The Juggernaut MMA News Report 01.12.12: The Jose Aldo is Awesome UFC 142 Preview
Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 01.12.2012
Can Chad Mendes solve the riddle that is Jose Aldo? Will Rumble Johnson knock out Vitor Belfort? 411's Jonathan Solomon runs down UFC 142! Plus read the latest news including Chael Sonnen in Brazil, Cyborg's failed drug test and more!
Only Anderson Silva has been as dominant for as long as Jose Aldo has been heading into this weekend's UFC championship defense. Aldo is now 10-0 since coming to America to fight for WEC and then UFC. In 2011, we saw him go to war with Mark Hominick in Canada and Kenny Florian in Houston. Up next will be a return to his native Brazil, for the first time in nearly five years, to take on a big league wrestler in Chad Mendes.
Mendes was a two-time All American wrestler at Cal Poly State University where he finished second in the NCAA 141-pound Championship in 2008. He turned to professional mixed martial arts a short time later and has been undefeated ever since. As you may expect, Mendes is best known for utilizing that wrestling pedigree to great success in MMA to the extent that he has never been in seriously trying positions in the cage. Since entering the WEC and now the UFC, he has won six fights but finished only one. He's fought strikers like Erik Koch and Cub Swanson, a submission fighters in Javier Vazquez and Rani Yahya and former Japanese star Michihiro Omigawa.
The pattern for Mendes is to see how he uses his striking to set up his takedowns. Once on the ground, it's all she wrote as few have the ability to escape and if they do, they end up again on their back.
So, with the heavy emphasis on wrestlers in modern MMA, how does Jose Aldo expect to win in front of his countrymen? History says he should not find it too difficult. Remember, Aldo fought and manhandled Mike Brown and Urijah Faber in WEC and both were considered immensely strong wrestlers with power in their hands. Brown had no success with his wrestling and was knocked out in the second round. Faber had no success with his wrestling and took a beating for the majority of their five round fight. Since then, Aldo knocked out Manny Gamburyan, battered striker Mark Hominick and dominated Kenny Florian.
Some will talk about how Mendes is the best wrestler in the featherweight division (Joe Warren may argue, but if we're talking UFC only, I can see that). I don't see how that will matter much in this match-up. Aldo is the taller fighter, the bigger fighter and will have a four-inch reach advantage. Plus, Aldo has been training with Gray Maynard (a lightweight) in preparation for this fight. Needless to say, if Aldo can handle himself against "Bully" Maynard, why in the world would he be in trouble against Mendes?
Aldo's takedown defense is already good enough to keep the fight standing early which means Mendes will be forced to box against a lethal striker. I could definitely see Mendes having more success with his shots later in the fight, but there is no way he can submit Aldo and he has not shown consistent knockout power. So, the worst case scenario for Aldo is he does well early on, perhaps he tires out during the third and spends the final two rounds on his back. That's a perfect storm for Team Alpha Male's Mendes and I'm not willing to bet on it.
Assuming Aldo does continue his winning ways in Brazil, who do you want to see him fight next? I will jump ahead and assume the two candidates would shape up as Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) or Hatsu Hioki, if he defeats Bart Palaszewski in February.
Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson
This is a weirdly intriguing match-up because you have the unknown variable in Vitor Belfort mixed with Anthony "Rumble" Johnson's permanent switch to middleweight. Both men are strikers with knockout power while Johnson brings his wrestling skills to the table, too. Certainly, Belfort is a black belt in both Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but he has not submitted anyone in over a decade. Plus, with Rumble not needing to cut the drastic amount of weight he did at welterweight, there should be little concern he'll gas out quickly.
Belfort finally looks like he can settle in and have a great year against some interesting competition. He has not fought three times in a year since 2006 and has not won two fights in a year since 2009. Last year, he was kicked in the face by Anderson Silva and knocked out for being too hesitant. He rebounded in the summer by knocking out Yoshihiro Akiyama (who has since dropped to welterweight). No matter what happens this weekend, Belfort will coach opposite Wanderlei Silva on the debut season of The Ultimate Fighter in Brazil with a fight between the two taking place later. Looking ahead, wins over Rumble and Wanderlei would go a long way into getting Belfort back in the mix for a rematch with Anderson Silva.
Everyone knows what Belfort does in the cage. When he isn't faced with a test like Anderson, he looks to hurt people. He blasted Matt Lindland in 2009, he brought a violent end to Rich Franklin at UFC 103 and did the same to Akiyama. He does not wait around to go to a decision, he intends to finish the fight as quickly as he humanly can. Still, you have to imagine he will be able to have some success in keeping the fight standing if Rumble looks to shoot in.
Johnson is the bigger fighter in height and a four-inch reach advantage. He too, is coming off a quick knockout victory as he nailed Charlie Brenneman with a head kick of doom in October. The only losses on his record have come by rear naked choke submission (to Josh Koscheck and Rich Clementi) and of course, the TKO loss due to the eye injury against Kevin Burns. At the same token, we have never seen his chin put to the test. Against Dan Hardy, he employed a wrestling-heavy strategy to keep the fight on the ground. Obviously, he has never fought anyone near the quality of a Vitor Belfort in the striking game. For Rumble, that's his variable. How will he respond to the speed and power Belfort can bring? Will he be hesitant and look to rely on his wrestling because of it?
I would not be shocked if Johnson tries to stand and bang with Belfort, even having some success. He does have the ability to end the fight with his hands or feet, or with lay and pray tactics. The only issue I have with being too confident with Johnson is his unproven chin in these circumstances.
All Belfort needs is one opening and it's light's out Irene.
Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater
Originally, we expected this fight to feature a pair of international prospects in Silva and Siyar Bahadurzada, but a month ago, the latter was hurt in training and Carlo Prater stepped up. Silva is a 27-year old Brazilian welterweight prospect, one of the best in the world and has gone 13-1 (1 no contest), all in Brazil. He made his UFC debut in August and knocked out Luis Ramos in just 40-seconds.
Prater is just three-years older but has nearly four times the number of professional fights (29-10-1). He has fought all over the place in recent years but went 4-0 in 2011 with all submission victories. It's worth noting that Prater has been fighting in the lightweight division in recent years and this will be his return to welterweight in about three years. Prater went 0-2 in WEC, losing by submission to then-champion Carlos Condit and by knockout to Brock Larson. Perhaps you saw him most recently last February defeating Bryan Travers by anaconda choke on the Strikeforce Challengers, Showtime card. After a long road, this will mark his UFC debut.
While Silva is a black belt in BJJ and Judo, he is also known for having dynamic striking, as evident by his UFC debut. He appears to have the advantage whether the fight is standing or goes to the ground.
For Prater, a fellow BJJ black belt (and Judo brown belt), I'm not sure whether he can unnerve the younger Silva on the ground. With a month to prepare, you may see the veteran try to turn this fight into a brawl in an attempt to remove the technical advantages from Silva's striking. Either that or maybe Prater feels he's just that damn good on the ground and will try his damnedest to get it there at all costs.
The problem may just be that Silva is plain better at Prater at this stage.
OTHER NOTES
- Edson Barboza is a bad dude. His past two fights have each won 'FIGHT OF THE NIGHT' honors and prior to that, he finished his first seven fights. However, England's Terry Etim will fight in his sixth year in the UFC and has proven to be a dangerous submission fighter. Can he bring an end to the Barboza train?
- Yuri Alcantra has been fighting since 2004 so prospect may not be the best phrase to describe him. Still, he's 26-3 with 22 of those wins coming by knockout or submission. He's a brute. The former Jungle Fight champion made his UFC and featherweight debut in Brazil last year and defeated Felipe Arantes. He's matched up against Japanese veteran Michihiro Omigawa who went 1-2 last year. Alcantra's dangerous striking should be on full display here.
- Expected to debut in August, Antonio Carvalho will fight Felipe Arantes this weekend. Carvalho is a 32-year old Canadian who defeated Hatsu Hioki in Japan by decision in 2007. Although his overall record is 13-4, if you count fights in the western hemisphere, Carvalho is 10-1.
- Former top UFC heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga is back after retiring last year. He will fight 27-year old undefeated Edinaldo Oliveira (13-0-1) who happens to train with Junior dos Santos. His last two fights have both ended by first round knockouts.
- Dangerous grapplers match up when Mike Massenzio fights Rousimar Palhares. While both men are BJJ black belts, I'd guess you would be hard pressed to find anyone willing let Palhares anyone near their ankles.
- In exciting lightweight action, Thiago Tavares (knocked out Spencer Fisher in Brazil last year) will fight Sam Stout (knocked out Yves Edwards in Canada last year). This will mark Stout's first fight since the death of his brother-in-law and friend, Shawn Tompkins, last summer.
JUGGERNAUT NEWS BRIEFS
- The main event of UFC Sweden will be Alexander Gustaffson (fighting in his home country) against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The show will air on the Fuel Network in America. Other fights scheduled include Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara, Damacio Page vs. Brad Pickett, Dennis Siver vs. Ross Pearson, Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada and more.
- Dan Henderson turned down a fight with Lil Nog which would have been used to determine the next contender following the Evans/Davis Fox fight. Hendo is waiting to find out whether he'll be offered the chance to fight Jon Jones, pending the outcome of the Fox fight.
- According to Yahoo!, Dana White said if Rashad wins and comes out of the Fox fight healthy, he will fight Jon Jones.
- Cyborg Santos tested positive for stanozolol (a banned steroid) following her Strikeforce fight in December. She has since been suspended for a year by the California State Athletic Commission, fined $2500 and Strikeforce has striped her of the 145 championship. Plus, her win over Hiroko Yamanaka has been overturned to a no contest. The future of the division is also up in the air without its main star (and Gina Carano's return doubtful). For those counting, she claimed she took an over the counter supplement which tainted her urine sample.
- Dana White has said if Chael Sonnen beats Mark Munoz later this month, he will probably fight Anderson Silva in a soccer stadium in Brazil.
- Bjorn Rebney says former champion Eddie Alvarez will not participate in the season six lightweight tournament. Instead, Bellator is negotiating with Dream to bring in their champion Shinya Aoki.
- The UFC announced they will return to Atlanta, Georgia on April 21 for UFC 146. It will be the first card in the state since 2008 when Rashad Evans knocked out Chuck Liddell.
JUGGERNAUT VIDEO OF THE WEEK
Chad Mendes appeared on Dan LeBetard's ESPN show last week talking about a range of things including (like Jon Fitch) expecting to learn pro wrestling when he went to his first wrestling practice.
