Locked in the Guillotine MMA News 12.30.11: This Edition Goes Deep

Posted by Robert Winfree on 12.30.2011

News and thoughts on Miguel Torres' return to the UFC after his Twitter gaffe, Jason Miller apologizing for his loss to Michael Bisping and more, plus a breakdown of the huge main event of UFC 141 between Lesnar and Overeem!

Welcome readers, though I'm sure more of you are interested in watching UFC 141 than reading my column. Thank you for stopping by though, it's much appreciated. This week I'm introducing a new feature to the column, you'll find it further down called In Depth, where I go to a ridiculous amount of work breaking down one fight. I don't think it will be a regular feature, but if a fight catches my interest, or yours, I will take a somewhat exhaustive look at it. Scroll down to find out, and you're Locked in the Guillotine again.

Feedback

A few comments last week, so lets dive into things here.
Fact was the first one up, stating that more people like Jon Jones than like Chael Sonnen. I wonder if he's related to Truth who stopped by a couple of weeks ago?
TimE was on hand again, and I thank you for your constant reading of my work, pointing out that people like hating someone who's the best. That's true, there is usually a significant amount of backlash against a team or individual who is clearly the best. I don't think people disliked Brock Lesnar because he was the champ so much as his personality takes a bit of getting used to.
Wylun, a legend of the MMA comments section, closed us out with a few points. I agree that there are teams or people who you just aren't going to root for, and for him it's Jon Jones. Fair enough good sir. He agreed with my Christmas gift for Michael Bisping, then pointed out that Frankie Edgar wont break 400,000 buys because he's from New Jersey. A somewhat interesting point, does his place of residence have any effect on any of you buying PPV's that he headlines? Lastly he mentioned that he believes Brock Lesnar will be UFC heavyweight champion in 2012. That's a tough one, but it isn't the most illogical claim in the world.

News

Mayhem apologizes: Jason Miller took to his website and apologized for his poor performance against Michael Bisping and promised he would use the experience to better himself. It's refreshing to see a fighter take this stance, he offered no excuse and simply promised to be back and better than before. Yeah, it was a slow news week again.

Evan Dunham gets Nick Lentz: This is somewhat unfortunate news, as Dunham was supposed to face the Brit Paul Sass. I was looking forward to that fight, Sass is a fairly one dimensional fighter, but his submissions are insane. Against Nick Lentz, Dunahm still should get the win. Again, it was a slow news week.

Torres returns: After the UFC 141 press conference Dana White announced that the UFC had resigned Miguel Torres. Torres was released following some incredibly stupid and insensitive comments made on twitter. After his release Torres has donated time and money to rape crisis centers as well as undergone some sensitivity training. If Torres has learned from the experience and wont be saying or typing stupid things anymore than good for him. As for him being back with the UFC, I'm kinda m'eh about it given the types of fights he's been having.


UFC 141

The final UFC card of the year takes place on Friday, and we've got a dandy here to close out 2011. For my undercard picks check out the roundtable, as usual. This card looks like it will be fun, so let's get down to it.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Danny Castillo: Njokuani is a very good striker, he has good punches, kicks, and changes up his attacks nicely. Castillo is a wizard on the mat, so there's little doubt what the respective gameplans are here. This really comes down to if Njokuani can keep Castillo at bay with strikes long enough to catch him. I don't think he will, so my money goes on Castillo probably in the first.

Ross Pearson vs. Junior Assuncao: Assuncao was in an abomination of a fight against Eddie Yagin at UFC 135. On a fight card that included the Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton, I thought Assuncao put on the most boring fight. Think about that for a moment or two. This is Pearson's featherweight debut, and really it's designed to be a big introduction to the weight class. The bottom line is this is his fight to lose, and based on what I've seen of Assuncao, I don't think Perason will lose here.

Nam Phan vs. Jimy Hettes: Hettes is a real submission specialist, all nine of his wins have come via submission, and he's never been beyond the second round. While he's definitely a star on the rise, Nam Phan is no joke. His striking is very technical, his cardio is excellent, and he's quite experienced. This is a big step up in competition for Hettes, and I think this will be a learning experience for him despite losing.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: I like Matyushenko, not a huge fan or anything, but the guy always comes to fight. He doesn't lose very often, and for some reason gets constantly over looked. That said, Gustafsson is the best prospect at 205 not named Phil Davis. His only loss is to Mr. Wonderful and he's looked much improved since then, and beat Matt Hamill into retirement in his last outing. This will be a good test for Gustafsson, but with his reach advantage and great talent I think he takes it. Should be a very good fight though.

Jon Fitch vs. Johnny Hendricks: Jon Fitch is the Rodney Dangerfield of the welterweight division, he can't get any respect. Hendricks is a good fighter, no doubt about it, but I think he's in over his head against Fitch. Hendricks' only shot is a one punch KO, but if the beating that Fitch took from GSP didn't stop him I doubt Hendricks will. The more relevant question is if Fitch can finish Hendricks. Fitch has lost just once in his UFC career, to GSP. For all that, he hasn't finished a fight since 2007. The reality is that with two finishes in his next two fights, Fitch could get a title shot. I just think Fitch beats anyone in the UFC who isn't Georges St. Pierre, and that includes Johnny Hendricks.

Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz: I actually like Nate Diaz, he seems much more professional than his brother and carried himself very well after his last fight. That said, I'm a pretty big fan of Cerrone and he should win here. This is Diaz's second fight back at 155, and I think he's just in over his head. Cerrone has better striking and a much more diverse attack, his wrestling is better, and he's quite a skilled submission fighter. In a straight jui-jitsu match Diaz might have the edge, but this isn't straight jui-jitsu. Cerrone caps off a big year by beating the younger Diaz brother here.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: Scroll down further, I'm going deep with this one.

I figured the colossal heavyweight clash that's upon us was a good time to debut a new feature for the column, one where I take an incredibly detailed look at the fighters and the fight in general. I wont do this for every main event, but for ones that really catch my eye I will. I'll also take requests in this area, if a fight is coming up and enough of you ask I'll be happy to break out the magnifying glass and take a really close look. So, in the debut of the new In depth feature we're looking at Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem. Take a deep breath boys and girls because...





This is the biggest heavyweight fight since Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez fought for the title on FOX. UFC President Dana White has said the winner of this fight gets the next title shot, though personally I wouldn't relish the thought of getting into a cage with Cigano. Physically this will be one of, if not the, biggest fight in a long time if not ever. This is the long awaited UFC debut for "The Demolition Man" Alistair Overeem, and we'll be looking at him first.



Overeem is the best striker in the heavyweight division. That isn't hyperbole, while dos Santos may have the best boxing in the division, in terms of all around strikes it goes to Overeem. His most potent weapons are his knees, which have been used to knock his opponents silly through his entire fighting career. He is equally effective going to the body or the head with them, and Brock needs to avoid being hit with one of them. Overeem likes clinch work, because it allows him to use his knees. He was very effective in the clinch against Fabricio Werdum, rocking him and controlling him very effectively from that position. Overeems best chance to win this fight is on the feet, it is hands down his bread and butter and he will have a substantial advantage over Brock Lesnar as long as the fight remains vertical. In terms of submissions, much has been made by the UFC that Overeem has more wins by submission than by T/KO. While true, it is a somewhat misleading fact. Two of Overeems submissions have been due to strikes, which requires no technical submission skills. Of the other seventeen, ten were in smaller shows and several were in Holland where grappling isn't widely known. So that brings us to seven to seriously consider. Within those that could be considered moderately worthy competition that Alistair has submitted are Vitor Belfort back in 2005 via guillotine, Mark Hunt via key-lock, Gary Goodridge via kimura, and James Thompson via standing guillotine. None of those fighters are really on Alistair's level, but that's the best he's submitted. Most of his submission wins have come via guillotine, which is extremely telling because the guillotine is a muscle move. That isn't to discount the technique involved, or Alistair's technique which is pretty good, but it remains a strong mans move. Alistair is stronger than most of the competition he's faced, and has been able to grab their neck and squeeze until they give up.

Against a higher level of competition, let alone someone as strong as Brock, that wont work. Alistair will have to catch Brock's neck during a takedown and pull full guard to get the required leverage and control. A standing guillotine, which is what Alistair uses more than the traditional version, will only give Brock an opportunity to take him down. That will be the only viable submission for Alistair to use, but I don't think he'll get Brock with it. If Alistair wins this fight, it's on the feet where his technical superiority overwhelms Lesnar, not on the mat. Alistair needs to be standing and using a muy thai clinch to attack Brock with knees. In a more greco-roman clinch he shouldn't knee the body, as Brock could easily throw the Dutchman off balance and end up on top of him.



Brock Lesnar is a freak of nature. The way he is able to move for a man of his size is incredible, as is the pace at which he improves. If you want proof look at the punch he dropped Mir with in their first fight as opposed to the one he broke Heath Herring's orbital bone with. The first one was all arm, very little technique. The second was much better, he turned his body with the punch, got maximum extension and did significantly more damage with it. From one fight to another he improved a great deal, and that would be the story if Brock's MMA career. With every fight you can find noticeable improvements in his fighting game. His striking has improved by leaps and bounds, his technique in the Velasquez fight was good, he simply didn't have the head movement to counter Cain. On the ground he has improved as well, compare his first and second fights with Frank Mir. Not just the way he gave Mir the kneebar, but the way he moved on the ground had improved, as had his technique. In the first fight he was content to try and donkey kong Mir's head. In the second he used technique to shut down Mir's possible offense. He was able to achieve two very good positions, one where he had one arm around Mir's neck and turned him so he had only one arm to try and defend himself with. The other was a simple technique, but once he got wrist control on one of Mir's arms he locked it down again leaving Mir with just one arm to defend himself from the barrage of punches. Against Shane Carwin he punched the body to loosen his half guard and pass to mount. When locking up the fight ending side choke he passed to side control carefully, not giving Carwin a chance to regain half guard and block the choke. If Brock has continued to progress at the level he has been I don't like Alistair's chances.

The big knock on Lesnar seems to be his chin, which is a big misconception. Brock was punched in the face for the better part of four minutes and came out smiling for the second round when he fought Shane Carwin, and Carwin might well have the best punching power in the heavyweight division. Overeem is more diverse, dos Santos and Velasquez are both more technical, but in terms of raw one punch power, Carwin might have the most. Lesnar absorbed four minutes of punishment and said he felt fine in the corner. The mans chin shouldn't be questioned. His problem is completely different, his reaction to getting hit. Wrestlers aren't used to getting hit, and if you watch smaller promotions you see that regularly. A wrestler newer to MMA doesn't react well to getting punched in the face, and that's really what Lesnar is. Learning how to react to getting hit is a skill that requires cage time experience to acquire. There are things that you can do in the gym to help, but it remains something that you need to learn in the cage against a real opponent, and Lesnar just hasn't had the cage time to really have developed those instincts, or the opponents he could take that risk with. It remains a weakness, but hopefully now that he's been training more striking he will at least avoid backing straight up into the cage when tagged.

Cardio will play a big role in this fight, as both men will suffer greatly the more tired they become. For Overeem, technique becomes sloppy when you're tired, you don't have the same energy in strikes, and you react slower when shot in on. For Brock, his takedowns wont be as fast and his grappling strength will be lessened giving Overeem more opportunities to get up from underneath him. Brock has only looked tired in the fight with Velasquez, and I can't say I blame him. Not only did he absorb a lot of punishment, go re-watch that fight and really look at the pace those two fought at. For heavyweights that is a ridiculous pace, and combined with getting hit as often as Brock did it's no wonder he was tired. Overeem's cardio has long been a question mark, as he appeared very tired at the end of his fight with Fabricio Werdum. For as little action as there was in that fight, him getting tired doesn't bode well for him if he hasn't improved in that area. Especially seeing as this is a five round fight, and if Brock is dictating the action and the pace he could probably drag it into the fourth and still be relatively fresh.

Neither man is a decision fighter, Lesnar has gone the distance just once with Heath Herring in a fight where he might have just wanted the extra cage time. Overeem, in 47 fights, has gone the distance just five times, losing three of those decisions. If there is one fight on this card that wont go the distance, I'd bet on this one. Both men fight to finish and don't think about points, and if the judges are needed for this one I'll eat one of my hats.

For me, the big issue here is perseverance. Brock Lesnar perseveres when pushed, Alistair Overeem doesn't. Brock was battered by Carwin, but never gave up where plenty of other fighters would have. He took an absolute beating from Cain Velasquez but kept trying until the referee stopped the fight. Overeem falters when pressured. In his fight with Chuck Liddell in PRIDE he was technically superior to Liddell and was using knees to the body very effectively. Chuck responded by doing what he did best, launching his overhand right at Overeems face. The first few didn't even connect solidly, but Overeem didn't adjust to what was happening and crumbled under the pressure the Iceman brought. Even against Werdum Alistair covered up and backed up when the Brazilian was throwing strikes, and I'd bet anything that Brock hits much harder than Werdum. In addition, if Alistair brings his hands up in a traditional striking guard he can't defend the takedown, and Brock will definitely be looking to use his superior wrestling here.

Brock will need to be careful of the clinch, and if clinching does occur there are two routes Brock must take to be sure he avoids damage from the knees of Alistair. Firstly Brock needs to be sure Overeem's back is to the cage, as it will minimize the movement options for the Dutchman. Secondly, if clinched against the cage Brock needs to be tight chest to chest or down trying for a double leg. Both positions keep Overeem from being able to use significant strikes while giving Brock a chance to secure a takedown. Hopefully Brock has been drilling throws and trips from a close greco-roman position, because chest to chest against the cage with double underhooks is a position he can obtain and he needs to be able to take advantage of it.

At the end of the day I have a hard time picking Overeem to beat anyone who will pressure him, and Brock Lesnar is a pressure fighter. In every fight except his fight with Carwin he has pressured his opponent, and Overeem doesn't handle pressure well. Alistair could win this, this is close to a coin flip in many ways, but given his recent performances I have to pick Brock here. Overeem will wilt under the pressure in the first or second round and succumb to ground and pound.



Well, without the belt obviously but you get the idea.

That wraps up this weeks column, so hopefully I didn't make you late to see the PPV. I'll see you all next week, and until then you've successfully escaped the Guillotine.