The Blueprint 01.13.12: Rock in Rio
Posted by Patrick Mullin on 01.13.2012
The main event of UFC 142 will see a homecoming for UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo, defending his title against an opponent he’s wanted to face for nearly a year in Chad Mendes. Mendes will look to annex the title from Aldo in front of a hostile crowd. Will Mendes retain his undefeated record or will Jose Aldo notch yet another successful title defense in the octagon? Only one way to know, and that’s by reading this column.
Hello once again to all my friends, fans, and followers here on The Blueprint. You know the deal by now, and if you don't well here it is for the first timers. This is The Blueprint, the hottest damn MMA column around today. When there's a big fight coming up and you have questions about who's going to win and how they can do it, this is where you come for answers. Last week we previewed Vitor Belfort against Anthony Johnson, and this week we kick it up a notch with the main event, Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo looking for his fifth title defense against unbeaten Chad Mendes. We'll start off with the man favored by the odds makers, the champion.
Jose Aldo Height: 5'7 Reach: 70 inches Record: 20 Wins (12 KO, 2 Submission, 6 Decision) 1 Loss(Submission) Years Pro: 8 Years
Jose Aldo's Keys to Victory
1) Speed Kills - Perhaps more than any other of Jose Aldo's outstanding abilities, his speed is what mesmerizes most opponents and observers. The champion's double flying knee KO of Cub Swanson in 8 seconds was one of the most impressive and quite frankly scary exhibitions of lethal speed in MMA. Aldo has been able to really nullify the offense of his opponents by simply being too quick and beating them to the strike. This forces them to have to adjust and reset from whatever they had wanted to attempt against him and meanwhile Jose is controlling the fight because of it.
Against a guy like Chad Mendes who clearly is going to want to shoot in and take Aldo down, his speed is going to be a very mitigating element against Mendes' wrestling. To effectively shoot on someone you have to be able to force them to react in the way you're looking to take advantage of. However when you're not the one getting off first it becomes much more difficult, and nobody at 145 is quicker on the draw than Jose. Fights can often be similar to duels, in that whoever draws first has the opportunity to execute. In that regard, just call Aldo the Aaron Burr to his opponent's Alexander Hamilton.
2) Establish the Critical Distance – The old adage in striker vs. grappler match ups is that for the striker to win they can't allow the grappler to get close and get a hold of them. Now while this match up isn't exactly Maurice Smith vs. Mark Coleman in terms of a pure striker vs. grappler match up, I think there is a clear distinction in terms of how these guys like to fight and what they do well. Aldo may be a BJJ black belt but he wants this fight to be reminiscent of a kickboxing match, and Mendes would like as much of this fight to take place on the mat as is humanly possible.
What this means for Aldo is that he's going to have to keep Mendes off of him and not back up and allow him to close in. Aldo has to be the one establishing distance, and he has to do it by forcing Mendes back. The simplest way to do this is for Aldo to exploit his four inch reach advantage and jab the absolute piss out of Mendes. Don't use a little pesky flicking jab, use an authoritative stiff jab that you're either stepping in to or pushing your hips into when its thrown. This will force Mendes to either have to eat a stiff jab, move backward or lean backward out of position to strike or shoot back effectively.
3) Force Mendes to Have to Finish - Certain guys in MMA can finish you at any time. Maybe they have a big time punch like Junior Dos Santos or maybe they have the ability to submit you from any close contact position like Demian Maia. Some guys however no matter how well they do are just not finishers and tend to just dominate a fight but have to leave it to the scorecards. You know those guys, the ones like Gray Maynard who work and try to finish the fight but they just can't really ever do it. Unfortunately for Chad he's been looking more like one of those guys as of late winning his last four all by decision and hasn't finished a fight in nearly two years time, and hasn't strung together consecutive wins inside the distance since his first two bouts.
Now while Jose Aldo was submitted in what is to date his only defeat, he hasn't been close to being finished in a fight since then. If Aldo can establish a clear points lead in this fight and put Mendes in a position where he has to try for a knockout or submission to win this is going to give Aldo a plethora of opportunities. Mendes will be forced to become more aggressive and as a result there will be openings in his defense that Jose will be able to take advantage of. Aldo can also give himself some breathing room and rather than have to force the action, he can simply coast and move and catch his breath, rather than have to be forced to work overtime like he did against Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian in his last two bouts.
Jose Aldo's Perfect Strategy - Jose has allowed his opponents to take the fight away from him because of his recent tendency of fading late. What Jose has hopefully learned is how to properly pace himself in the event of having to go five rounds. What Aldo should do is perhaps be somewhat less active than usual in the first three rounds, instead of working consistently just keeping Mendes on the end of his jab to establish the distance. Rather than use leg kicks which may allow Mendes to take him down, he should use some of the quick flashy strikes that he so impressed everyone with during his early WEC bouts with guys like Cub Swanson and Mike Brown.
This will convince the judges he's in command and while he's building up a points lead, the Mendes corner will try to force a sense of urgency within Chad to finish the fight. In order to do that, Mendes is going to have to take risks and open himself up to flush counterstrikes from the champion. When Aldo is given free-reign to strike someone they usually go down or quit. Mendes has not shown the ability of being able to stand and strike with the champion, or the finishing prowess to take him out when in desperate need to. Forcing his hand in that regard could make this an easier fight for Jose than expected.
Chad "Money" Mendes Height: 5'6 Reach: 66 inches Record: 12 Wins (2 KO, 2 Submission, 8 Decision) 0 Losses Years Pro: 4 Years
Chad Mendes' Keys to Victory
1) Push the Pace - While Mendes may not be known as a finisher, never once have you seen him look even remotely tired after three rounds of action when he works his opponent over to win a unanimous decision. He's faced very tough guys like Michihiro Omigawa and Rani Yahya who are known to really wear opponents down win, lose, or draw and he's looked fresh at the end of each of those bouts. Mendes' seemingly endless gas tank also gives him confidence when he sees his opponent tiring because he knows how much more left he has than his opponent to give.
It's no secret that Jose has struggled to finish looking strong in his last two bouts. He was on his back getting punched at the end of five rounds against Mark Hominick, and Kenny Florian had him sucking wind so hard people thought a tornado warning was in effect. There's no question if the fight comes down to a test of who can outlast the other it will favor the challenger. The way Mendes can do this is come out fast and initiate action forcing Aldo to be on his bicycle and move at seemingly every point to avoid close quarters striking and the threat of a takedown from the former Pac-10 wrestler of the year.
2) Urijah Faber - One of the more remembered images from the only WEC PPV was Urijah Faber struggling to stand up after the beating his legs took at the kicks of Jose Aldo. However what turned out to be one of the more humbling defeats in the great career of Mr. Faber could help create one of, if not THE signature victory in the career of Team Alpha Male training partner Chad Mendes. For all the preparations you can make to fight a man, such as studying fight footage, changing up workout methods based on strategies, etc., etc., there is really nothing that can compensate for actually being in a fight with said opponent.
After spending five agonizing rounds against Aldo, there is no doubt Faber has learned all too well where Aldo's strengths are. However there is undoubtedly a good chance that he and the rest of Team Alpha Male's trainers took a look at the fight afterward and looked at where things went wrong and could have gone right. You would have to imagine a modified gameplan would involve more effort to put Aldo on his back rather than allow him to stay in his comfort zone, and to be honest Chad Mendes is a better wrestler than Urijah is which allows that gameplan to have a better likelihood for success. Who said MMA isn't a team sport?
3) Kill the Body and the Head Dies - It's an old adage, and sometimes we forget that studying the past can be very beneficial to your future. Mendes will have to start the fight standing up with Aldo, and can't afford to try and play the back and forth head shot game while giving away significant advantages in height and reach. Instead where he should focus his striking attack is to Aldo's midsection. While you can move your head and slip side to side, and even bob and weave your head to avoid strikes, your torso is always there for the taking. Do you think fighters like Joe Frazier, Mike Tyson, and Rocky Marciano would have gotten anywhere if they were headhunters? Eddie Alvarez often gives away height and reach and that's why instead of a headhunter he becomes a bodysnatcher and punishes opponents downstairs.
If Aldo is willing to play the striking game, which seems to be the most likely gameplan for him, then he's going to give Mendes the opportunity to work striking offense to his body. Now granted judges of course tend to not give body striking the credit it deserves on the scorecards(punch me in the face all day and I'm ok, hit me in the body and I'm looking for a way out), in that respect you're losing battles to win a war. Beating up someone's body is like putting money in the bank because it's going to pay dividends as the fight goes on, and when you're a stamina machine like Mendes fighting someone who's struggled in five round bouts like Aldo this is what could ultimately win you the fight especially if you can land some hard knee strikes in close quarters.
Chad Mendes' Perfect Strategy - Mendes should start out fast and make his intention to take this fight to the ground clear to Aldo. Walk Aldo down and cut off the cage so he doesn't have that escape room from shots as he would if he's in the center of the octagon. From there every time Aldo jabs he should jab with Aldo to try and gauge Jose's timing so he can get a proper idea of when the best opportunity to shoot for the takedown is. If he can secure the takedown then the strategy becomes obvious, maintain top control while working intelligent ground and pound offense and beat the fighting spirit out of the champion until the fight is over either by the bell or TKO.
Should he fail to secure the takedown early, then just get to the inside and work the rib cage. Throw short hooks inside and while you can get double underhooks bend outward to get some space to throw some hard knees into the abdomen to move Aldo's gas tank closer to the E than the F. You'll discourage Aldo by really making him question how much he has left and at that point a takedown becomes easier to secure by taking his wind and movement away. From there you can take him down and work him over enough to avoid being stood up, clearly win the rounds, and perhaps even attain the stoppage victory that seems to have eluded Mendes in his career.
Final Prediction - Since my illustrious return to 411 MMA, I feel that this fight has been the toughest to make an accurate prediction on. What this fight will come down to are two key factors on each side. Does Jose Aldo have the stamina to go hard every round against a guy like Mendes and win? On the other side has Chad Mendes improved his striking enough to be able to stand and fight with Jose if he cannot secure a takedown and finish? In my mind the difference here is that even though he hasn't looked great as of late, I have seen Jose Aldo go five tough rounds and win, twice. I have not seen enough out of Chad Mendes as a stand up fighter to believe that he can win this fight without controlling Aldo with his wrestling to win a decision.
I don't remember him throwing a single jab against Michihiro Omigawa in their bout which would have made it so much easier for him to land his hard hooks and crosses. He just appeared very green and not a guy who's ready to fight for a championship. He's still a young guy and can become a great fighter in time, but he's not ready for a fighter the caliber of Jose Aldo. You have to also factor in that he's fighting in hostile territory, and going into a PPV main event after fighting on Spike TV prelims. Is the moment or atmosphere going to get to him before Aldo does?
I see Chad coming out and immediately looking to shoot on Jose, but Aldo will be aware of this ahead of time and simply use lateral movement and counter strikes to prevent the takedown. This leaves Mendes the unenviable position of having to strike with the champion and he'll try those looping shots with no jab to set them up or close the distance and he'll eat a variety of counters including jabs, knees, and push kicks that will eventually drop him and he will be finished off on his back via strikes while Aldo retains his championship in round two.
