The Juggernaut MMA News Report 12.29.11: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview - Part II

Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 12.29.2011

Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem go one-on-one tomorrow at UFC 141! 411's Jonathan Solomon breaks down who will win and why! Plus, the five biggest MMA moments in 2012, news and thoughts on Miguel Torres re-signing with the UFC, Brendan Schaub's next fight and more!

2012 is just over 48 hours away and before we can say goodbye to this year, we get to catch the last MMA action of the year. In America, it's UFC 141 with a fun card without even talking about the gigantic main event. With the final Juggernaut MMA News Report of 2011, I'll run down the top five fights on the show, concluding my look at the Brock Lesnar - Alistair Overeem fight which I began last week.

Who should be considered the favorite and how will the fight end? I'm about to answer your questions.




LESNAR VS. OVEREEM PREVIEW
PART II

Much like the UFC 116 heavyweight battle between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, tomorrow night's UFC 141 main event will not be a match-up between a behemoth of a man and an opponent significantly smaller (Brock-Couture, Brock-Mir, Overeem-Werdum). Both Alistair Overeem and Lesnar are well over six-feet tall and above the 250-pound weight mark. It will be one of those fights where two bulls lock horns and at some point, one of them will drop and succumb to their opponent. But who?

The blood and guts of the matter is simple. Lesnar must get Overeem on the ground at all costs. We will find out early in the first round how successful the former UFC champion may be because you can guarantee he does not want to spend too long standing with the reigning K-1 World Grand Prix champion. However, it won't be so simple as taking Overeem down and working from there. The former Strikeforce and Dream champion has displayed an underrated ability to defend takedowns but you can always say he has not fought anyone like Lesnar in a long time, if ever.

If Brock is to have success with his shots, he will need to use his striking to transition to the ground. If he gets rocked by a strike and goes instinctually for a takedown, he will fail. He must be smart about it, perhaps throw a few strikes and when Overeem is defending against them or backing up, shoot in. Perhaps Lesnar can use faints to set up his shots and put Holland's greatest MMA fighter on his back. If he can do that, the advantages are immense for the 2000 NCAA national wrestling champion. The one spot you do not want to be in against Lesnar is on the ground with him on top dropping punches in bunches.

This is the only way I foresee Brock Lesnar being named winning tomorrow night. Stand up for as long as it takes to set up a takedown and go to work in trying to finish the fight as soon as possible.

The key for Overeem will be that takedown defense. If he can avoid being slammed to his back, you will see his confidence shoot to the sky as he would then be able to settle in and unleash the strikes that have made him one of the most feared fighters in the world. Even if Lesnar shoots in, Overeem may be able to throw a vicious knee and end the fight then and there. Along with that scenario, Lesnar's worst case scenario is getting caught in a guillotine, trying to bring the fight to the ground. In either of these situations, Lesnar's odds of surviving and regaining his composure are not strong.

I don't like Lesnar's chances in this fight because he has to rely so heavily on his wrestling. If it is not an option after 90 seconds of fighting, what is stopping Overeem from being able to light him up just like Cain Velasquez did over a year ago?

With all that, the two most surprising possibilities are as follows. Brock Lesnar's shots fail and is forced to stand and bang fairly early in the fight. Overeem eats a couple punches, does not react according to expectations and is knocked out. "CAN YOU SEE HIM NOW?!!@!~" For Alistair, perhaps he is overwhelmed by Lesnar's power early and decides to take his chances on the ground. It's THE REEM who initiates the ground game, getting Lesnar to the ground where he is able to lock on a submission and force him to tap for the second time in his career. If either of these happenings transpire, I will eat some internet crow in this space next week.




DONALD CERRONE VS. NATE DIAZ

As you know by now, this is a fight we all expect to be considered among the best in recent memory (and there have been some classics of late). Both lightweights are rangy fighters who fight with as much anger as they do skill. Cerrone was a former pro kickboxer who has developed his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to dangerous levels in combination with his striking and wrestling. Diaz is a grappler and boxer much akin to his older brother Nick. So how will this fight shake out?

Nate loves walking forward and throwing a high volume of punches, almost allowing his opponents to dictate whether it's on the ground or stays standing. He has historically struggled with strong wrestlers (losses to Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray Maynard at lightweight) but when he is not overpowered, he is capable of finishing the fight with his submission game. Since coming to the UFC in 2007, he has only knocked out Rory Markham which tells you he is not the type of fighter who can finish a fight with one punch standing. He uses that striking to set up his grappling where he is especially tough.

So, can Cerrone deal with a three-inch reach disadvantage? He'll need to use his footwork to open up clean angles and make Diaz pay for wanting to stand and bang. Cerrone's combinations of kicks, knees and punches may be too much for Diaz to handle. Plus, if Cerrone's wrestling has improved like he says, we may even see him try and bring the Stockton, California native down to the ground. I'm not sure that would be the smartest decision since Diaz is most comfortable fighting off his back with as active a guard as any other UFC lightweight.

Cerrone will need keep the movement at a high level so as he doesn't eat a ton of punches and get swept up in a mix that leads to a situation where Diaz can sweep him to the ground.

I'm not so sure Cowboy Cerrone will maintain his gameplan, giving Diaz an opening to win on points. However, with the folks over at Greg Jackson behind him, do not be shocked if Cerrone employs a game plan where he emphasizes takedowns more than he routinely does. If they anticipate being unable to finish Diaz (which I doubt, but hypothetically), it's all about winning on the scorecards and you know the judges love them some takedowns.

Otherwise, Diaz can use his reach with the patented "pitter patter" strikes that in volume bring about more damage than you may expect. Should he end up on his back, it's not the end of the world as he can utilize that guard to keep Cerrone's offense at bay.

This is a match-up that can go either way and with both men known for letting everything they have go in the cage, it will definitely be a surprise if it does not end up being a fight we're all raving about.




JON FITCH VS. JOHNY HENDRICKS

The return of Jon Fitch to the octagon may not be met with much fanfare, but the fact remains he has been the second best welterweight in MMA for years. While he did fight B.J. Penn to a draw in February, no one not named Georges in the UFC has been able to solve his riddle. Can the former stud out of Oklahoma State, Johny Hendricks be that man?

I'm not sold. Fitch is coming off shoulder surgery but he is a technical striker with suffocating wrestling abilities on the ground. While Hendricks was a much talked about collegiate wrestler, it has not transferred as expected into MMA. I still recall Rick Story being able to render his wrestling powerless in their fight one year ago. Fitch is a much better MMA wrestler than Story so why should we believe Hendricks can have success tomorrow?

You would expect Hendricks can have some success standing because he's a bit wild with his hands and he does have the ability to knock a fighter out. Since he debuted in WEC two years ago, he has four wins by TKO including against Amir Sadollah and Charlie Brenneman. The problem with this, however, is the fact that Fitch is not the type of fighter who gets caught. Some say he's "safe," others call him "boring," but I'll rest on "good."

Fitch does not get hurt in the striking game and if there is any concerns during a fight, he resorts back to his wrestling and takes back control. Unless Hendricks' wrestling in the octagon has improved since we last saw him, there's no reason to believe Fitch will fair to that end.




Remember to check out the 411 MMA Roundtable Preview's for both UFC 141 and the Dream New Year's Eve show this weekend!

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PREDICTING 5 OF THE BIGGEST MOMENTS OF 2012

Earlier this week, you were able to read some bold predictions from the staff for next year. These are not necessarily meant to be similar although I guess you could look at them in such a light. Instead, below are five of what I will consider to be the biggest moments in MMA in 2012. Some are definitive statements while others are more geared towards a particular story or setting. Feel free to note some of your own in the comments section below!


1. Chael Sonnen challenges Anderson Silva in Brazil. (a/k/a the interwebz explodes)

- It certainly seems like the long awaited rematch between middleweight champion Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen is either this close to actually happening or so unlikely that we may as well stop from talking about about it. I guess it depends on whether your personality is geared more towards optimism or pessimism…or if you're a big Mark Munoz fan. In any event, if Sonnen can defeat Munoz on Fox in 30 days, the only potential road block will be whether Anderson Silva wants to sign on the dotted line.

Depending on who you want to believe, there is a chance Silva's next title defense will take place in his home country, Brazil. If Sonnen is the challenger and the UFC is prepared to shell out the necessary money on extra security, the entire week of the fight would be intriguing (without even mentioning the fight itself). You know the unlikelihood of Sonnen defeating Silva in Brazil would be absolutely insane and regardless of the outcome, the crowd would make for one of the hottest MMA events of all-time. So, from this fan's perspective, you have to be rooting for Sonnen on Fox. It's nothing against Munoz, but Silva/Sonnen 2 is so much more intriguing and could create another unforgettable moment just like their first clash last summer.

If for nothing else, I just want to see Chael Sonnen make that walk from the dressing room through the sea of Brazilians into the octagon.

2. Urijah Faber fights for his last opportunity to be the best against Dominick Cruz.

- Urijah Faber cannot drop down to flyweight. Theoretically, he could return to featherweight after taking over a year off from the division, but he won't be in Jose Aldo's (or Chad Mendes') point of view as far as contenders go. With all that said, when Faber steps inside the octagon for his third fight (all-time) with Dominick Cruz, he will do so with more riding on the outcome than any other time. Not just relevancy, but the future of his career. Should Faber lose the rubber match, while he may physically be able to fight at a high level for a few more years, he'll become the bantamweight version of Tito Ortiz. He won't be 33-years old until next May but the clock is ticking on overdrive right now. Certainly, every #1 contender needs to beat the champion to open up a path to earning more money, new sponsors and fresh opportunities, but Urijah Faber really needs to be the man to solve the riddle that is Dominick Cruz.

For two years, Faber was the face of WEC and this is his opportunity to be the face of the lighter weight classes in the UFC for the first time. If it passes him by, so will his days as a major contender in MMA.

3. Jon Jones finally must stare Rashad Evans down and fight.

- Along with Georges St. Pierre in 2011, this light heavyweight fight has been scrapped on at least two occasions due to injuries and scheduling conflicts. Rashad Evans will fight Phil Davis on the Fox card next month and the big Penn State wrestler is the only thing (this time) standing in his way of securing another UFC title shot. If he can win in January, Evans will cut a promo on live national television proclaiming the end of the Jon Jones era and everyone will either laugh, shake their head or pass it off because history says fate will not allow this fight to happen.

Assuming Rashad wins and can somehow discover a multiple month long stretch of health, this is the one serious grudge match that has never felt contrived. Sure, Chael Sonnen and Anderson Silva can't stand each other. However, its genesis was more the fact that Sonnen realized the greasy wheel gets the oil and by talking (and of course, winning), he could get a championship fight and more money. In this situation, Rashad Evans felt slighted by folks over at Greg Jackson's camp and by Jon Jones and he feels the "kid" is in way over his head. Meanwhile, Jones looks at Evans, not so much with hatred, but almost the way the little brother may look at his big brother who's jealous (The "quit being a punk" type of attitude).

Certainly, some of you may not think very highly of Jon Jones, feeling he can portray the nice guy personality while really being a pompous overachiever. Should this fight actually happen in 2012, it's one of those match-ups where the staredowns may actually be more entertaining than the fight itself. However, at least we'll finally be able to see an end to the barbs back and forth between "no chin" Rashad and "soft" Jones. Unless the fight ends in a double knockout (see Maynard vs. Emerson), then we can go through a whole new year of their bickering).

4. Fedor Emelianenko debuts in the UFC against Brock Lesnar.

- Yes, I know. This is my silly thought process. Brock loses to Alistair Overeem tomorrow night and returns in 2012 with a win over whomever (Frank Mir for example). Meanwhile, Fedor Emelianenko defeats Satoshi Ishii on Saturday and picks up a third win in a row against ______ (not really important). By then, M-1 Global will have gotten Fedor back up on his fighting feet and will go to Zuffa with their hands open. There is no big money left in Japan or Europe and the only legitimate option in America is the UFC (who will run even more shows in 2012, needing more worthwhile main events).

This may overestimate the willingness of M-1 and the UFC to reach a deal or the ability of the Russians to compromise. In the end, I am counting heavily on the realization that they need to cash in on the biggest opportunity relating to Fedor and the last big one, at that.

It makes WAAAAAAY too much sense for Fedor not to be in the UFC next year.

5. Daniel Cormier is officially crowned the best heavyweight in all of MMA.

- 2011 has been the beginning of his emergence as a top 10 heavyweight. 2012 will see the rest of his growth come to fruition as he becomes the best heavyweight in Strikeforce, makes the jump to the UFC and challenges for the heavyweight championship.

I know a lot has to happen, first with his hand properly healing so he can fight by the planned March date against Josh Barnett. It's a stiff test because of Barnett's experience as a fighter and abilities but Cormier is tailor made to beat him. Barnett has promised he will be able to take down the Olympic wrestler and I will bet on Cormier in that test of wills. If he overcomes the former babyfaced assassin, Cormier will fight once more in Strikeforce before jumping over to the UFC.

Really, the only significant question that stands out right now is whether Cormier will stick at heavyweight at that point or seriously ponder a drop to light heavyweight so he does not come across the path of his training partner, Cain Velasquez. However, the idea of him being able to drop to 205-pounds is something I don't foresee happening so with a ton of momentum, he will get a crack at either Junior dos Santos or Alistair Overeem, whichever is champion. Plus, with his improved striking and wrestling skills, I would not be surprised if Cormier is a betting favorite by this time next year in either potential clash.

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JUGGERNAUT NEWS BRIEFS

- According to Dana White, the UFC will now recognize Duane Ludwig's knockout of Jonathan Goulet as the fastest in company history at four seconds. However, the Nevada State Athletic Commission will not officially do the same. Because they lack the authority to change it, they still consider Ludwig's knockout to be 11-seconds.

- The Dream New Year's Eve MMA/Pro Wrestling/Kickboxing show will air live on HDNet Friday night at 1 AM eastern and is slotted for 9 hours. The MMA fights on the card will feature the bantamweight tournament semifinals and final, Shinya Aoki defending the 155-pound title against Satoru Kitaoka, Hiroyuki Takaya defending the 145-pound title against Takeshi Inoue and in the main event, Fedor Emelianenko vs. Satoshi Ishii. There are more fights plus four pro wrestling matches (featuring Kazushi Sakuraba, Peter Aerts, Tim Sylvia, Kazuyuki Fujita, Josh Barnett and others), two kickboxing matches and a mixed-rules bout.

- Brendan Schaub will fight Ben Rothwell at UFC 145 this March in Montreal.

- Miguel Torres has returned to the UFC after showing remorse over an insensitive tweet, making light of rape earlier this month. According to Dana White, Torres also decided to donate money to local rape prevention/treatment centers around the Chicago area.

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JUGGERNAUT VIDEO OF THE WEEK

Over 24 hours to go before UFC 141, here is a look back at some of Overeem's vicious knockouts in both MMA and K-1. Will Brock be added to the list?




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HAVE A HAPPY & HEALTHY NEW YEAR!


Picture courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com