to face the Korean Zombie Chan Sung-Jung. Chan is coming off of his twister submission victory over Leonard Garcia, but I don't think he has much of a chance here. Mark Hominick might be the most technically proficient striker in the featherweight division, and Chan's style of fighting plays right into that. If Chan can get some takedowns he's shown that he has a good ground game, but I just don't think he can absorb the volume of accurate strikes Mark Hominick will be throwing at him.

Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersol: Meh. That really sums up my feelings about this fight. Both guys are wrestlers, so we'll be treated to clinching and extremely sloppy striking. As to the winner, Patrick strikes me as less of a douche, so I'll go with him.

Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: This is a very interesting fight. Little Nog seems to have struggled against wrestlers like Ryan Bader and Phil Davis, though in the Davis fight his takedown defense was vastly improved and I thought he took the first round. Tito Ortiz is not Ryan Bader or Phil Davis though. In his prime Tito had very explosive takedowns, but Tito is well past his prime now. He'll still be looking to take the fight to the ground, but if Nog's double leg takedown defense is on par with what it was when he fought Davis I doubt Tito will have much success. On the feet Nogueira is technically superior to Tito, but punching Tito in the head doesn't seem to stop him unless your Chuck Liddell, and Rogerio would do well to attack the body since Tito seems soft there. Tito needs to get this fight to the ground and drop elbows on Nogueira, but I just have a hard time seeing it going that way. I think Lil' Nog takes this one.

Frank Mir vs. Antonion Rodrigo Nogueira: The rematch we're all questioning the need for. Apparently Big Nog has been lobbying for this fight since the first fight, and claimed that his performance was affected by staph and the lingering injuries he's since had dealt with. Nogueira looked very good in his fight against Brendan Schaub, and it seems the surgeries on his hips and knee have helped tremendously. I don't think this fight hits the ground, as both men are highly accomplished submission artists and the margin for error on the ground is incredibly small. Frank Mir will look to use range and tag Nogueira on the feet in similar fashion to their first fight. Nogueira will need head movement to counter those attempts, and hopefully he's drilled throwing the straight right hand against the southpaw Mir. I'm going with Nog here though, I think he gets the fight right this time, and with improved movement will be able to take Mir.

Bones and The Dragon: Another possible cheap movie title. This is an odd fight, because Machida hasn't really earned this title shot. Had the judges got the decision right in his fight with Rampage you could say he's earned it, but officially he's 1-2 in his last three fights in one of the deepest divisions in the UFC. I think the UFC was just bound and determined to have a light heavyweight title fight in Toronto and with Rashad still healing Machida was the best option. This is a fight people think Bones will take, but how seems to be the question. Machida's biggest advantage has always been his speed, footwork, and ability to avoid damage. I think he's going to have trouble against Jones, because Jon Jones has a freaky reach of 84.5 inches, and that's just his arms. Machida also hasn't fought a wrestler as accomplished in the octagon as Jones. Machida will have to get inside of Jones' reach to score with kicks and punches, but in doing so he leaves himself vulnerable to the clinch and takedowns. Machida's sumo background actually has paid dividends in the UFC as he has good takedown defense and surprisingly effective takedowns. Sadly that wont help him against Jon Jones. Jon Jones has been on his back once in his UFC career, when he jumped guard to get a triangle choke against Rampage at the end of the second round of their fight.

I'm a Machida fan, but I really don't see how he wins this fight. Bones will be prepared for Machida's movement, and his reach advantage will provide him with opportunities to strike from further away than Machida is used to. Jon Jones is just a fighter who right now you can't intelligently pick against.



Another season of The Ultimate Fighter has come and gone, and seeing as I couldn't come up with anything better to write about, I'm taking a suggestion Stewart Lange made me and will be looking back at some of the coaches of TUF, as well as fighters who I'd like to see coach in the future.



It's become something of a consensus among MMA fans that the two worst coaches in the history of TUF are Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Ken Shamrock. The order is somewhat debatable, but personally I think Rampage was a worse coach than Shamrock. That said, really it doesn't matter who you say is worse, but guys pretty much sucked. That said, looking back on the history of the show, there are a few other coaches who were pretty bad.

BJ Penn was on track to being an awful coach until Dana White pulled him aside and told him he didn't want to become the Ken Shamrock of that season. That was surprising, given the general level of respect Penn has, but Jens Pulver came off as more involved with his fighters and more interested in helping them improve.

Michael Bisping surprised no one in his two coaching stints, he genuinely seems more interested in himself than the fighters. Though perhaps that's just the editing coming into play.

Frank Mir actually surprised me a bit in how generally aloof he was to his fighters. Though that also was highlighted because of the efforts Big Nog went to to make his team feel like a family.

Matt Hughes really came off as kind of a dick during his coaching stints. He was very critical of Rashad Evans during season 2, during his guest coaching on season 4 he displayed arrogance, and I'll personally never forget him sending bibles home with his fighters in season six. His time on the show really soured me on him as he came across as very self-involved.

Josh Koscheck seemed more interested in getting under GSP's skin than helping his fighters. The only guy on his team who had a modicum of success was Nam Phan, and he was mostly riding on his natural talent and experience.

Some coaches turned out to be surprisingly good.

Forest Griffin springs instantly to mind. He was involved with his fighters and did his best to make them successful.

Brock Lesnar came off surprisingly well, despite some hiccups early as he adjusted to the format, but he seemed like he wanted to help his fighters.

Junior dos Santos came across as quite possibly the nicest guy on the planet. Even when telling off his wrestling coach, you couldn't help but smile. He'll still kill you inside the cage, but the exposure showed what a genuinely caring guy Junior is, and I personally have pulled for him in every fight he's been in since.

While season one is generally regarded as the best in terms of talent, I think season five is right behind it. There were some talented fighters that the UFC brought in to help kick-start the lightweight division, and it's telling that six of the fighters from that season remain with the UFC. This last season was designed much the same way, introducing fighters to newer weight classes, so I expect we'll see a few fighters from this season sticking around for a bit in the UFC.

As mentioned above, Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber will be coaching the fifteenth season, and I get the impression Faber is going to come across as a self-entitled jerk. It will also be the first season of TUF on FX, and hopefully there will be a format shake up. It's only natural, I mean after fourteen seasons the show is getting a little stale. The only season that went a slightly different direction was season four, and "The Comeback" is looked on with more derision than it deserves. Though I'm personally unsure of what they'd do to change things up, there's no denying something needs to change.

And finally I figured I'd list some of the fighters I'd like to see coach the show. Ever list of things TUF related needs that right?

Chael Sonnen really should coach a season. I'm no fan of Sonnen, and some of the things he's said have made my ears want to vomit. That said, you can't tell me a shameless self-promoter like Sonnen wouldn't love getting that much camera time. The biggest downside is that he'd only do it if he was coaching against Anderson Silva, and Silva has some aversion to doing the show apparently.

Jon Jones at some point in 2012 should coach. I'm assuming he beats both Machida and Evans, then he could coach a season setting up his next title defense. Jones seems very interested in helping move MMA to the next level, and TUF is kind of a natural platform for that. Plus it will be very telling about his personality, which seems to be a point of contention among MMA fans.

Josh Barnett should do the show. He's one of the best heavyweight's in the world, and loves to entertain when talking. Plus it would introduce him to UFC fans who may not be as familiar with his talents. I know he's not officially with the UFC right now, but even if Strikeforce sticks around he'll probably switch over to the UFC in the future.

Wanderlei Silva would probably come off much the way Junior dos Santos did. That said I would still love to see him coaching on the show. He's an absolute legend of the sport, and who knows what kind of wackiness would ensue from his broken English?

So how about you guys, any thoughts about The Ultimate Fighter swirling around since the end of this season? Feel free to comment below, as always. Until next time you've once again Escaped the Guillotine.